sabato says: "much of the general election will center around the four debates - three preeidential and one vice presiiential." davis says: there's a lot they are planning for - but campaigns have to be ready to react to the unexpected as well. like the nnw job numbers released august and are likely to become a big talking point. fox news. we... have... a... we... davis, fox news. washington, jennifer talking point. in likely to become a big gains for august and are released that show weak the new job numbers unexpected as wwll. like be ready to react to the but campaigns have to lot they are planning for - davis says: there's a presidential." presidential and one vice debates - three center arounn the four the general election will sabato says: "much of weeks too. part of these final debates is a big prepping for twelve." prepping for debates is a big part of these final weeks too. sabato says: "much of the general election will center around the four debates - three presidential and one vice presidential." davis says: there's a lot they are planning for but campaigns have to be ready

and larry sabato who runs the university of virginia center for pol techs. larry, let me start with you. you're kind of the man in the middle here. where do you think the race stands right now? >> bob, i think the president is ahead. at my crystal ball station we have him at 290 electoral votes but some of those states are just barely leaning to him, like my native virginia. obama is ahead two or three points. the polls have him up higher than that, but i don't think he's really there. >> schieffer: ar let me just go to our map of the battled ground states here, nevada, new hampshire, north carolina, ohio, virginia, florida, iowa, wisconsin and colorado. i think most of the polls suggest now that the president is at least slightly ahead in all of these states, except possibly north carolina. cbs news is now calling ohio in fact leaning, leaning to the president not a toss-up state. does that sound about right to you? >> that sounds about right. i actually think north carolina is probably leaning to romney, despite some recent polls to the contrary. to be hon

and larry sabato who runs the university of virginia center for pol techs. larry, let me start with you. you're kind of the man in the middle here. where do you think the race stands right now? >> bob, i think the president is ahead. at my crystal ball station we have him at 290 electoral votes but some of those states are just barely leaning to him, like my native virginia. obama is ahead two or three points. the polls have him up higher than that, but i don't think he's really there. >> schieffer: ar let me just go to our map of the battled ground states here, nevada, new hampshire, north carolina, ohio, virginia, florida, iowa, wisconsin and colorado. i think most of the polls suggest now that the president is at least slightly ahead in all of these states, except possibly north carolina. cbs news is now calling ohio in fact leaning, leaning to the president not a toss-up state. does that sound about right to you? >> that sounds about right. i actually think north carolina is probably leaning to romney, despite some recent polls to the contrary. to be hon

larry sabato have been listening to the first three blocks of the factor.cott joins us from asbury park, new jersey doctor from washington. your tracking poll has the race tied. if you believe all the news reports today the president is way ahead in ohio, florida and other swing states. what's the truth? >> the way i see it, the race is close. it is not a blowout. it's certainly not over. but there is a big difference between saying well, the president is not far ahead and saying mitt romney is going to do just fine. right now the numbers show that mitt romney is trailing. and our polls in florida by point -- florida by 2 points and ohio by a point. he does have some ground to make up but very little. >> i want to be very very clear here. in the rasmussen poll in florida, the president is up by 2, not 10. 2. >> correct. >> bill: and ohio n. ohio the president is up by 1. both within a margin of error a dead heat. >> those polls are just taken over a week ago. they may have shifted in the president's favor, a lot of the numbers have in the last week or so. w

sabato moves others. three states moved in the republican direction. connecticut moved to tosp.na moved to leans republican. e d ly ea democrat/independent. so three of the 11 senate races he moved moved in the republicans' direction. larry sabato moved eight senate races the other way toward the democrats. 8 of the 11 moved toward the democratic candidate. 40 ys y t, th a trend. and voting is already under way in most parts of the country. for people who are favored to win their race, must feel great right now, right? because it's sort of almost t pe wreored to lose right now, they are potentially facing being cut loose their donors. and that is happening to some people who you might not expect to be getting cut loose. that's next. ♪ ♪ ♪ 'rck it's not every day you find a companion as loyal as a subaru. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. governor of getting it done. u ho e. with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. yes, it i

