kayla, back to you >> rick santelli with a unique santelli exchange today. i was hoping for "dr.o." maybe next time. >> most amazing dad joke i saw in one santelli exchange >>> all right. coming up on "squawk alley," how a group of doctors is using technology to address one of the dilemmas facing health care today. "squawk alley" is back after this hundreds of dollars on youmy car insurance. saved me huh. i should take a closer look at geico... (dog panting) geico has a 97% customer satisfaction rating! and fast and friendly claims service. speaking of service? oooo, just out. it was in. out. in! out. in! what about now? that was our only shuttlecock. take a closer look at geico. great savings. and a whole lot more. >>> with the health insurance debate raging in wash, what a group of doctors and entrepreneurs turned their attention to tackling the shortage of health care professionals across the professionals across the u.s with us is dr. alexi nazen, nomad ceo. welcome. great to have you at post nine >> great to be here to tell you a little bit about nomad >> you compete with th

for a special santelli exchange.e "squawk on the street." to keep our community safe. before you do any project big or small, pg&e will come out and mark your gas and electric lines so you don't hit them when you dig. call 811 before you dig, and make sure that you and your neighbors are safe. 811 is available to any business our or homeownerfe. to make sure that you identify where your utilities are if you are gonna do any kind of excavation no matter how small or large before you dig, call 811. keep yourself safe. >>> let's get over to the cme and the rick santelli exchange good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. a little delay, folks. the fed is going to, of course, potentially begin its two-day meeting without any major changes, so say many but there's one topic besides balance sheet reduction i'm interested in and i want to know more information on. that's interest on reserves. >> is this something we want to continue to pay? should they be talked about? >> i think it's a very bad idea. the fed is really givi

rick santelli. >>> oil back to 46.61.angelis is at the xhoddy dexho commodity desk >> we're trading over the 50-day moving average the 200-day as well. there's some support here but some saying the up side is limited. a couple other reasons, a stronger dollar. pardon me, weaker dollar which is also supported and at the same time, we're seeing some short covering as we head into the weekend. we don't always move in a straight line when it comes to crowd oil prices seasonally speaking, you could bounce around and see moves like this on track for about a 5% gain for the week back to you. >> thank you very much >>> speaking of commodities, baker hughes ringing the opening bell this morning following their merger and the new company's official listing here last week at the new york stock exchange joining us, a first on cnn interview is the new baker hughes ceo making money in any cycle. can this be done >> that's the name of the game what we've done is created really a powerhouse in the oil and gas industry by taking two iconi

"squawk alley" will be back after this >>> dow is down 47 let's get to rick santelli and get the "santellihange." >> hi, carl. hey, anybody take a peek exchan. >> hi, carl. anybody take a peek at where the euro's trading, 116 handle listen, earlier i said if you want to know what's going on, you have to call the ebi the euro bureau of investing all right. let's get this straight. mario draghi comes out, most people on this floor said he will be dovish they will be long the dollar, short the euro because euro should go down if he's dovish, so they were dovish, they were long the dollar and they were wrong. that's the way it works. now does that make sense not necessarily, but that's why i call it the ebi. there used to be a time when the market was in control, and we could argue it's been a long topic. i don't think anybody said it better than jim grant, mr. bond himself yesterday, radical monetary policy begets more radical monetary policy. it's salting i think mario draghi, ben bernanke and janet yellen said their mission is imposition and tom cruise is nowhere to be found. that's the rea

let's get to the cme group check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. >> good morning know it's the first day of our two day fed meeting but i still talking about the european union the ecb, all that is the euro-zone. why? well, as i'm talking, i want you to look at a chart this is a one year chart of italian ten year rates hovering around, what, 213, 214. definitely lower than ours and contemplate that when you think of problematic banks, i don't know, what do you think of italy, portugal? yes. they pop into your head. and the main issue here is that the european central bank in many ways giving the fed latitude to move some of the accommodation. what am i talking about? okay well, look at the dax and the cac and what is going on in europe with their equities look what is going on with the euro it's a stellar performer it's big moves we're getting close to a 117 hand will. so our fed while all this is going on, the dollar is weaker, our rates are lower than they might otherwise be for a variety of reasons we won't get into, it's a time to start doing things the down s

