when it comes to russia. norway runs that operation from the military headquarters which it recently moved 600 miles north to budda becoming the only country with a military headquarters inside the arctic circle. one big reason for the move to keep better tabs on russia. buried deep inside an arctic mountain they track bombers on giant monitors an image that has memories of 1950s cold war surveillance and lately that has come roaring back to life. nato and russia has always existed but the crisis in ukraine may have fundamentally redefined moscow's relations with the west. >> i think without question the ukrainian crisis pushed the russia west relationship over the cliff and something that is different from what we had for most of the post cold war periods. >> reporter: in a speech putin gave to russia parliament announcing annexation of crime yeah he outlined the new vision for the kremlin. moscow would protect what it continues the sphere of influence. >> one part in which he warned russia's western colleag

-- now, what about opec and russia? russia will not join opec. opec has invite russia. russia has politely declined but russia when convenient and beneficial to russia will cooperate with opec. but what does this all mean? in the last 35 years opec cut production 11 times during any lifetime and on average reduces production by about 1.25 million barrels per reduction. the last time that opec cut production was in 2009. opec invited russia to the meetings. russia went know meetings. opec shared with russia what they wanted to do. and opec decided they were going cut production, making the assumption that russia agreed with opec to cut production. what did russia do? they increased production, they profited from the situation they expanded the market share. opec lost russia. now, today, on november 27th opec is meeting again. and it's not just russia that opec is at war with. it's also the u.s. sail sector. they've been a swing producer in the international market so we're going to discuss why that is northern a bit. what about the putinizeation of gas? people in the wes

a lot of my colleagues in russia are very pessimistic about russia. we have to go to london in all this. i don't share this opinion. i think russia is a huge market and a great place to make money. it is unpredictable, sure. it is bumpy, but it is good. maybe isan government not the most sophisticated government in the world, but i don't see any crazy things going on there. >> what is it that the west doesn't understand about vladimir putin? >> there are some people that think russia wants to go to baltic countries and the balkans , poland. myth.s such a it is impossible. you talk to anybody in russia. we don't even think about that. we would never even go to ukraine, not talking about the other countries. >> that is a very arguable point. >> that russians would go to baltic countries -- americans -- it is a myth. land.e enough we have the biggest country in the world. we have so much land. ukraine.ntioned certainly, the west is very concerned about russia going into ukraine. what is it the west doesn't understand about russia and russia, >> moscow an

he is defending russia and greater russia. do you think he would have more support? >> definitely. the support he gets nowadays is smaller but russia may like it in a certain way. the additional problem for russia is that they used to be a superpower as ussr. they lost that position and now only superpower is the u.s.a. but i also refer to weapons, to the economy, to the moral and social and economic issues as well. they are not the leaders. that is why it is hard for russia to be as important as they used to be. so they need successes. they need to show their power by threatening. they also have to understand the world. that it is not boorishness, not tanks. but intellect and wisdom are the elements of the contemporary world. >> lech walesa added that he believed russian president vladimir putin underestimated the west's willingness to defend ukraine. now, as putin figures out how to untangle himself from the mess he created. okay, up next, forgot politics. oil makes strange bed fellows. i'll take you to the far north where u

>> moscow and russia, we do not need to occupy ukraine or make it part of russia.hat we want, we want them to be neutral. they speak our language. we want them to be neutral. we see them as a buffer between western world and russian world. like finland. neutral. friends with europe and russia. the way russian elites see them. neutral, a buffer. you have poland, baltic countries, you put the missiles there, and so on. we are surrounded. this is ukraine. please. >> maybe they want to be american in that part of the world? >> they want to have the same role. the same life when they go to europe and see the beaches. they see the picture of europe and they want to have the same picture. it is not going to happen. someone from estonia, in 20 years it is under european influence. they are more poor than they used to be in the soviet union. the mother of my wife, she is getting pensions of 200 euros a month. that is a pension. the finland pensioner gets 1000 euros. it is a dream. why 5 times difference in pension wages?ukraine thinks once they are part of the euro, they wi