sabato moves others. three states moved in the republican direction. connecticut moved to tossup.ana moved to leans republican. maine moved from likely to leans democrat/independent. so three of the 11 senate races he moved moved in the republicans' direction. larry sabato moved eight senate races the other way toward the democrats. 8 of the 11 moved toward the democratic candidate. so 40 days yet to go, but that's a trend. and voting is already under way in most parts of the country. for people who are favored to win their race, must feel great right now, right? because it's sort of almost over. but for people who are favored to lose right now, they are potentially facing being cut loose by their donors. and that is happening to some people who you might not expect to be getting cut loose. that's next. sleep train's inventory clearance sale is ending soon. save 10%, 20%, even 35% on a huge selection of simmons and sealy clearance mattresses. get 2 years interest-free financing on tempur-pedic. even get free delivery! sleep train stacks the savings high to keep the prices low. but

megyn: larry sabato said the numbers are already fading.is already fading and we are tuesday after the conventions. it's not unexpected that he would get somewhat of a bounce out of his convention but the question is whether this republican pan andic as it's been described by some is well founded and whether these polls are the be all end all. one of the things we deal with in this country is a liberal bias in the press. so there are certain journalists who take polls like that and get very excited and tout them over and over because they want a narrative that president obama's reelection is inevitable. >> sure. there was probably some happy dance going on in newsrooms, a couple i can think of maybe when they saw those tracking polls and started to roll in that showed obama with a 6-point or more bounce. but the reality is this. we talked about this before. your viewers know all about this. it doesn't matter what people say to a pollster. it matters who shows up on election day. that's why likely voter polls are so important. 17% said maybe

professor of political science at university of virginia, larry sabato joins me this morning. on a dime? >> it sure is. and it's a good reminder to all of us who think we know what's going to happen in the next two months that we most certainly don't. things can happen on an hourly basis, a daily basis, a weekly basis. and look, when these things start, you never know how they're going to play out. there are plenty of examples in american history where something like this would have the flag effect that helps the president examine plenty of examples of where it creates the opposite effect r it could end up damaging an incumbent president running for reelection. >> gretchen: let's talk about both of those examples. i'm thinking of the hostage crisis in iran. obviously that didn't play out well for jimmy carter. >> that's a good example. absolutely. in 1980, jimmy carter had plenty of economic problems to boot. but really the last blow to the carter presidency came on the sunday before the tuesday election when the negotiations with the iranians for the release of the hostages u

and speaking of the balance of power, larry sabato will be here as he looks in his crystal ball and tellss what he sees. jon: plus, it's not only the pros, a football team for youngsters accused of running a bounty system to hurt opposing players. rick folbaum will be along with that next. jamie: seriously, jon? oh, my. dozens of homes destroyed as wild weather fuels raging frames. where fire crews are working around the clock and who else will have to evacuate. insulin users test often. freestyle lite can help you test easy. they need a third the blood of onetouch ultra. zipwik tabs target the blood and pull it in. call now for free strips and a meter. jon: now a fox news alert and high winds near campo, california, threatening to fuel an already-raging wildfire. nearly 1,000 firefighters are out there on the front lines. entire communities evacuated as winds blew flames across 2400 feet of desert. while most people did escape, one man was not so lucky. >> it's with great sorrow that we found today that a man passed away during the fire. we don't know the cause at this point of death alt

larry sabato, always good to talk to you. thank you. >> thanks, jon.t now we're going to take you out to chicago, day two of a teachers' strike in america's third largest school district. 26,000 teachers walking the pickets today leaving some 400,000 apartments out of the classroom. -- students out of the classroom. >> teachers like us should not be unemployed, we should be in the classroom. >> we are here not only to represent the teachers, but we are here for, definitely, a better education. >> it's not about money. this is about the children and the conditions. i will keep fighting for the kids. >> what do we want? >> i'm a teacher. >> i had 45 students last year, and i've kept those students basically the entire year, and i had to assess those children. that's difficult. jenna: steve brown is live in chicago. so, steve, more negotiations today. any progress at all? >> reporter: we haven't heard any and, to be honest with you, the comments we get coming out of the negotiation aren't all that optimistic. two figures. david vitali, who's the president

