financials research from goldman sachs.omberg first word news with alice atkins. >> -- the first major move since restrictions to exit a two month shutdown at the end of this month. 2.7 million people were seen early in the morning. the residents have been confined to their homes for another two weeks any other infections are discovered. european gas prices have gained this morning after a fire broke out at a texas gas port terminal. this is despite strong overseas demand. demand has remained under control -- the fire has been under control and there has been no casualties. ukraine's president says an ongoing battle in the city of an area of the mask -- it has lost 85% of its population. this could determine the fate of the entire donbass region. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you. coming up, demand for home goods in the u.k. falls suggesting that the cost of living taken a toll

goldman sachs says it is the tapas markets they have seen in their lives.learly, this selloff has the potential to grow much further. you are not convinced we have seen the worst, is that a jumping off point for this conversation? tatjana: what we have been warning during the last few years of a huge increase in risk concentrations in the markets. you can see a small relaxation, but it is not a complete reversion and there is still a long way to go for it. what markets underestimated is the risk that inflation is going to persist, that supply disruptions will become worse. the ukraine conflict, a lot has been priced in, but asset allocations have not adjusted yet. dani: we've seen the nasdaq fall into a bear market, down 21%. the s&p has been flirting with the bear market. if we are not been seeing the worst, where does that actually show up? tatjana: first of all, the large cap segment of the market is the biggest, 10 or 15% of stocks and have a huge excess of valuation because their earnings expectations are still priced in that might potentially be rever

goldman sachs and stanley are doing buyback after clearing the stress test. us bring in sally bakewell. what do we learn and what are the upshots of this? >> we had a stress test and banks cleared them which was to integrate expected. they passed them last year and the tests were harder this year. they were talking about soaring prices and a huizinga -- housing crisis. about doing buyback. we saw goldman sachs and morgan stanley are at the front of the pack in terms what they would pay in buybacks. one dollar a share by capital requirements which would be interesting because bloomberg intelligence estimates that jp morgan and citigroup may have to have more equity after the federal reserve's test -- stress test. they would invest in the requirements. kathleen: what does this tell us about the bank strategy right now? people who like to hold dividend paying stocks are happy to see any kind of commitment to dividends from the big institutions like this. how does this fit into their overall strategy. >> banks actually the level to analysts were predicting banks

goldman sachs with the markdown on retail.r the excitement you will see as we get to the bank earnings three weeks or four weeks out. dow futures update. pre-much unchanged. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ >> welcome to a special update on tennis channel. two superstars will take center stage at the championship. rob vielma doll remains on course -- claiming his 14th title. victory in london will add a 23rd major crown to his resume and extend his lead in the all-time list. on the women's side, serena williams returns to tennis after a year on the sidelines as she looks for her 24th major title and the breaker tied in the record books. look out for a potential blockbuster fourth round match up where serena williams could face cocoa golf. do not forget tennis channel daily coverage from across the pond starts at 4:30 eastern. jonathan: let's get this trading week started. looking to build on the gains of last week with futures just about positive. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get se

jon: that was goldman sachs head of global commodities research jeff currie.oining us for more is ellen wald, senior nonresident fellow at the atlantic council's global energy center. goldman sachs not impressed, although we should say the white house welcomed this news today. what is your view? ellen: i for more on the side of goldman sachs than the white house, although i think the white house had to issue the statement that it did, especially because they are talking about the president going to saudi arabia to meet with leadership there. you know, they didn't really have much of a choice. i think it is important to understand what this will and will not mean for the market. like jeff said, this is not necessarily that we are going to see a lot more barrels on the market. they are just kind of pushing up some of the increases that the plan increases to come during the summer, which makes a lot of sense, because demand is so much higher in the summer than it generally is in september, october, and so forth. at the same time most of these opec players can inc

jan hatzius with goldman sachs, thank you for coming in.e, lisa, no question about it, a shallow recession. the magnitude of recession has been underplayed with the doom and gloom out there. lisa: and the fed is not going to be as aggressive as people are currently pricing in and that is why you are seeing that reflected in the bond market today, considering that 3.25% terminal rate he is forecasting is well below the 4% yesterday. tom: i am looking at 4 bps up under 2-year yield. lisa: ok, you put the narrative to that. i am actually looking at the point of credibility also. [laughter] if you look at the futures, take a look at breakeven rates, they are close to the 2% level in the next five to 10 years for the federal reserve. it seems to support that even with a less aggressive fed, we will get there. tom: it is about headline inflation for so much of america kailey. kailey: and the chairman spoke to that, americans feel that gas and energy bills is what they are facing. the probability of getting inflation down, it isn't so much about t

