sam stovall is the chief equity strategist at s&p capital i.q. >> let's talk about the second quarter here. despite today's gain, the s&p 500 is down 3%. that's unusual considering the strong rally we had in the first quarter, isn't it? >> it's a bit unusual. when you go back to world war ii, typically the second quarter is pretty good. but i decided to go back to 1900 because a lot of the most recent years have reminded investors of the 1930s. and going back more than a hundred years, the second quarter is usually down. so in a sense, what we saw was typically what we normally see. >> tom: using history, what are the odds that the s&p 500 could see new highs before the end of the year? >> history says, but does not guarantee that about 80 plus percent of the time, the market posts its high of the career in the second half, and cent% of thseventy percent of t that's in the fourth quarter. and once the presidential election is over, so is the uncertainty, and investors pile back into stocks. >> tom: there's going to be a lot of politicking in the third quarter. how could that impact th