this is closest to the san andreas fault. many people believe that the closer you are to default, the greater the ground motion might be. that is a portion that is a south westerly portion of san francisco that has some special earthquake hazards. we are here to talk about the geology of this area. why don't you tell us about what is going on? >> there is a giant step here at the edge of the escarpment, the edge of the landslide. all the land to the west of us is part of a landslide that is upwards of 200 feet deep. it goes underneath the ocean. it causes damage and it was mapped by the earliest geologists'. there are many kinds of rocks here. there is a big sequence of merced formation. this is a base in deposit that was formed by the interaction at the end of the continental margin. >> this is just on top. this is the same material that we were looking at at the last site. you can see it is on our way to the last side. it is deposited here by wind. it is 40-50 feet thick. this acts as a big sponge. the water flows through a

add the san andreas and a startling number of lesser-known faults, the san francisco region is ripe forgo in the bay area. we jokingly like to say you can run but you can't hide. that's sort of the truth. >> reporter: the san andreas fault brought on the great san francisco earthquake of 1906. it's been estimated that 3,000 people died. that's the kind of quake, much bigger, much more destructive than the one in 1989, that seismologist figure could be on its way. >> we've estimated in the next 30 years a 63% chance, two out of three, that we'll have one or more magnitude 6, 7 or larger earthquakes. >> reporter: while earthquake scientists can make estimates, what they can't do is make predictions. >> optimistic that we come up with some system to predict the earthquakes. the more we study the problem, the more we realize that it's a false hope. >> reporter: but once the earth has started moving, scientists may be able to send an alert that shock waves are on the way. >> we call it earthquake early warning. it's based on the fact that earthquakes take a certain time to occur. they propag

. >> but, don't expect the san andreas fault system to trigger anything bigger than a magnitude 9. >>the community would say an 8.0 is the largest earthquake we would get on the san a andreas. they are coupled from each other and not producing great earthquakes. >> a big earthquake here would be a magnitude á6 and just the aftershocks of the great japanese earthquake have been rolling in at the rate of one magnitude 6 every hour. in san francisco, i'm science editor, brian, eyewitness news. >>> a couple teenagers have been arrested in connection with with the beating of a cal train passenger. the man was beaten last friday at the redwood city station by a group of people. 18 to 19-year-olds are both charged with robbery and assault. the victim, a had 7-year-old man is still in critical condition. police collected evidence and leads that will lead to the arrest of the other suspects. >>> in the corruption investigation inside the san francisco police department will be turned over to the feds. da, george gascone who was police chief during the alleged misconduct admits there's a confli

we looked carefully at a magnitude 7.8 on the southern san andreas fault.n-mile deep rupture along several hundred mile long section at most, so the magnitude isn't as great as in these big subduction events. >> scientists say it's hard to predict when and where. is there a general time frame for when a large earthquake could happen off the coast of california or the pacific northwest? >> well, the recurrence between these big earthquakes generally on the order of 150 to a few hundred years. the last one in the pacific northwest, 1700, over 300 years there. and on the southern part of the san andreas fault, over 300 years since the last big earthquake there. so generally speaking, we're -- some of my colleagues like to say we're overdue. that implies that earthquakes are fairly regularly, and unfortunately, they are not. they are highly irregular. >> as we've seen over the past few months, coming in a bunch in the past year. ken, thank you for your time. ken with the u.s. geological survey. and we're back with more after these messages. happy birthday to yo

two biggest earthquakes in the bay area are the hayward and san andreas. s how big and how likely it is to happen in the near future. >> the 1989 quake in san francisco was 6.9. scientists expect a 6.7 or larger within the next 30 years and if it happens on the san andreas fault it could be as strong as 7.8 quake of 1906. >> there would be tens of thousands of buildings badly damaged. 250,000 san franciscans on that order who would not be able to return to their homes. >> tom cobin finished a study commissioned by the san francisco. the city is particularly vulnerable. >> in san francisco the character of this weakness is the ground floor, whether parking or whether there are distances is weaker than the floor of vault. >> 90% of the city is residential where most of the risk can exists. other fault is the hayward that lies densely populated part of the east bay. >> it would be very strong shaking, cities in the south of fremont and up to pinole. >> seismologists say the hayward fault is capable of 7.3 and overdue. on average, they have a major shift every

