trading lower 0.6 of 1%. >>> check in with rick santelli with "the santelli exchange."ey, rick. >> hi, carl. you know, we've been at this intersection many times. a technical point, looks like ten year yields and indeed the entire treasury curve could make a bee line for higher rates. hasn't materialized. look at this chart starting in august 2013 and take a good look at it. i'll try to give you my rendition on the whiteboard moment tearily. at an important crossroads. now that you've looked at that chart, look at my chart. the salient features you're supposed to know are in september of 2013, and the last day new year's eve 2013 eventually pap ouioui -- a wee under. long in january handsomely paid in the first six weeks of the year, made your year being long treasuries. but since then a couple important things. significant low yields at 244. we ultimately violated those in august. why were they so significant? we did many "santelli exchange" on them. significant. when you take out such an important low yield point you, in essence, energize the market and indeed you did

carl back to you. >> let's get to the cme group in the meantime and talk to rick santelli and the santelli> i'm going to talk mostly about the upcoming ecb meeting. but it is not a unique story. it's a central banking story. and when i was talking to ie rye harris today. he mentioned and everybody is passing around an ft article. merkel has the duty to stop draghi's illegal meddling by sims. >> and let's think back. the issue is that central bankers have moved from being nudgers on monetary policy so basically fiscal policy. and in the u.s. it is every bit the same. and there is lots of statalk an even comment bis ben bernanke and janette yellen and many comment commentators that the things needs to go in that direction. and/or in this country. because there is a log jam. things can't get done at least to the liking of the masses, the citizens the voters. but what really that has done is it's taken the voters out of game. if central bankers didn't have such a large foray into politics, politicsings would have had to sink or swim on the merit or lack therein on policies that weren't creatin

right after the stimulus bill passed in 2009, rick santelli had a rant on the floor of the chicago stockxchange. he said our founding fathers would be turning over in their graves and we needed to have a tea party like they did. rantre talking about his and we decided to have a conference call after his rant, 20 of 2009n february for about 23 people. had 48lowing friday, we tea parties around the country with artie 5000 people in attendance. >> where were you living? >> i was living in atlanta. there were two other people from atlanta on that conference call. we knew there would be at least one tea party in atlanta. >> what was your status? >> one of the things that rick santelli said, he asked the people who were standing behind him, if they wanted to pay for a home that their neighbors could no longer afford. really is what motivated me to be involved. that part. my husband and i had just moved into a rental home in february of 2009. we had come out of personal bankruptcy and lost everything. bankruptcy,fter the we were offered fannie or freddie money, i don't remember which it was, to

ji first, rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> looking at the dax. basically gone up pretty must straight up since the beginning of august. i'm looking at what's going on in the dollar yen. and, of course, headlines. geopolitics, sam zell. i've come to realize that at the end of the line, qe is the new oz! dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future.you. thank you for being my hero and my dad. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance could be one of them. if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. whenwork with equity experts who work with regional experts who work with portfolio management experts that's when expertise happens. mfs. because there is no expertise without collaboration. where the reward was that what if tnew car smelledit card and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one

with the "santelli exchange." >> hi, carl.ly is an unbelievable trade when you think about it. so many websites are, and blogs, completely jumping in on the story. a good story to jump on whether zero heads talking about the bubblicious notions what's going on in the fixed income market. southern european paper specifically. let's kind of run through the gambit. historically, central banks have had an issue with bubbles. look at the tech wreck in 2000, alan greenspan by lowering interest rates certainly dug a very quick off exit ramp to what could have been a more problematic scenario. remember when we went through the credit crisis, a lot of involvement by those that weren't directly involved in the issues. unlike the tech wreck. if you own tech stocks, you were just out of luck. a good audit trail. exchanges new who owned it, who didn't. margin issues and actually considering everything, it went pretty smooth. look at whether in the industrial revolution or the computer revolution, or the internet revolution, they all ended

all lower, anywhere from 2% to 3%. >> the cme and rick santelli for the first santelli exchange of the'd like to welcome our special guest, former governor of the bank of canada. and the reason i think that mr. david dodge is the right man to have on today in his tenure, by the way, ended in 2008, because of some differences in canada regarding interaction between government and housing. thank you for taking the time today, david. >> my pleasure, rick. >> all right. you know, every article i read of late talks about how the canadian housing market is just too red hot, many believe, analysts global, international, believe it has to take a step backward. before we get into the granular, what are your thoughts on the state of the canadian housing market? >> well, certainly there are some cities where the prices are very high, vancouver, toronto, and moving up fairly sharply, calgary and the other western cities. there is excess demand in calgary and saskatchewan because of the oil industry. so that's understandable. if you look at the picture as a whole, however, probably looking at price