than russia.i would be more concerned about china than russia. i tell you more. i am obsessed -- in love with obama and his administration and doing for internal policies. gdp is growing. recovering from the credit cycle , brilliant. what they do externally is a disaster. the russian administration, we are so good for external policy. it is great what putin is doing, but he is disastrous for the internal policies. changes would be perfect situation. ♪ >> tonight on "titans at the table," we talk football and the big apple. >> there will be a coin toss right here. >> with the man who is bringing it all together. jonathan tisch, co-chairman of the loews corporation and co-owner of the new york giants. ♪ he was born and raised in a new york family of hotel years. in 1959, his family branched out and bought loews theaters. today the loews corporation has $80 billion in assets that generate $15 billion in annual revenue with interest from everything in hotels, insurance, oil and gas. jonathan tisch run

russia on the move.he next hour with russia and finance that you are experiencing in this february peter fisher will join us. look for that on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television and bloomberg business in the next hour. ♪ >> "bloomberg surveillance," raourbl ruble 70 71 print. futures negative 11. >> my morning note is from joe biden writing about a plan for central america six million young central americans enter the labor force the next decade. if opportunity is not the western -- >> is he running for president? >> it is not clear. he never said he is not but remember last summer when we saw tens of thousands of children from central america turn up he is making the argument the cost of investing in a secure central america is not as high as letting violence fester so the administration will ask for a billion dollars. that is not a lot. >> for these three it is. central america is the biden portfolio. we talk about the speed of the news cycle. the biggest story in the united states the one that u

he was russia's most famous prisoner. president clinton pardoned him in december after more than 10 years. he was an oligarch who became wealthy in the era of russia's post-soviet crony capitalism. when masked men arrested him in 2003, he was russia's richest man and the chairman of yukos oil. he and his partner were convicted on charges of tax fraud and embezzlement in two widely criticized trials. amnesty international declared them prisoners of conscience. his story has come to symbolize russia's turn to authoritarianism under putin. in an impassioned closing argument following his second trial, he told the judge, "much more than our fates are in your hands. here and now, the fate of every citizen in our country is being decided." he has lived in switzerland since his released. last month, he relaunched his foundation that seeks to start a civil movement to challenge putin's grip on power. i'm pleased to have mikhail khodorkovsky at this table for the first time. welcome. i look forward to this conversation. tell me wh

the big concern is the threat of further sanctions on russia and what that impact will be on russia's economy. we have already been seeing the index a trade under perform. the russian rouble strengthening slightly against the u.s. dollar. let's talk more about the impact of russia on equities today. jerry it was interesting, you would think maybe the russia story was a 2014 story. but clearly it's dominating investor discussion in 2015. >> that's true. it's been highlighted as a risk investors see through 2015. naturally there's two sides to the story and these are pressures that slowly build over time. so it is something that is in investors minds for sure. >> you now caution for the european fragmentation. one strategy is to try to create political tension by offering bailouts to peripheral countries. a lot of the economic impact happened barring more significant sanctions which would be a big step forward. >> there's the sectors that stand to be negatively ill pacted the most given the downturn in russia. is it some of the banks that have significant exposure to russia? >> yeah a l

the second thing is russia has 20 years of pain then gains. they have lived better than others and have gotten used to it. this is why vladimir putin is popular. not because of great glories, but when they experienced and enjoyed consumerism. this is why they'll notice it and resent it. vladimir putin said "you stay out of politics vote the way you are meant to vote. let us run things and your life will get better and continue to get better. now it will not. that's when they'll notice that." >> watch this space. i could talk for hours about that. thank you for joining us appreciate it >>> the u.s. is lobbying sanctions at north korea, something as the first aspect of our response to an alleged cyber attack at sony. we tell you why are the >>> president obama is striking bag at north korea over allegations that the communist regime was behind devastating cyber attacks, and ordered the treasury to tighten sanctions that has been in place half a century, it signals out officials and three organizations, cutting them off from u.s. financial system

and this is not happening in russia.his is not happening in russia. >> reporter: you are nearfearing you are humiliated and attacked on a daily basis. >> because of that. >> reporter: with urine poured on their head do you think everyday? >> if this was a widespread thing accepted by the government then perhaps but, again, that is just not happening on any kind of a wide scale. >> reporter: but erin morris sister the fear among russian gays is real. >> i went to russia in november 2014 and spoke to dozens or hundreds in the lbgt movement looking to leave. >> reporter: and u.s. judges think it's legitimate. read this to me. >> as of september 20th, 2014, they granted asylum in the united states. >> reporter: although the united states does not keep track of gay asylum seekers he knows a growing number accepted here and his friend is hoping his chance will come too. >> i'm excited and nervous and emotions. >> reporter: what will you do if you don't get asylum? >> i will get it. >> reporter: for nadia and partner leaving he