a goldman sachs representative talking about a tighter market during summer. opec-plus increased supplies during summer but not enough. if you look at this chart and you see opec capacity, we are still far away from the pre-pandemic levels. there is a lot of skepticism about how much supply opec-plus is bringing to the u.s. markets right now. >> more oil in the markets could help to ease the investor concerns around inflation. ahead of the open, we are looking at a bullish start to trade. the bloomberg dollar index was seeing a bit of weakness. that is helping to boost the aussie dollar. that is typical proxy for risk in the asian session. we hear from the vice fed chair dousing cold water she saying there's a lot more work to do when it comes to getting the inflation target and it very hard to see a case for pausing the actions when it comes to hiking at least in the next few months. shery: the reason we focus on much on the fed pausing is all of the recession fears we keep hearing about. even today, the goldman president warning of tougher times ahead saying

joining us is the analyst behind that call, trina chen, a goldman sachs materials analyst.erials are soaring this year, some 70% of y -- or more, given the backlash you have seen, what makes you we are going to see a correction, and is this really as good as it gets? trina: the key behind this call is we are seeing very restive -- aggressive response in supply of battery metals, especially lithium. that is very different from what we see in a lot of other commonalities. -- commodities. it could lead to a major misalignment between supply and demand the next couple years with the global ev market. with the supply expansion including from australia and south america, the biggest surprise is actually from china. the expansion from china in our estimates what account for more than 20% of the global market. that is the ultimate feedthrough factor for this call to end the bull market for battery metals. rishaad: i am looking longer-term here, we've got a nickel, lithium and particularly cobalt. is there enough of this stuff on earth to really meet demand? and if we are going to r

goldman sachs is saying perhaps the yen could be a good hedge for a recession. boj potentially could make a u-turn. kriti: talk about owning half of the market. it looks like the boj could pass the 50% mark. >> it's hard for the boj to keep those deals down stuff they could make a u-turn and there is a lot of spec elation because they have tried to keep the 10 year yield below that point stuff it's becoming really hard so you can see the chart on the bloomberg. we are talking about 49.2% stuff the boj could face 50% and we have not seen any of those -- at the other central bank go through this process. this is supposed to be easing as a temporary measure. the bank of japan has become the biggest whale in its own market stop what will it mean for bank of japan holders? will they become less comfortable? the private sector in japan is pretty overweight jgb's and underweight equity markets. the boj thinks this is not sustainable also. if they go into the equity space, what would that mean for the boj who is the biggest player in this section of the market? kriti: t

it's an acronym coined by a british, goldman sachs economists 20 years ago. it stands for brazil, russia, india, china, and south africa. the economists forecast that these emerging economies would end up dominating globally by the middle of the 21st century. so let's do a quick rundown. b is for brazil, a democracy struggling under a leader who prefer to be an autocrat under shareable. so now the country's economy has fail to fulfill the promise are for russian needs little introduction. let him, your putin's invasion of ukraine has triggered its sanctions, knocking the country out of the international banking system and prompting to pull out of multinationals from its market. despite that, russia and china, among the bricks, have a particularly close relationship. in fact, on the eve of the war and ukraine, the 2 countries issued this joint statement saying, quote, friendship between the 2 states has no limits. there are no forbidden areas of cooperation. and the to actually doubled down after the war started reconfirming their alliance. now i is for india,

bloomberg says goldman sachs is seeing losses at its consumer unit at celebrity this year to more than $1.2 billion. sources that may group if the sour economy forces goldman to take more positions. it is more than a loss for 2020 which goldman sachs had said would be the low point for the market venture. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, the hurdle that businesses still need to overcome. jonathan song will join us for that little bit later. but first, our next guest says the biggest risk of emerging markets that is yet to take hold is that of a stronger u.s. dollar. the global head of severance at fitch, james mccormack, has more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: look at how currencies are trading at the moment. we are seeing the u.s. dollar holding steady, this after climbing in the new york session. we saw a recession fears really taking hold and that has really led to the greenback gaining ground. not a lot of move

recession concerns reiterated by morgan stanley and goldman sachs. we pace up to the risks of recession. the iea head speaking to the financial times saying europe was prepare for a potential full cut of russian gas later this year. the ftse 100 down by almost 1%, keep an eye on commodities and pressure on iron ore. we will break that out for your shortly, but commodities base feeling the pain today. the cac 40 down, politics to let play as parties work on a coalition plan. the spanish ibex down 85 points. but see how things are playing out, it was a solid day over in wall street but the handoff was dropped in asia, can turns about covid zero and recession is front and center globally for investors. the s&p futures looking at losses of 1.2%, the 10 year is bid this morning 3.2 due to, -- 3.222, and the pound lower by five basis points. down .5% on the back of that cpi but came in line with estimates of 9.1%, and expectations will see that move possibly to 11% as the energy price cap is moved higher later this year. brent $109, a drop of almost 5%, th