let's get to the cme group and check with rick santelli. >> hi, carl.ng, we're all caught up in the real time moment that we sometimes should take a step back. as we finish the third quarter and it's significant, i would look for upward pricing pressure on the long end for quarter end adjustments, but i see a 248 yield on 10s. look at a chart of this quarter. this chart starts on the last trading day of last quarter june 30th. where do we finish out? 253. basically where we settled friday is where we settled the second quarter. i find that interesting as you look at the chart. now we know that pimco has been a big talking point down here. let's face it, they use a lot of futures. there's a lot of people on this trading floor that are very familiar with their style or operation, how they trade the options especially. and even though maybe three or four basis points of speculative sell-off was definitely a cause and effect that we can probably attribute to friday's news regarding bill gross and pimco, many are hard pressed to try to handicap it much beyon

. >>> and rick santelli, "the santelli exchange." hey, rick. >> hi, carl.e're going to cover three topics today. i'll be moving swiftly. technical analysis, sometimes it really, i mean, truly is amazing. we've talk at great lengths, many exchanges talking about significant levels in tens. 245 maybe be the most significant all year and once again right up to the water but don't get wet. it's the main reason that the hardest part of technical analysis is sticking with your plan. until we get closes above 245, you still have a burden of proof on the sellers in terms of resourcing the market. on rate normalization. you know, sam zell, we love you in chicago! why? because he gave the best example why higher rates are good. say it. higher rates are good. hmm -- normalization is good. that's the mon trau. w mantra. why? he gave an example. buy a railroad, five to ten-year project and something changed dramatically in the fed pulled the rug out from under him or the exit was messy and financing card soared, it changes the plan. there's other investors that contact

let's get to rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> good morning, sarah.andy. thanks for taking the time this tuesday morning. judge, always a pleasure. >> first thing i want to say, do you believe the fundamentals of any given country should correlate with things like the price of their currency relative to other currencies, more importantly the level of their equity markets? >> no question that is what's going on in a lot of countries right now. the central banks just got their pedal to the medal. you are seeing a lot of lowells in equities you haven't seen in years. >> what was the last gdp number you've seen in japan? >> wasn't it 4%, 5%? >> more like down 6% plus. did you notice the level in the nikkei. virtually hit seven-year highs. is the market, a guy like i am, does that bother you, is that easy to explain or more central bank chemistry? >> what's happening is as the fed has been the first to talk about potentially tightening, even though they are trying to best not to, the dollar has soared, the yen has weakened. japanese stocks are cheap to glo

let's get over to rick santelli. >> good morning, carl.e to welcome our very special guest dr. martin feldstein. thank you for taking the time, sir. >> good to be with you. >> when mr. bernanke was transitioning out, you were the big write-in vote down here for the job. it didn't turn out that way. being the expert that you are, why don't you give me your general observations to yesterday's statement and press conference. >> well, i think they are being very cautious and yet they are communicating to the market that 2015 is going to see a significant increase in short rates. i suspect longer rates as well. so while they haven't put a date on when they are going to start, it seems to me to be a little bess important than the fact they are telling us by the end of the year the fed funds rate will probably be in the 1.25% to 1.50%. >> let's get above the timing issue for a moment. let's assume at some point in my lifetime they are going to tighten and normalize. having said that, let's talk about macroprudential. based on the dodd frank 2010

carl, back to you. >> rick, thank you so much, rick santelli.obacco products off the shelves ahead of schedule and rebranding itself as cvs health. we have a live interview with larry merlo. record highs for facebook this morning, gopro, test la, and the s&p at 2007. we'll be right back. cute little guy, huh? this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster? today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. i'm

for the "santelli exchange." >> good morning, simon.s is will the federal reserve end 0 rate policy and one school of thought is that they may not or they may be slower at it than many think because there is no feedback loop right now that they necessarily should stop what they are doing. meaning inflation expectations. big discussion. welcome my special guest mike memb mebbs. you are an m follower. throughout the m ones two and threes because things that act at money as easily identified and tracked anymore. but you have come up with ways and what trends do you see in the ms that we need to be aware of. >> i think the big thing is that they are flat. they haven't been growing for almost four years and last six months the fed just released had data on it. hundred billion. they should have grown 400 billion. >> you call all the ms, money stock. >> right. >> where is the deficiency. how much lower is it you envision it ought to be? >> historically in the past fifty years the money stock or the m one two and three have grown at 7 and a hal

