joining me you, larry sabato. so that's huge, 12 states.d now it's a whole new ball game. >> and here's why, megyn. we were led by the data to do this. hillary clinton had maintained leads that were either small or large in all of those states really since the summertime. and then we all know it was expanded after the convention. but she's had a couple of rotten weeks. and either she's fallen back depending on the state or donald trump has gone up or some people think that democrats don't want to respond to the polls. but very clearly the polls had changed. and they changed enough to ohio to lean it to trump, lean it. and iowa just about everybody agrees that is trump's strongest swing state. so we lean that to trump as well. but i think the real story here is florida, north carolina and nevada. in all of those states you either had very contradictory polls or polls that were dead tied. so tossup is the right rating for them. >> a poll put her up 5 points over trump in florida. they're all over the place. one thing we read this week was tha

sabato: no, i think it is the gradual disintegration of the balance.nt, his convention was not very impressive. the democratic convention was excellent from a number of different perspectives. hillary clinton got a big bounce out of it. but just on schedule, the convention bounce has declined as we approach labor day, and we are back to a lead that makes sense. now remember how polarized we , are. i think it is very unlikely that hillary clinton is going to do much worse than barack obama did in 2012. he won by four points. or much better than barack obama did in 2000 eight, when everything was going the way, and he won by seven points. john: let's look at the states that are traditionally red states, that they say the clinton campaign can put in play. they said today they are going on the air, for example in , arizona, there are five other normally republican states that could be in play, georgia, arizona, and to some extent, maybe maybe utah, kansas, , missouri, south carolina. which one of those normally red states as a place where trump might be vu

last night on the "factor" larry sabato, director of the university of virginia's center for politicss chances to defeat hillary clinton in november. >> if you get all of mitt romney's states including north carolina and you flip those rust belt states, pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin and michigan, then you get to 270, yes. >> what does he have to do to do that? >> well, he's going to have to have some luck. >> with us now to respond in washington, d.c. is former speaker of the house newt gingrich, a trump supporter. newt, trump says he's been pleased by some recent polls. where do you see the race right now? >> first of all, larry sabato's idea of luck may or may not include the obvious fact that the fbi just reported that when hillary said she turned over all of her work e-mails she was only off by 13,700. how much luck can you get with learning that bill clinton was taking taxpayer money to get rid of bed bugs? you can't make this stuff up. so i would say that trump's luck is likely to continue and get better and better as we learn more and more about how corrupt and how dishonest th

luego para evitarlo no solamente pues a sÁbato, sino que tambiÉn todas las personas involucradas en els. haz una

at that is what larry sabato referring to. party out of power two terms, see it consistently instead of reagan-bush '88. harris: bernie sanders. she cut that off at the niece. hillary clinton. julie: what about her? harris: democratic party had the intensity with bernie sanders. where are those people? julie: bernie sanders, if i were hillary clinton i would get bernie sanders on road with me to talk specifically to millenials she needs to insure they don't go vote for third party candidate. she needs bernie to talk to people around age of 25 to 30 five and tell them if they don't vote for her donald trump will be president. sandra: hillary clinton back on the trail and selling her sick days as a campaign reset. but is it too late at this point? is this a good way to frame her time off? [phone buzzing] some things are simply impossible to ignore. the strikingly designed lexus nx turbo and hybrid. the suv that dares to go beyond utility. this is the pursuit of perfection. to be taken care of. in good hands? like finding new way

and larry sabato is next on what this means for election day.on't go away. >> i really pay no attention to polls. when they're good for me and there have been a lot of them that have been good for me recently, i don't pay attention. when they're not so good, i ♪"all you need is love" plays my eyelove is finding a different angle. my eyelove is season 1, episode 1. my eyelove is making a story come alive. eyelove is all the things we love to do with our eyes. but it's also having a chat with your eye doctor about dry eyes that interrupt the things you love. because if your eyes feel dry, itchy, gritty, or you have occasional blurry vision, it could be chronic dry eye. go to myeyelove.com and feel the love. >>> just 63 days till decision day, and tonight national security is playing front and center for donald trump. he's in greenville. courting vets and military families. >> hillary clinton favors what has been called military adventurism, okay? military adventurism. rushing to invade countries, displacing millions of families, and then inviting