and goldman sachs raising their forecast for inflation to 30%. u.s.ointing to gains between 1.8 and 2% for the e-mini's, as the nasdaq reopens after juneteenth. optimism and relief in markets, we will see how long-lived the rebound is. that is it for the market open. surveillance: early edition is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

that included a group of lenders led by of america, credit suisse and goldman sachs.ach of the banks could face losses in excess of $100 million, according to people close to the matter. you are looking at how the bond market, the corporate bonds risk. that is one of the deals that you see has had a lot of focus on how that will end up on the bank's profit sheet. back to you. shery: bloomberg's su keenan with the latest on the big wall street banks. let's get over to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: european union leaders have granted ukraine candidacy status, and historic step on the path to membership, which can last more than a decade. kyiv applied shortly after the russian invasion in february. it will have to meet conditions on the rule of law, just as anticorruption. candidate status is also granted to moldova. >> of course, the countries all have to do homework before moving to the next stage of the ascension process, but i believe they will all move as swiftly as possible and work as hard as possible to implement the necessary reforms. vonni

of goldman sachs strategist -- you have goldman sachs strategist -- do you agree?at this moment they earnings are lacking. the q2 earnings will be to look at how consumers have been hit and how the margins will be compressed. but on leverage, and enter the cycle and potentially recession, look at the leverage issue. it is low compared to historical levels. especially intact. even lower in terms of leverage ratio. at the unemployment rate is still low. earnings so far has been up from last year. it is still a very good area for growth. the growth rate is declining more as we enter a soft landing in the u.s.. manus: we are showing our due and imagery of these numbered valleys. the inflows across the subsequent rally has been -- hedge funds are battening down the houses -- hatches. there are pockets of value in long-term investment. because i don't have to advise anybody, i can say whatever i want. i look at things like microsoft, apple, s&p and go why wouldn't i by these monsters. they just pop it every month, there you go. where are the pockets of value in big tech?

and it is wonderful to see many flags from the goldman sachs or other corporations.hose are many of the allies. so it is a wonderful time of the year and it is quite important to be physically again together. rishaad: we talk about inclusiveness and you know, this struggle to have that. how has the covid pandemic played into that? has it made things worse, has it made it better, has it made people more aware? that is probably one of the key elements to it. masa: that is a very good point. by the way, obviously, we have a distinction when it comes to visiting families or relatives in the hospital when covid was peaking. and that is actually quite normal for the lgbtq community, given that in many countries, same-sex couples or partners are not allowed to visit the hospitals for their partners. so it is a good reminder of the whole community that this is what we are facing every single day. and this is something that we need to work with. that is even so for -- not just for the hospital, like benefits or social insurance or any of those issues, still not sorted out for

but the negative underscores the notion that perhaps analyst estimates need to come down goldman, sachs came out with a note saying profit margin forecasts need to come down. you have been waiting. people are saying earnings season will hold the key that's when we get a real indication how companies are faring with elevated inflation, what the outlook looks like. >> we'll get to nike in the next block or two in terms of inflation, the fed, recession this is why the multiples have come down ironically, earnings are up. so far, earnings are actually headed in the opposite direction. so there's that. key for the overall market will be second quarter earnings because we don't know what's going to happen. what we know is demand is absolutely on fire across the board, wasn't just nike that said it, accenture said it as well a lot of companies in conference season talk about demand is holding up it is the cost side that's very concerning and a problem now you have china reopening so you have another demand equation probably going to perk up to offset some cost pressures, eventually cost pressu

but when sarah -- -- goldman sachs say losses may grow.he figure is greater than the roughly $1 million goldman had estimated for 2020, which it said would be the low point for the market. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery. shery: coming up next, wells fargo securities sees a mild recession for the u.s. in may 23 is the base case. hear how that is reshaping their investment strategy, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think shallow. i think the duration is still very much in question. i say shallow because, you don't have a de-leveraging cycle on top of a recession. that is very different from how we entered the financial crisis. yvonne: morgan stanley's chief u.s. economist there. that's in anna han, equity strategist at wells fargo securities, to talk about the massive selloff in the u.s. session. . seems like recession talks are getting louder. the likes of value stocks, reversing when it

let's bring in zach, cohead of goldman sachs strategy. great to have you back.et's talk a little bit about what defensive fx means because i was thinking about this a couple of years ago, i would go to the japanese yen, u.s. dollar, but given how they have been trading, i don't know what to say. what are you recommending? zach: yeah well, we really think that japanese yen is the safest currency to be in in this highly uncertain, volatile both macro environment. it is a safe haven in a particular way, it works as a safe haven when u.s. demand is slowing down. the u.s. economy is going into a recession or growth is coming down, what is -- that is what the fed is trying to achieve. that is what we're trying to see in the data and tomorrow, the report will tell us whether we are seeing that in the labor market with employment. i think we will see substantial signs of slowing, and that makes yen our top pick at the moment. shery: where the dollar goes also very much because of where the euro is at right now, what are you expecting on that front? zach: both the fed an