let's get to rick santelli, the cme group and the santelli exchange. rick? >> hi, carl.eak pending home sales set of data points today, monthly, year-over-year, followed by strong data over the last several weeks. i'd like to ask our monday guest, mark hanson, taking for taking time, first guest of the week. did you learn anything new from pending home sales? can you handicap the recent trend in the housing industry for me, in your opinion, sir? >> you know, rick, it's more of the malaise. the return to normal that sophomorically being celebrated out there as a positive when in fact return to normal, i believe, going to be what leads housing down 10 to 20% in prices and demand over the next one to two years. remember, back in 2011, not coincidentally around the time twist was first announced housing bottomed on everything but end user fund mentals, the unorthodox demand by institutionals, hedge funds and private investors buying foreclosures to flip and remod and turn into rentals, the incremental pulled forward demands that fell down to 3.25. end users pulled that deman

let's get to the cme group and rick santelli. >> good morning carl.e all saw the statement yesterday and the one line that it is likely -- it is likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends. there was a big debate on that. no debate when you were watching the markets. of course they jumped all over that and many could argue janet yellen walked it back and made it more data dent dependent in ore subsequent press conference but it's really hard. that was a time we had greenspan ea ise, the language of the greenspan. i just don't know that i can follow some of this new transparen transparency. i'm not sure how transparent it is. but one thing reigned supreme. actually two things. central banks are here to stay. and i was a little bit surprised. there was an epiphany here on the cme group when traders found out that the cme was offering liquidity rebates for central banks to use their markets. i don't understand why that would make traders get outra

back you do. >> over to the immediate group and check in with rick santelli. >> good morning carl. some sources that the sunrises and the sunsets on everything that is china. and i have to say that their direction of late has been very correct. they beat many large banks in at least the notion that growth is slowing and whether it is 7.7, 7.5 or 7.1 the idea that wow that is so much better than europes and u.s. growth, it is not anything to worry about. in a closed system everybody adds the growth and you get a total number. if one area is higher than another, that is fine but the rate of change and how it effects the entire closed system that matters the most. a wall street journal has a very interesting story that central bank in china may be looking to replace personnel. is that going to put a stop to all that ails china? i don't know. but i would think that with commodities and one of my source's words being a sliver of the huge chinese carry trade t person who arranges the credit deck chairs is not going to change the ultimate direction. and the direction is clear, central ban

that said we have rick santelli in chicago. what are the traileders watching, rick?> they are watching everything. but what they are watching the most is still europe. cause/effect is a dicey topic. do we know if it's russia, china, syria, durable goods t federal reserve. nobody knows for sure. but keep this in mind, when you are home alone in a noise in a dark house takes on different significance when your house is full. the market is a bit nervous now and we're going to talk about what that may mean for big moves. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. there's a gap out there. that's keeping you from the healthcare you deserve. at humana, we believe the gap will close when healthcare gets simpler. when frustration and paperwork decrease. when gra

rick santelli, i'm going to start with you, then. how much of that do you think is the rising dollar? i mean, is there a fundamental thing going on or what do you think's going on here? >> well, you know, rising dollar is obviously going to have a valuation effect. a dollar-denominated commodities, but i think when it comes to the energy complex, i think there's many traders that, even though geopolitics never really had a big correlation with regard to some of those energy prices over the last several months, whether mideast or ukraine geopolitical stories, i still think we amassed a lot of speculators, and let's, of course, mention that at least driving season may be over, although the price of my gas is going up. i don't believe that's what it is. but i do think we still have something to look forward to, the cold war. i think what's going on with the ukraine area will, of course, hit some type of peek, my opinion, when the weather gets cold, because you know, if you have a trump card in a game of cards, you tend to use it when yo

jack bouroudjian, our rick santelli as well.to go until alibaba's highly anticipated ipo and all the buzz making some remember the mess on facebook's first day of trading more than two years ago. find out what alibaba is doing to make sure history doesn't repeat itself next? >>> and anheuser-busch, the latest nfl sponsor telling the league clean up its act. they may talk the talk. will any of these sponsors walk to walk and drop their deals? the former head of anheuser-busch's sports marketing weighs in. and your chance to weigh in is coming up. guys? it's the woven one the woven one. oh, oh that gives her invincibility. guys? no, no, no... the scarlet king is lord victor's son!! no don't. i told you! you guys are gonna be so surprised when you watch the finale!!! you're so lucky your car has wi-fi. yeah...i am. equinox from chevrolet... the first and only car company to bring built-in 4g lte wi-fi to cars, trucks and crossovers. who's going to make it happen? discover a new energy source. turn ocean waves into power. design car