scientists expect a 6.7 or larger within 30 years firkts happens on san andreas fault it could be as g as 7.8 quake of 1906. >> there could be tens of thousands of buildings badly damaged and 250,000 san franciscoins perhaps and this engineer just finished a steady commissioned by the city of san francisco. the city says is vulnerable. >> in san francisco a weakness is that ground floor where there is parking or businesses is weaker than the floors above. >> the study warned the city 90% of the buildings are residential. that is where most risk exists. bay area other major fault is hayward lying beneath the most densely-populated park of the east bay. >> this would be a near source earthquake with strong shaking and there is cities from south up through pinole. >> seismologists say it's overdue, the fault has a major shift every 140 years and has been 143 since the last one. this professor of architecture at uc berkeley's special is construction practices in japan and u.s.. she says the city of berkeley has done a good job of giving homeowners incentives to get prepared. >> to put in

the fourth leg of the square, the fourth side is where the san andreas and the kcascadia forms. that hasn't ruptured. so now is the time when people should start thinking about what might happen if, one, the san n andreas or the cascadia fault ruptures. if either ruptures there could be major problems. >> do you see it as a possibility or do you believe it is inevitable. >> it is inevitable. the question that troubles everyone is precise bli whly wh. the u.s. geological survey says we can't predict it with accuracy but says the hayward fault is ripe for a rupture within the next quarter century. the san andreas fault, no one is sure. the cascadia subduction zone would cause not just terrifying problems on land but would generate a tsunami. that's a big problem. >> if the san andreas fault were to rupture that would not trigger a tsunami? >> not essentially. most of the san andreas runs on land and it's mostly under land. if that were to rupture it would cause freeways and bridges to collapse as the disaster did in 1989. but cascadia is under ground. the problem there is tsunamis.

the san andrea's fault was in 1906 so it is ready. and it is ready to go which does not preclude it happening on the and the other fault. >>pam: the earthquake it is of course causing major problems for travelers. try to get out of japan. teresa estacio is at sfo. >> travelers finally made it home. hear, their stories coming out. continuing coverage and >>pam: www.kron4.com cowe will be back. california should be proud. we were the first to ban smoking on airplanes. the first to have smoke-free bars and restaurants. all while saving over $86 billion in health care costs... and over a million lives. we've done a good job. but even if you were born today, you'd still grow up in a world where tobacco kills more people... than aids, drugs, alcohol, murder and car crashes... combined. we have a lot more work to do. it's not too well done? nope. but it is a job well done. what are you reading, sweetie? her diary. when you're done, i'd love some feedback. sure. your mom and i read that thing cover-to-cover. loved it. thanks. would you mind i

that area is right next to the san andreas fault. it is a dangerous area. you do not want big construction right there. thank you very much. supervisor mar: thank you. next speaker. >> supervisors, my name is ronaldo visali. i have lived in parkmerced for 40 years, since i was 3. today was a beautiful day. it was sunny. birre

. >> just 60 miles from the san andreas fault, the nuclear plant. it turned out electricity. gas and lek tries says this would survive any earthquake up to a 7.5. >> we over built. >> tweeds la and san diego, southern california edits and operates this plant. supplying electricity to 1.5 million households. it can withstand anything and it has a 0-foot wall to hold off a potential tsunami. >> we mean the ability to briefly. you want to shut it down and protect the public, we can do that. >> nothing in california is pectsed to do that. we are well prepared for any natural disaster. that's what the japanese assumed. >> it does tell you that your assumptions may be wrong. i think we really need to go back and take a welcome at our systems and make sure our assumptions are valley. >> in california, there are multiple protections in place. centers are run by the government and they should detect any radiation leaking from here or abroad. if there is, the department of health says it has plenty of potassium iodide. they are handed out regularly. will is no need to hand out any of th