larry sabato as well. when we come back, much more on breaking news.f protest in charlotte. we want to tella special time on sunday night, 11:00 we will preview the first presidential debate on monday. so make sure you join us here for cnn tonight. be right back. >>> top of the hour, 11:00 p.m. on the east coast. looking live at charlotte, north carolina. atlanta, georgia, charlotte's on the left-hand side of the screen. atlanta on the right. protests peaceful so far in the streets for the fourth night after this fatal police shooting of keith lamont scott. this is cnn tonight. i'm don lemon. thank you very much for joining us. a midday curfew fast approaching in charlotte. police said they would not enforce the curfew as long as protests were peaceful. we're watching to see if that remai remains. if that holds up, as well. >>> the mayor of charlotte is asking the candidates to stay away at least for now. both have agreed to the mayor's request. we'll talk about that. >>> now to the streets of north carolina and atlanta. we'll get there

and we're look at the latest numbers with larry sabato. but we begin tonight with campaign karl cameron rollers from trump tower in new york city. karl? >> reporter: both candidates are intensively preparing for this debate. they know it has a great potential to be a deicive moment in the election. and if there's a huge moment it could virtually decide it, notwithstanding the two other presidential and vice presidential debates that follow it. hillary clinton has been working in mock debates with a sparring partner. no one knows who that is. it's very secret. she's working hard to memorize a series of trump's more colorful and what she considers to be objectionable comments. donald trump is not working with a mock debate or a sparring partner. he's got a steady stream of advisers working with him. he began his prep right after the convention when they began sunday meetings with a team of ads visors. rudy giuliani seems to have become a really important adviser in this process. one of the things that trump has been told to do by all of his

and larry sabato is next on what this means for election day.o away. >> i really pay no attention to polls. when they're good for me and there have been a lot of them that have been good for me recently, i don't pay attention. when they're not so good, i don't pay attention. hmmmmmm..... hmmmmm... [ "dreams" by beck ] hmmmmm... the turbocharged dream machine. the volkswagen golf gti. named one of car and driver's 10best, 10 years in a row. even if you're trying your best.be a daily struggle, along with diet and exercise, once-daily toujeo® may help you control your blood sugar. get into a daily groove. ♪ let's groove tonight. ♪ share the spice of life. ♪ baby, from the makers of lantus®, ♪ slice it right. toujeo® provides blood sugar-lowering activity for 24 hours and beyond, ♪ we're gonna groove tonight. proven blood sugar control all day and all night, and significant a1c reduction. toujeo® is used to control high blood sugar in adults with diabetes. it contains 3 times as much insulin in 1 milliliter as standard insulin. don't use toujeo® to

sabato says: "the last week was the most damaging. and most of these new polls were conducted at the time when she had said basket of deplorables." trump continues to hit back at clinton for calling half of his supporters 'a basket of deplorables." trump says: "how can hillary clinton seek tle country when she considers its citizens, tremendous, tremendous numbers of them, beyond redemption, the hard working people she calls deplorable." the donald though is now facing a renewed controversy... as his campaign releases a statement which says trump no longer believes president obama was born outside the u-s. however... trump has yet to say this himself. pierson says: "he is, barrack obama is not on the ballot." (on-cam tag) trump and clinton will be in several states today... while both candidates will make stops in washington d.c. in new york, patricia stark, fox news.>> a week after a mercury contamination forced more than a thousand students from their school... police are still trying to figure out how the substance made its way int

sabato says: "sometimes they move the needle ... but often they move it only for a few days, or a week, or ten days -- and then it goes back ... the campaign goes back to where it was, at least in the poll or polling averages." blanchard ((on-cam tag)) says: "with just four days go before the first debate, the latest real clear politics average of polls shows clinton's lead narrowing to only two points nationally. in washington, lauren blanchard, fox news." recent polls show clinton and trump... neck and neck - here in nevada. military dogs protect and serve... and now they need you to give them a temporary home before they go off to work. lackland air force base in san antonio is looking for families to help to raise military dogs. the base is home to the only defense breeding program... and also the largest military dog training facility in the world where pups are being trained to help find explosives - especially with i- e-ds being the main threat to service members over seas. but before the dogs get deployed, they have to go to