rick santelli tracking the action. rick?> tyler, one would suspect traders are closely monitoring the equity markets today. look at a chart of 10s. wasn't dramatically affected by the poor 7-year auction. we should notice is not able to go through 250. if you open the chart, should we stay at this level? slightly above 250. lowest yield close since the 9th of september and ma traders say if it's spongey, you get confirmation of that by the treasury market later in the day slipping under the all-important 2.5% level. let's look at the dax. a big story today. started to slip into negative territory about 15 minutes before our equity markets opened. didn't have a good finish, obviously. and last but not least, this is the hygt yield. tyler, sue, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. appreciate it. >>> the dow down 228 points. having its worst day since july 31st. united health care, caterpillar, intel among the biggest losers today and talking about the key levels to keep an eye on now in the dow and the s&p 500. plus, the

first rick santelli in chicago, what is an your radar? >> oh man this bending thing's got me going. your bmw owners take a knee. see if you can make a bend in the door. does that mean you don't want to buy it? come on, grow up people. talking about the big number today, 43. the other thing, hey why didn't treasury yield go down more yesterday when you are down almost 300 points. pond they are and we'll come back and ponder it together after the break. of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long term injury,

. >>> let's get more reaction to the pimco interview from rick santelli.ches, rick. >> what is fascinating about this story is that as coincidence would have it when mohammed al arian left i happened to have had a meeting with a huge group of mutual fund managers. to listen to them talk as this news was breaking in many ways was kind of the pin that popped the balloon early. i think many of the issues they wanted challenged and confronted the ball started rolling then. i think in many ways that makes this less of an impact either on pimco potentially or many of the mutual funds. as for what dan and doug said, i don't know that they could have said anything more or less. i will tell you this. it reminds me a lot of not the death side but when apple changed and steven jobs was no longer the magic behind the company. you take a leap of faith that the company will have learned from all of the good things that steven jobs had in the pipeline and forge its own way beyond that. i think in many ways that is a similarity. anybody who has invested in mutual funds re

let's get to rick santelli in chicago. a lot's been made, rick, about a diverging rate expectation and the euro zone benchmark going to a 15-year high now. >> yeah. i'll tell you, there's a lot of questions and, of course, should janet yellen follow through on trading to end zero interest rate policy in 2015 how that plays out is anybody's guess. one thing we know is look at this intraday of 10s, many traders commented to me today they're surprised we haven't traded under 250 yet but i think i have a reason why. the stock market's been kevlar coated. it always comes back. i would say look in the last hour of trade, if interest rates slip under 250, the reason will be is that nobody's suspects that there's going to be a late-hour bounce in stocks. three-week low yields, should we close here, and also keep in mind that even though the auctions were messy, it didn't seem as though it was the type of messy that one would look for should a major financial calamity be ensuing. >> rick, thank you very much. speaking of kevlar coa

>> right after the stimulus bill passed in 2009, rick santelli had a rant on the floor of the chicago stock exchange. he said our founding fathers would be turning over in their graves and we needed to have a tea party like they did. we were talking about his rant and we decided to have a conference call after his rant, which was on february 20 of 2009 for about 23 people. the following friday, we had 48 tea parties around the country with artie 5000 people in attendance. >> where were you living? >> i was living in atlanta. there were two other people from atlanta on that conference call. we knew there would be at least one tea party in atlanta. >> what was your status? >> one of the things that rick santelli said, he asked the people who were standing behind him, if they wanted to pay for a home that their neighbors could no longer afford. that really is what motivated me to be involved. that part. my husband and i had just moved into a rental home in february of 2009. we had come out of personal bankruptcy and lost everything. we decided after the bankruptcy, we were offered fannie

but first, rick santelli in chicago. what have you got your eye on today?> today we're going to talk about how all of the developed economies, the big economies, fit into one global picture. i asked martin feldstein last week if slowness in europe or china would cause our central bank's activity in terms of tightening to change he said no. i'm not sure i agree. and the big number for today, 7980. what does it mean? you'll have to show up after the break. location. location. (shouting) location. here's the location that matters the most. here. or here. or here. it's wherever this is. to get customers to come here and stay here, you're going to need an app that connects to all your systems. so they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. before the competition does. it's tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. whenwork with equity experts who work with regional experts who work with portfolio management experts that's when expertise happens. mfs. because there is no

rick santelli is at the cme in chicago. bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange.eeing stocks worsen a bit. >> all throughout the morning i've been saying looks like the market wants to go up. the russell went positive at one point. a lot of speculation that the u.s. might benefit from some of the global turmoil, like going on in brazil. we've been weakening in the last half hour or so. i would note the volatility index, the vix, opened at 17 but been drifting lower in the last couple hours or so. you can see it's been moving back up in the last 15 minutes or so. s&p, same situation. looked like it wanted to go up and just sort of turned around in the last half hour. brazil, down more than 5% at the openp. also looked like it was doing better. now weakened just a tad here, same with hong kong. you could trade the honging cong market here, ewh the etf for that. that has been down throughout the day and coming off its lows right now. finally want to know high yield is much more stable today, down a little bit, but the volumes are not nearly as high as they've been in

