ryan chilcote is our man on the ground. how are we looking in terms of a deal? the 50-50 bridge. do you think they will get their brexit? ryan: i don't know. it took a whole hour before it sank in. that was a big in our last conversation when you mentioned whether i have another shirt to wear for the following day? you probably figured i wore the same shirt as it were yesterday. no, i do not have another shirt. we spoke with the italian prime minister as he left and he says he is less confident than he was coming in to the summit that there will be a u.k. deal is the reason is simple. i would give you an example. imagine you have negotiated a one million pounds contract with the bosses. in the draft agreement between it'snd the boss, it says got a four-year term. you think you've got it in the back or if the boss is resistant at the last minute, they are feigning it for theater. you go in there and say you want a 13 year deal. that's what david cameron did. with this so-called emergency brake. worked from eu would have to wait before they are entitled to benefits

ryan chilcote there.y with the brexit negotiations between david cameron and his fellow eu leaders. fx strategist for bloomberg first word, richard jones. deal today? richard: i think something has to happen. if wetically, it's -- don't get a deal, where does that leave the united kingdom? he said he's going to have a referendum. he's locked into that. if he doesn't get a deal, what happens in that referendum? mark: how much of the move in sterling is down to pure brexit fear? we talked about applied volatility yesterday. highestnd, volatility since 2011. how much is down to the brexit? how much is other factors? richard: in volatility, a lot of it is down to brexit. we could get a lot of different things happening. mark: what about the daily move? richard: i don't think there's a lot priced into the currency. realistically, interest rate differentials have been driving the pound very much. i think brexit, the whole idea has been put on the back burner, but it is becoming real now. going forward, it's goi

he spoke exclusively with bloomberg's ryan chilcote earlier today in london.here isve to believe a possibility you will not necessarily go back above 100 ever. , and i've genuinely been in the business for far too long. 104 ae already been above very few number of those years. and china has changed. huge growth in the middle 2000. this is something that is very dramatic. happened at a time when the oil industry was not investing. happened at a time when we did not have shale. that growth and pool of resources has changed. you said oil prices at $48 per barrel. the year after in the year after that, where do we move? >> i think we do imagine a band. we would naturally see this. i think we do believe something like 60, you can bet we would bring back on some of the oil fields that will probably go out. discussion huge about that. i do not think the oil industry quite understands all of the economic. or us, it is clear a lot of the oil shutdown in the next year or so because it is simply too low of a price. some of it could come back. i do not think we understand

plenty more on that exclusive interview that ryan chilcote did coming up next.t, janet yellen appears before the house financial services committee. we consider what investors wanted here and why they may be disappointed coming up next. ♪ francine: breaking news from rosneft's ceo. ryan chilcote just spoke to him. we would do a quick check on oil. it was rising a touch. gaining 2.2%. sayingke to the ceo, they will not cut production. an: if you're thinking that the world's largest oil producers are about to cut in a coordinated fashion, perhaps after my conversation with ahead world's largest public at traded oil producer, , isbasically he said what iran going to cut, is brazil going to cut? he pointed out saudi arabia has increased its drilling capacity by 40%. he said we're engaged in the battle for market share. countries ifour just outlined. we will continue to supply them with oil in those markets. francine: we are not expecting any coordination. coordination would mean 15 or 20 nations would come together and decide to cut production. h trying toc defend t

ryan chilcote our man on the oil mission. we will talk numbers. down with bob myself to chew over the oil market's barons. ♪ manus: 6:43 in london. let us get the bloomberg business flash. np has posted a 52% decline in fourth-quarter earnings, missing estimates. that is writing down goodwill in the italian unit, while getting a revamp to boost profit and free up capital. france's biggest bank fell to six hundred 65 million euros, from 1.38 billion a year earlier. toyota has raised profit forecasts after surging sales of the sport-utility vehicle and the lexus luxury model. that puts it on track to become the first japanese company to reached ¥3 billion. taking a hit in extended trades, that is after the company forecasted revenue of about 3.6 oh you and dollars for this year, missing estimates. a slowdown incing display advertising and display marketing tools. >> our strategy in 2016 will increasingly focus on an hour set of high value, with the goal of strengthening leverage across our entire or folio businesses. our roadmap will be supported by