they are the san andreas, hayward, rogers creek fault. they're located in urban areas. experts believe the rogers creek fault located in the santa rose area will be the next one to cause a major earthquake because a lot of tension is built up underground. there's a major difference between the japan earthquake and the loma prieta, the one we experienced back in 1989. >> in the loma prieta, we were very close santa cruz, san jose and we then saw lots of shaking in the san francisco peninsula. the devastation in san francisco was very localized due to particular types of ground motion that caused strong shaking. >> reporter: the map you see here shows where the quake struck in japan and how far it struck below sea level. everything is computerized, but take a look at what the japanese quake looks like on paper. it looks pretty devastating and another thing that is pretty frightening, seismologists tell me that we know of the four earthquakes i told you about. there are many more that we just don't know about. we live in earthquake country. reporting live, cheryl hurd, nbc

that area is right next to the san andreas fault. it is a dangerous area. you do not want big construction right there. thank you very much. supervisor mar: thank you. next speaker. >> supervisors, my name is ronaldo visali. i have lived in parkmerced for 40 years, since i was 3. today was a beautiful day. it was sunny. birds are chirping. a demolition of my home would be really a sad day for me and my brother. i grew up there. those of the streets i have lived on pretty much my whole life. i just can't see this happening. this whole plan is just the outrageous. i don't know whose pipe dream this is. i believe that someone's 6 -- sick and twisted dream is trying to make a reality. but this is not san francisco. this is not healthy for san francisco. this is not the san francisco we all dwell in, you know? you are talking about 30 years of construction. you are going to have people sick, you know? think about it. that is all i have to save. i just don't want my home demolished. it is my home. thank you. >> good afternoon, a board of supervisors. i am a membe

. >> reporter: just 60 miles from the san andreas fault is the diablo canyon nuclear plant. electricity. pacific gas and electric says this would survive an earthquake up to 7.5. >> like all u.s. plants we overbuilt. >> reporter: between l.a. and san diego, southern california edison operates the san onofre plant supplying electricity to 1.5 million households. they say its plant can stand up to 7.0 magnitude quake and has a 30-foot wall to hold off a potential tsunami. >> we mean our ability to shut down and maintain it safely. certainly you are not intending to operate the plant during an emergency but you want to shut it down and protect the public. we can do that. >> reporter: none of the faults in california are expected to produce anything close to the quake that has devastated japan. state and federal officials say we are well prepared for any natural disaster but that's also what the japanese assumed about their own nuclear reactors. >> it does tell you that your assumptions about safety may be wrong and i think we really need to go back and take a look at our system

. >> reporter: it's within 60 miles of the san andreas fault and much closer to at least three smaller. one of them the shore line is less than a mile away and was discovered just three years ago. pacific gas and electric says it was built to withstand a 7.5 earthquake and none of the faults in the region is expected to produce anything bigger. but the japanese also assumed their nuclear plants would hold up. says victor galinski, a former member of the nuclear regulatory commission. >> it does tell you that your assumptions about safety may be wrong and we really need to take a look at our systems and make sure that our assumptions are still valid. >> reporter: california isn't the only part of the country that have earthquakes. what geologists call seismic hot spots are scattered across the country. there are 104 commercial reactors in the u.s. including those operating in earthquake zones. and though diablo canyon sits right on the coast, geologists say a tsunami as big as the one that hit japan is unlikely here. john blackstone, avila beach, california. >> this morning on "the earl

just 60 miles from the san andreas plant is the diablo canyon nuclear plant. for 25 years it has turned out electricity. they say this will withstand any earthquake up to a 7.5. >> like all u.s. nuclear reactors they are over built. >> they operate the plant supplying electricity to 1 1/2 million house holds, edison says its plant can withstand anything up to a 7.0 and it has a 30-foot wall to hold off a potential tsunami. >> when we talk about with standing, certainly you're not infeignedding to operate the plant during an emergency but you want to shut it down and protect the public. we can do that. >> none of the faults in california are expected to produce anything close to the quake that has devastated japan. state and federal officials say we're well prepared for any natural disaster. but that's all so what the japanese assumed about their own nuclear reactors. >> it does tell you that your assumptions about safety may be wrong and i think we really need to go back and take a look at our systems and make sure that our assumptions are still valid. >> repo

san andreas, potentially 1,332 road closures. hayward, 1,138. and calaveras, 573.says you should be prepared to be stuck where you are for at least three days. >> it would be very wise to have disaster kits in multiple places. >> reporter: that means at work, at home and in your car. and have a backup plan for your kids. you may not be able to reach them for days as well. >> we haven't had one here in so long that was like a major quake that people tent to forget about it. >> reporter: that is until everything stops. garvin thomas, nbc bay area news. >> that is unnerving. >>> this sunday at 11:00, we have a wheel whodunit. it reads straight out of a novel. a dirty cop, a p.i., attractive female investigators and the takedown of a respected narcotics unit in the east bay. you'll hear on sunday about the confidential informant working on the inside. the cryptic e-mails and the mild-mannered magazine reporter who suddenly found himself a central character in one of the biggest corruption scandals to ro thun's sda ayt at's sunday at 11:00 after "celebrity apprentice."

