sam stovall is here to get through the possible dog days ahead. .5 from second quarter gdp growth. you actually think it reduces chances the fed will come up with some loser policy to stoke the economy? >> yes, dennis, i think that's right. or at least delay it a little bit. some people are hoping that fed chairman bernanke will make some favorable comments when he speaks at the jackson holce v symposium on friday. at the fomc, when they members come out with 2014, but there's a press conference coming up and we had the better numbers gdp today and better than expected s&p case-shiller numbers come out earlier in the week. and unless they are convinced that we are, you know, slipping once again, we think there's a possibility they might hold off. >> now, at the same time, the new report out today shows that inflation is running at only 1.7% and that's low, low inflation gives the fed more room to maneuver. didn't the minutes in the most recent fed meeting kind of show that more members were in favor of acting sooner not later? >> you're absolutely

sam stovall, what do you make of that? financials are a risk on sector in this market?a risk on, especially if you're focussing on europe. a lot of what's made up of in the success the banks. it's an indication that people are feeling better about loan volume goat, and maybe the economy will be improving in the quarters ahead. >> what do you make of today's action, is this market getting tired finally. >> you used to be able to handicap the markets, but that said, when we hit 1426, i don't think any trader was surprised. >> a four year high. and then you look at google and apple, they're up 100 points a piece in the last two weeks alone. so you figure this might get a break right here. >> so the in fact that we're bumping up against that and pulling back again, will we see a correction in this market you think? >> i think you could see a sell off in this market out a doubt. it's been so fast so quick, 12 weeks out a break. still in august and a lot of guys taking holidays. >> it's a possibility. our believe is that maybe we come back to 1390. certainly no more than 1370

stevie, i have way more hair than dick grasso, what do you think about what sam stovall says?'re going to stick with this theme the whole show. i'm not going to fight back. sam, when you look at the election year cycle everyone points to obviously the s&p moving higher going into year end. you have a 1450 target at the s&p for year end. we're right about there. 3 percentage points, 4 percentage points away. usually that's because the incumbent is spending a boat load of money going into the election. is that true? if so, wouldn't you see a little bit of a pullback if ben bernanke disappoints at jackson hole at the end of the week? >> i think certainly we could be seeing a bit of a pullback. we've advanced more than 10% off of the early june lows. we really haven't digested some of these gains. actually in this week's report, today's report, i showed a chart when you look at the average price performance of all election year markets since 1952, we normally go through a bit of a digestion of gains between now and sometime about three weeks before the election itself. and then we

we have sam stoval. and ed from quantitative associates. sai sam, is investor confidence down? >> it is, but not as much as it has been. the it was down to 22%, and now it's up to about 32% bulls. so it's still realtively low from where we are in this recovery. >> scott said it's the rodney dangerfield rally because it's getting to respect. >> ed, can you solve the great market mystery for us? why are we almost at a four and a half year closing high for the dow. there's no resolution outs of europe, the fiscal cliff, the economy is sluggish. >> i admit this rally has caught us by surprise. the second quarter earnings were okay, and revenues were not good at all, this is a perfect case. we're on track to get almost a 20% gain this year, and it still feels very nerve racking. >> what do you want us to do? >> we've been sticking to guidelines all month. we think there is a real risk in europe that we could get a shock. it would be very hard to react to. if you have a lot of money to manage, you have to stick closer to guidelines. >> so, sam, where do you want to be? let's assume w