ryan chilcote and send the french, thank you for joining us.britain's eu negotiations, we will speak to the city of london's corporation's chairman who is fearful of a brexit. ♪ manus: it is 6:50 here in london and 7:50 in bloomberg. caroline: hsbc has decided to keep its global headquarters in london saying that the u.k. is an important angle of the connected economy. the decision was passed unanimously at the board meeting on sunday. hsbc has been there for 23 years and says her mating there is the best option for those customers and shareholders. thanks are taking a hatchet to their bonded trading and the biggest casualties seem to be those with must experience. what can the financial industry more than 10 years. that supporting the data file by a headhunter. there are claims that the former volkswagen bus was told about the emissions cheating devices as long ago as may 2014. the german banks as a vw staffer wrote to the ceo saying the company could not provide an escalation for elevated nitrogen levels in the u.s. regulars would investigate

ryan chilcote joining us for that fascinating interview.p next, it is the law of diminishing returns. how the bank of japan's measures are you -- losing their effectiveness. we are live from tokyo next. ♪ the conference call. the ultimate arena for business. hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. the only problem with conference calls: eventually they have to end. unless you have the comcast business voice mobile app. it lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. i've never felt so alive. make your business phone mobile with voice mobility. comcast business. built for business. in london.6:30 here currencyna's foreign reserve has fallen to a four-year low. 2015 asng a slump from the people's bank of china works to shore up u.n. and oili arabia minister -- the saudi arabia oil minister talking with his counterpart in venezuela. north korea launched a rocket over the weekend. clinton stopped short of assigning an outsider. the broncos have one super bowl 50. -- won

jon: ryan chilcote, thank you very much. the energy players clinging to their dividend.g can they do that? let's turn over to rolls-royce. i'm reading benjamin katz's story. shares surging. investors shrugging off cutting the dividend in half. ben katz joins us now. if the energy players did this in the short-term, it would be bad, but it is a restructuring effort they are celebrating. you wonder if that is the message in the bottle for a whole load of sectors. >> good question. the ceo has made quite a pitch. he said to the company, we need cash for the next two years. roles has, unlike some of the energy sectors, roles is quite certain they will achieve quite large growth. we are seeing increases in airplanes and aircraft sales. rolls supplies the engines. that will inevitably grow. it is just a matter of getting to the other side of this crisis. ben katz, great to have you with us. 13%,tock is up by over rolls-royce, this morning. big question, are central banks to blame for the stock selloff? david bloom told me they are getting mixed signals. i will give you some of

ryan chilcote caught frozen. enjoy it while it lasts. whilel be back with ryan it lasts. that is the big story. we will get back to hear what he has to say. the migration story versus the brexit story is fascinating. the front pages of european nations today, very different spins. plenty more coming up on today's show. we will bring you with interview with a foreign affairs spokesman of spain. we will ask him why spain -- whether spain can finally get a government. then we will talk oil producers after the story that iran has kind of support of the saudi-rus sian pact. as europeang day leaders gather in brussels. we will consider whether the u.k. prime minister will get 27 countries to agree to his proposals. ♪ guy: nearly two months after an inconclusive general election, spain is yet to form a government. i'm pleased to say we can now speak to the parties foreign affairs spokesman. who joins us now from a trade. good morning. thank you for taking the time to talk to us. the question everybody is asking themselves is what would it take for the party to join the governmen

thee does this leave producers gekko ryan chilcote standing by.american platinum having a great day. the ceo of the company, the joinss largest producer, us now. a little bit further south of us. today you announced you would for new projects on hold until the platinum price improved. what kind of price to you need before you say we should bring those back online gekko $925 for announce a platinum right now. >> certainly not enough now. other than look at what the absolute price would be, looking at new market demands. we have pretty much placed the growth capital markets on hold. had in thee execution, we have taken a look at that and looked at the cash outflow and said look in the current environment, given the cash outflow and the combination does not need additional nuances coming to the market, we said we would put this on maintenance until 2017. two largest peers have put projects on hold but you have not done that. does this include the need for you at any point in the future to go back to investors and --se more capital iago >> raise more

ryan chilcote is here. what do we get from shell? known the numbers would be bad, but what did we get specifically? ryan: the market likes what it got. that drop in profit is, first off, bang in line with expectations. the street was looking for $1.8 billion in adjusted profits and that is what they got. we saw a lot of misses, bp reporting a drop. not a bad performance in terms of managing the decline in the oil price. beyond that, i think we have a little bit of a window into what's going on. he saw they were not able to replace their reserves, and that is part of the issue when you cut back spending and stop exploring, or explore less. and that's pretty much it. that captureste it perfectly -- knows the prizes, which is good news. -- no surprises, which is good news. investors like the results even more even though statoil was a mess, even though earnings came in at half what they were supposed to be. programthat is this they announced which would go through 2017. the whole idea is this is what you do if you want to maintain your d

