. >> and i'm sam stovall. thanks for joining us. >> cold rain, my favorite! >> everybody's favorite. we might do it again tonight. forecast for rain in the o's game. this morning, cold without the rain. we don't have to worry about that on the way to work or school to start the day today. 41 in the airport. managed to dip into the mid 30s. not around baltimore. today, increasing clouds. late this afternoon and evening, chance for rain showers again. the high temperature, 57 degrees. could be rain tonight. >>> not bad as you head out this monday morning. at a couple of things to start with. in abbeyton, hidden stream drive, an accident there. take pulaski highway or 95. looking good once you get to the north side of the beltway right at 62 miles per hour. through the parkville region, 63 to green spring. jfx checking out okay. and we're looking at speeds on average of 59 miles per hour travelling from 795 from i-70. take a look at drive times. 95 merge down to the harvard tunnel toll. five minutes to go to the 895 split to ft. mchenry and 20 minutes on the bel

>> with us today are sam stovall and our own bob pisani. ing to come down to earnin earnings, right, which starts tomorrow? >> tomorrow. the bar is not just set low, it's set below, under water. >> below dirt. >> off the lows. capital iq is forecasting a 1.3% deline. it was down to 1.8%. big deal. i think some of the numbers underneath are a little more telling, such as right now the early beat ratio at 58% is below the average of 62%. in terms of guidance, those that are guiding negatively are 3.3 to 1 for those guiding positively. >> that sounds very negative for the stock market. >> well, i think it's baked in right now, or a lot of that is probably baked in. the real question is, whether we're likely to be seeing qe3 as the trough -- >> how can it be baked in if we're sitting at 4 1/2 year highs? how is that baked in? >> exactly. >> i think nothing is really new. what has come out yet that's going to tell us things are a lot worse than we anticipated? materials are expected to show 20% earnings decline. energy down 16%. >> bottom line, i

sam stovall is chief equity strategist for s&p capital. remind us what your target is, sam, for the year-end. >> hello, simon. our target for the year end from our investment policy deis something on the order of 1450 but our chief technician mark arbiter believes based on channels he's been looking at, reversal pat teshs, he thinks the market could be closing up toward 1500, 1550 by the end of this year or early 2012. >> so 6% easily in view of what he's saying there. >> yeah, the feeling is basically that maybe we continue with this digestion of the 15% advance we saw off the june 1 bottom. we look to come down anywhere from 5.5% to 6%, and once the uncertainty of the election is lifted, if we start to hear about some movement in the lame duck toward resolving or delaying the sequestration, et cetera, we could end up with a nice santa claus rally. >> sam, it's mike murphy. debris with the thesis you have there but the real thing that's holding this market back right now is the fiscal cliff, and just wondering if you factor anything in the

. >> and i'm sam stovall. >> the average high is 69, 70s, 15 degrees below average. if you're going the game, hate to say it, there will be

welcome back to 11 news today, i'm sam stovall. >> i'm mindy basara. thanks for joining us, chilly.ore rain in the forecast. >> tony and i were kigd. i'm a dinosaur learning how to use the ipad. tony is here saying, is that too far? >> well, over here. >> yeah. >> the fans again tonight, if you're going to the game, i have rain to talk about again. might be just like last night. so i don't know if it will be enough to delay the game or cancel the rain or anything like that. during the day today, it's okay. chilly. 41 in the airport, in the 30 nz the northwest suburbs. frost if you're watching us in frederick. in the day today, increasing clouds, make it up to 57 this afternoon. average highs is 69. there will be chance for rain tonight. more about that and the seven-day. >> you know we have a better chance, right, tony? >> you agree. >> i'm doing my business. >> still on the light side out there. not bad as you travel this morning. the one problem i noticed in tawneytown, if you're travelling along 194, all lanes are closed there. that 's the due to a road has hard. watch for that t

sam stovall is here now. the market is absolutely on fire today. up another 118 points. you think we could go up another seven-12% from today's levels? >> i think that is a possibility. we look at history. we overlay that with economics, fundamentals and the technical picture to see whether history is likely to rhyme or forget the words. right now our feeling is we could see the market moving up between 1535 and even 1600 before the beginning of 2013. melissa: the stock market continues to define logic. there was more talk about being in the midst of another recession. stocks continued to move higher. i know a lot of it is because qt one, two and three, do you think that is enough to hold it? >> we find prices tend to lead fundamentals. not that we are heading towards recession and we just do not know it yet, maybe we are heading towards recovery and we just do not know it yet. that is why people will be focusing so closely on the third-quarter reporting season. the bar is underground. we are expecting a mere 2% the client. the question is, will we be getting that near 1

who think will will be multiple expansion and hitting the trough, the note s&p put out before, sam stovall was on earlier in the show. i don't get it. i don't see where it's going to come from. i think this market has just been looking for a reason to sell off. i think somewhere along the way, earning season will provide a pretty good excuse. >> although -- >> michele -- >> yeah, go ahead. >> i was going to say, if you do get that pullback in this earning season, and you may after the first week or two of results. we hear from the material sec for right up front. companies like alocoa. those numbers are expected to be down 20% year over year for material sector. you could get good news late in the earning season. consumer discretionary companies, retailers report later in the season. they could have good results. that might mean it could be good to buy on the disappointment of the first two weeks as we get rebound on stronger results, 7% gains, we're likely to see in consumer discretionary. >> i think the buy signal could come with que quech-- qe4, 5, 6. i would see the fed accelerating qe