goldman sachs says the dividends will jump 22%.anley is raising its quarterly stock $.77 per share. it's also operating a new multiyear common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion. haidi: the bank of japan says it is committed to keeping yields low despite a mobile push to hike rates, but now investors are doubting the central banks results. i were reporter talks us through what is bloomberg's big take. jp morgan to schroders, some of the world's biggest lining up for the so-called widow maker trade despite the reputation on how the story works out. reporter: investors are circling around the boj. it comes down to the polity diversions story. the boj is letting everyone from the fed to the rv j to bet against it. at some point the boj will have to tweak or even abandon the policy. you mentioned schroeder's. they are saying japan is the one market telling us to go short. so there is a lineup for people to really say we don't make a trade. kathleen: at some point maybe in the future, but what are the implications to g

alix: let's get more on oil with jeff currie, goldman sachs.lways a pleasure to talk to you. you get increased outputs. market was not expecting it. the oil price goes up. i don't get it. jeff: it does not really change anything. when we think about what they did, they compressed three production hikes into two months. it does not change the terminal level of production. the market tried to price in a bigger terminal level of production over the last several days. you are getting a rebound rally back to levels we were before these rumors. the key message is as you distribute potential russian supply over other members of opec, they cannot even hit their quota now. they are already significantly constrained in their ability to increase with the exception of saudi arabia and uae. when we think about how does this change the fundamental picture when we go to september, october, it does not do anything. anna: good to see you. does more oil more quickly not make any difference at the margin or the symbolism of opec-plus doing something different fro

a defensive rally, goldman sachs saying the underbelly in the ramp-up was defensive. why? because we are off the 14 year high of expectations for inflation. we will hear from bullard later. asian stocks rally on the tech story and jp morgan saying because of repositioning for the quarter you could see stocks rally another 7%. to the cross as a check this morning. oil as we going to opec, in the previous cycles of recession, in the past three this century oil on average dropped 66%. but it is a structurally different market in terms of capacity constraints. yields rise because maybe that excitement over the top of inflation on thursday and friday, you of m inflation expectations has perhaps topped out. copper has a reprieve, it has dropped 11% on june, some stability coming to the china story. bloomberg calls it neutral positioning. we will put that to enda in just a moment. we've got maria tadeo in germany, covering the g7 summit for us. andrew james on the russia default, the first in a hundred years. and for news on the chinese economy, enda curran has the position for n

this note reads like a goldman sachs note 30 years ago, paragraph by paragraph. lisa: it is in response to edward from yesterday. perhaps, there is something more vulgar-esque. tom: the toxic brew of this recession. team economists wrestling. [laughter] stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: president biden wants congress to do something about soaring gasoline prices. bloomberg has learned he will call on lawmakers today to enact a gasoline tax holiday. average gas prices in the u.s., around five dollars a gallon. federal taxes make up a little more than $.18 of that. it is not clear how long the president wants to cause the tax. in the u.k., inflation risen to a new high. prices rose 9.1% in may from a year ago, there were broad increases in the cost of everything from fuel to food and beverages. there were more fines in inflationary pressures building at the wholesale level. china bowing more policies to boost the company's covid battered economy. the economy will speed up the sale of local government bonds. cabinet urging banks to increase le

. >> i know goldman sachs are taking a lot of risk. they need someone like you.hey do not need technology to do it. >> we love our work with goldman as well. we were at our reinvent conference last summer and now goldman sachs financial -- it is one of the moves into the syntax space. they have great capabilities around data and athletics and putting that together with aws capabilities it sounds like it is a great idea. >> it is a big ramp up for them. you have cut price over and over, 115 times since aws was founded. making it a better deal. you work with --. obviously wants to do what is right for shareholders. at some point does he say enough what the price cuts? or does he say yes, that's what we need to do . >> we have no intention of changing course. we have time after time cut price. the vast majority of time in the absence of competitive pressure to do so. you innovate differently if you insist on having a low cost structure. you think about the world differently. we will keep on innovating to drive our own cost lower and continue to pass the savings onto