. >> reporter: diablo canyon is within about 60 miles of the san andreas fault and much closer to ateast three smaller faults, one of them, the shoreline, is less than a mile away and was discovered just three years ago. pacific gas & electric, which owns the plant, says it was built to withstand a 7.5 earthquake and none of the faults in the region is expected to produce anything bigger. but the japanese also assumed their nuclear plants would hold up says victor glyn galinsky, a former member of the nuclear regulatory commission. >> it tells you your assumptions about safety may be wrong and we need to go back and look at our systems and make sure our assumption are still valid. >> reporter: california isn't the only part of the country can have earthquakes, what geologists call seismic hot spots are scattered across the country. there are 104 commercial nuclear reactors in the u.s., including those operating in earthquake zones, and there are other natural hazards, too. in 1992, hurricane andrew knocked out power to the turkey point plant south of miami for five days but the plant

thing that most worries scientists is the threat of a huge earthquake along the southern end of the san andreas fault. california faces a 94% probability of a magnitude 7 or greater quake in the next 30 years. in one scenario, a quake measuring magnitude 7.8 would leave 1800 people dead, would sever vital utility and transportation lifelines, and cause billions of dollars in damage. and as the los angeles county fire search and rescue team learned recently in new zealand, an earthquake doesn't have to be the big one to be deadly. the christchurch quake, magnitude 6.3, was close to the surface. the ground shaking violent. >> buildings resemble los angeles, california. there are some buildings right next to buildings that are down that have survived the earthquake. >> reporter: a warning for californians. even with building codes that focus on seismic safety, many structures are still no match for violent quakes. among the rescuers headed to japan, several dog teams trained to detect people beneath the rubble and water rescue experts, because of all the flooding caused by the tsunami. brian. >> g

though we know that is the san francisco earthquake it actually affected more than 300 miles of the san andreas fault. the region that ruptured in that earthquake and of course it was only magnitude 7.8 so for an earthquake of this size magnitude 8.9 japan what we can hundred miles alcc1: of the seduction zone off of the east coast of japan has ruptured in this snooerk i want to remind people as we're watching a lot of the footage of the wave going in over what seems to be some think you tory but icc1: saw some pictures a moment ago, this wave has hit some urban areas and there was i know one picture where we saw dozens of cars which were under water as a result of the tsunami which has come in so certainly a lot of people a lot of people in the way of this water as it came in. >> bill is it unusual that they e got a 7.4 and thencc1: got a greater earthquake of 8.9 just a few days later? >> caller: it is not unprecedented but there was nothing that was clear that would connect it, this 7.2 earthquake would had been followed by such a great earthquake just a few days later. certainly seismologis

the two biggest earthquake falls in the bay area are the hayward and san andreas. looked into how likely it is to happen in the near future. >> reporter: the 1989 quake in san francisco was 6.9. scientists expect a 6.7 or larger within the next 30 years and it it happens on the and andreas fault it could be as strong as the 7.8 quake of 1906. >> there would be he tens of thousands of buildings badly damaged. there would be 250,000 san franciscoians perhaps on that order who would not be able to return are to their homes. >> reporter: tom tobin is segui yes technical engineer who just finished a study commissioned by the city of san francisco. the city he said is particularly vulnerable. >> the characteristic is that the ground floor where there is parking or where there are businesses is weaker than the floors above. >> the study warned the city that 90% of its buildings are residential and that is where most of the risk exists. the bay area's other major fault is the hayward which lies directly benext the most densely populated part of the east bay in would be a v