they're pretty heavily for trump. >> larry sabato, always good to have you. thanks, larry. >> thank you, brit. let's go out to iowa now and get an upclose sense of the race there from the des moines register's political columnist cathy. you heard this last segment. >> the poll is quite remarkable. what are your thoughts about it? >> yeah, brit. it is remarkable. because the race in iowa has been really, really close. the last -- over the summer it really since the -- both candidates have locked down the nomination, it has been neck in neck in iowa. and an 8 point lead as you said largest lead that donald trump has had in iowa to date. so, you know, i think the question is why is it suddenly, you know, is he opening up a big lead in really a short period of time. and when you look at when the poll is taken, monday through wednesday, just like larry just said, you know, the optics for the clinton campaign were terrible. she was having one of the worst weeks of her campaign. where all anybody was seeing on tv was hillary clinton fainting. meanwhile donald trump

joining me now, larry sabato. to see you. >> good evening, megyn. >> is there anything we need to know about that, the fact that you've got john kerry who erased a seven percentage point with the first debate, mitt room my erased a four percentage point deficit, lost the election by four points. >> well two points. there's a reason why we have three debates. you know, we just had part one. we've got part two and part three. i leave aside the vice presidential debate for the moment. so the story line can change and the candidates with improve their performance or deteriorate, depending on what they have learned from the first debate. and the other thing, megyn, that i think is very very important, there are fundamentals in any election that probably matter more than the debate. the thing that helps donald trump the most and has helped him all year long is he's the change agent. we've had two terms of one party and in modern times, we like to switch parties after eight years. that's what in part has propelled trump

sabato says: "the polls have switched from the big body of registered voters, to the much small group of likely voters. and, who are the most excited voters in america right now? they're donald trump voters." waldman says on-cam tag : "president obama himself -- also weighing in on the birther controversy today, saying, quote, "i'm pretty confident where i was born." in washington, joel waldman, fox news." it's time for your news and weather together. credit card "skimmers" on a gas pump are now facing charges. officials say richard rivera garcia and ho-sway garcia mor-et put a device used to steal credit card numbers on a pump at an elm grove gas station. the owner set up an alarm at the pump after finding and removing a skimmer. when the suspects returned-- they fled once realizing the device had been removed. they were stopped and taken into custody shortly after. information from more than 200 accounts were found stored on the different incidents between officers and students this week. officials say yesterday-- a 13- year-old girl at thoreau was grazed by a bullet during a strugg

to larry sabato. i suspect, extraordinary professor, we -- out of sight, out of mind. 15 years is a long time out of sight. >> we don't have that long historical perspective that some societies do, neil, and i agree with you. i wish people would before they vote in any election, take a longer look. they should look back, they should look forward and more than just for a few days or weeks or months. but september 11th was such a searing day. it doesn't take much to remind people, and it doesn't take much to get that knot in your stomach hat you had that day. so, i think it still does influence our politics and candidates, if they refer to it respectfully and in the right way, can draw some lessons for voters today, and should draw some lessons for today's voters. >> it's interesting that is a frightful as some people are when polled on the subject, over half americans think we'll have another 9/11 like event or that we're going to get hit again -- and i hive had guests on the show, tom ridge and others

with me, larry sabato, director of the university virginia center for politics. ryan liza, cnn political commentator and washington correspondent for the new yorker. welcome to both of you. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> all right. so larry, is interethere a doub standard when it comes to transparency? >> well, it is certainly true, as the clinton campaign asserts, that they have been more transparent than the trump campaign. just look at not just the health records but i think the much more important one is the tax returns. trump is absolutely refusing to release even one year of tax returns, including the years where he's not under audit. it's become very obvious that he's hiding something. either a very low rate of paying taxes or very low charitable deductions or something. and we really need to see those. he's the first candidate since the 1970s not to release his tax returns. but i also have to say that it's a pretty low standard to call yourself transparent compared to donald trump. the clintons have a long history of not being transparent and of telling t