rick santelli with the santelli exchange rick >> kelly, i don't know if we have anything to talk aboutt's see. why don't we start out with the quote yesterday, still ringing in my ears we all said it nobody says it like jim grant. radical monetary policy gets more radical monetary policy drogy? >> you see that box right now. he's got a huge balance sheet which is the size of the fed's >> bigger. >> bigger? yes, you're right. dpenlding on the currency exchange and he's now using that to manipulate the markets so now whenever he says some word that somebody didn't think, you get a huge move out of the market he is the first, second, third and fourth most important person in the european bond market. he's probably the second most important person in u.s. bond market after janet yellen. that is the problem with radical monetary poll sichlt they're infectively taking over the markets. >> when i talk to many men and women that trade in this room and many that used to trade in this room trading somewhere else, i always hear something like, well, it doesn't make sense. our fed is kind of tryin

is there with the santelli exchange.> good morning. my guest this morning is peter thanks for being with me this morning. >> good to be here, rick. >> called from brexit to fake trade deals, the curse of the confirmation bias. the reason i urge all our viewers to read it is one of the big things that happen this had g20 was get iting under way was the announcement that the japanese and europeans had cut a trade deal the reality is that they might talk about a trade deal. it's far from a done deal. i want to talk about it in the context of global trade and the cross trades and how they've been moving. particularly the euro/yen. euro doing great against all the currencies, but especially considering the japanese and germans are kind of in the same business, exporting cars how is it going to turn out with this cross trade, with this pending trade agreement? any thoughts, peter? >> that always sort of mucks up a free trade agreement you want free trade at the same time you want staple currencies. the companies that win produ

let's get to rick santelli at the cme group in chicago for the santelli exchange as always.rning, rick. >> thank you i'd like to welcome andy brenner. andy, usually when you're on together, you're remote. so great you're in chicago, in town for a charity event you're a good guy. i look at the markets, i see canada higher, i see japan higher, all of europe higher, treasuries are higher. and a lot of this started the day after the 26th of june not that many sessions ago i call it the g20 because there's a lot of governments now in europe whose tenures have moved well over 20, now closer to 30 basis points just in a handful of trading days, your thoughts >> well, draghi opened up pandora's box and overnight it was the 30 year french auction that did very poorly that was the catalyst for what we're seeing today they've risen up to 55 basis points when you just said, june 26, 22, 23 basis points. so people are fearful independent counsel that the central banks, the end of the quantitative easing is near and it's going to be worse and worse and worse and you're going to have to ma

. >>> let's get over now to the cme group and rick santelli for the santelli exchange.i, rick >> hi, thank you, sarah. you know, energy is a big deal as i look up at the board, hey, we're almost back up to $50 for crude oil. i can remember when it was multiples higher when i think of that, i think of stephen chu. he was the first secretary of energy for barack obama. i thn he ran from '09 to '13 in that post. the reason i remember him so well is because he seemed to have this fascination with europe he loved their $10 price for gasoline matter of fact, he wanted $10 gasoline here. wanted it. use that notion in speeches. because he knew what was best for us in you have $10, you make things that are not feasible feasible things like renewables this is about bridges. i'm talking about bridges here because it's hard to argue with the nakt we afact that we all wo take care of the planet and hard to argue that no society that has an active manufacturing presence can be a great economy without energy and the cheaper the energy is, the more profit you make, the bigger your manu

let's get over to rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. >> good morning, carl.now, we've had so many interesting episodes since the credit crisis, the great recession and all the policy that was piled on thereafter, good and bad but one thing we learned, will tl were many periods when bad news is good news and there are periods when markets seemed to have done what everybody thought but for much longer. technical analysis sometimes can give you all the right levels. it's the timing that's the most difficult. back in the '80s before computers were big, if the fed wanted to tweak effective fed funds rate, they would do purchases, match sales and in that period which is about the same every morning, the markets used to be called subject. and when it was fed days before we had what we have today, the immediate coverage by everybody, the markets on your screen would just get an asterisk and flash because markets were subject mean, anything you saw you needed to be careful you neede to be careful on i think right now the markets in europe are subject i call it the eur

