similar circumstances, i don't remember whether it was nato enlargement or serbia, you and i and sam nunn wrote a paper, very, very similar to the one that you are writing now, reminding everybody how important russia was. the problem we have been is similar to the problem that we have now. because some of the answers to that question is not just ugh. it's so what. the big question, so what. we get a lot of people to agree with this general picture of where russia is and why russia could matter to us, if they did the right thing, if we did the right thing. but the probability of that happening, because of the lack of consensus on our side and the disarray on their side is so low that it's very, very hard, i hope this is not what you will encounter, but it's a very, very hard to get people to go beyond so what, when these questions are addressed. >> thank you, arnold. that may well be true, but that doesn't lessen the obligation for us as citizens to do what we can. none of us work in the government, and what we can do is advance what we think is an analytically sound set of propositions,