let's get to rick santelli. get the santelli exchange. >> good morning and thank you.orning when i brought out the data at 10:00 eastern, it was jolting. this series of number, only began in the year 2000. we've never surpassed 6 million. today, we did by about 44,000 if i recall. unbelief unbelievabl unbelievable, but what's the jolt? when this is marketed as one of janet yellen's favorite numbers. far less traders use it in their strategy than other economic releases like the first friday of the month labor statistics employment report, but it is gaining traction. it's a bit more complicated. but just on the surface. all these job openings, but yet, as jolting as this was this morning, i don't see the growth materializing. now, granted, we all know that right now, maybe and hours from now, we're going to get more information on a lot of the things that happened during the and post crisis that are inhibiting growth. maybe taxation and regular la s lacelations and all those things are being addressed, somewhat slowly. today, i had a guest on who basically says along wi

rick santelli has the santelli exchange >> thanks, mike. all pricing issues were created the same okay so whether you're looking at inflation or deflation, there is a lot of variables here. so in a world that is consumed by debt, if you have a building that you owe x amount of money on and we don't see any inflation, that's not nearly as good for whoever is holding that debt as if there is a lot of inflation and they could kind of roll their way out of it but when it comes to other things, maybe it isn't quite the same think back to 1970 look up what it cost for a calculator that you could buy and the check out at a drugstore for $1.99. look how much that was in 1970 the reason i bring it up, the marriage between amazon and whole foods, it's gotten a lot of talk this week and justifiably so i mean amazon has redefind so many things and their distribution makes so many more things possible. but here's what my thought is. when you think about the fatness of everybody's wallets, especially the middle class, lower middle class, even the upper m

priority: you ♪ >>> let's get to the cme group and rick santelli and the santelli exchange.rning, rick. >> hi, carl. my first friday of the month guest, ed lazear. if it's employment friday, we always look forward to hearing your thoughts. what did you think of today's job report? 138,000 jobs, downward revision from 211 to 174. average hourly earnings up two-tenths. workweek 34.4 unchanged. >> right. obviously, it wasn't a great report. i think it wasn't as bad as people made it out to be. it was bad because the expectations were high. but the number, you know, when you look at it -- i always like to smooth these things out. the number i look at is the last three months, 121,000 per month. if you look at that number and say, you know, where is that, that's close to what we need to keep up with the growing population. the big problem, rick -- and it's something you and i have talked about in the past -- is we're still down a couple million jobs from where we should be. the economy still has a long way to go in terms of a complete recovery. >> ed, let me stop you one second,

rick santelli in chicago. back, views on streaming and the changing tv landscape from the legendary alan alda. dow is down 42. this is where i trade andrs. manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. when this bell rings... ...it starts a chain reaction... ...that's heard throughout the connected business world. at&t network security helps protect business, from the largest financial markets to the smallest transactions, by sensing cyber-attacks in near real time and automatically deploying countermeasures. keeping the world of business connected and protected. that's the power of and. >>> alan alda best known for his floelz "m.a.s.h." and "the west wing." also a writer. he wrote multiple episodes of "m.a.s.h." and won six themmies. "if

. >> bob pisani on the floor let get to rick santelli a lot of fed speak to chew on all week hey, rickmake the market so much more focused. it mott what the fed is tacking about doing or what the market thinks the feds are going to be doing. it continues to be not on a combination of those but what other central banks are doing with respect to quan tative easing and what's going on with europe and the economic data around the globe, intra day of tens look at when we contend, sort of at the top of the range, 2.13 to 2.21 were the closing yields of last year. even though we're holding, we're holding at a very low level, just a few base points away from the low levels of the year the bunds are about 6 basis points up on the year whereas as we closed at 244, currently trading at 216 we heard analysts talk about how good things are in europe. macron is putting together a very big group of politicians to give him some clout to potentially do some reforms in france that are hovering just root above 60 base points their yield have come down o lot. a lot of pressure on all neelds. the notion of

in chicago with the santelli exchange.n i tell you what, it's really been interesting watching treasuries of late because there's so much technical significance to them let's go to the board, shall we? you know, it was monday, a couple of days ago, when we really looked quite closely at the ten-year yield market in a real tight timeframe basically, from right before the election around the fourth of november to right around the election near the 14th what we found is it covered a heck of a lot of ground. the big move was 177 and 226 we divided in thirds and said the two areas to watch, 210 and 94 the top of that range was 226, all significant. now, let's go to a chart i rarely use, the intraday chart this is an intraday chart for several weeks now. and what i want to draw your attention to is on the 14th of june was 210 the high yield we made just hours ago at 6:08 a.m. eastern was 226. so we basically tested the top, we hit the level, the lower level, not only did we hit it on the 14th, but yesterday we got down to 211. t

rick santelli and the santelli exchange rick >> thanks, carl.elcome my special guest today, peter boockvar thanks for taking the time >> thanks for having me, rick. >> listen, you know, i think it's great and i'm really optimistic that our fed is trying to reverse some of the policy, especially this grand experiment but we need to reach a tipping point for it to really make a difference what i mean by that is, no matter what we're doing, if the ecb bank of glaengland, bank of japan, or the bank of china somehow don't stop purchasing, it really gets lost. we still see yields go down and curves flatten are they close getting to the point where their activity along with our fed will tip us so we actually see some normalcy or maybe a steeper curve or interest rates that send better signals? your thoughts? >> well, we're certainly creeping in that direction and as you mention ed, the othe central banks. even the bank of japan, instead of buying 80 trillion yen a year, they're on track to buy a little less than 60 trillion they're already going throug