san andreas, potentially 1,332 road closures. hayward, 1,138. and calaveras, 573. be prepared to be stuck where you are for at least three days. >> it would be very wise to have disaster kits in multiple places. >> that means at work, at home, and in your car. and have a backup plan for your kids who may not be able to reach them for days as well. >> we haven't had one here in so long that people tend to forget bt it. >> that is until everything stops. garvin thomas, "today in the bay." >> in case you're wondering about the the roads in your neighborhood and along your commute, we did find an interactive map that you can check at the association of bay area government. you can find it on their website. >>> much more ahead coming up on "today in the bay." still ahead, who needs brawn when you have plenty of brains? the bay area city ranked number one in terms of falling in love. >>> and we'll take you outside to this view from oakland where the showers are beginning to let up just a bit. the wind will die down as well. >>> good sunday morning to you. live pictures f

. >> california has significant risk, san andreas fault. a fault more like in new zealand. changes, the kinds of events we expect to have in those faults are slightly different. california, we're not going to get a big tsunami producing event. pacific northwest we might. >> we could? when you look at the possibil y possibilities of what could happen. we have heard over and over again that japan is incredibly prepared for these events and the toll could have been far worst, even though it is terrible this morning. how prepared is the united states? >> we are, i think we're not at the same level of preparation as japan. it's just not as a national problem it's not something that's on the radar as much as it is in japan. we do have very good observing systems in place with the u.s. geological survey, the national level network and in certain regions, in california and the pacific northwest we're really building up our capabilities to both observe the kinds of events that are happening, so we can learn more from them, and also start to link them together into the winds of, say,

as you know the san andreas earthquakes tend to be a slip so the motion is horizontal. whereas this particular earthquake involved the pacific plate diving under the japanese islands. this is probably one of the worst places for tsunami waves to hit because it has a lot of bays, a lot of harbors and in bays and harbors, they tend to funnel the tsunami waves and make them much bigger. >> reporter: heading east the wave roared across the pacific. >> in the open ocean the tsunami waves go at about the speed of a modern jet liner. about 500 miles an hour. >> reporter: the damage seen in other parts of the california coast were absent in the san francisco bay because after the water rushed through the funnels that is the golden gate it spread out across the expanse of the bay. the energy dissipated. >> is there any reason to suspect that what happened in japan could trigger something here? >> i think most geoscientists would say unlikely. >> reporter: this quake really crossed into territory almost to the nines. the 2004 indonesia earthquake was the biggest so far. the richt

. >> right on the san andreas fault. >> right on the san andreas fault.be catastrophic. downtown los angeles flattened. 40% could withstand a 8.0 earthquake. 15% of tall buildings are at risk. and could, in fact, collapse. >> does that mean we're not as well-prepared as the japanese in tokyo? >> exactly. the japanese are world's best in terms of preparing for earthquakes. look at what happened to kobe. look at what happened to sendai. and look at the casualties in los angeles. 3,000 dead. up to 50,000 injured. and the fires, 6,000 to 7,000 raging fires out of control. remember that in san francisco in 1906, my grandfather witnessed it. fires caused more damage than the earthquake itself. >> and there's also the concern of a tsunami. and what that would mean for the areas around los angeles, starting with l.a. harbor. >> l.a. harbor would experience the worst damaging case of a tsunami. a wall of water 15 feet tall going two to three miles inland. santa monica would not experience as much damage because of the geometry. but orange county, newport beach, wo

. >>> scientists have warned for several years that the san andreas fault is due for a major earthquakethis morning on the "today" show, former geologist and now best-selling author simon winchester says california will be the scene of the most devastating quake to come. >> it is inevitable. the question that troubles everyone is precisely when. the u.s. geological survey which monitors these things very carefully but said we can't predict with any degree of accuracy at all is now saying that the haywood fault which travels under the cities of oakland and berkeley in the east bay, is ripe for eruption within the next quart aer century. >> we talk about that all the time. winchester says california is taking the threat of a devastating earthquake too lightly. find out why. more of his interview coming up at 7:15. >> we told you earlier that workers are in japan are trying to prevent damage from another nuclear reactor. peter hosemann. can you hear me? >> yes, i can hear you. >> all right. the thing we want to ask you, should anyone here in the bay area be worried about any potential fall