and larry sabato on if the president lost bragging rights regardless of what biden was saying. if we got the veto newed violence and some say we have created a billion bin ladens, what do you make of that? >>guest: well, they have given the slogan a rest. i have not her it in a week that bin laden is dead and g.m. is alive. maybe it will be reviveed. to a certain degree, the fact that we are learning that bin laden sympathizers may have been involved in the terrible libyan incident, that does make it less likely that the obama campaign will put a lot of emphasizeing on the foreign policy. >>neil: unless there is a big boomerang in real wide-spread violence and it translates into oil going crazy, gas going crazy, i don't see it having a big impact. i could be naive. >>guest: well, i have watched since this started. the polls that have come out asking people what their concerns are, both open ended questions and a specific list of questions, international affairs actually has it moved up surprisingly. you would think an event like this it would cause people to put a little bit mo

larry sabato, university of virginia.ers at home fox news latino.com you can see all the polling results of which there are a lot more to talk about too and they are online right now for you. martha. martha: the back and forth continues about what really happened last tuesday night in the streets of libya. we will speak to a former c.i.a. officer who says the white house's claim of a spontaneous attack defies logic. >> it would be malpractice to not to have security at that consulate on september 11th in the middle of al-qaida territory when the american ambassador was coming there and also knowing that we did know there were large demonstrations planned for cairo, to me -- that is indefensible and that also has to be investigated. e v8 taste l. tomato, obviously. haha. there's more than that though, there's a kick to it. there's a pop. wahlalalalallala! pepper, but not pepper, i'm getting like, pep-pepper. it's kind of like drinking a food that's a drink, or a drink that's a food, zip zip zip zip zip! i'm literally getti

larry sabato goes in depth. >>> and he's known for his gaffes, but tonight it's up to vice presidentfollow mr. clinton's lead and drive home the point being he wants four more years. joe biden unleashed, next. [ mother ] you can't leave the table till you finish your vegetables. [ clock ticking ] [ male announcer ] there's a better way... v8 v-fusion. vegetable nutrition they need, fruit taste they love. could've had a v8... >> i want to nominate a man who's cool on the outside -- [cheers and applause] but who burns for america on the inside. [cheers and applause] i want, i want a man who believes with no doubt that we can build a new american dream economy driven by innovation and creativity, by education and, yes, by cooperation. jenna: a little bit more flavor from bill clinton's speech at the democratic national convention. in case, you know, you were watching football last night. the former president pulled out all the stops in charlotte to convince the american voters to give the president four more years in office. but which voters specifically does the obama campaign hope tha

larry sabato in virginia. martha?artha: there are new developments in the "fast and furious" investigation. police in mexico making a major announcement in connection with murdered u.s. border patrol agent brian terry. the latest details in a live report next. bill: hear it for serena williams pulling off a amazing victory in the u.s. open. she came through with a late charge in the third set. she said she did not think she was going to win at one point. her 15th grand slam final. tonight, andy murray against novak dojkvocic on the hardcourt in queens. [applause] to make someone happy.♪ ♪make just one heart to heart you - you sing to♪ ♪one smile that cheers you ♪one face that lights when it nears you.♪ ♪and you will be happy too. tomato, obviously. haha. there's more than that though, there's a kick to it. there's a pop. wahlalalalallala! pepper, but not pepper, i'm getting like, pep-pepper. it's kind of like drinking a food that's a drink, or a drink that's a food, zip zip zip zip zip! i'm literally getting zinged by