joining us with the latest is bloomberg's ryan chilcote. at are they doing to counter the downturn? ryan: we call it the shreare less, spend less strategy. they are cutting back their spending plans over the next 18 months, by 23%. the big thing is the dividend, cutting it for the first time ince bhp burst with billiton 2001. investors expected them to cut the dividend by half -- cutting it for the first time since bhp in 2000ith billiton wine. they have done away with the whole idea of ever greater dividend payments. in merged with billiton at 2009. francine: where does most of the income from? is bhp in a league of its own or does it have the same problem as some of their rivals? ryan: they have their own need problems which is perhaps the most compelling part of the whole commodity story. netink if you look at the income statement, that is the most interesting. 5.5ly what happened was a billionbillion -- $5.5 loss. that was because of $8.4 billion in impairment. .2 billion charge on their u.s. shale assets. what distantw, wishes bhp billi

ryan chilcote spoke to the ceo bob dudley. have big projects going on and we don't want to threaten the growth of the company but we will manage that capital tightly. ryan: you have been guiding the company to $90 billion this year. at the end of 2016 where do you see the number coming in? bob: the low end of that guidance. ryan: that would be contingent on what? rred this year we have defe a couple of big projects. there maybe a couple of those this year as well. bob: if you look at your --ryan: if you look at your leverage, a group to 21.6%. that is an increase of 5% over just one year. where do you anticipate it being years from now? before the accident in the gulf of mexico, it was between 20 and 30%. we took it down and we are drifting back up to where it historically has been. i'm comfortable with the 21%. ryan: where do you see it in a years time? bob: i don't know. we will see what the results are. second quarter is very tough and choppy. supply and demand are tightening in the second half of the year. i think we will s

ryan chilcote is in brussels with the latest are and where is cameron running into resistance? an: all over the place. first, it was the eastern europeans. they weren't happy with the idea of caps on migrant benefits. then it was the french unhappy with the idea of the u.k. getting out of the eurozone financial regulation. then it was the belgians about the language, moving away from the idea of an ever closer union. now, according to one member of the european parliament we spoke with, it is the greeks. the greeks upset that some of their neighbors to the north have been stealing off their greece to dealg with the refugee crisis on their own. according to the european parliamentarian we spoke with, the greeks have threatened the deal. the problem is the greeks are starting to threaten migration with this issue. >> what is the probability of a deal on the u.k.? >> if the greeks stick to that veto, it is finished today. we have to come back in two weeks time. if the greeks don't do it then, the deal is impossible. ryan: the greek delegation has denied that. they say they are not

in a rare interview, the vitol ceo ian taylor told ryan chilcote it still matters to the oil market. of very important countries. it is relevant. ryan: wide. -- why? they have not done it recently. what you think about the idea that opec countries could get together with non-opec countries and cut? do you see that happening? >> it has always been a possibility. it is only fair to stress that it seems to be the case a year ago. is saudi's said the market getting long and we are having to work together with everyone providing everyone takes their fair share of any change. obviously, it was not possible to do it then. opec was looking for cooperation inside opec as well as non-opec and that has not happened. it is not easy. the countries have different oil interests. of a big probability deal between opec and non-opec countries is what? >> come on. ryan: we want numbers. againstbly slightly 60-40 against. it is a real possibility. ryan: those people are very dismissive of that idea. the oil market took off when the russian oil ministry -- minister said there may be some corporation in fe

ryan chilcote joins us now, to has been monitoring bhp in the story -- it's reading across very clearlythe mining sector/ ryan: what's interesting is that their earnings come in on thursday but today they are announcing additional charges. what i find interesting is that each of these commodities producers, as is the case here, traders are reflected in their own way. their revenue comes from coal, and what they are saying is that their press assumptions for coal contracts going forward were too high, and they are scaling them back for thermal coal in 2020, verus what they were saying earlier. if you look at consensus brokers it is at $69, so they are getting a bit more conservative. that pretty much tells the story. there was a little bit of asset write-down as well. they own a stake in one coproducer, but if you look -- in one colal producer, but generally speaking, the traders i have been talking to -- all the traders need to come clean on their balance sheets, and this feels like it is part of that. guy: let's talk about billiton. -- is itweird question a materials company in a minin