back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. out action in commodities. >> good morning, carl. despite that stronger dollar, we are seeing strength in the energy complex today. west texas intermediate is up $1. note that the spread between those two is coming in. that means brent is falling out of favor a little bit. the bounce we are seeing in wti not on geopolitics, but buying the dip mentality. this market is well supplied. i do want to take a quick check on gold. it's hovering around that $1210 level. traders are saying the next stop could be $1125. metals, a place where that stronger dollar is having an impact because they are down across the board. back to you. >> thank you, jacqui. when we come back, from bending iphones to pulling an update, several complaints from several users. how concerned should investors be about the problems at apple? it is the worst performer on the nasdaq 100. [ male announcer ] some come here to build something smarter. ♪ some come here to build something stronger. others come to build somethin

rick santelli, what you watching today?e watching yields but we always try to keep it simple. some of the easy technologies have kept you from being on the wrong side of the marketplace. think 245 with tens. that's changed. now we're going to shift a different part of the curve to give you the simple answer to where rates are going to go. what part of the curve? you have to come back to see after the break. location. location. (shouting) location. here's the location that matters the most. here. or here. or here. it's wherever this is. to get customers to come here and stay here, you're going to need an app that connects to all your systems. so they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. before the competition does. it's tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with br

let's send it over to rick santelli in chicago. ricky, what do you take of those comments this morning saying it is the beginning of the end of the bond market rally by mark bove, we are done? >> reporter: i'll tell you what. for the last couple of years i would say i don't agree with those statements. today i'm not going to say that. i do think that the signals for seeing higher interest rates are in place. we're just several basis points away from a close that would turn me personally bearish. we need to settle above 248, 245 and three basis points of slippage. but i still think as big as that story is, the bigger story is what did mr. drage accomplish? if you really want to know look at the european forces flying high. a positive for equities. >> rick santelli, thank you very much. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> okay. so your top market story maybe not stocks today. it's actually the greenback, the u.s. dollar jumping as europe's version of janet yellen decided to do their own form of stimulus. let us bring in sarah eisen and

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thanks so much, rick santelli. >>> news flow today.etting news out of carl icahn with a 6.63% stake in a 13d filing. you see this, david? >> that's not new. he exercised the call options. we knew about it previously. >> a great story. the split-up bringing value. they should focus on it. a lot of value there because they're really amazing web company. it's fantastic. >> the split-up, remember when he filed that "d." >> he wanted that and got it. >> got in saying to split it and they had done it. he's staying in which may be interesting in and of itself. >> meantime alibaba could be the biggest ipo in history. planning to increase the size because of overwhelming demand for the deal according to reuters and launched the roadshow last week and enough demand as you probably know to cover the deal in two days. jim, close it early and don't let it overheat? >> i don't like stories saying we're already oversold. you don't want the old days. waiting until ten times oversold. what you want is three times oversold is big fidelities of the world

rick santelli in chicago. i think mr.her reminded everyone there has been problems in the fast when the fed ended its qe program. >> having that in traders' minds paints a picture of question marks, maybe that's what it was about, question mark. no question on things in treasuries, five and seven year auctions didn't go well, the two year did and when you consider that we were down three basis points in five, five basis points in tense and seven basis points in 30s, you get an idea that the curve flattened today and flattening of late gets associated with the risk-off-type trade. we talk about yield and the tens, roughly three-week low closing yields an of course jerk have a weak durable goods number, the weakest month over month change ever, but to be fair, it was following the strongest, 22 1/2% change that we had last month, so really wasn't the data and speaking of data, tomorrow, we will probably have close to a 4.6%, second quarter gdp, final look around the block, of course, and our final look at september, michiga

rick santelli at the cme, good morning, rick. >> good morning. know something's up with the curve steepened a bit. look at fives to 30s, everything should include fives. look at twos, and many do, but the fives the fulcrum, you know, influenced by the fed, but left to its own market devices. this steepened about three or four basis points. it's a three-day weekend, but that's large. it's still virtuely flattest in six years going back to january of 2009. look at what's going on quarter to date starting in july. so you can really see the yield curve in action if you look at a quarter beginning five year, you see. so first the ten-year. it's a much less developed. i will tell you as long as the curve is starting to steepen, dollar continues to be anchored, whether it's because other central banks do the same things we did years ago, maybe markets's handicapping the results, could be turns here. real key with the central banks meeting thursday including the ecb, watch the value trade, back to bunds. lowest yield settlement ever, basically while we w