larry sabato is the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia.is tracking polls and joins us now from uva to make us smarter and talk about the state states.eground what should we be paying more attention to? larry: the two-way is much more indicative of how the race will probably turn out, and these ex-different -- the six-point closer to is probably about five points for hillary clinton. there is research, and i think it is very good research, that the four-way race just by introducing the names of third-party candidates, you increase their support just -- especially in a race like this. their numbers will go down between now and november. some i want to talk about battleground states. you say colorado, minnesota, wisconsin, michigan, virginia, all likely democrat, but a bunch of traditionally blue states are much closer than expected. where is hillary clinton most vulnerable right now? iowa: she is vulnerable in because almost half the population is white, noncollege, .nd that is trump's bailiwick in nevada, she is him what vulnerable because

here is break down the numbers is larry sabato.o these numbers. >> great. >> so these polls, trump has got a slight lead in georgia and arizona. these are states, as you well know, larry, where republicans have historically won by much wider margin. romney won georgia by 8 and arizona by 10. the election is less than 60 days away now. put this into context for the trump campaign. does it look bad? >> it's much worse news for trump than for clinton. those are two small states, nevada and ramnew hampshire. if she lost them she has plane at this of ways to make thege up. i do not believe the new hampshire polyp it contradicts every other recent poll. as far as trump is concerned, he cannot possibly win if he loses either arizona or georgia. it is very bad news for him that both states are essentially tied. >> okay. you mentioned new hampshire and i do want to remind viewers that president obama won new hampshire, also nevada. much more decisively in the last couple elections. why do you think hillary clinton is losing some grounds the

the director of the university of virginia center for politics larry sabato and columnist for the dailynd roll call, patricia, thank you for joining me. was he right, was it a choke for trump in mexico? >> look, i think trump looked good in mexico city probably in contrast to the president of mexico. that was trump's best moment of the day. he pushed a softer line or diplomatic line. it's when he came back to phoenix that i think people were stunned because we got a hard-line rabble-rouser again. it all depends on where he is and who he's talking to. and that's really not how you make policies. when i'm putting the day together, i would say it was one of his most interesting days in the most unusual campaign. >> that's an interesting way to put it, larry sabatto. so, patricia, when all is said and done, was it a good day or a bad day for trump? >> i'm going to call it a net positive for mr. trump actually. i think a lot of people are having a hard time envisioning donald trump as the president. the question i hear from a lot of voters is just what does that look like. when he goes to me

larry sabato. and jillian gelezer, history professor.h of you. >> happy labor day. >> thank you for laboring along with me, i appreciate it. larry, clinton's post-convention bounce is waning. what should we take away from that? >> actually, it's exactly what you would expect, with one provico. her post-convention bounce was a lot longer than trump's. so actually that's good news for her. she's up by five. she's actually up by more in many of the key swing states which is where the election's decided. and let's recall, president obama won by four percentage points in 2012. that produced a large majority in the electoral college. >> going back, because we did look back, so, we looked back at past labor day polls. it shows the front-runner went on to win about 75% of the time. in 2008 and 2012, barack obama held a small lead and he went on to win both elections. the pollsters had it wrong in 2000 when vice president gore had a small lead over george w. bush. with all of this in mind, i'll ask you, what should we take away from these poll nu

sabato says: "hillary clinton's number one challenge and problem is getting the democratic activist base enthused about her." waldman says (on- cam tag): "president obama himself -- also weighing in on the birther controversy today, saying, quote, "i'm pretty confident where i was born." in washington, joel waldman, fox news." hillary clinton and donald trump will be the only two candidates at the first presidential debate. overseeing the debates invited the two major- party candidates to its september 26-th event on friday. libertarian party nominee gary johnson and green party nominee jill stein did not get invited. the commission said the two third-party candidates didn't register enough support in polls to qualify. the commission has set a 15 percent threshold. johnson averaged eight-point-four percent in the polls the commission considered... and stein three-point- two percent. a battle over emminent domain... is taking shape in california. the buena vista mobi h is one of the last affordable housing options in pricey palo alto. city leaders want to keep it that way and are threaten

larry sabato joins us. we haven't seen split ticketing in a long time, but we have seen parties make these decisions. and this is one of those things that mark murray and i were going, wait a minute. everybody is wonder, when is reince priebus going to do this? the candidates have already done it in many of these races. >> yeah. chuck, they're smart. and they want to preserve their careers. and they don't need them. and thumbs up signal from priebus. obviously, they are going to follow what john mccain did. i've been around a while. i heard it with goldwater. i support the nominee but now let me tell you about me and my record. that's what you're going to hear from loads of republicans. and, chuck, i'm very susspushs about that poll that showed almost a quarter of clinton's voters are willing toet split. it was -- let me tell you. ticket splitting was only 10% of the voters in 2012. i don't think it's going to jump nearly that high. >> if you look at '96, it was a situation where republicans essentially, th