get ryan chilcote in the hot seat. it is hot around this table. : around 7:00, because they never happen on the nose. and the big news that we are looking for is, what are they going to do to protect their credit rating? to protect their balance sheet? they have a story out today saying they're going to sell part of their state, that is the spanish gas distribution and retail business. that is something that they have said they will only do, if they have to, to defend their investment grade. it is part of the company's plan to sell over 6 billion euro worth of assets by 2020. and the problem here is that they did the second-biggest deal in the industry after the rice started slumping 2014. that was the acquisition of talisman energy. does bode well for the future, or has a proven ominous? it was not a great thing for them. investors are concerned about what was basically a $13 billion deal. it raised the debt levels to levels not seen for 27 years. and you look at that year price, manus, we're talking about it there. worst performer amongst the six

hope not so tired, ryan chilcote for in brussels. we just saw david cameron arrive. is sounding optimistic despite his exhaustion. what did he have to say? ryan: yeah, but i think the key point he made was that he will only do a deal if he thinks it is the right deal for the british people. yesterday we thought this thing was going to be a cakewalk. he came in here. now we expect to be hosting what they were calling an english breakfast. now it has moved to a belgian lunch because they were up so lite in the night. i think there is a sense that there will be a deal in the end. a lot of countries want there to be a deal but david cameron learn there are 27 other countries and each has their own idea how the deal should look. tom: ryan, who is driving the bus for europe? there are 27 countries, whatever it is. he is across the table from one person. who is that? ryan: right now he's going to be across the table from the president of france. the president of france doesn't like all the language when it comes to financial regulation. basically what cameron wants to preve

that could determine the united in the eu, ande ryan chilcote is joining us. evenat, just hours until the meeting starts. what is the latest? we will be getting the cars rolling in, and a dinner meeting at 8:00 p.m. ryan: the bottom line is everyone wants to get this over by friday dinner. cameron shows up, he is going to meet with the other 27 eu leaders. the hope is that everyone well, after they discuss what written --ts today, get a good night what britain wants today, get a good nights sleep, reconvene tomorrow morning, and if cameron gets his wishes he will have a deal by noon. he will fly back to his offices on downing street and an a referendum on june 23. is that youthe plan have dinner at 8:00 p.m. as well. what is the number one ask that the prime minister is asking for? ryan: the number one ask is on migration, tom, and he is seeking to limit some of the benefits that eu migrants in the u.k. can get. there will be some argument about that, in particular some of the eastern european countries are can discern -- britain getst if away with it other cou

francine: ryan chilcote spoke to bob dudley in a bloomberg first a short while ago.s us now from outside london. he did a great interview. you spoke about dividends, looked at where he sees the price of oil going, and he told you he will stay at the company. what was most significant for you? look, i think is the on the oil prices the most significant, because his whole strategy for the company is based on that. bob was one of the earliest people to get bearish on the oil least and he's one of the bearish as things stand at the moment. he thinks the oil price will recover in the second half of the year. no, the things that will shoot up to $100. he thinks it will come up and off to help him borrow more money, take the gearing up as high as 30%. it will allow him to not cut spending and keep that dividend safe. you look at the dividend yield as south of 9% in not all investors are convinced. tom: it is at 7.57%. when the ceo says he is not going to cut the dividend, it is usually the kiss of death. capex can he take out? they have gone down to 17 $18 billion. how much

ryan chilcote is in brussels. what are the sticking points right now?: the sticking points twofold. one comes down to the benefits that eu migrants working in the u.k. are entitled to and how much are they going to get? the u.k. is demanding they cutback on some of the benefits those migrants get. eastern european countries want to make sure no other countries follow suit if they allow britain to do that. make sure migrants in the united kingdom don't already have their benefits yanked from them. the other issue is bank regulation or to what extent do the non-euro using countries within the european union countries have to listen to the andtries that use the euro to what extent can british banks be shielded from eurozone regulation? the french had major objections to some of the language, concerned british tanks might an unfair advantage, but some of that appears to be smoothing over. fair to say all the countries here do want to see a deal. sequence ofs the events over the next 48 hours? ryan: they are discussing the u.k. proposal. it has kind of been