rick santelli is tracking the action. >> indeed if you look at a 24 hour chart, you can see that as we roll into our time zone, everything leveled off just a bit. let's look at a quarter to date of the five year, and note the right side of the chart's level. now let's look at same year to date for 30 year bonds. and now pair them up. a new flat all the way back to 2009, we continue to monitor that. and of course the dollar index after having a great run, somewhat quiet today. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. speaking of bonds, the bond king bill gross shocking investors by leaving pimco. he's going to janice to take over a very small six month or so old unconstrained bond fund. what exactly is an unconstrained fund and should you consider one? plus jessica alba making a big name for herself in business. jul julia boorstin live in new york. >> we'll have jessica alba next. >>> welcome back to "power lunch". check out shares of fedex, upgraded to outperform and increasing his price target to $210. it expect as strong peak shipping season for fedex. >> and we'll go to phi

rick santelli is at the cme group in chicago. rick? >> hi, david.ntral bank meetings, but the one that stands out is mario draghi, and look at what the markets did, we can learn a lot. we can always learn a lot when for the few moments the markets are pretty much like emperors with no clothes. you get to see some moves and where they stopped and see it under emotion. if you look at an intraday bund, this is fascinating, remember the low yield closed for the bund, happened first of sent, see the chart? there's flow 88 basis points. it did not challenge on an intraday basis and reversed. look at the bund, open it up to, i don't know, couple weeks to the 20th of august, you see what i mean? did not make it extreme. that is significant. euro, now, the euro made it extreme, but remember, everything is stacked up against the euro, and the talk is bull. fixed income market is different, scratching its head, but what's noteworthy on the euro against the dollar chart is that virtually it held 130. argue about a couple ticks, and that was significant. now, le

. >> let's get to rick santelli in chicago. >> you know, we don't really have a tiger tooth type treasury market. the weak employment report, ecb meeting, it seems to have gotten cold in terms offing a gra vagt the sell side of the marketplace. yes all the news on friday gave us upticks and selloffs in treasury, but knee jerk reaction on people company might have been the best market mover. we're going in to quarter he said oig about four basis points lower and it doesn't feel as though anything other than a weak stock market will take it long end going up and price down in yield. of course the data at the end of the week especially nonfarm headlines coming off a 142 will be significant. >> all right. thank you very much. just over an hour ago, the white house issued a statement urging the chinese government to show restraint. this is pro democracy protests in hong kong. so this is how we've gotten to where we are. back in 1997, hong kong transferred to chinese control after 150 years under britain. hang seng was at about 14300. 1998, first happened overelections, hang seng down from the

draghi, rick santelli. so what are we expecting and how is the bond market performing? >> i like that piece, and they say tesla has no competition. it's all about central banks tomorrow. cut through all the geopolitical? show me the money. qe is the money and they're all trying to grab a piece of it. it gets right up to that 245, 246 and fails. why is that important? open up the chart to mid-may. two major yields at bottom. at 245 it's the key area. dollar/yen, another area where everyone is looking for qe, hence the weakness in their currency. it's hovering at the lowest level in the dollar since new year's eve, but today has amounts equal to that. rick, back to you. >>> this is one form of hot share selling at more than 40% right now at this hour. should you get in? the company ceo will join us sfirs first on cnbc. >>> new record highs today. which transportation stocks are benefiting the most from those lower oil prices? that ask mond more when we retu. when fixed income experts work with equity experts who work with regional experts who work with portfolio managemen

let's go to the bond market with rick santelli.re was a really bit of market upside today and then we got mr. gross's announcement. tell us what the reaction is down there. what do people think? >> most people think the real issue with the market place outside of knee jerk reaction of trying to speculate on outflows at pimco is the notion of how much is lost between the cracks. in other words, from a market perspective if outflows from pimco go to janus it nets out. if it doesn't end up at janus that is the issue and the market will have to take time to divine through that. today stocks are up. we briefly traded under 2.50. the next chart on 27th of august. low yeld is 2.33 for the move. middle of the chart it is 2.62. what is the average around the yield of 2.49. you see how yield at the lowest levels since september of 2013. lqd was going the other way. some of the fallout of getting in front of potential outflows did cause lqd to experience selling that it might not have seen on a normal friday. back to you. >> thank you very mu