this was russia's 9/11. russian historian yuri felshtinsky has written a book on the apartment bombings. >> we have to understand that the whole country is very nervous. the feeling is that every several days or, like, once a week, a building is going to be blown up. >> narrator: all of a sudden a prime minister few russians had heard about was everywhere swearing revenge. >> narrator: putin would point to rebels in chechnya, where a separatist movement was holding ground. >> the russian officials said that there was a chechen trail in the apartment bombings. not proof of chechen involvement; a chechen trail. it wasn't clear what that meant. but it was used in order to justify a new invasion of chechnya. (explosions) >> narrator: and putin's invasion would be brutal. (people crying) >> narrator: the man who waged it was a new national hero. >> he quickly became the most popular politician in russia even though before the apartment bombings, he was believed to have had no chance to succeed yeltsin as presiden

serbia should ally itself with russia side by that's his vision of the future -- ally itself with russia side-by-side. that's his vision of the future. >> we want a greater serbia with normal jobs and wages for people. that's my vision for the future of serbia. >> most serbians share the dream of a better future, but the majority would prefer that future to remain allied with europe. >> divided loyalties for serbia. is it a good idea to let serbia, with its links to russia, into the eu? get in touch with me on twitter and let me know what you think. now to poland, which was one of the few european countries to escape the financial crisis relatively unscathed. the economy has kept growing, and having pushed through tough economic reforms in the 1990's, it is often held up as a model for other countries to follow. one of the reasons poland are so economically competitive is that wages are low, and this means many people are struggling to make ends meet and often are forced to leave poland altogether to earn money elsewhere in europe. >> for eight months now, christina and marianne have had

>> not russia alone but because of the impact of the european economy for russia. there's so many good news around the rest of the world. with strong u.s. economy was solid, china. it's by far the biggest for me. >> that's interesting, isn't it? the question is whether the low oil prices the economic decline makes the situation worse as far as nationalism is concerned. great to chat with you. we'll be talking more about russia. we have him later on in the show and we'll talk to him about this. a lot of focus on turkey and the central bank policy. we'll be talking to the finance minister right after the break. stay with us. we're back in two. [ male announcer ] meet jill. she thought she'd feel better after seeing her doctor. and she might have if not for kari, the identity thief who stole jill's social security number to open credit cards destroying jill's credit and her dream of retirement. every year, millions of americans just like you learn that a little personal information in the wrong hands could wreak havoc on your life. this is identity theft. and no one h

yet, the finance minister pretty much blamed all of russia's problems on russia.ave a listen. >> russia is angry to difficult to be. is responsible for the most part. his sanctions exist in russia because of admissible attitude in ukraine. i do not know of consequences russia will draw from the ratings cut but if they draw discussion that would be a good thing. >> i do not think anybody can take what what happened on thursday at the meeting. what i will point out is with had this conversation before sanctions and sanctions. economic sanctions would be a pretty big step. expanding the list at some of the new countries of talked about it to include more of the separatist and more russian individuals it seems like that would be a pretty good face-saving maneuver for the eu after this point. they have to do something. >> and the oil price? >> not helpful. brent is down. wti is down. we had a guest saying that there's no investment in oil oil could go to $200. one of those random comments. i tweeted after that. and the gas price could also go to $25. you know, inventor

an side russia's troubled economy. largest bank said he wants to see what will happen to the roble, you have to see what will happen with oil prices. >> the forecast for the rub and the oil price. le and the oil price [indiscernible] >> breaking this hour. we are watching the world's largest jewelry maker. the latest trading figures. ♪ >> welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. >> i am anna edwards. >> i am manus cranny. >> the start of the program and our top story. in an exclusive russia's finance minister says the country is heading that way didn't recession if oil stays at around $45 a barrel. -- the rush is headed into a recession if oil stays at around $45 a barrel in >> the current situation and talking about $45 per barrel and expected activity for all year long -- and expect that to be for all year long. >> is $45 a barrel what you're working on now? >> is one of the possible scenarios. a possible scenario that generally that should be a little bit higher. in case it would be the price the decline would be b