scott wapner let's get to rick santelli in the meantime and get the "santelli exchange," rick. >> good, carl. contrary to human belief, that's a coin, there are two sides to this lately i think there's one side just about to every story in the world, but that isn't accurate and it's not accurate in finance either listen, i'm going to oversimplify, but one of the conventional wisdoms of the world nowadays is that a flat curve is bad for banks, a steep curve is better for banks. one thing i can tell you is that the short end at least is responding like a live frog versus a dead one with a battery skb a couple of wires like the long end short rates are getting raised okay 1 to 1.25 as of yesterday. and the questionable currents of these interest rates really does require flotation devices. it's called libor. okay many of these institutions have floating benchmarks on the money they've lent out rates go up, the benchmark goes up rates go down, the benchmark goes down. so there is another side to the story of banks and how they can fare in a flat yield curve environment whether you believe

rick santelli. >> good morning, sara, thank you.to have you in person. you're in exactly the right place in government to have a great discussion on taxes. you're the chairman of the house ways and means subcommittee on tax policy. big job. i guess the first thing everybody has to ask is the time line. you have others like ryan, treasury secretary mnuchin putting pretty big blockers as to when they think this gets done. tell me your thoughts. >> think of this in terms of fruit ripening as opposed to pulling the fries out of the fryers in nine seconds. when this is ripe, it will be ready. i'm not trying to be cagey, but i'm trying to describe kind of getting some of these difference concepts sort of publicly litigated and well understood. we have passed an important phase. nobody is defending the status quo. there's nobody that likes our current tax code. nobody likes the irs. there's a recognition that we have once in a generation opportunity and now is the time. so i think 2017 is the year for tax reform. >> okay. now, off camera y

fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. >>> let's get over to rick santelli and get the santelliou know, it's independence day fourth of july weekend you know what happens on fourth of july? lots of fireworks. you know what may happen at midnight tonight lots of fireworks from rating agencies my guest, john miller. he manages a portfolio municipal securities, one of the largest in the world john, what's going on with illinois and chicago >> on the state of illinois, it's been a long time, over two years, since they've been able to get a budget agreement. we're about to go into potentially the third fiscal year s & p in particular has warned they will take the state below investment grade if a budget agreement can't be found and the time is running short. >> i'm. >> narrator: impression, i read it ll, studied it all, it seem as thoughit's binary they made this clear for years and years. how tight is midnight? do things really happen right at midnight >> it's uncertain the process inside the rating agency there is committee process they telegraphed this in an unusually clear fashio

john browne former bp ceo. >>> let's check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. >> good? we talk about how central banks made it difficult to communicate to investors what's going on. on friday after job numbers there were many conversations about why the long end was at its lowest yield levels since november and many other sovereign bond markets across the globe had similar patterns. one of the reasons was inflation. one reason was central bank ownership. it's very difficult to tell. consider the conversation that was just on cnbc. think about when opec or the cartels controlled a lot of oil. they were able to control a lot of the pricing that went into it. as the wildcat era of u.s. frackers took hold that control became much more difficult for the market, to many much more true in its current pricing. think about the same in the treasury complex or in the bond global market entirely. there's been so much research as of late whether it's jpmorgan talking about how quantitative easing is crowding out large players in the market or goldman sachs talking about hedge funds

back to you guys. >> thank you very much, rick santelli.y quick on draghi, jim, what did you hear out of him today? >> i thought once again, i thought he would be talking about strength in the economy. but he talks about no inflation. you know, kind of an ideal world. to me i think he's playing the game all they ever cared about in europe since the 1920s, as long as there's no inflation, we can keep pedal to the metal. that's what i heard. i didn't hear end of accommodation. they're worried about inflation. you know what t italian two year is in a race to 2%. can you imagine? 2.21. with the government that may be shaky, okay? with the possibility that they may leave the euro with the slowest growth in europe. how do they -- the third biggest bond market. this is insane. it's insane. insane that you can have these rates. that's why you look at our rates. you say do i want to be an italian ten year 2.21 or us? >> is the two or ten year? >> ten year. i look at this and i say, come on, there's money in italy and that money in italy should hedge

we get to rick santelli with "the santelli exchange." good morning, rick >> good morning, sara.g the time the first day of the two-day fed meeting. >> good morning, rick. >> all right, on the rate side, a, do you believe the fed will extend the range tom snow. >> yes, sir. they will do that. finally it's time. >> all right now in some of your writing you've alluded they're way behind the curve where do you think overnight rates or range should be at this point in time? >> well, the fed funds rate really should be at 3, 3.5%. we have 2% inflation and a little bit for, you know, real interest rate and you had 3, 3.5, so the fed is way behind the curve. they should be raising the rates. they should have raised the rates beforehand i'm glad they're doing it now. >> all right, now you bring up a great point. it goes to the notion of normalcy i agree that is probably the range we should be at, and the fed is trying to return markets and the overnight rate to normal places the problem is that the rest of the trading market that isn't necessarily directly under the fed's thumb has orphe