jp morgan and goldman sachs presenting -- predicting 75 basis points.ess in these bond markets. marginal relief across the equity markets. the dax is higher by .2%. the ftse 100 as well, up 14 points. we look ahead to the bank of england. we have the fed first, then the bank of england, at a time when we could be hiking in a recessionary environment in the u.k. banks and energy are up. telecoms also in the green. a number of sectors in the red including auto parts, real estate as well. in terms of oil, the opec report out later today, the iea is out with that wednesday. francine: the eu's chief brexit negotiator has warned that the u.k. will not renegotiate the northern ireland protocol. the bloc is weighing legal options. our european correspondent maria tadeo is in brussels. >> the u.k.'s proposal is to split the flow of goods between britain and northern ireland off of goods continuing into the eu the u.k. government says that is necessary because the democratic unionist party in northern ireland is refusing to join the power-sharing executive there

goldman sachs morning that stocks could face more declines.hey are looking at profit margins and saying after -- expectations are too optimistic. then we get this really negative read on the consumer from the consumer confidence board. join us is louise. when you put it all together, you get the profit margins and you've got the potential topline weakening consumer demand. what is your outlook? >> i think it is certainly a possibility. a lot of this is going to hinge on price-performance as we see second-quarter earnings come in. that is one of the reasons i think it's important to pay attention to where the stability in the market lies. what we've seen, areas that have done the best have been health care and staples. that's the areas that were left for dead and everybody was banking on future growth. the stability has been in those lower pe stocks, the more stable pe stocks. it will be interesting to see how second-quarter earnings come in. i'm not sure the market has priced that in. this is one of the reasons i've been looking at 12 pes rath

goldman sachs again, cutting the u.s.rowth forecast and increasing the probability that we might have a recession. we also had elon musk again talk about the possibility of a recession. take a listen. >> a recession is inevitable at some point. as to whether there is a recession in the near term, i think that is more likely than not. it's not a certainty, but it appears more likely than not. shery: that is the thing, we are going to hikes and hikes. are we going to be talking more cuts, at least here in the u.s. we could be seeing a potential economic slowdown. investors funding -- investors g some relief from today's session. let's get more from our cross asset editor, andreaa papuc. i am afraid to ask if we are near the bottom. we are hearing from more and more analysts that if you were to price in inflation concerns, we could go even lower. andreea: yes, i think we are asking that question every day, aren't we? are we at the bottom? what we are definitely seeing is that there was some of that selling fatigue in the mar

. >>> and goldman sachs is looking to boost the u.s. recession odds by 30% it is concerned the fed will feel compelled to respond to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further. goldman's updated outlook comes as it believes a mild recession starting in q4 is more likely than not citing tightening financial conditions and food supply disruption brian. >> 30% is not 100% so still a chance. silvana henao, thank you morning math there. >>> back on wall street. investors looking to shake off another tough week the s&p facing the biggest loss since the pandemic and lockdowns in march 2020. if history taughts an us anythi, it is still in the early stages. according to goldman sachs, the s&p has sold off 15% or more on 17 occasions since 1950. in 11 of the 17 times, the market managed to bottom out only around the time it started to loosen monetary policy again it hinged on the fed for the other times. let's bring in dana d'auria. dana, good to have you on the program. is it all about the fed and s

here is goldman sachs' susie scher. >> my advice is to be out at work when i came out at goldman sachsof the birth of my first child and i now have four, i had no idea how being in the closet was preventing me from connecting with my colleagues and clients authenticity is an important part of your brand so come out and be out think he's posting about all that ancient roman coinage? no, he's seizing the moment with merrill. moving his money into his investment account in real time and that's... how you collect coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company. ♪♪ your money never stops working for you with merrill, ♪♪ ♪♪ take the world by cloud. accenture let there be change. (mom allen) verizon just gave us all a brand new iphone 13. (dad allen) we've been customers for years. (dad brown) we got iphone 13s, too. switched two minutes ago, literally right before this. (vo) now everyone can get a new iphone 13 on us on america's most reliable 5g network. for every customer. current, new, everyone. to show the love. >>> all right. packed agenda on friday

let's talk about this with kamakshya trivedi at goldman sachs. of the situations where when the going gets tough, the tough get going to the u.s. dollar i'm not sure if that is necessarily a positive thing given what is happening right now. what do you think this says about where the markets go from here and capital flow given the u.s. situation and inflation and narrative we are weaving >> the dollar is in place and it is benefitting not just from the interest rate hikes that the fed is going to deliver and is delivering, but also the broader risk off sentiment you see an cross global markets equity markets feel the most pain when they feel that central banks are forced to tighten into the slowdown we have a little bit of that flavor in global markets today in the environment, the dollar benefits from the rate hike cycle and dmomestic inflation dynamics you have a risk off scenario with the flows going into the u.s. in the safe haven asset it is premature given the environment we're in. >> it seems interesting. you want to buy u.s. assets, sover