if we start to see defaults in russia i think that would rattle russia again.here would be 17% rates. i think that's not going to be a good place. i think a much better place would be india. we saw the ruble selloff. we saw the turkish lira selloff. it made no sense. those are the markets that should get a boost, which took a pounding. >> let's talk about the currency situation. we were looking at this chart. we saw the fall in brent. i saw a different chart. when we talk about russia getting hit, how much of a buffer is the currency? >> i think russia has further to fall. i don't think we should get into that market. emerging markets generally we are still keeping well away. if i had to, those are the countries i would go for the ones which should get a benefit if we look at gdp growth from falling oil, and russia is not one of them. the countries which really gets a big booster places like the philippines. i think those are the markets we should be looking at. >> when you look at russia and the rate of 17%, is that going to do the damage? >> historically the

russia is not in the position -- really, the animosity between the united states, and russia, is thathe pitch which you didn't find really you have to go back to 1985. the other thing is that in the past, antiamericannism in this opportunity, is the very top -- the arrange russian wasn't really afraid of the united states really respected america, now the antiamericannism is the whole of society, and that's a real problem. >> so even though there will be economic problems we will still see the entrench minute in ukraine, no resolution. >> they can't withdrawal, you can't withdrawal from eastern ukraine, you have to find a draw where the separatest get something and kiev gets something. because the key factor would be money, and in the end powerful money. and therefore, if russia loses more and more money from the drop of the oil prices and in trade and so on, then they will have to take very drastic decisions. but at the present they will -- they will stay we can stand up to the rest of the world, they can only do that for a period f oim, perhaps as year. and then some people think it

>> no, it is an invasion by russia.el group that is being reported by russia on the outside. just in the past couple of weeks, you've seen 200 armored vehicles come in from russia in the ukraine. you've also seen over 2000 troops come in from -- from russia into the ukraine. it's a serious issue and we have to deal with it seriously. i disagree that putin does not want to be seen as a threat. >> he does want to be seen as a threat. >> putin actually does not want to be seen as a threat. he desperately wants to be part of the world economy. his economy depends on the world economy. and he would very much like to be seen as a member of the world community. >> he wants to be taken seriously. >> buddy's not someone to have lunch with. >> -- >> but he's not someone to have lunch with. >> if there is a ground invasion, and there is anti-of evidence from at least from u.s. intelligence. what should the response be? is the rest going to equip the ukrainian rebels? is nato going to go in? >> we should definitely take a strong re

foreign ministers have agreed to extend current economic sanctions against russia. it follows the killing of 30 people in the town last week by shelling, thoughts have been carried out by russian backed separatists. now the sanctions against russia were due to expire in march, but will now continue on for another six months. the economy, of course, has already been hit by those sangs. the ruble has lost around 50% of it's value against the u.s. dollar during the past year, while inflation is up to 11%. and earlier this month the internationally fund forecast that the economy will contract by 3% this year, the president government has responded by announcing a three year plan of public spending cuts. savings from both cuts will fund a $35 billion rescue package. well the vice president of the commission warned that more action will be taken if the things in ukraine don't improve. >> but of one thing i can be happy to note, is that we kept our unity which is as we have always said our strength, and we have thousand that the european union is ready to take further meas

but another big story has been russia. the rouble is extending losses against the dollar with 30 minutes to go before the central bank decision. jeff is live in moscow speaking to experts on what to expect with this highly anticipated decision, jeff. absolutely. we have a little over 15 minutes before we get the announcement here. the market is inclined to think there may be an announcement to cut rates here. i have to say that would not be consensus at all. the consensus is we do not see a change at this meeting and the economists that hold that view suggest there's still risks as far as rouble weakness and the inflation threat is concerned in this economy. i spoke to the russian finance minister and his opinion is rates should be coming down soon. let's listen. >> translator: current interest rates do not go along with the fundamentals of the russian economy. so we hope the interest rates will be lowered but this is the confidence of the central bank: we cannot influence the decisions. >> so he thinks it's appropriate fo