. >> let's go to rich santelli in chicago for an update on the interest rate markets. >> you know as well as anyone that this week is beginning of some very important fed meetings. we could do surveys and talk to traders and of course everybody has an opinion. the only opinion that matters is that committee. down here they say they are not sure how they will proceed. many are looking at the five year sector. it seems to be the most sold sector. it is flirting with the highest yields that we have seen since september of last year. it is very close to back to may of 2011. what you want to watch is 1.85 on the yield close basis and drifted lower on weak data. >> thank you very much. >> since we have you might as well make full use of you. >> no rest for the really good or the wicked or the weary. >> we are going to have a discussion on the economy coming up. i want to give people an update on where we are. the numbers are extraordinary. this is where we put together the tracking surveys of ten economists out there. tracking 3.2% unchanged from the industrial production. new york state m

rick santelli tracking action in chicago. >> normally i would be showing you charts of ten year notes it seems as though the preoccupation of our fed meeting is more on the intermediate middle part of the curve. as you look at the two-day chart of the five year first of all round 183 represented high yield before it backed off. but the next chart will show you why. most of the bearishness of late is in the five-year sector. should we trade above 185 on closing yield basis? on the far left that was the extreme from last year. should we close above that? many traders think you see very aggressive selling and come back to may of 2011. the euro versus the dollar. our central banks on a different mode than european central bank? wednesday could be big if this trade is going under 1.29. >> a big week for many reasons. for many the reason will be the focus on alibaba. activist hedgefund manager bill acman planning his own ipo. >>> would you invest with ackman? go to cnbc.com/vote. >>> forget somalia, this is the most pirated water in the world. this is an incredible story you will hear and s

. >>> serious issue facing so many teenagers, let's bring in dr john santelli into the conversation, the chair of columbia university population family department, and a paediatrician and adolescent specialist. let's talk about the issue that so many teenagers face, the possibility of having to terminate a pregnancy. what is it like for them to go through with this, and is one type of teenager more likely to do that than another? >> it's a tough decision. for a woman to go through the decision, it's more difficult for teenagers that have never faced this or realised the consequences. they are trying to figure out their lives, having to understand it. >> does the financial background impact the choice. >> sure. poor kids are more likely to start sex early, less likely to use contraception and less likely to get an abortion. because they see having a baby as a better choice than what is going on in their current life. whereas a young lady from a weth - wealthy family, with thoughts of a career - that is more prevalent. >> this is interesting, teen pregnancy rates are dropping, but you

. >> before i turn you to tech let's go to rick santelli in chicago because the two-year note just went off the board. how did it do? >> a for apple. remember two-year note yields are basically hovering at three-year high yields to begin with. the yield at 29 billion two years was 0.589. the bid to cover 356 well above 342 since faeb of this year. we are really solid was close to 41% on indirect. you have to go back to november of 2011 to find a better number there. . 42% went to dealers which means 57% went to the end users. that really we are monitoring we are closest. >>> apple has been funt and center in the news. you have liked apple but you like it a little bit less now. >> remember a year ago we were talking about a product cycle company. it is going through a period with no new product. everybody was predicting the demise of apple. it is up 100% from last summer and we have forgotten it is a product cycle stock. you have to be a little more cautious. i believe you buy good quality stocks. apple is back into favor. >> what about google? >> google hasn't performed as well as apple

and our own rick santelli. oil moved sharply higher here in the last few minutes on word of bombing over benghazi on a non-oil port in that region of the world. we're keeping eye on that right now, as well. oil moved sharply higher here up 1.5%. jack, when's going on? what's with the bounce today do you think? >> this is all end of the quarter type buying, bill. we have had one good run this quarter and with the holiday tomorrow with the jewish holiday tomorrow, remember, you have a couple of days to buy if you want stocks to settle in the quarter, beginning of next week. a lot of that is going on but, you know, that's not to say we haven't picked up on a pattern. remember, we have been watching the markets make new all-time highs on the expiration fridays followed by a 3% to 5% dip. don't read too much into the rally. i think the next week or two is more important. >> let's break. breaking news out of western new york with tony stewart. dom chu has the story right now. when's the grand jury saying, dom? >> all

let's check in with rick santelli. >> good morning, carl.lcome our very special guest on this fed decision day, robert mcteer, former fed official. thanks for taking the time this morning, bob. >> my pleasure. >> i guess we have to start at protocol. that is what everybody seems to be talking about. do you think the language of considerable period will be taking away from the statement, or do you think it will be left in? >> i think it will be probably be left in, but i think there might be some added language designed to weaken it a little bit. it's becoming an al bo trosz because time is passing and you can't keep on saying a considerable period. it's got to be converted to something that's data dependent rather than time dependent at some point. >> now, i know it's just me and you, even though we have a lot of people tuning in, but quite honestly, i'm a little embarrassed to even think that here we are discussing words in a statement this many years after the crisis. do you feel that instead of talking about some of the issues i would thi