larry sabato, welcome back.s anything that happens on september 26th really matter on november 8th? in other words, will the voters remember this debate what was said, the style points, et cetera? >> they will remember it if they see it in some form or another repeated in the two remaining presidential debates. so donald trump has a chance to correct what was frankly a disastrous debate for him. it is impossible to put it in terms other than that. clinton won hands down in debating style and in substance. >> why do you see it that way? as strongly as you do? >> because i've watched repeatedly every single presidential debate since they started in 1960, and this was the most one sided debate ever. it doesn't even come close and i invite you to go back and view all the other ones, you're too young. but i've seen it. now. >> you are too young. >> there you go. much too young. >> any credence to what the republican strategist, john harwood, was quoting, by all conventional measures, hillary clinton won and yet he wo

joining me now is larry sabato at the university of virginia. couple of places quickly. is trump trying to put it behind him once and for all today? did he? can he? >> absolutely not. if this was designed to put it behind him, he did it in the worst possible way. he irritated every member of the press by actually having a press conference about veterans and then finally at the end of this long press conference, giving a couple of lines about the birther movement and taking no questions. not only that, tyler, this is the weekend of the congressional black caucus convention in d.c. president obama speaking at it, hillary clinton speaking at it. couldn't have picked a worst time for this. >> there are two things that stand out to me over this past week, larry. that is, number one, that donald trump's supporters are much more enthusiastic about voting for donald trump than hillary clinton supporters are or seem to be about voting for her. that's number one. number two, what you describe is the fot, the fear of trump factor. it seemed to me that yest

sabato says: "hillary clinton's number one challenge and problem is getting the democratic activist base enthused about her." waldman says on-cam tag : "president obama himself -- also weighing in on the birther controversy today, saying, quote, "i'm pretty confident where i was born." in washington, joel waldman, fox news." a new brewery is opening in town next weekend. where you can find "third space incidents at milwaukee public schools this week. how the head of m-p-s is responding tonight... up ahead-- a mission impossible-like burglary that was only partially successful. why this thief's payday wasn't quite what he was expecting it's first piece of the milwaukee bucks arena district projects. the company will manage construction for the entertainment plaza, northeast of the arena. the bucks have been referring to it as a "live block" -- which will run along north fourth street between highland and juneau. a new brewery is set to open menomonee valley. "third space brewing" is located near 16th and saint paul. "third space's" beer will first be available at the tap room -- and at 15

sabato: we all know the answer. it's donald trump. so, part of this is a warning to hillary clinton and the democrats that they're going to have to do a heck of a lot more to stir their base and get them out to vote. clinton, meantime, trying to reset her campaign after taking three days off to recover from what her doctor said was pneumonia. she spoke at the congressional hispanic caucus institute here in washington -- telling them that trump still questions whether president obama was born in the u-s. clinton: "he still wouldn't say america. this man wants to be our next luzader tag the new i-phone hits store shelves today! abd if you have a samsung galaxy note seven phone -- the u-s government says to with details. people around the world say while they charged their phone -- it caught fire. that's why the feds are formally recalling the samsung galaxy note seven phone. since august -- the tech company sold two point five million galaxy note seven phones around the world. the consumer product safety commission says 97 percent of th

the managing editor of sabato's crystal ball at the virginia center for politics. got to get my hands on that book and read it. i want to put up the math. this is your math, your forecast, with your analysis of where things and. in particular there are five gop seats that are in play here and the democrats could win. illinois, wisconsin, indiana will be new hampshire, pennsylvania. talk to us about this. >> illinois and wisconsin always look like difficult holds for republicans. those are seats they won narrowly in 2010. so it's a heavy lift for republicans in those seats. so we have had those seats going democratic for a little while. i think trump is dragging down senators. pat toomey in pennsylvania and kelly ayotte in new hampshire. indiana is a different story. he should win indiana, it's a republican state. but eva evan bayh *, a popular democrat brought into the race. gregg: there are some other potential disasters for republicans. arizona, florida, ohio, missouri, north carolina. you don't rule out an upset in which dems would take one or more of those, rig