. >> russia defiant. putin says sanctions araren't having a significant effect on the kremlin. >> things are not working in political terms. they may have been effect on the economic area but not political. >> google sales fall short as competition on mobile intensifies, but a happy holidays helps amazon beat estimates. >> assad a shakeup. the arab states nuking fires his economic officials one week after taking the throne. ♪ >> hello, welcome to countdown. >> also coming up, super bowl sunday. can kim kardashian help advertisers score a touchdown during america's biggest sporting event of the year? the newly elected greek prime minister is promising no surprises as he goes face-to-face with european officials for the first time. >> he assured martin schultz that greece will not make any unexpected moves regarding its finances. >> that sent the stock market in athens for a rebound after lunging to lows not seen since the peak of the debt crisis. >> hans nichols is in berlin with more on the story. ring us

what we have done is to consistently isolate russia on this issue and raise the costs that russia confrontsnow, when you say that we should take a different approach, julie, i don't know exactly what you're referring to. i've been very clear that it would not be effective for us to engage in a military conflict with russia on this issue. but what we can do is to continue to support ukraine's ability to control its own territory and that involves a combination of the economic pressure that's been brought to bear in sanctions, the diplomatic isolation that has been brought to bear against russia. and as important as anything, making sure that we are continuing to provide the support that ukraine needs to sustain its economy during this transition period and to help its military with basic supplies and equipment. as well as the continuing training and exercises that have been taking place between nato and ukraine for quite sometime. we are deeply concerned about the latest break in the cease-fire and the aggression that these separatists with russian backing, russian equipment, russian financi

i'll start with russia. as most of you know russia has had more than ten years in investments and modernization across their strategic nuclear forces. now, this is not about a continuation of the cold war. the cold war is over. and we know how that all turned out. this is about emerjging capability at a time of significant concerns in russia's execution of their near and abroad strategy. for example, president putin continues to stress the importance of russia's strategic forces, seen with his active messaging in every conceivable way, their speeches, press conferences and robust national and international media campaign. you also may have seen news of russian strategic bombers penetrating the u.s. and allies air defense identification zones on multiple occasions this year. or perhaps you saw president putin on youtube ordering his commanders into action during major strategic force exercises both in october of 2013 and during the ukraine crisis in may of 2014. russia also has significant cyber capability, w

this oil price is hurting russia.e spent most of the year talking about russian natural gas, but they don't make near as much out of what they sent to europe, as they do to oil. so whatever the reason behind the develop this oil is it enough to really hurt russia? >> first of all, no. the fact is that russia's approval rating for president putin is in the high 80s now. they go up because of sanctions on russia, and up because of demonization of the united states. putin more in the corner, what is he going to do in much more nationalism. economically there is no question, russia doesn't want to be isolated, they will forge deals that are economically beneficial to the chinese 20 -- to help them out. but north korea was the deal that the chinese loved for quite a while. now they are becoming a bit of a problem. the chinese sort of own north korea, and when north korea does something dangerous, the chinese don't have the ability to reign them in. and do the chinese really want to own the russian problem. they look to be

s&p had downgraded russia to below investment grade. it's interesting this morning as you see the ruble as weekend over the last hour and many people thought it could be much worse perhaps falling more than 70 to the dollar. you have to wonder, is the central bank in their intervening. they have 379 billion dollars worth of reserves, they spent 132 of them last year and want to keep their powder dry. why is this all happening, we spoke with morris cramer a.k.a. mr. scissorhands as he is sometimes known, the russian reserves are puny in comparison to the obstacles. >> on the one side we have the fall in oil price and the ruble taking more pain from the last 24 hours and then we have to think about sanctions as well. do you think they will be less inclined to increase sanctions, are other people doing it for them, france has been one country that was more accommodative in its language toward russia recently and yet we spoke with the france finance minister yesterday and he had nothing good to say russia that they basically got themselves

russia has also publicly stated their caper ability -- capability -- russia's leaders openly maintained that russia's armed forces have satellite weapons and conduct anti-satellite research. china is modernizing their strategic forces. they are already making progress . there's affected another missile capable of carrying they are also continuing their testing and their integration of new ballistic missile submarines, providing china with the first strategic nuclear deterrent. and i am sure you are aware they are also developing multidimensional space capabilities supporting their anti-access-access denial campaign. with more than 50 nations operating satellites in space it is problematic to see china conducting missile tests designed to destroy satellites as we saw back in july of this year and that event in 2007 when their anti-satellite weapons created thousands of pizzas -- thousands of pieces of debris, endangering space stations of all nations. they also made headlines with exploitation of computer networks. north korea continues work to advance their nuclear admissions -- ambitio

