tonight's market monitor is sam stovall, chief equity strategist at s&p. sam, it was such an ugly third quarter what, does history tell us to expect in the fourth quarter? >> well, actually, history says that we might end up with a fairly favorable fourth quarter because this most recent decline of more than 14% was the tenth time sense world war ii that we had a third-quarter decline in excess of 10%. and in the prior times, the army price change was a gain of 7.2%, and we saw the market rise in eight of those nine bskses. >> tom: so odds are fourth quarter will actually see higher prices from the prices we see tonight. but can the rally last into 2012? >> i don't really think so. i think it's what i would call a tale of two time frame where's we might end up with an endof year rally because we were so oversold in the third quarter. we then bounced back in the fourth quarter. the bar is set fairly low for third-quarter earnings reports and i guess just nobody is really expecting a santa claus rally. we might be pleasantly surprised. but as away head into 2