sabato says: "hillary clinton has had problems. that's what changed. and her problems have cut some of her support." trump, despite admitting he's overweight, enjoys fast food and does not exercise regularly, appears to be in good health. the republican nominee handing over the results of his most recent physical to dr. oz yesterday, oz, from what he saw, saying it's his opinion trump "without question" is healthy enough to be president. trump says: "i think that if i had one thing i'd like to lose weight. it's tough because of the way i live." hillary clinton releasing medical records of her own, revealing her latest exam "was normal and she is in excellent mental condition", according to her doctor. clinton returns to the campaign trail today, after nearly fainting sunday, when it was made public she's suffering from a bout of pneumonia. siegel says: "what was lacking from that report was any mention of the faint, or near-faint that she sustained. previous history of fainting or anything neurological questions that came up from 2012." waldman says on

sabato says: "the last week was the most damaging. and most of these new polls were conducted at the time when she had said basket of deplorables." trump continues to hit back at clinton for calling half of his supporters 'a basket of deplorables." trump says: "how can hillary clinton seek to lead this country when she tremendous numbers of them, beyond redemption, the hard working people she calls deplorable." the donald though is now facing a renewed controversy... as his campaign releases a statement which says trump no longer believes president obama was born outside the u-s. however... trump has yet to say this himself. pierson says: "he has said he does not talk about that anymore. first thing is, barrack obama is not on the ballot." trump and clinton will while both candidates will make stops in washington d.c. in new york, patricia stark, fox news. anchors chat and toss to rob rob's weather forecast from fox6 chief meteorologist rob haswell an area of rain and thunderstorms is running well ahead of a cold front to our west and

larry sabato, brian morgenstern, we'll be right back with our special coverage. >>> my brother, captainon m.dahl. >> that was this morning in shanksville, pennsylvania, where on this day 15 years ago, the terrorist attacks killed nearly 3,000 americans and changed this country forever. this morning at the pentagon, president obama addressed survivors and the victims' families and called on their families to honor their strength and resilience going forward. and families gathered to read names of the 2,753 people who died in the attacks on the world trade center. many are discussing how 9/11 has changed their lives and will continue to change their lives. but they're also discussing national security and the impact on national security. what are you hearing? >> reporter: well, wolf, 9/11 has impacted nearly every aspect of our national security. and while today is a day of remembrance and mourning, for many americans, this day 9/11, folks, feelings of fear, worrying that there is another major terrorist attack on the horizon. despite all the updates and changes made to our security measu

larry sabato, thank you for joining us. two minutes he will be teaching.e in the new york city-new jersey area, so where do the rest go? up next, the new concerns about possible terrorists among them. >>> and laura ingram is here. next hour. don't go away. we've got lots to talk about. with hydrogenated oil... ...but real joyful moments are shared over the real cream in reddi-wip. ♪ reddi-wip. share the joy. >>> new fears of foreign terrorists living among us as nearly one in five syrian refugee already here in the u.s. has settled in the new york and new jersey area. the site of last weekend's bombings. >> so do we have to fear terrorists coming here or should we just say we have big hearts, we should let them all in. here is caitlyn collins. is there a concern americans should have? >> americans are concerned. they are concerned about the vetting process, they are concern about how many refugees we're bringing in. most of are being placed in michigan, california, arizona and texas. one in five are being placed in new york. that's 500 refugees that have b

sabato says: "hillary clinton's number one challenge and problem is getting the democratic activist base obama himself -- also weighing in on the birther controversy today, saying, quote, "i'm pretty confident where i was born." in washington, joel waldman, fox news." a new brewery is opening in town next weekend. where you can find "third space brewery." plus. two weapon-related incidents at milwaukee public schools this week. how the head of m-p-s is responding tonight... up ahead-- a mission impossible-like burglary that was only partially successful. why this thief's payday wasn't quite what he was expecting russ feingold: i'm russ feingold and i approve this message. narrator: listen to ron johnson on social security: johnson: social security is a legal ponzi scheme. narrator: as senator, johnson's been working to turn it into one. he wants to privatize social security putting benefits at risk. and he attacks medicare -- would turn it into a voucher program, costing seniors thousands out-of-pocket. don't let ron johnson turn social security into a johnson: ...legal ponzi scheme. nar