talked about nothing, but what was underwater and junior year is about goldman sachs and he's supposedo go work at goldman sachs and just makes a beeline for wall street and spends his career as a money manager and you know didn't care one way another about what he did it this i watched people make that mistake. and i thought if i just demystify this for people and show how silly it kind of is. that that might my roommate will read this and he'll just go be an oceanographer. i think i don't need to do this. this is not important work. this is a little it's a little silly. you're not adding a whole lot of value to the world here. yeah, you can make money. instead what happened? it was i mean it happened right away like four months after liars. poker was published. i had a thousand letters and i mean a thousand letters from college students saying dear mr. lewis. i read your book about how to get ahead on wall street, and i'm more enthusiastic than ever about it and thank you for writing it and and can can you give me any more tips that in the book? it's also true that people this cultur

shares falling after goldman sachs downgraded to neutral. it is taking into account the weaker environment the and alyst has concerns of t recession and levels of content spend. the stock off 3.5% goldman downgraded goodrx and roblox from neutral to sell. there is concern this morning after the declines in the stock market in the last hour of trading yesterday. >> i would like to go back and look at what the analyst said six months ago or a year ago what was the price target and prediction about netflix coming to this now, do you think this person, whoever made it, don't you think they were pounding the table at 400? >> 500, maybe. >> with a 550 or 600 price target i don't know what you use. >> you could say the same. the market is human behavior mechanism. >> i know. why try? as an analyst, do your best to know inside out what is going on with the company don't try to pretend what the stock will do. >> you should know what the valuation of the company is and what makes it valuable and when it is cheap and when it is not. >> all of that is g

my old stomping ground goldman sachs.ks pretty good on our process compared to other financials it's fairly cheap, which is rare for goldman. it's more profitable, and lower beta and lower volatility. and let me give you one scary example of something we don't like i've only told you things we like i didn't know this till i was coming on tv, but we have a very tiny short of amc. so we got a meme stock short now again, you might laugh that i don't know this. i don't know it because it's never mattered we had it throughout the whole craze. we don't notice the size >> it's not that surprising when you want a short, high valued stocks >> no, because it's terrible on everything we care about it is more than any of the other examples i've given, it is super expensive, super unprofit b and super high beta and volatility to anyone running a quantitative process that's anything like ours, i wish we were totally original, some, but not totally original, i think they'd all hate it. but i think it's like a 12 basis point position in

dudley is a smart man, he was at goldman, sachs when i was there, i respect him a lot, but there's a lot of other people i respect that say recession is not inevitable, and if it is, it might be a job plentiful recession when you look at how many job openings there are. there's one point to macon the positive side of the ledger, cash balances. jamie dimon, heads of jpmorgan and bank of america say the consumer balance sheet is in pretty good shape, can withstand inflation for awhile the other thing i point out, corporate balance sheets which we know are flush with cash as well and frankly, you're seeing that in share buy backs the steel companies preannounced sizable buy backs going on winnebago, small cap company, it released earnings. blow out earnings for recreational vehicle manufacturer, and they're buying back shares. it is not going to necessarily be ubiquitous, but for a long term investor what i see, quoting warren buffett here, my share of the earnings power going forward of companies is going to be concentrated as they use that cash to buy back shares so the balance sheets

as interest rates increase, what's that doing to your risk-weighted assets if you're at goldman sachs morgan. you will have less in risk weighted assets for these risky activities and bring that down, and so certainly traders hate that because then they can make less money and the p & l goes down and what you would say is in a rising interest rate environment a lot of these businesses will make less money and therefore there will be less of a bonus pool to spread around to the bodies that they need to. >> that's a great point, hugh. thank you for bringing us that story and you remember in the lead of 2008, 2009 and 2010 the reaction to the great financial recession in lower manhattan was, not only did you get a bunch of layoffs at the banks and there was this trickle down effect and it affected the mom and pop shop and we're seeing the mayor of new york city trying to combat the work from home culture because he wants the thriving economy. >> now here's an idea, the more that there are layoffs and the more power employees have and the more they have to come back to the office and it c

jamie dimon totally changing his tone waldron today of goldman sachs striking a similar note.ve a pretty good handle on the economy and the money moving and they're turning so bearish. >> but none of them are saying things are worrisome at the moment they're not seeing today's activity as being somehow -- >> it's what to come. >> and when you talk about storm clouds or a hurricane, everyone has had an umbrella hope for months that's what's been happening in the market. >> you're just going to run with it mike, thank you. we'll see you in the market zone. >>> guggenheim slashing its price target on netflix by $85 over costs associated with an ad-supported offering. the analyst behind that call joins us later with netflix popping today, 5.5%. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization

we have goldman sachs trading at less than book ave madin square garden trading at less than book.easonable prices growth stocks have gone from ridiculously expensive to moderately expensive so value is still going to outperform frankly, it's going to outperform because rates will keep going up. the 10-year treasury should be over 4% in this inflationary environment. as rates go up, that's good for value versus growth. >> as we go into the close, we're holding on to gains. the nasdaq is bouncing as well how do you look at this. is this a bear market rally? should you take this opportunity to get more defensive if you haven't done already what would you tell people >> first i would tell people not to focus on one day. i know it's hard to do that, but you have to take a longer term outlook. people always get in trouble by trying to predict where we're going in the next couple of months the worst thing that you can do after a downturn like this is to now get more defensive the right thing to do is don't look at your portfolio every day. secondly, buy companies that will be fine in the

buy goldman sachs at one times book. i don't mean it will go up next month or the month after that, but for the long-term, you're very happy if you add to these positions at these levels and are patient because five years from now i think you'll be exceptionally happy. >> my big takeaway is that stat that you said that we're down about 23%, maybe a bit more today on the s&p and that the average from peak to trough is about 29%, 30%, which tells us maybe we're in the sixth inning of this ugly game. if you thought kelly's interview was good, you should see the interview i done with my son over his grades. so michael, farr, my friend. >> i would have bought a ticket to that. >> they're good. by the way i'm happy to say they're good. >> thank you >> attaboy. >> i was going to say was he plain spoken but he had nothing to hide coming up, with the dow breaking back below 30,000 in today's session, should investors step no too to buy. a look at what the charts say could look at next and a billion weather telling you where we're

and goldman sachs says that you need to see oil prices spike $140 or higher to incentivize new productionurage actually consumption of gas, in a way high oil prices are what we need to cure high oil prices? >> yeah, that is a good pint. a point. and that is the old adage. and that could happen. but what we also need is more production from the u.s. global demand is back to pre-covid levels. global supply is not. and so that is why we're in this position, inventories have declined, prices are higher, so how do you fix that. we need more u.s. oil production, you need more canadian oil production to replace effectively russian oil. and if you do that, think about the impact that could have. ms. yellen just talked about the premium that is in the oil price for the geopolitical issues that we're facing right now. if you have morist,e u.s., more canadian oil that is more reliable and secure, that can help reduce the global risk premium that is in the price right now and help the consumer reduce gasoline prices ultimately. >> so why aren't canadian and u.s. producers rushing out there to pump as

that included a group of lenders led by bank of america, credit suisse, and goldman sachs.ach of these three banks could lose in excess of $100 million. stay tuned. paul: alright, bloomberg's su keenan there. investors are reassessing the fed's rate hike path amid escalating recession fears. yields continue to plunge across the board. let's bring in mliv strategist mark groenefeld for more. have we seen the peak in yields now? mark: there is a chance that particularly for the 10-year and 30-year sector, a good chance we are seeing the highs in the cycle. cameron crise, wakoli in new york, was writing about a bottom -- our colleague in new york, was writing about a bottom for the bond market. the markets are very forward-looking, especially in the rates market. the yield curve is starting to project for when the fed cuts rates in the middle of next year, so we are already seeing an inversion in the futures curve which shows rates will probably peak close to the end of this year and start to come down. even to the extent to where they are starting to price in the first fed ra

goldman sachs and mauftdicrosoft weighing the most. the nasdaq getting hit even harder on those rising rates we're seeing in the treasury market down almost 3% right now. we're looking at another week of declines the longest losing streak for the dow since back in the 1930s. take a look at the sectors weighing most right now on the s&p 500. you've got everything down except for staples that's the highest performing sector consumer discretionary is the worst and pretty much all the components there from travel names even which have held up relatively well to amazon.com and tesla. if you think it's ugly here, look at the action in europe they're also dealing with higher inflation and coming, rising interest rates that has spiked yields in places like italy and spain we saw the destruction in the market after today's u.s. cpi report germany, 3% declines we'll be all over the sell-off with great guests to help you navigate it, including former federal reserve chairman roger ferguson, barry knapp, tony crecenzi and rebecca patterson eric fr

. >>> gas prices going up with no relief in sight, why goldman sachs warns it's about to get even worse. >>> see the dramatic moment ukrainian forces bring cnn to a secret location to fire on the battle unfolded.ive look as ♪ >>> good morning to our viewers here in the united states and all around the world, it is wednesday, june 8th. cnn has learned that the most powerful republican in the senate is open to raising the minimum age to buy a semi-automatic weapon from 18 to 21. he has said that in private, but mitch mcconnell has not and won't, it seems, say it in public. it is highly unlikely that it will be part of any agreement on gun safety as talks intensify between democrats and republicans. >>> two weeks ago republican senate cynthia lieu mass of wyoming said she doubted any ideas to curb gun violence would be welcomed in her pro-gun state but now she's signaling an openness to finding legislative solutions because her office has been flooded with calls from con sit stants demanding an end to mass shooting. let's bring in arlette saenz and sunlen serfaty about this. let's talk abo