rick santelli has that hey, rick. >> yes, more data.ustrial production if we look at that number it is 70 -- i'm sorry. industrial production is down -- everything is moving so fast, it's unchanged what i was really paying attention to the most was capacity utilization up changed we were expecting up 0.2 we did garner an extra 0.1 last month. utilization rates that's more my favorite and that one we expected 76.8. similar to the last look, but it was down at 76.6 but keep in mind, last month 76.7, okay is the best number going all the way back to august 5th of 2015. so utilization rates are still running on the high side and that i think is something to pay attention to carl, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you so much we'll continue to watch the data by the way, dj khaled is making his way to the nyse floor. we'll talk to him in a bit not just about the music business or his nike collaboration. but the 3 million facebook friends, the 6 million instagram followers. the king of snapchat -- probably undisputed king of snapchat. >>

rick santelli, what's on your mind today? >> looking at the data, we had some interesting data.cago yesterday and ism today. what i'm really paying attention to is the linkage between the dollar, euro versus the dollar and interest rates. we'll talk about that after the break. ♪ the man in the back is ready to crack ♪ to a different comny with carurance, and i was not happy with the stomer serce. we have switched back over and we feel like we're. the process rough usaa is so effortless, that y feel ke you're a parof the family. i lovehat can pass the membership to my children, and that they can be procted. we're the williams family, and we'raa members for life. ll utoday to talk out your insurance needs. >>> coming up on the half time report, several bank owners raising kens on the sector. >> and why some say the rally isn't over for the fast food giant. we've made it our call of the day. >> and is intel a buy or sell? we'll discuss top of the hour. speaking of code, let's go back to carl out west. see you in a bit. >> let's go to rick santelli. >> i was asked yesterday and i lo

with us for the hour today -- also with us from chicago, cnbc's rick santelli. let's begin with the market. stocks are fighting back and fighting for positive territory today. it is bond yields though, which are grabbing our attention this hour, falling to their lowest level since after donald trump was elected president. the question is is, how concerned should you be? doc, something's got to give, doesn't it? how long can stocks and bonds continue to go up together sh. >> i'd say several more basis points out of the bond, judge. we have got low volatility, low inflation. those are both helping stocks and bonds. the bonds of course are just running like crazy. there must be more shorts in this than in tesla, but down at 214, 212, where ever the ten year is, you could see it push to two. perhaps under two. >> k is to bes are going to continue to go up. >> if it's because of low volatility, then where he, and china saying they can see themselves buying more of the bonds again instead of stepping away from them like they allegedly has been doing over the past seve

soar or sink carl, we'll see you in a few >>> let's get to the cme group and check in with rick santelli>> fr >> you know, this meeting really is important as are every meeting of the federal reserve especially in the current predicament that central bankers are in and particularly let's concentrate first on the rate side i give the fed great credit. it is doing something that is very difficult to do, it is reversing something that has lasted too long in the form easy money, highly com date difference policy, long i don't understand ti don't understand the crisis was designed to address. but even with the fed doing the right thing, if this weighs less accommodation and the fed is pulling, ecb and bank of japan are pulling it back like a tug of war if this is where we are, we need to be over here. but even if we raise rates, what they are doing is, a, not raising rates, b, still buying financial assets even though he there has been some action on that front, but it pretty much is they go debatig negating, cat to get traction. imagine a hose to water your garden if you put a bunch of holes

distributed by invesco distributors inc. >>> let's get over to santelli and get the santelli exchangening, carl. happy fed week and to that end we'll be discussing lots of fed issues starting today with dr. shelton. judy shelton, thank you, doctor, for being my guest today. >> thank you so much for having me. >> you know, this morning in the journal, just rhetorical questions. can our fed not see that other central bankers' policy is negating what they're doing? you wrote years ago, what if janet yellen's wrong i have been speaking since 2010. it seems to me like double or nothing central banking is a dangerous path to be down. you hear all the questions reporters ask. an entity in a small group of other entities controlling the capital, the value of what we labor for. not a peep, crickets your thoughts, dr. shelton. >> well, mr. santelli, you certainly have been a voice crying in the wilderness about this and i agree with you i'm not someone who thinks that the fed is omniscient. quite the contrary we have put the free market economy that believes free market outcomes are much better

first up though, rick santelli, what are you watching? >> whoa.ot allowed to see this yet the we're going to be drawing some charts of ten year note yields. we do this a lochlt you heard all of the commentators talking about 212. 'ltey iimrtt? wel ll you after the break >>> jury selection begins in the fraud trial involving martin shkreli. >> carl, jury selection is going on now it may be kind of difficult to find a jury here starting off the questioning of the jurors the judge told them it's okay if you have an opinion about this because there has been media attention aren't case. as long as that opinion doesn't mean you can't be fair when you're deciding the fact of the case they dismissed about one in five jurors that they questioned on that particular topic. so about nine people were dismissed. now they're going through this expected to be a six week long trial. they're going through just sort of the commitmentes for the summer and dismissing a lot of jurors in there. so originally the judge said she expected the trial to actually start tomorr