larry sabato joins us now to make us smarter and talk about the state of the battleground states.what should we be paying more attention to, these two-way numbers or the four-way polls? the two-way is more the racee of the way will turn out, and the six point difference in the two-way is close to the polling average of about five points for hillary clinton. there is some research indicating, very good research, that the four-way race, just by introducing the names of the third-party candidates, you increase their support, especially in a race like this. their numbers are going to go down between now and november. john: i want to talk to you about battleground states. i know you say colorado, minnesota, wisconsin, pennsylvania, virginia, all likely democrat, but there are other traditional blue states that are closer than expected, nevada, ohio, north carolina, florida. among those states that barack obama won the last two cycles, where is hillary clinton most vulnerable now? iowa: she is vulnerable in , because almost half the population of iowa is white noncollege, and that is tr

larry sabato is joining me. when you look at new hampshire, michigan, colorado, all moving from leaning dem into a toss-up, trump taking florida and ohio, it tells me that she suffered an electoral disaster over the past 30 days. was it basket of deplorables, the health? what was it? >> actually, i think the last week was the most damaging. most of these new polls were conducted at the time when she had said basket of deplorables and then you had the liable omission about her health problem. i think it was very damaging to her. the first part of the month was simply losing all of the convention bounce which was expected. she's deteriorated further because of the things she did last weekend. it's hurt her. i know the clinton team doesn't believe in pushing panic buttons, but i think they ought to at least test it out because if they continue to deteriorate and they are getting close to the 270 mark, they've got to be worried about that. >> falling from being above 270 and she's fallen down below dangerously close

let's get right to this new polls with larry sabato. thank you so much for coming on. let's talk about these numbers. cnn shows this race is tightening. a statistical dead heat, hillary clinton is ahead by 3% among likely voters, trump is ahead by 2 points. what do you make of these numbers? >> well, the race has certainly tightened in the sense that hillary clinton's convention bounce has completely faded, but you would expect that. she got a much bigger convention bounce than trump did and her bounce lasted much longer than trump's and really prior candidates. so, look, she was at 3 -- plus 3%, 4% prior to the conventions. that's exactly where she is now. we can get into a long argument about whether it's really wise to use that likely voter screen right now because notice the big gap between registered voters, where hillary clinton is leading by several points and the likely voters, which means you screen out people that you think may not vote in the end. well, it's kind of early, don. i don't fully believe at that. and, by the way, the campaigns don't either. >> wh

we heard from larry sabato. he said debates commonly do not move the needle, but anything is possible because we're in this unprecedented election season. you see hillary clinton off the trail. she's preparing for the debate. you see donald trump speaking very often multiple times a day, he's getting national press for that. talk us through the two strategies and what you're seeing from both candidates now. >> well, clinton is taking the traditional -- i don't know that it's strategy, but traditional approach to preparation which is to really closet yourself, to sit down with top advisers. we understand that there is somebody, and i'm amazed that it hasn't leaked yet, that is playing donald trump. you go over christmases, people critique it, the person presents all kinds of donald trumps, a softer gentler trump and also a very aggressive trump. and she tries to deal with all of them trump is taking as you would expect for an unconventional candidate an unconventional approach not getting offer the campaign trail

judge anna napolitano and larry sabato joining.ported today, that members of the democratic party it has them nervously whispering about her stepping aside and finding another candidate. if they needed to do that, who would decide who is going to be at the top of the democratic ticket? >> the democratic national committee has all of the power of the democratic national convention when the convention is not in session. so the 104 members of the dnc, the committee, by a simple majority vote could remove her and replace her. >> with anybody? >> with anybody who is a natural born american and 35 years old. >> the point is, according to this reporting that corky roberts offered on npr, saying that is being rumored. larry, question for you. a lot of people when they saw that yesterday said she's done. now she's come out, i'm fine, i'm on the campaign trail in a couple of days. what say you as to the long term effect of all of this in. >> probably nil. first of all she's very likely to recover from everything i've seen unless they're hidi