>> the diablo canyon nuclear power plant was initially designed to withstand major quake on the san andreasult. that was the one scientist knew about in 1968 and 70 miles away. in 1971 the discovery of the offshore l fault forced redesign at diablo then two years ago scientist discovered another one. just half mile from the plant. >> it runs very close to the shoreline. that's why it is called the shoreline fault. >>reporter: thomas broker u.s. gs led the team that discovered the shoreline fault. >> it ends near or at cross by fault. we haven't really determined that precisely at this time. >> original estimate of the fault put the earthquake potential at maximum 7.5. pg&e seismologist petition the nrc to lower the number. >> in the 6.0to 6.5 region for maximum earthquake. >> director of the earthquake science center in menlo park doesn't agree with the company numbers. >> we would say it would still be capable of a magnitude 7.5 earthquake. >> nuclear regulatory commission says the seismologist will study pg&e projections. in the mean time san luis obispo state senator sam blakeslee callin

so for example, the san andreas fault is the boundary between the pas civic and north american plates. where the pas civic plate moves north relative to south-- to north american plate. in japan, the pas civic plate is trying to go underneath japan. it's going back into the earth, being stuffed in. that's the reason we have earthquakes in oregon and washington, the same sort of earthquakes in alaska. it also makes the volcanoes in these countries. >> rose: what kind of warning does the earth give? >> the earth doesn't give us any warning. that's what is so hard about all of this. we don't know exactly when they break. we know over time the motion gets stored up. but it's kind of like trying to bend a stick. you know event allly it's going to break but it's hard to tell exactly when it's goinging to break. so we know to within a couple hundred years which isn't all that useful that we're goinging to have big earthquakes in that part of the world. so the japanese have been preparing for it. but they don't know when. >> rose: and what is an aftershock mean and what is the impact here? >>

the ones you mentioned in california are very near the san andreas fault. one of them is right next to the ocean. so, a giant earthquake along the fault line, we could be looking at the same thing here and the rest of the country is downwind. arizona has one, what happened if it went down wind? i think that nuclear power is a good form of energy but it is very dangerous compared to solar energy. i also wonder why people still do not explore those solar powered satellites from the 1980's. host: we appreciate your calling. twitter.com/c-spanwj is our twitter address. we would love to hear from you there. here is one of you were riding -- i am asking the japanese authority to tell the truth about what this link -- about what is leaking. silver spring, maryland. caller: i am sure that engineers to study what happened in japan will come up with better plants that will be more resistant if there are future earthquakes. the problem that the industry really has is that it started with three mile island and shortly after, "the china syndrome" came out." that effecti

san francisco skyline reflected in a puddle. the city is soaked tonight, and the morning commute is going to be an absolute washout. >> hail hammered the peninsula this afternoon. andrea h up loaded this video to you report powered by youtube. and with all of these storms the potential for mudslide in the bay area is at its highest level of the season. >> the usgs says the ground especially in areas like the oaknd la -- oakland hills is 90% saturated meaning trees and hills could give way at anytime. >> let's go to sandhya patel. >> it is going to be a rough ride for the morning commute. let's show you live doppler 7hd, and right now we are seeing some rain. it is heavy in spots. let me take you in here to the santa cruz mountains where they are getting some very heavy rainfall. this cell here, i'm tracking it now, and it is headed heading into freedom by 11:25, and it will get nasty out there as we head toward the morning commute. you can see around a mount hamill top, they are getting some snow indicated in pink. and as we pan around we have moderate to heavy rain. it is just near the golden gate bridge. this is near sausalito around 11:15. the heavier rain is comin

san diego. hello, andrea. can you hear us? all rights, we are going to move on. jackson, mississippi. >> hello. how are you? i am calling. i heard the last panel talking about the issues that are against women everything that seems to be talked about is against women or against quality of life. i would really like to see big republicans address what is facing our country, which is terrible -- i would like to see the republicans address what is facing our country which is terrible unemployment. i am not interested in hearing what they are going to do to stop abortion. it is the law of the land. it is not something in the top priority. 77% of americans believe women have the right to choose. why are we wasting our time, money, and talent on this? why don't we get to be real issues that will help a lot of americans. >> is there someone you would like to see on the presidential ballots? >> i guess if i were to choose one, it would be mitt romney. he is sophisticated enough to be president. he is intelligent enough. he has the business background. out of the group tha