ryan chilcote in brussels. ahead on bloomberg markets, the recent plunge in oil has many people speculating that we are just seeing a repeat of the mid 80's collapse. we will talk to one expert who says this time, it is very, very different. ♪ alix: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i am alix steel. let's start with the headlines. more from the news desk. first, we go to washington. dignitaries will pay tribute to the late justice. the president and mrs. obama will pay their respects this afternoon. the funeral is tomorrow. recent polls show that hillary with bernieied sanders on the eve of the nevada caucuses. hillary clinton has had some last-minute campaign events. donald trump as a big week going into the republican primary. the big fight will be for second place between ted cruz, marco rubio, and jeb bush. respect comes from south carolina with special guest, trey gowdy. the international space station just got a little tighter. launched aauts trash. filled

ryan chilcote reporting from brussels. let's talk about what is at stake for the u.k..guest is a u.k. lawmaker for the opposition labor party. he has been campaigning for the trade benefits for the u.k. deal today or tomorrow, yes or no? guest: i'm reasonably optimistic we will get a deal. technically tomorrow u.k. time. will it be similar in nature to the deal struck a week ago? guest: i think it will be along those lines. it will be opting the u.k. out of this notion, so to be clear it's a big political expedition. one of those who voted in 1975 in the last referendum thought that it was an economic project and now they worry it's a political project. mentioned,st nondiscrimination provisions against those who are part of the eurozone, we should be able to reach some kind of agreement there. the social security and welfare benefits part will be quite contentious. agree on isyone can the measure to make the eu more competitive. you mentioned the older generation and some might say where's the control of our borders and reduced cost to our membership? where's the sovere

for his long as 10 years, according to the world's biggest oil trader, speaking exclusively to ryan chilcotea very rare interview. the vitol ceo says a slowing china economy will act as a cap on any price rally. >> this situation where we have too much supply, the balances do not look like they are timing out yet. we're still seeing bills in the u.s. i don't think we can say the price has bottomed out. ryan: if you have to put your money on a number, which hopefully you don't, the brent price at the end of the air would be what? >> $40. you can come back and kill me because i'm sure all the wrong. ryan: [laughter] [laughter] so you don't see a sharp rebound in prices. why not? >> i know oil majors don't believe this -- there's so much stock built up in the world, and i think we just believe it will take a long time to work off that stock, and that will happen over time. nobody is going to wake up and say there is no oil left. i think the world continues to be plentifully stocked. ryan: how long does it take to work through the stock? how long does it take us to say to get back to $100? >> do

ryan chilcote is in brussels. ryan, sticking points?here was a great story this morning about controlled explosions. what are the controlled explosions, ryan? what is going on? ryan: i think there are three bones of contention. the first would have to do with what extent countries within the eu that don't use the euro would have to comply with rules dictated by countries that do use the euro. in terms of the banking sector, another way to understand that is to what extent british banks would have to comply, or be bound to, rules composed by brussels. perhaps the most contentious is the issue of migration and migrants. there are about 2 million migrants from the european union working in the u.k. right now with about 34,000 children living outside the u.k., for which they are claiming benefits. david cameron and the said the benefit will be paid for those 34,000 children at a cost of living index based on how much it costs in the countries they come from, as opposed to the cost of living in the u.k. othein other words, they would get les

ryan chilcote. just but there is a possibility you will not necessarily go above $100 ever.now i have been in the oil business for far too long, but if you think about the last 40, 50 years, it has only been above $100 for a few numbers of those years. and china has changed. china has huge growth in the 2000's, something very dramatic. happened at a time when the oil industry was investing, happened at a time when we did not have things like shale, and that has changed. ryan: you say that you see the oil price at the end of this year at $40 a barrel. the year after, the year after that, where do we move? we imagine a band, and i aink we would naturally see $40, $60 turned down. but something -- you can bring on some of the oil fields that will probably go out. there are huge amounts of discussion about that. .o us, it was clear a lot of the oil was going to be shut down in the next year or so because it is simply too low a price. some of it could come back. know, we see that possibly above 50, 55 for sure. ryan: and this lasts until when? natural declines every year. i could