and get the santelli exchange.>> i'm not talking about football players and models, i'm talking about models like the fed uses the economy before the crisis and the economy after the crisis, whether you look at the united states and looking at the eu, japan, china, they're different. it's very difficult to calibrate monetary policy, especially addressing a crisis when anything is on the table most things will be tried. but the issue isn't trying something. the issue is trying to try something else now if we look at post crisis, several things jump out at us. inflation atleast defined and looked for by the federal reserve isn't enough for them to really move into what they consider the 2% target i've had e-mails that bring up accounting this isn't something we talk about very much. but it goes right to the point of pricing pressure and inflation. consider a car and 2017 and consider a car in 2000 lots more features, lane change features, stopping if the car is too close in front of you much those accessories, those

. >>> let's hop over to the cme group and check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange >. i want to welcome my guest, peter chur, thanks for taking the time >> thanks for having me, rick. >> you know, i would love to read your material, and there's a big debate now going on. i never thought i would live long enough to hear this particular debate. policy error by the u.s. fed are they moving the too fast are they talking about tightening too much, given the data, what are your thoughts >> i'm surprised that they were as hawkish as they came out last week they had the chance to pull back, act a little bit more dovish they came out very hawkish, that they're going to hike more this year, hike next year, and they also want to start shrinking the balance sheet. and this is all while the data is actually a little bit weaker. >> all right now, peter, the data over the last 15 to 18 quarters has been up and down, up and down, but i do see maybe a drift my question to you is, if the yield curve, 2s to 10s, was 40 or 50 basis points steeper, do you think that would put an end to so

. >>> a news alert now in the bond market rick santelli, as he always does, tracks the action at theme. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler 26 billion in two years just hit the street, the first of 88 billion in total supply. i gave the auction an "a." it was a great auction the fed is expected to continue to raise but look at the metrics here 1.348, that was much lower than the offer side of the one issued market so it did great on a pricing basis. 3.0, november of 2015. blows away the ten auction of 45 and 18.3 on direct and solid "a" and tomorrow, of course, will be five-year, 34 billion. michelle, back to you. >> thanks, rick. >>> another news alert julia boorstin is in l.a. >> that's right founded by facebook, microsoft, twitter and youtube, these companies have come together to help continue to make their services hostile to terrorists and extremists they are teaming up because they have come under criticism particularly facebook and youtube most recently for being in environments where terrorists can communicate with each other, youtube, shared videos that are ads for terrorism. these four

this let's head over to the cme group now, rick santelli with the santelli exchange this morning.ichard farr in one of your most recent writings and i'm paraphrasing here, worry about down side risk you tell investors stocks are you have thely at all time highs, especially if your blurry eyes. rates are a lot lower than they were at the end of the year. the curve flattened and we have a fed tightening you see a soft patch and more risk explain. >> well, there's no doubt that some of the recent data has weakened you see that in retail sales and credit card use. you see it in the pmi dat yachlt it's been across the board, housing, for instance. the data has been a little softer meanwhile, if you look at the inflation data, it looks as though inflation may have peaked a couple of months ago so to me, it seems a little ill advised that this time for a fed to be hiking rates, i think you need to see a little bit more proof and less forecasting at this point for the fed i think that does create down side risk. >> all right okay now, i'm going to push back. let's take that soft patch you

basically yesterday's bounce more or less undone in today's morning action let's get over to rick santelli in chicago for "the santelli exchange". >> thank you what an interesting week you heard all the commentary regarding interest rates as i'm speaking hopefully you're seeing a chart of our ten year notes. because over the last couple of days if not the last couple of months we've talked about how right before the friday before to be precise, the fourth of november, until a little bit after the election the 14th of november how much so many markets moved including interest rates. basically from the 170s into the 228 to 235 camp. why is that important? because the first impulse if you look at the move and we described this many ways, the first move impulse is to 226 as can you see, 227 there for a pivot on that chart, you see 229. a settlement bf 227 is significant. also while i'm speaking, you want you to look at one week charts of some of the biggest sovereigns around the globe whether it is boonz up 20 plus basis points on the week ten year up is 15 basis points on the week. but you'll

sara, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much for that rick santelli.ns weighing whether to vote on their health care bill this week as cbo released that score. joining us from washington on what could be a pivotal week yl a ylan mui ylan >> cbo score found it would leave 22 million more people uninsured. republicans don't have enough support to even begin debating the bill four gop senators say they will likely block a procedural vote expected to happen today or tomorrow in order for the senate to vote on the substance of the bill before leaving town at the end of the week. susan collins of maine, rand paul of kentucky, johnson of wisconsin and dean heller of nevada, already getting hit with attack ads for his stance. senator ted cruz opposes the bill as well but is still deciding to move forward. >> conversations continue and they're productive the current draft doesn't have the votes to pass but i believe we can get to yes and i believe we ultimately will get to yes. >> negotiations are under way. the vice president will try to woo conservatives at a

let's get to rick santelli in chicago. >> good morning. know, the numbers aren't big, but they're important. especially when you're looking at the short end. the two year yields have come back to 134. when they were under 1.30 there were issues regarding the fed. we can argue why the fed will continue to raise rates or not, but the market is convinced that despite all the issues and the dovishness of the federal reserve or their commentary that the market and the yield curve are looking for more. if you look at one week of tens, clearly you see we're up. as everybody is talking about including carl. we close at 2.19 yesterday. so we're up three on the day, but more important to me, we're only up one on the week from 2.21 to where we it is at 2.22. look at one week of bunds. that spread has changed. the ecb met yesterday. this will play through the system, but if you look at that spread it augers that we're going to continue to move together and maybe shrink some of this wideness that's developed since mario draghi and his press conference.