weep saw larry sabato, just moved four u.s. senate races from leans republican to toss-up.se are states like north dakota. i think there is an impact. i think it's at the presidential level and -- >> why is this comment sticking out more than nir othany other? i think it's sticking out because the obama campaign has worked to make sure what kind of economy romney believes in, how he made his money, what his model was, how he's hurt a bunch of workers and has never done anything for the middle class. the timing of it matched up with the way the campaign has put him out in front of the country. you couldn't write a better script for the obama team. >> you'd be hard pressed. i think there's a reason for it. when a candidate fits his stereotype, then all of the efforts he makes to undo it just don't work. and then i think there is a second component and that is that he selected as his running mate paul ryan. paul ryan, someone who is passionate about deconstructing comments of the 47%. >> has romney's campaign done a good job of responding to the criticism? >> he first comes ou

: joining us now from charlottesville, university university of virginia politics professor larry sabato. we are watching this play out with the bush blame that is still being sprink celd around quite liberally sprinkled around quite liberally. we are north going to take it anymore. is it working? >> it will work partly because president bush 43, george w. bush has done a smart thing which most presidents are unable to do once they leave office. and that's to actually step off the stage. you know, he has been amazingly quiet. and when you are quiet, even if you have high negatives. you find that those negatives start dropping and the intensity level drops as well. so, you are just not as big a target. it's probably not going to work as well as it might have worked otherwise. larry, then keep also saying mostly democrats of course republicans want to return to the same old. scripted line said by almost every obama surrogate. i also tend to think that those swing voters, and you have studied, this the swing voters want to see what can you do? what's your plan? how are you going to get us m

larry sabato says the race is anything but sealed.need to revisit history when we look back and in 1980 is the easiest comparison. that was a race that was tight, actually days before the election in a famous debate and this exchange i want you to comment on. i want your reaction after you watch this. >> next tuesday all of you will go to the polls and stand there in the polling place and make a decision. i think when you make that decision it might be well if you ask yourself: are you better off now than you were four years ago? >>neil: that was the defineer. >> it was one of the definers. again, if people want to go back and they look at a lot of different sites, and they will see, neil, that, in fact that race was not a slam dunk until the very end, until, really that last week. that debate, that one carter and reagan debate a week ahead of the election date that really helped to focus people on what matters to them. think of elections as almost a massive snow storm. you have feet and feet and feet of snow that have been dumped on

republican allen west and the challenger patrick murphy produced what larry sabato, calling one of theost devastating contrast ads he's ever seen. take a look. >> february 16th, 2003, fort hood texas, lt. colonel allen west received his order and prepared troops to go to war. patrick murphy from a club fighting, covered in alcohol and unable to stands. >> and the vp of of environmental services company hitting hard at lt. colonel west who endorsed that ad, saying allen west is shamelessly attacking pat trek murphy for a mistake he made as a teenager, a mistake he learned from. and west goes on to discuss his tenure in the military 2003 and fage to acknowledge he was criminally charged that year for assault and violating the uniform code of military justice. the murphy campaign is referring to the time west fired a gun next to the head of an iraqi he was interrogating back in 2003 for which west was eventually fined $5,000 before being allowed to retire with full military benefits as a lt. colonel. ap west spokesman is dismissing the murphy camp counterattack, saying, quote, if murphy w

moving further into the democrat's column according to new data from top political analyst larry sabato. but that news is just not sitting well with republicans. they've started pushing the idea that those polls are at best, wrong. and at worst rigged! romney senior campaign adviser ed gillespie suggested he doesn't believe the polls on fox news yesterday. >> mitt romney is what, five, six, seven eight points behind barack obama right now. is that the same kind of polling you guys are finding with your internal? >> it is not consistent with our polling. >> jennifer: when abc's david muir asked mitt romney about polls that showed his 47% comment had actually hurt him mitt romney did what comes naturally. he lied about it. >> well, i'm very pleased with some polls. less so with other polls but frankly at this early stage polls go up and polls go down. as you look at the national polls, you see i'm tied in the national polls. >> jennifer: in fact, it is just not true. the latest national gallup poll from today has the president up by 6 points. gallup that far left, skewed organization. but