. >> larry sabato said this yesterday.said politicians are held to a higher standard because they use taxpayer money, they are t behold den. >> if we look over the past five to ten years, we've seen several u.s. congressman go to jail for participating in taking bribes or pay to play instances. however, donald trump is running for president of the united states now. and as alex said he'll come under more skrcrutiny for not oy this, but other past practices in what he has tried to do to get things done. in this point in the campaign, he seems to have an edge over hillary clinton, but it could change quickly. we'll see when we come up on the first debate later this month, this will be hashed out on the debate stage. >> what guarantee do voters have that donald trump won't run the government just like he has run his businesses? >> well, in some ways, that's the typical argument that a businessman running for president or any public office would make, let's run the state of new york like a business, let's run the city of new y

joining me now is larry sabato. just a word on the polling.this show a trend in her favor or does that show a trend in trump's favor. was she up more in those polls? what are you seeing? >> well, look, i look at the polling averages, megyn. i'm a broken record on this because, you know, in this election if you don't like the polls, they kind of remind me of the british weather. if you don't like it, wait an hour and it will change. the same is true with the polls. you got to go with with the averages. she's up three or four. as you note within things can change once people see the debates. i want to analyze it after i see it. >> yeah because we're seeing just across the swing states a tightening, at least it appears. colorado they're tied right now. she was up by ten. michigan she's up by 4. she was up by 10. new hampshire he's up by 5, she was up by 9.3. there's a tightening going into the debate and the question for you is whether these debates will matter. we go back to the first debate four years ago myth romney was believed even by presid

sabato says: "hillary clinton's number one challenge and problem is getting the democratic activist base enthused about her." waldman says on-cam tag : "president obama himself -- also weighing in on the birther controversy today, saying, quote, "i'm pretty confident where i was born." in washington, joel officials say two police officers and five civilians have been wounded in a shootout -- one victim is dead and the suspect has been shot and killed. a search is underway for a possible second suspect. one of the five civilians who were shot remains in critical condition. one of the officers was shot up to eight times but both officers are in stable condition. officials say a suspect walked up the officers' squad car and opened fire -- that suspect and fired at several people at a nearby bar. a court is holding nick gordon legally responsible for bobbi kristina brown's death. brown -- the daughter of whitney houston and bobby brown -- died in 2015 after she was found unresponsive in a bathtub in her alpharetta home. according to the court documents filed yesterday in fulton county superi

let's get right to this new poles with larry sabato. cnn shows this race is tightening. hillary clinton is ahead by 3% among likely voters, trump is ahead by 2 points. what do you make of these numbers? >> well, the race has certainly tightened in the sense that hillary clinton's convention bounce has completely faded, but you would expect that. she got a much bigger convention bounce than trump did and her bounce lasted much lge

national reporter for real clear politics back with us, rebecca berg, jamie small, larry sabato. once again, we saw today a scripted donald trump. he was almost whispering and sort of the more vocal, bombastic delivery of donald trump. he was cautious and talking in broad terms and even saying he wanted to deefent the right to worship. larry, you first. how do voters assess the different faces of donald trump? >> well, he's got around 66, 67 days to change part of his. marriage because it's just too hot for most people to handle. and remember, he is the first republican in modern times who is losing white college-educated voters. that's the group he was really aiming for by going to the black church. he realizes that he's not going to get much of a percentage out of african-americans. i think he's better low key. his base is absolutely rock solid. we saw that with the immigration speech he gave in phoenix last week. he'd be much better off doing a lot of events like this and reassuring people that he actually could be a good president in the oval office. >> so jay, you agree this

larry sabato is the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia.is tracking polls and joins us now from uva to make us smarter and talk about the state of battleground states. what should we be paying more attention to? larry: the two-way is much more indicative of how the race will probably turn out, and these ex-different -- the six-point difference is probably closer to about five points for hillary clinton. there is research, and i think it is very good research, that the four-way race just by introducing the names of third-party candidates, you increase their support just -- especially in a race like this. their numbers will go down between now and november. john: i want to talk about some battleground states. you say colorado, minnesota, wisconsin, michigan, virginia, all likely democrat, but a bunch of traditionally blue states are much closer than expected. where is hillary clinton most vulnerable right now? rry: she is vulnerable in iowa because almost half the population is white, noncollege, and that is trump's bailiwick. in nevada, she