. >> santelli and i had a private bet going. >> a shame is what you remember? >> he only brings it up when i fail. >> once again, i have to be the adult and say everybody stop talking now. have a good weekend. have a safe trip back to walk. >> that is it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. overlooking new york city's time's square t. traders are tim seymour, steve grasso and guy adami, i'm mellissa lee t. top strategist fang says it is the perfect time to buy. he'll be here to explain why. >>> amazon causing a flash crash in the stock, surging if seconds. it could be a major warning for the markets. plus the bank is on fire hosting the best week of the year. one trader says it's a time to get short, tell us why it's worried. we start off the sector having its worst day since the brexit sell-off. the nasdaq soaring to record highs, turning lower, on no news, one of the worst sessions of the year on extremely heavy volume, taking the rest of the market with it. it was the fang stock with the extra egg in it. the mo

rick santelli tracking that at the cme. i don't know if you heard the bill gross interview but steve liesman talked about fed funds going to 3%. what's your take on everything going on >> reporter: 2.87, 30-year dutch auction yield. i gave the auction a c-plus. charlie plus all the metrics were average price tight, though, with that 2.87 now done i had former governor robert helle are r on he said the same thing and i don't dispute the notion that there's a good argument to be made the rest of the market isn't under normalization function it's not going to normalize. i don't think the long end can handle that. i think bill gross is right. they'll invert the curve never a good thing >> rick, thank you very much we will see you again soon, rick santelli >>> folks, bitcoin has been hitting record highs can you actually live off of bitcoin? we did and by we i mean seema we will tell you what happened and the uber report crossing and travis kalanick is taking a w llt fe te omheomny howi iafctheir valuation? that question next so

joining us today are season's mark santelli and jim khan.had been saying that the market was overdue, especially tech, for a correction. but the timing and the precipitousness of the decline today, what do you make of that? >> it's interesting. now, banks started to rally a couple days ago. you started to see the inklings of some kind of rotation in the works. i think once we got those sort of big feared events out of the way yesterday, i think people thought, okay, this is the time for the rotation. a little bit of cautious tone on apple catalyzed things. you also had a heavy selling in the etf, the qqq etf, and a little bit of a crash flash in amazon stock, around 250. that put in the bottom for the day. i think the relevant thing is not that we got a shakedown in the overly crowded names. it is that it rotated, and the s&p is dead flat. on a day when tech was down 2.5%, it did not cause the entire market to break apart. >> let's go to the nasdaq market site right now. >> we're going to talk more about this. bertha coombs is up town with t

rick santelli. some of these losses are accelerating target is now down 9%. >> very tough.hey moved in so aggressively even that last quarter food was so tough for them i thought it was tough for dollar general very tough for target. now, now what do you do? now what do you do target's trying to come up with the strategy so badly. what do you do supervalu with the incredibly stretched balance sheet. kroger's not going away. they'll compete. a wegman's, a private company can compete. but the guys who have broken models to begin with which is what i was most fearful of with target they're a head scratcher. costco, they'll come up with something. but they won't make as much money. >> sure. we're trying to think of deals, single deals that resulted in so much carnage for others. >> total disruption situation. >> yeah. >> i have to go back in time. >> nothing comes to mind immediately, right >> no. because i can't recall anything that -- where you just had one guy come in and change the margins for everyone i mean, we have the situations periodically i remember when johnson & jo

. >>> rick santelli is tracking action at the cme.ck. >> we know that equities for the most part haven't had a bad run this year but if you look at a ten-year note yields, you can see in the middle there's low yield and we're bumping along and not that many basis points above 212. you see the way barclays plummeted and some of the moves have moved so dramatically and then it shot back up look at price versus spread. see the way it's going down? the reason i bring that up is even with yields down and stocks up, it certainly seems that the oil market has gotten the high yield attention again. finally the dollar index and month-to-date, it's trying to find traction. melissa lee, thank you >> santelli, thank you. >>> mortgage rates are hovering at 17-year lows. should you be re-fiing right now diana olick has some answers >> people looking to save cash on their monthly mortgage payment but millions are not biting either because they don't know or don't want to go through the hassle close to 4.5 million borrowers, maybe you, are eligible a