rick santelli, what are you watching? >> two letters, qe. you don't need to pay attention to anything else. alls you have to do is hope mario draghi and the bank of japan say qe as many times as possible. the algorithms do their job properly like the cac and dex despite the gloom and doom with regard to fundamentals. join the club, you two. the water is warm. we might be exiting qe, but all stimulus is fungible and the globe is going to continue to float its way into higher equity prices. >> rick, are those two meetings more important than the jobs report this week? >> i think so, without a doubt. >> i absolutely agree with rick. they are more important than the jobs report here, but i would like to make a point about the european qe. it is not without its own troubles. when you think about the political support mario draghi -- >> it may not happen, i'm with you, but does it need to? investors are just like, just talk about it and make the price go up. we don't care about anything else. >> maybe. >> when are people going to quit talking abou

let's get over to the bond pits, check in with rick santelli. >> good morning, carl.s really give you an idea of momentum. a lot of day traders down here. first thing they do is compare today's activity to yesterday's. remember, we live in an immediate gratification world in so many ways. trading, really top on that list. so look at a two-day of fives. look at the relationship to yesterday and today. as you move down the curve, look at tens. the right side goes a little lower. look at 30s. the right side goes a little lower. that makes sense. if investors are willing to have negative rates on bills, why not look down the curve and actually get something. as we wait for the growth and the inflation that central banks are trying to work just crazy behind closed doors in all their test tubes, we still see the business confidence in germany slowing. many of the big banks have downgraded the growth in china. but we all knew that. you listened to the finance minister last week. let's stick with the five-year. it's the area of the curve i find gets the most interest, whether

. >> let's go to rick santelli. we are seeing a little move about four basis points. your reaction, sir. >> i think the ten year yield is interesting because it snubbed to the high yield close shooting back over 180. the five year where most are paying most attention. you really are going to affect some selling by bringing in more selling. the dollar index wins more. the euro close to 1.29 even on that. and here is what it boils down to in the eyes of traders and i'm in a foreign exchange pit. it is not whether you believe the fed is going to tighten it is the relative value trade. the fact of the matter is we are further down the possibility of that happening than the europeans or the japanese. i think that is why you are seeing so much of today's fed action play out on the foreign exchange markets. >> very quickly we have the dollar yen rate in front of us at 1.0793. >> i think the japanese will be pretty happy with the very weak yen. >> many bullish on the nikkei. russ yesterday didn't get to it but said we like the japanese nikkei market. >> he prefers it to the u

rick santelli tracking action for us. >> if you look at the chart we are definitely moderating a bitn about three basis points from yesterday. best chart may be from early july. last meeting statement was july 30 because we spiked about eight or nine basis points up to 255. if you look at foreign exchange dollar/yen is where all the action is at. you see the dollar close to 1.08. still unable to have significant closes under 1.29. >> thank you very much. the airline industry is in the midst of one of its most profitable years ever. some are asking why the airlines aren't making more money. historic and life changing event coming down to the wire. >> tomorrow the scots vote on whether or not there will be independence for scotland breaking away from the united kingdom. one of the biggest industries here is the stock industry. take a look at how single malt premium scotch they sell to americans gone up sharply since 2002. we will tell you after the break. wait, wait, wait, it's wait, wait, wait...whoa, does she have special powers when she has the shroud? no. guys? it's the woven one t

to the bond market right now rick santelli. hi. >> we are a couple of basis points lower on the ten year note yield. it is obvious why. it wasn't just existing home sales but coming in with the china headlines. if you look at the charts starting on june 1 of this year you can see we are bouncing around good resistance above us. we are now in the throws of moving and look at the charts of the dollar index from 14-month highs to 50-month highs as we are back towards the summer of 2010. let's look at the pieces under the same timeline. look at the euro versus the dollar still hovering at 14-month lows. the dollar-yen from june of 2010. you don't see how far back you have to go to top it. it would be an extra two years which shows the euro centricness of the dollar index. >>> thank you very much. this is a really strange and disturbing story as many as 15 secret cell phone interceptor towers have been discovered in our nation's capitol. who is watching what you are saying on your cell phone? who is hacking phones in d.c.? this is a

goes wrong and know the fed has a terrible record when it comes to economic forecasting. >> rick santelli? >> yes. i'm sorry -- >> that was for you, buddy. >> i wasn't sure. you know, high fast balls. listen, i can't tell you -- i can't tell you what's gonna happen when the fed does its exit strategy. i can't tell you what's gonna happen or the day it's gonna happen with respect to the end of rates but i think personally that what's going on in the stock market is exactly what's happened every other time,et specials -- especially the last markets, the rates go up, stocks go up, the new mantra out here does it really matter when they are going to raise rates? i will tell you what, hugely matters when. harkin back to may of 2013. matters when you're long and short, don't have a position in the fixed income or equity markets, in a way, all americans have a position in this market and i believe that markets are in such a realtime algorithmic kind of fast trade that it is going to be right up to the end, when the rate rise looks imminent is when you will really see who is swimming with and wit