let's get to brussels where ryan chilcote is standing by. ryan, sleep deprivation probably something of a story overnight. let's talk about why these folks are bothered. there are a few sticking points that remain, the british demand that benefits for eu migrants working in the u k be incurred and specifically how long it would take for eu migrants working in the u.k. to be eligible for british benefits. remember in the draft agreement pulled outesident that it was going to be a periodear waiting e before they vested in those benefits. migrants we need to wait for seven years but actually we might want three-year extensions in addition to that. that caused eastern european countries -- that caught eastern european countries off guard. they were very negative in general. they suggested five, the talks went on. there is also an argument between the french on the one hand and the brits on the other about mitchell formalization -- about financial formalization. non-euro using banks within the european union. the belgians and the french said i've

francine: ryan chilcote spoke to him in a bloomberg first.s us now from outside london's bp headquarters. according to bob dudley, bp can shake this off. he is expecting low oil prices for the first half and a slight pickup in the third and fourth quarters. ryan: yeah. i think that not everyone is convinced. dividendat bp's yield, the highest it has been an almost a quarter-century. so, not everyone is convinced. but you are right. he thinks that oil prices will trend higher in the second half of the year. he talked about how he expects production supply from the shale fields and north dakota in the united states to decline. he expects oil supply in places like russia to at worst maybe declined by a couple of percent. t coming out of the markets. and he thinks that clearly if they raise their gearing to as high as 30% where he says traditionally bp was geared l, they cangulf spil get through this without cutting the dividend. it really comes down to your view of the oil price. he was one of the first to be bearish. he says they made the neces

. -- bhb, fromctor the 22nd to now, that is an 11% move here it ryan chilcote is here. big move in australia. we see it coming through again in europe. ryan: a decision, the bhp story. they caught our attention this morning. they were down by more than 8%. worst performance since 2008. the question you have to ask yourself is what is to happen at the open? overnight, what do we learn? -- what did we learn? malaise.t a general we got a little bit of news out of brazil. the brazilian police seeking arrest warrants for six executives. some arco is the joint adventure that php has. -- that bhp has it there. than bhp a bit larger continued concerned about the commodity sector. specifically about metal producers. possibly sees oil coming back. the picture for metals is much darker. guy: in the center of the u.s. oil industry sticking it to -- what was the message? nutshell.ke it in a if you are experiencing pain, it is because the glut on the market as a result of the low oil price. you've got three options. one to lower your cost, to is to bar -- to is to borrow some cash. d

he and taylor spoke exclusively with ryan chilcote.situation where we have too much supply, a balances do not look like they are tightening up yet. we have seen this build in the u.s. so maybe prices will bottom out. >> if you have to put your price on a number -- >> which hopefully we don't. 48. you can come back and kill me because i am sure i will be wrong. sharpyou don't see a rebound? >> no. we don't because there is so much stock buildup in the world. take a lot it will of time to work on that stock and it will happen over time. so no one is going to wake up and see that there is suddenly no oil there. there is plenty of stock in oil. >> how long does it take to work through the stock and get back to $100 oil? it is a genuine question. morenk there is so much supply and we are being more efficient and the u.k. consumption of oil is going down. not much, but it is going down. efficiency of cars is going up, as it is in america. you have to believe that there is a possibility that we will not go back up above $100 ever. >> the poin

. -- the ceo, ian taylor, spoke exclusively to ryan chilcote. >> we are still in a situation where wepply, the balances do not look like they are up yet. you are still seeing built in the u.s., so i would not say we could say for sure. >> if you had to picture money on a number -- .> which hopefully we don't >> the price would be what? >> 48. you can come back and kelly because i'm sure we would be >> you don't see a sharp rebound and prices. why not? >> we don't because there's so much stock built up in the world. we believe it's going to take a lot of time to work off that stock and that will happen over time. nobody is going to wake up and suddenly see there's no oil there. >> how long does it take to work through the stock. do you ever get back to $100 oil? >> i think they're so much more supply and we are being more efficient. u.k. consumption of oil is going down. efficiency in cars is going up tremendously. you have to believe there's a possibility that you will not necessarily go above 100 ever. >> the point is that this is a turnaround, a turnaround of the and given the real