let's get to the bond pitts as well check in with rick santelli in chicago.ood morning, carl. if you look at the global he equities in europe they're up. we talked about bank bailouts and how many rules and regulations were made across the globe not to put tax pay yes, sir on the line but in italy bond holders were spared what's going on in fixed income i can tell you quickly two are unchanged. tens are just down two they're now down one 3rd years are down four. sounds like flattening it is. steady as she impose feds continue to remove the combination reflected there. you see we're dropping off we're dabbling with it now pretty much the same pattern of course if the government is going to orchestrate bailouts the market is accommodating even on the switched income side. i talked about the flattening curve. let's look at it hovering and 78. going back to september of 2016. 30s minus 5s now hovering around 94 this is the lowest, flattest it's been in ten years as you see on the chart starting in '07. finally the dollar index june was going to be the month of th

rick santelli at the cme. rick listen, my wife is from chicago, i love the city it's fantastic.l perspective. this is the lowest credit rating ever for any state. what's going to happen here? >> your guess is as good as anybody else's brian but let's put more of a face on this. you're talking illinois, chicago itself is really no better. s&p have that one step above. this is 23rd month brian no budge. yesterday the spring session i think, which is why a lot of it is coming to the forefront but much has been expected. at the end of year that's when the fiscal year ends. runs from july till the end of june, 3rd fiscal year no budge. democrats led by mike mat again, speaker and they can't get anything done with the republican governor. i don't know how it's going to end but not only are we under state ordered rules for how we pay or bills and what's going on, sounds kind of like puerto rico, but consider this, 14 to 14.5 billion in arrear wasn't only, it wasn't only the general obligation bonds appropriation that was cut to one level of junk as well. >> and you know -- i'm not goin

rick santelli is following the action at the cme. is going on with yields >> reporter: wow, it was a wild one and obviously the horrific, the horrible events in d.c. didn't really make the market move much. as a matter of fact anybody whos had a one-minute chart, check it out. it was 8:30 eastern that did the market damage. we're down ten basis points. less inflation, maybe the fact it's on a fe d-day that will most likely end up in a rise of rates, a tightening, and it really came home if you look at a november first chart, we all know we haven't a lot of ground quickly in november we are getting close to back filling that but really the leader in this that i've been talking about this very weird relationship, it hasn't had any bounce to the ounce. now in the 96s, it's hard to imagine that they aren't going to get closest to 10%. what do you think it did to the yield curve? 74 will be huge support. the reason this is important, once again, it's all about the long end, yes, we're down at 130 i in twos. >> laid it all out there with y

let's get to rick santelli and get a check on the bond market from the group in chicago. >> let's look charts i like to do that on friday. one week of twos now interesting it popped and went side ways and if you look at it it's up a couple of basis points on the week unchanged on the day. let's move down the curves let's look at tens which by the way unchanged on the day, unchanged on the week. look at that one week chart. so it popped early in the week but it popped from settlement and then dropped down and went sideways along set southern landment 215 you have seen it a few times this week. now here's where it gets fun one week of 30s it came out of the box pretty good but unlike tens it went down and it's been hovering bottom fishing here so let's look at 30s minus 5 a lot of excitement among traders this week. it started to get some legs. dollar index is up a little bit on the week and down a little bit on the day and on this chart what is interesting is it looks like it wants to get traction. is it already running out of gas? never had a close with a 98 handle maybe if we take a b

let's check in with rick santelli as well good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.technician f you're interested in global markets if you're fascinated how central banks are going to thread the needle on a ten year experiment of ultra accommodation, this has been your week and you should highlight it a lot of moving parts this week. just consider this, bunds are up 20 basis points some of our trading partners in europe you can see what we're talking about. the spanish ten year this is kind of all one market and we want them to be able to thread the need. all i can tell you is the markets are paying a lot of attention and i think some especially mario draghi wishes he would have phrased things different. i'm glad he didn't there's an end game here and investors are starting to get on board with the notion and finally one week of euro versus the dollar let's see, just a bit under 112. what do i see now? 114.09 enough said. 115, could be an area that will slow down and when it does slow down considering what yields are doing maybe at that point the dollar will take a t

rick santelli checks in from chicago.eff in cleveland, i keep hearing, this is the kind of report you get when you have a tight labor market. is that what you're seeing here? >> i think we are getting close to a tight labor market, bill. we're at 4.3 on the unemployment rate. that's the lowest in 15 or 16 years. i would say, though, i did comb through the jobs report, and that u-6 measure did fall, it's at 8.4. i think it has further room to fall, bill. it could get down to 7% in this cycle. at that point i think we would say we're at a much tighter labor market. we're getting close, this is a good step in the right direction, we're not quite there yet. >> is the market rallying, because it looks at it that way and says, hey, a tighter labor market, these are things that happen in a growing economy? or is it looking at it as, it's less likely the federal reserve is going to hike rates this year. is it the good or the bad they like? >> it's probably a mixture of both. the fact of the matter is, earnings have been very good

but broader tech sector hit today, and for more, closing bell exchange with ke n kevin, and rick santellis at the cme in chicago kevin, starting with you earlier in the week, we thought the tech side extenned losses, but, again, reigniting today. is that a significant concern for you for the sector >> no, it's not. it's not a significant concern for me because when you look at what tech has done this year versus the s&p, it's outperformed the s&p by almost 9% so having a pullback like you're seeing today is only very minor. you know, tech represents almost 23% of thes&p 500, so i think right now what you're seeing is just people taking some profits. overall, tech is not that expensive, but, you know, you have the big five names out there that have, you know, gotten a little bit ahead of themselves >> kevin, if you had $17 and ha to pick a share of snap or twitter, what would you pick >> i would like to pass on both of them, but, you know, we don't pick individual stocks, so i would probably pass in answering that question, but, you know - >> all right >> we usually use a broad basket of t