. >> vladimir putin's russia kicks off the new year engaged with a new cold war in the u.s. falling oil prices are only part of the story. plus, the white house takes action against kim jong-un's north korea for the cyber attack on sony. will it much of a sdns. i'm in for ali velshi and this is "real money".." >>> changing fortunes make out winners and losers in the global economy. for the first time since the recession, the united states is poised to be the engine of global growth not china, not emerging markets. the u.s. economy is expected to grow 3.1% this year the labor market is picking up steam, and we've seen a small but significant uptick in u.s. wages. meanwhile, china's spectacular growth story is not such a page turner anymore with many expecting the economy to grow roughly 7% this year. that's still a lot higher than the u.s. and it's a far cry from the double-digit growth china has seen in recent years. the european union, well, it's just plain stagnating. 1.8% economic growth is forecast for the eu this year. in response the european central bank chief said to

the oil and gas prices are high, russia is ok and if they collapse, russia is in big difficulty.hat lack of diversification has revealed the problems it has got as a result of these much lower oil and oil -- gas prices. >> they seemed to stumble from one problem to another. where is the new normal for oil? usually dictates where the ruble goes? >> nobody has forecast a oil prices protect really over the past few months. does particularly over the past few months. changing attitudes toward being a swing producer and worried about oil prices being too high and encouraging alternatives. the saudi reserves of the next few decades is one factor. the second fast -- factor is faster demand is softer than expected especially emerging market demand and everybody is talking about the u.s. being result -- up to the rest is darkness rather than life and true in the emerging markets and consumers over the past few years and that story has gone wrong. >> there is a double edged sword and your place like turkey and india that could benefit from the lower oil prices. it is not all -- >> not all

russia is a big country. russia hits over its weight militarily, matters a lot geopolitically. but economically, it is very small compared to china. >> it is primarily energy. >> and that is not a great place to be today. >> imagine a scenario of chinese-russian cooperation. what would it be, how would it play out, what might come out of it? >> one thing that comes out of it is the ability of the united states to punish or isolate russia for transgressions n becomes -- transgressions becomes nil. clearly that means, provide them with a lot of energy and prices that would be more favorable to china. seldom even more arms than they've had. russia already is the largest arms dealer for china. it would also mean supporting chinese positions in international organizations. >> don't they -- on international issues anyway? it seems to me that when the security council comes up and russia is going to veto, the chinese are there with them. >> it is largely true. the chinese would much rather generally be able to abstain as opposed to veto. they don't like to do no votes by themselves. i

russia's earnings last year missed estimates. the company is forecasting that revenue and profit will increase in 2015. rcohe is the world's biggest seller of cancer drugs. jpmorgan's fx traders gained on the day of the swiss national bank decision to scrap the franc ceiling. they also said citigroup, deutsche, and barclays suffered trading losses. the chinese government is accusing alibaba of lax oversight of merchants. the government says alibaba has a credibility crisis and is accusing alibaba of allowing merchants to operate without business licenses. alibaba's spokesman said the company could not immediately comment. we will have more later. also coming up, greece's new government gets underway. stay with us for more on what is on the agenda and why greece's first clash with europe may be on sanctions over russia. you can see live pictures of mr. tsoipras meeting in athens. we have more coming your way on that story. ♪ >> welcome back to "the pulse." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. greece's new government gets to work

don't forget that that some 20 million muslims living in russia. "eastward into central asia eventually even to send john to the direct detriment both of russia and china. america, russia and china should therefore jointly consult about how they can best support the more moderate middle east states and pursuing either a political or military solution and different ways america russia and china should encourage turkish engagement irani corporation which is much needed and can be quite valuable, saudi restraint somewhat overdue, egyptian participation in seeking, if possible, some form of compromise in syria and the elimination of the original extremists. and the three major powers should bear in mind that their will be no peace in the middle east if boots on the ground come mainly from the outside and especially from the us. the era of colonial supremacy in the region is over. finally, with the presidents soon embarking on a trip to india, let me simply expressed the hope that the us will not unintentionally intensify concerns in beijing that the us