we go to ryan chilcote.s i understand it from your reporting and others, the big issue is the length of time for immigrants coming into the you had that into the u.k. before they get benefits. i understand that cameron is coming in with a different position, asking for more. what happened? originally, what the british prime minister was when ang was that migrant from the e.u. comes to the u.k., they have to wait for at least water years before they are in -- at least four years before they are entitled to welfare as british citizens, and the possibility of a three-year extension tack on top of that, so we are talking seven years. everybody seems to be on board with that, but last night he brings it up to 14. they suggested a middle ground. they have been talking about it for the last 12 or 13 hours. david: this is what i do not get. i have been through negotiations . to go in and move away from the other team when you are trying to get a deal done, that is not the way normally to get a deal done. did he go b

ryan chilcote is with bob dudley. we're joined by bob dudley. thanks for being with us. the oil prices, it went from $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter $40 in thethis low last quarter of last year. a lot of people were expecting cute to cut capital expenditure but you did not. then 2013, we were in $24-20 seven dollars range. we have come in at 18.7. the scope is to reduce capital. we have big projects and we want to make sure we do not threaten the growth of the company. ryan: you have been guiding the market towards 17 billion this year. 2016, where do you see that number coming in? >> the low end of that guidance. we see cost reduction. ryan: scoop to cut it further, -- scope to cut it further. >> this year we have deferred a couple of big projects because we see the deflation coming in. the economics are better if we move those back. ryan: if you look at your leverage, they grew from 16.7% to 21.6 percent. an increase of 5% in just one year. >> before the accident in the gulf of mexico, we ran the net debt between 20-30%. we took it down to meet the uncertainties in

ryan chilcote caught up with the what if heed him thought and opec production cut was on the horizon.-- saudi arabia cut production. laurent cut production? will brazil cut production? who is going to cut? if they say they will be cutting production? we will elect to see that reflected in our investment plan. if doing 2014, 2015, our friends rock oh, then they will have a loss. i think this issue is quite come located. here it is necessary that companies do not have a loss. one is to think how do you achieve that in such circumstances? >> in principle are you against it? are you just skeptical? >> i am protecting the interests of rosneft shareholders. we will provide our markets with oil. competitive environment, with those we have just mentioned. guy: from russia. kennedy is with us. how did that happen. will: total has one of the biggest refining businesses. there started up a lot of new projects in their production and their production went up 9%. -- and their production one of my percent. guy: what happens next with this oil market. a big move in the dollar trade. that will rip in

ryan chilcote joins us. i want to start with the bank of england.f the more interesting events. the fed, markets pricing out the rate hike, markets pricing in rate cuts in the bank of england. how does carney deal with this dilemma? how does he convinced the market that we're where we should be? havee of the issues they is that they highlighted -- i believe it was last quarterly inflation report -- concern over the strength of sterling. the more dovish tone may have taken since then is seeing sterling come off. they will welcome that, but it won't be lost on than the fact that the pound has weakened a little bit from the strong levels we saw because they took a more dovish tone. might they push back? they might, but i'm not sure they will be buying it. jonathan: jennifer ryan writes that governor carney is on track for a feat that haven't been done since the last bank of england governor never do anything with interest rates. >> that is what investors are saying. there is a little bit is easing priced into the curb, not enough to show they are expec

let us get straight to ryan chilcote who has been analyzing the oil story. ryan, oil, despite the rising u.s. dollar, a great picture it seems. ryan: yes, i a you a big apology. back manus was knocking the fondue in switzerland, i was telling you fibs saying that it would rise more than expected. that means the glut is extending. course, that was all wrong. i forgot about the dollar, right? you should have bought that aboveground swimming pool and filled it with crude. you would be a 9%. not only that, but now that we have this bounce in the pound, you cannot use the swimming pool. manus: everybody told us, you and various ceos, it was to do with the dollar. $70 would be the supply. was the dollar. where do you stand now, make the call? no pressure. ryan: i feel like every single day we have to come up with a extraordinary oil prices. i heard from scott who talk about guggenheim partners them when you get close to the bottom you get extreme volatility. however, in this case the we do extreme volume. everybody says the oil price should go up sometime soon. i w

ryan chilcote is here with more. walks us through this number.is is critical for all oil producers. everyone is watching it carefully to see how the strategy works. some people are boosting their balance sheets, but this is a different story. ryan: at the end of the day, with these earnings, they need to explain to investors have it will protect their credit rating. they have two choices. plan was to cut the dividend. massive. been a lot of pressure to do that. or sell part of their stake in the spanish distribution and retail business. that is something they would only do to protect their investment grade rating. they really didn't want to do that. and as you can see, they have done the first of the two options, cutting some of the proposed dividends. they have the problems that are inherent with all the oil companies, in to sense a very low oil prices. but they also have another issue, which is that they did the second biggest deal in the oil industry after oil prices started tanking. theirthe bg/shell deal, acquisition for $13 billion of talis