portfolio manager of the hodges fund, he's out there on the floor somewhere, and rick santelli is in chicago steve, you're been talking about lower oil, it's happening. how much lower and why isn't it taking the rest of the market with it right now do you think >> i think the break evens have come down. efficiencies through a lot of the companies, a lot of large integrated names, i think that's a good thing overall i do believe that it was a telegraph punch that we saw from the ipo that's coming down the pike since when do the saudis to want share in the wealth. i thought that was telegraphed movement in the direction of oil. if you look at global growth, that's probably a telegraph punch as well. and i think, you see this run-up that we've had in tech this run-up we've had in every sector, except for energy and financials, keeps a hopeful eye on pro growth policies normally they give up 30 seats the demes only need 24, maybe it's pro growth policies that shorts don't want to get in the way of >> eric, what about you, i see you have a couple names here in the market environment how w

so professor santelli, explain this. goes you could argue bonds and gold are safe havens or hedges, whatever, but how do you explain bonds going up, maybe on low inflation expectations, but yet gold is going up, the ultimate inflation hedge, what's going on here? >>. >> because we only get to trade a portion of the treasury markets. one-third of the tradeable security were held by central banks, leaving two-thirds for the rest of us. that 33% makes a big difference in terms of how the price reacts where yields go, and the signal that sends. if we're at 75 basis points higher, i don't think we'd be worried how rates affect equities, and it's not a trick to get rates up that much, two, three days of selling by central banks probably would be just the ticket, but we're not going to see that, and i'm being comical here, but in the end, i'm not sure what the rates mean, how we should react to that stock. i'm operating under the premise that volatility is something that shows up in attendance in tops and bottoms, not seeing th

joining us is cnbc's senior economic's reporter, steve liesman and rick santelli. we begin this hour with the biggest question facing investors. if the economy is allegedly so good, the job market so robust, why do bond yields keep falling and what could that mean for the future of the trump rally? rick, makes me think something's got to break, something's got to give. bonds or stocks first? >> i think it will be mario draghi and the central bank of japan. i think one of the biggest reasons interest rates globally are going down is because traders always follow the biggest trader in the room. they always do. down here in the '80s, we had tom baldwin. when he'd jump up and down and bid for a thousand bonds at a time, it was big. what do you think every small local next to him did? bit on a one lot or a two or three lot. so i think in that regard, there's a trillion dollars year to date being invested by central banks. ever heard of soma? wh we have auction, might be 28 billion sevens. then the fed is probably buying another four we don't talk about. the other channe

rick santelli, what are you watching?h the notion that yes we've had some movement and rates, but we're virtually unchanged. stocks were up triple digits. investors have made a financial choice, it seems to coincide with another financial choice. we'll hear about that, after the break. >>>. >>> keith pier is live and exclusive with you on halftime. >>> plus the markets new records, but are there new opportunities to make any money. citron's andrew left with another warning on nvidia. our gang is fighting back hard. that stock is on the move. it was negative on the day. michael, see you at the top of the hour. >> thank you very much. meanwhile, puerto ricans heading to the polls on sunday. leslie joins us with a preview. hi, leslie. >> reporter: hey, guys, despite this paradise setting is an economy that's engulfed it a ten-year-long recession, currently undergoing bankruptcy proceedings. this weekend, this sunday residents will head to the polls on whether to become the 51st state, to become a sovereign nation or remain a

and rick santelli checks in from the see me in chicago. rick, i want to start with you because yesterday we talked about this taper tantrum that the european treasuries had had after mario said, you know, used the word reinflammation instead of disinflation, and the ecb had to walk that back today. you know, those yields haven't given up all the that much as a result of that, have they? >> no, and that really is the point, listen, i get the walkback, i understand none of this has ever been done before, central bankers are a little apprehensive, words have meaning at this point. the market paid a whole lot more attention, and you're exactly right. whether you look at spain, italy, candie, u.s., bobbles, the amount of increase in rates yesterday was larger than the givebacks today. reminds me a lot of the stock market for many, many weeks in 2017, where we had very few corrections and when we do have down dates, they're dwarfed by the updates, same type of thing. how are we supposed to interpret that my reasoning after talking to many fixed

we've got the steves we've got rick santelli. diane, let me go first to you for the significance of today's rate hike. the significance of the balance sheet and where you think this leaves us. >> well, i think it's really interesting that the fed stuck to its guns on the hikes i think the market was expecting a more dovish view from the fed. even though the fed acknowledged that inflation is below target, how the chair really went through and saw that as a transitory phenomena related to cell phone pricesgoing down, the unlimited data we're getting, and a one-time drop in prescription drug prices i think that's very important. clearly she sees this as a transitory event there are clearly people who disagree perhaps even some board of governors. had some issues on that. i think another really important point was that last comment by chair yellen you really see how she was a veteran of the 90s as the labor market tightens, you see training workers that's something she welcomes. the other side of the issue is where we're at today so