sabato moves others. three states moved in the republican direction. connecticut moved to tossup.anmoveto lns maine moved from likely to leans democrat/independent. so three of the 11 senate races he moved moved in the republicans' direction. larry saba moved eight senate races the other way toward the democrats. 8 of the 11 moved towardhe democratic candidate. so 40 days yet to go, but that's a trend. and voting is already under way in most parts of the country. for people who are favored to win their race, must feel great righnow, right us'st lm over but for pele who are favored to lose right now, they are potentially facing being cut loose by their donors. and that is happening to some people who you might not expect to be getting cut loose. that's next. > here's a look at the state rehe pnga goday. new suffolk university poll showing president obama in virginia up by two points. also brand new nbc/"wall street journal" marist polling on three other swing states showing president obama in nevada up by two. showing present obama in new hampshire up by seven. d inest a north caro

now larry sabato, how is this playing politically? thought how this did weigh and ultimately cost jimmy carter the 1980 election, although there are other factors in play. this was a prominent factor. the whole middle east was falling apart what do you make of history repeating itself? >>guest: well, it is always a possibility the we hope it does not happen, of course, because the hostages in iran were seized. this is incredible. they were seized exactly one year before election day 1980. so, not only had it been an interm minutable crisis, but you had the anniversary stories coming up, dominating the election day which made it even more of a problem. >>neil: could be difference be there were hostages and it does fought look like it would be resolved? but the hostages were released on the inauguration day but i wonder whether the appearance of a region out-of-control hurts this president? or do people understand this is a crazy region and neither republican president or democratic president should take the heat. >>guest: i'm wondering

. >>> in tad's office politics, my conversation with larry sabato. his predictions for who will take the house and senate this year and why virginia is the paris of politics. >>> first, i asked larry about the elect ral advantages for an incumbent president. >> historically, incumbents have won twice as often as they've lost if they've sought a second term. history alone suggests that there is an advantage to incumbency. then you look at the particulars and the specifics. first of all, while the economy could be stronger, certainly on jobs, as a whole, it isn't weak enough in historical terms to cause the defeat of an incumbent. there's going to have to be more than the economy if president obama's going to lose. now, does it come from a foreign crisis? i don't know. there are lots of things percolating out there. you never know what might develop. but i think president obama has a lead and it's more stable than people think in part because we're so polarized and dug in. i don't see large numbers of people changing. and as a political -- i rely a lot

this was a bonding moment and you said obviously the governor thinks a left you, but, man, larry sabato the palace guard. >> that was impressive, this were several complete sentences. >>neil: this is framed this way, i find sit down interviews routine and whichst more natural, someone talking to me from the side of their face. >> he is almost like a statue. >>neil: and i looked like lurch. we joke about this, you let those who do not want to talk to now a variety of reasons but they have a message they want to get out and they do not want it watered down or challenged, right? >>guest: the whole game dead is control the message. that means you have to control every word that is spoken and the medium that supports the mention partly because of the overemphasis on gas, we overdo gas everyonmakes then. >>neil: i don't. >> you don't and i i don't but we are the giants. >>neil: bill clinton will make a big speech tonight, he normally knocks it out of the park but part of staying on message is running it by the campaign or by the white house. do you think he did, that the speech has been seen

sabato says that. my question is that one issue that i see is fox news, which is essentially a 24 propaganda machine. i'm curious about your views in terms of what is the influence of fox news on the attitudes and the dialogue in this country, and how is that an asset or barrier to change or barrier to change or barrier to change that's a good question. i will broaden it a little bit i've seen fox and msnbc, neither one does a lot of good for the country. i suggest now most people in here probably anti-violence, right? i hesitate to say this, but i thought we could actually solve a lot of our nations problems if we took rush limbaugh and keith olbermann and put them in the same bag and drop them off the bridge. so i do think various problems on both sides. but if i can expand a little bit -- that was a good question and one of the worst things you can do if you just authored a book and you want people to buy the book is 10 minutes to extort and suggested that in other books they had to buy, and i don't