thank you very much, ryan chilcote.us turn our attention to david wilson, director of metals and global strategy at citi. what is happening in the metal space? i like the title of your note, how much can you allege that the mining sector has a moment? david: we are not really seeing enough adjustments in terms of what we have seen a significant slowdown in demand from august the the world's biggest consumer, china. but we have seen some adjustments in some markets. not really across the board. we don't seem to see m iners thinking it might be lower for longer. mining men, really ranting that point home. the market in terms of strategy of just keep on producing. anna and i have come up with this, a correlation between the yen. take us through the rest of it. anna: in yellow, you have the declining yuan. and in white you have the chinese copper imports climbing. in your notes, david, we have actually seen chinese copper imports rising, when the currency was depreciating. that is not what people expect. what is that showin

ryan chilcote joins us from brussels.xactlyke us through what the specific sticking points are and which are the leaders that cameron has to persuade? threeyeah, so there are bones on contention. the first on the financial front has to do with how countries within the european union but do not use the euro object to roll and ideas that the countries that do use the euro come up w ith. in plain speak, some of that has to do with how british banks can shield themselves from e.u. regulation. the french did not like that idea. they are concerned that the british banks might get some kind of unfair advantage out of this. they of said -- it's important to keep the minimum principle of the single market in mind when these discussions are happening. so that is one point of contention. the other is migration. specifically, how much welfare e.u. migrants in the u.k. can get. contention there is some eastern european countries concern that britain gets away with some exceptions. may be other countries like denmark will as well. then

: what we saw with the oil dividend, the script dividend at that, bob in our conversation with ryan chilcoteas making the point that they will be ok for bp, who is most at risk in terms of the dividend? colin: i think dividends in a is probablysks, bp the most sensitive at $60. that would be the most troubling for the shares. manus: he is looking for 100% rally. them cuttingsee costs enough to survive on that. and for shell, this latest acquisition with bg does not make a lot of sense for people. i think we will see some worrying announcements at shell. cuts, more job cuts, cap organizations? colin: they need to cut caps, but i don't think they can maintain dividends. current oil prices even a $50. manus: before i let you go, disinflationary environments? colin: we like stocks like imperial brands, as it is now called. some of the pharma stocks like glaxosmithkline and astrazeneca are coming off low basis. they have been beating up good results yesterday. i think pharma and tobacco are a safe place. manus: health and a smoke. asset management, how to play a disinflation very environment. up

ryan chilcote from bloomberg was told that prices will stay low up because of economic growth in china at the end of -- you can come back and kill me because i am sure i will be wrong. vonnie: that is our bloomberg business flash. tom: vonnie quinn, thank you so much. i do not know where to begin. hoursmor is she got four of sleep three days ago. there are two candidates worth focusing on and one idea -- total chaos. megan murphy joins us, washington bureau chief, from manchester. what is the to-do list today for the candidate you are most focused on? megan: look, here in new hampshire it is a big deal now for marco rubio. it is his day to show he is not going to fade out and lose his second-place surge that he had. people expected him to do very well here. the thing to watch is the governors. kasich --stie, john can they close author a major -- can they close off of their it amazingly strong debate. he still has a 12 point lead. it is his to lose. it is going to be a crazy day, crazy snow. it is manchester. tom: crazy snow brings me back to something you do not remember because you ar

in.the iranians want back guy: ryan chilcote joining us. join in -- tune in for full coverage for mario draghi speaking to the european parliament. ♪ guy: to the markets, let's check out what is going on right now. euro-dollar 112. we are seeing some of the peripheral debt backing off a bit. we saw a move up on portuguese debt, 4% plus. 2005 levels in terms of the size of the move on the dollar onshore chinese, a huge move on tokyo. let's get you up to speed. nejra: in japan, the topics has soared to its biggest gain in years. there are more doubts after japan delivered some disappointing data. the economy shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter with weak rabbit consumption the biggest factor. stocks soared on the expectation -- corruption of violence on the border with syria triggered security concerns over security risks. the currency have the biggest decline in a week as turkish artillery units shelled syrian forces trying to seize more territory along the border of the weekend. the u.s. has urged a both sides to halt their fire.