>>> plus, financial crisis for vladimir putin's russia. with world of the world turning its back on moscow, the kremlin now desperate to keep the country from collapsing. >>> and finally, would you buy a house that folds into a cube? let's get to it. >>> first from the fox news deck what happens if you deal with the terrorists? the terrorists who call themselves a state, the islamic state. sounds like jordan is about to do some negotiating and maybe a prisoner swap that would set a notorious al qaeda killer free. right now there's no comment from any u.s. official. today, the major dane january government signalled they are willing to free the terrorist from death row in order to save this hostage, the one over here in a white shirt. he's is pilot. united states policy bans any negotiating with terrorists. but the state department spokeswoman will not say whether jordan should follow that same standard. she said there is a range of reports out of jordan as if the country's intentions aren't perfectly clear. >> that is our policy. i don't t

the squirmish with russia cost europe. they had an economy over the last few years that lurched and recessed. they are not in a good place. >> and radicalism spilling to europe and the united states. not only social instability. then you have all of this politics within europe. greece is now a primary election for the germans and domestic politics. germany has become a big issue for the greeks. it is a bad thing. clearly what we are seeing is that all of these countries, greater pop u lis that is making them turn inward and creating tougher relations. the single thing that is working well in the teeth of the economic crisis. so, you know, i'm a political scientist. the fact was the economist were worse three years ago. the politics are better. today the economics are okay, they are not great. the politics on every front massively worse. for us in 2015, the politics of europe are the number one. >> it's the dark underbelly on oil business never get the chance to see it. in 2 minutes you meet the foot soldiers smuggling oil

one of the things that the book does is to talk about how imperial russia was not like the rest of russiat had created a fiscal state there were a lot of details on how this function and how it was able to become a great power. and another thing the book does is to show that the underground revolutionary movement that is celebrated was a tremendous failure and that there was a success that culminated in 1917 and 1918. there were protests in some cases, growing protest among factories. but the revolutionary movement and party was the party of lenin and others it was a colossal failure. and so the book also goes through how russia almost created fascism for italy and germany which came as he said from the russian empire, and there was a movement it was very alive and russia. this is another aspect of the book that was illuminated. it shows how the russian state did not collapse in world war i. it was only the autocratic part of the state that collapsed the russian state function and it was the revolution that destroyed the russian state. the book also shows how the provisional government, t

russia already is the largest arms dealer for china. it would -- it would also mean supporting chinese positions in international organizations. rose: a page on international issues anyway? on iran? it seems when the security council comes up and russia is going to veto the chinese are there with them. >> it's interesting. rose: true? >> it's largely true. i would say the chinese would rather generally be able to abstain as opposed to veto. they don't like to do "no" votes by themselves if they can avoid it. i am talking more about the creation of otiations the strengthening of the shanghai organization as a counterweight to nato. the creation of the sillythe silk road over land organization that is meant to really drive infrastructure, that will make china stronger and clearly move towards internal eurasia. those are things that are inherently competitive to organizations like the imf and the world bank and -- >> does china want to become an alternative reserve currency of the world or some other alternative? >> they certainly don't wa

is russia an honest broker? >> no it's not. it is good that russia is talking about a political solution and good that we get asaad and those around him to talk politics. that's one thing they don't want to do. the majority will not change. the initiative that the russians started needs to be vastly improved. i hope they learn the lessons from what will be a pretty failed effort but we have some members of the opposition there, but a lot of those have been chosen by the bashar al-assad regime itself. at the same time russia is giving credence but there is a lot to lose. a disintegrating state is not of interest. of course syria again has - or the impact of a syrian war surfaced in a border squirmish between israelis and haez on the southern border with lebanon, armed groups saying it's in response to an israeli attack on its fighters. what do you make on the incident. was it a squirmish or is it a wider escalation. >> the next two hours will tell. the israelis will hit back. other parts of hezbollah may be the suburbs of beirut