let's bring in sam stovall, chief investment strategist at standard & poors, gentlemen, it is nice to have you on the program. consumer confidence decline, worse than expected. were you surprised? what does that tell you about investing today, sam? >> the consumer is still nervous. we are ten points below the bottom in consumers confidence we saw in the last bear market. we doubled from march of this year, consumers are still nervous. they are a lagging indicator. pointing bottom usually three months after the fact. >> housing prices have increased. eventually that will feed in? >> sure. the housing index a little bitter again, we are coming up from the deep depths. if we continue to see housing improve that could be reason for better confidence numbers. >> you are watching the fed, correct? >> i would slightly take the other side of the consumer housing debate. i think there is a shadow inventory in housing. the can has been kicked down the road with mortgage modification. 50% of them redefault. we have a week jobs market that has to improve for the consumer who is carrying a heavy d