rick santelli in chicago. we'll get "stop trading" with jim in a moment. the dow keeping its cards close to the vest. it's up one point. cdw brought i.t. orchestration to printing, dramatically increasing print security with enterprise printers by hp. which is great, unless you're a corporate spy. unsecured printing makes your network vulnerable. enterprise printers by hp help prevent costly security breaches that can compromise your network and reputation. so i'm stuck spying the old fashioned way. hey. i'm not spying. secure printing by hp. i.t. orchestration by cdw. >>> time for cramer and "stop trading." >> they laughed at me not unlike the way they laughed at kerry in the gym before i brought the house down. i'm talking about canada goose. said this would be real. they have exceptional revenue growth. predicted 25% growth for 2016 to 2018. canada goose is going higher. ha-ha to those who -- i'm going to grab them from the grave if i have to, that's how i feel so much about sissy spacek versus john travolta. workday, they tried to keep it down. and the

sidewalk alley rick santelli has the grade. >> it's only first of two.nother auction at 1:00 eastern. this particular auction 24 billion three year notes the yield at the dump auction 1.50 which was lower than the offer side of the one issued market that's always a good thing. let's look and internals 3.00 good to cover for every dollar worth of securities available $3 of bid. three times over subscribed to that's the best since december 15 65.6 on indirect best since thanksgiving of '09 6.2 a little light with an 8% ten auction average. dealers take a bid over 28%. this is a b plus, plus auction 20 million tens in about 84 minutes. so you want to make sure you see that carl, back to you. >>> rick, big week setting up. >>> it's the biggest week of the year for video game documents. e3 and microsoft have unveiled its long awaited new console julie boorstin is at the briefing just talked to its gaming chief about the console. >> reporter: that's right. this is the new microsoft console. called the x-box 1x. goes on sale november 7th and cost $499. that is

he's at post 9 with fjs services rick santelli is at the cme in chicago. what do you think of -- we gained this much yesterday now we're taking it all back what doyou think is going on here >> and it was suddenly the opening look slightly mixed, maybe even a little better, and then the tech stocks looked like a trapdoor opened underneath them techs began to plunge. that dragged everything down right behind them. you noted that the dow at its worst was down much more than this well, all day long, nasdaq's been down on a percentage basis twice as much as the dow is. so it shows you how badly the techs are there. people talk about a little sign of rotation in that the financials are up, and some of the energy stocks are up but they are up nowhere near as much as what the techs and other things are down. >> what do you think is going on with the techs this isn't the first day people have been selling them hard, but maybe it's the hardest yet >> i think there's still opportunities in tech. but it's got to be more in a consistent free cash grower like oracle, wh

to get to that again joe duran from united capital is with us, kenny polcari at post 9 and rick santelli checks in from chicago with us today. kenny, i said this earlier today. the stock market will never go down again discuss. >> uh-oh. >> it certainly feels like that, right? though if you were here last week if you were on vacation and tech came under pressure it would be a very different kind of tone and sense earlier in the week, but today i think this is all a direct result of what's happening in d.c., all the tech companies, all looking at big contracts. technology now is leading the way higher today the total overall volume today is not explosive so i think that's much more of a bounceback not only in the tech sector and i also think over the weekend there were no surprises out of france, no political upheaval and i think it's almost more of a relief with the majority, but then rates going up, that should give you the sense that the markets should come under a little bit of pressure but we're not seeing that. >> and the other thing that happened we had a rate hoik. >> we heard abo

discussion >> that one day, repricing of everything and then we're sort of back to that moment >> santellisted the past couple of weeks that dollar to 96 sort of harbors a potential retest of 185. which was the level you're at on the ten year just prior to election results >> yeah, there is that kind of big bit of open air. that says there wuasn't a lot of activity between 215 >> the interesting thing with this happening is that the fed and others will point out, financial conditions are still so supportive, still good. they're loose so to speak, so, you know, you can kind of pick whether you want u to go by on the dashboard, the inflation and maybe the disappointing growth numbers or financial conditions which say things are almost at record highs >> yeah, extremely low stress levels and markets are displaying that. if you look at stock and bond volatility, it's basically another one of these measures at multidecade lows, so it's calm everybody's formulas are saying it seems calm. there's no stress events we have to be looking out for now, but does it mean when you get a twing to the expe

. >> rick santelli would tell you, judge, that the fed isn't the only one out there trying to move interest rates. that the pits move interest rates. where that money, where the trillions of dollars are traded back and forth, and the pits have said that they don't think the likelihood is that we're going to see rates moving up in the short-term now, for the longer term, i do think we're going to see that, because the fed has now hit us three times with rate hikes. each time, rates have gone down. so i think this is going to be a turn here, where we start seeing the recovery in europe impacting optimism about growth in europe, which then people start selling those bonds that have just skyrocketed yet again. and i think that is what's partially behind this big xlf trade today. somebody bought a ton of calls >> expectations are very low on rates, in general. draghi talks about no deflation or lack of deflation today and rates spike up it won't take much to get rates up and i don't think you need rates up that much >> i love this next question, because it is a debate that we've been having almo