goldman sachs is saying that there are signs of rising strain of dutch on u.s. households appearing in corporate earnings. target and walmart overestimated consumer demand and are now discounting items to move excess stock. that is likely to hit prices especially in the consumer discretionary and auto industries. panic selling after sri lanka's economic collapse and the war in ukraine hammering frontier market that making the surge in yields more attractive for some investors. according to jp morgan, the average yield for junky and bonds is 90 basis points over treasuries. but there is worry about why bond spreads are easing. haidi: wall street rattled by worries of recession. but the cbo volatility index is well below levels seen in past their markets. let's get to bloomberg's chief rate correspondence for asia, garfield reynolds. what does this actually tell us? garfield: part of what it is telling us is confirming that this is very much produced by what the fed is doing with interest rates. the fed helped to create some extremely high valuations in the post-p

>> that is what goldman sachs is saying. would have to rise before we see any sort of change in consumption patterns. they are paying five dollars a gallon. six -- $6.50 in california. consumers are absorbing these sorts of costs. i think it is worth pointing out that we have seen a change in consumption or consumer sentiment dropping in the u.s.. you can see here that the client is taking us to a record low and a level four we have not seen. -- level fall we have not seen since the recession. >> the greenback is getting hard to hold onto. >> this is from bloomberg intelligence. there is nothing left to fuel japan's currency. we have some sort of sustained intervention from the g7 groups. this could be an overcorrection or overreaction when we see a change of tone from japan's government and the doj. the only chance for the dollar-yen bid is that we are nearing a cycle peak in the greenback. if you do subscribe, you can consider the yen by other channels. shery: the latest on the currency space. we watched the u.s. inflation

goldman sachs. we have underplayed em dynamics.not talking enough about the linkage of the nimby response is all going on around the g3. explain the dynamic of em currencies in china. >> it's a great question. china is in a very different place to the rest of the. as you are seeing central banks around the world hike rates to slow their economy down because of continent -- china's experiences with zero covid they are actually lowering rates in order to support the economy from the shutdowns and that means that the yield advantages is just no longer there. so china is in a very different place. you're seeing pressure on the currencies. i expect that to continue. we would expect to see a number of these currencies underperform the dollar. lisa: this goes to an underlying angst about whether there is a spiral. once a currency starts to weaken the an economy that deteriorates further and there is even less impetus to buy into the nation. >> the tale of emerging markets that have significant dollar financing requirements. market access

goldman sachs warning about overly optimistic outlooks.ine is on the grounds of has been since the early part of this week, leading up to that significant panel. francine: good morning. between the portuguese pasty -- pay street we talked about inflation. this is the panel that governors will be watching. at 2:00 u.k. time, i will be speaking with jay powell, christine lagarde, bailey and karsten. he's been running that inflation special in times of he's telling them they are behind the curve. i'm expecting firecrackers on the panel, a 90 minute panel, into what can be done, how they see inflation and the idea that after 10 years of low inflation, the central banks are seen as the ones that can fix everything. it is backfiring against them. nato secretary-general says the groups leaders will invite's foot -- sweden and finland to join. they have agreed to stick by ukraine to the bitter end. maria is at the nato summit in madrid. what is dominating the discussion? maria: we just heard from that nato secretary-general, setting the tone for t

goldman sachs is preparing to offer foreign-exchange prices that last for days.plans to extend this into the coming weeks. but clients will pay a premium in the form of added spread to reflect the risk that rates will move against goldman-s position. credit suisse shares hit a record low, after analysts say the bank will suffer from funding pressures. barclays analysts say that raising more equity could help credit suisse soft and the impact of upcoming funding headwinds. the lender has been hurt by that archegos and greensill scandals, and a string of profit warnings. shery: and the bear market for bitcoin is now in its docket phase, according to industry watcher glassnote. the leading digital coin appears to have stabilized a little bit. su keenan joins us with the latest. we are hearing more warnings that this may be another crypto winter? su: there is a wide range of views on where we go from here, but the one point of agreement is that we are clearly in bitcoin winter, kicked off by number of events, the fed rate hikes and inflation has been negative for cry

the aipac equity strategist at goldman sachs. been told an effort to approve a partial ban of russian oil imports have hit a snag, that has further delayed a push. u.s. ambassador's neck try to greenlight the package against moscow. the pentagon says new longer-range missiles is providing -- >> it is not to imply the ukrainians are not providing weapons. we have been actively providing security assistance every day since the war started. su: hong kong is bringing back covid restrictions. the rule applies to infections with new omicron subvariants. most mildly ill patients have been allowed to isolate at home. the south korean president's conservative party is set for a decisive election win in the people's power party, they are expected to take 17 posts. that includes the top job in the two biggest cities according to an exit poll. official results are expected in the coming hours. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su