we've done a santelli exchange that's the kind of market thin we're talking about.n't stress enough that the move that we had from the fourth right before the election to the 14th right after the election, that move gives you so many clues. when markets move in big ways in a thin fashion, you don't see in quick lly lines there, it happened pretty quickly, it gives you clues. we've done this before, thirds bond markets like thirds, everything about thirds so we know the low was 178 we know the high on the 14th was 226. so we went through this, 48 basis points, divide it by three, 16 basis points becomes something important. now, hold on the that thought and let's go through it. so you had 178, you add 16 basis points, 194, you add 16 basis points, 210. if i do recall the most recent low right here was 212, 212.5, pretty darn close. the next level up, of course, is 226. but now the next number is the one i want to pay close attention to 2.42%. that's your 16 basis points on top of your 226. now let's go to the boards significant levels for 2017 it's easy, 13th of marc

that let's get to the cme group and get the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. you know, there's much uncertainty with regard to how the exit of all policies by central banks that have ultimately the same operating manual flood the market with as much liquidity as possible, purchase securities and then corporate securities as well as sovereign government securities and in the case of japan, stocks, etfs. just buy everything in sight it sounds a little unfair for those that look at investing as kind of a, you know, risky potential. you take on more risk, you get more reward. you take on less risk, you get less reward. with the thumb on the scale, rewards are good when you think about the he can wid markeequits maybe not if you look at an income stream if you're holding securities but i'm getting off the point a bit. the spread between ten year notes and boons may offer some clues. let's go to the white board. take ten year notes, minus ten year boons, it is hovering at the lowest level since november. the phigh water mark is when it was 235 basis points that sepa

let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> good morning, carl.f times being spent not only on this trading floor but probably in trading rooms, computer rooms that are programming writing software for algos trading the markets on foreign exchange one of the hot ones this year, of course, the euro versus the dollar or the euro versus the pound or the yen let's look at a 20 year chart on your screen. 20 year chart of the euro versus the dollar look at the way the markets moved and view that 120 line that is above the market a little over three points above the market considering where trading over 90 -- 1.16 right now. that 1.20 area is in traders minds. it helps to look at the more passive side of the equation we'll go to a 20 year chafrt the doll chart of the dollar index. a couple things we know but are worth rementioning fact that 10220 is where the markets set thld year. and the reason i find that so interesting is because it was at such a lofty point when you look at how far back that goes, it really is well preprices, right back down into th

we'll get to the cme group in the meantime to get the santelli exchange hey, rick. >> hi, carl.ng to read something that the president said it isn't the first time he's said it to "the wall street journal. everybody is talking about that interview. we'll put it on the screen this regarding janet yellen. i think she's done a good job. i would like to see rates stay low. she's historically been a low-interest-rate person listen, having low rates created by price discovery, by investors getting together, assimilating all the data points, strong data, rates go up, weak data, rates go down. and obviously central banks historically have nudged, used interest rates as ale too, i get it but we are many bus stops beyond the nudging phase where i personally have a problem is when the outcome becomes most important. in other words, the president doesn't seem to be saying, listen, i love when the markets look at what's going on in the world, they see weakness and stay low that's not really what he's saying what he's saying in my opinion, i'm paraphrasing, is in many other parts of his life

we'll see you then let's get to the cme group in the meantime rick santelli, get the santelli exchangek >> reporter: good morning, carl. like to welcome my guest he's usually always our guest after employment reports ed lazear, the economist's economist. ed, thanks for taking the time today. >> thank you, rick pleasure to be with you. >> all right give me your observations on the data, you know, 22,000, pretty good, upward revision last month. >> right. >> labor force participation moves up to 62.8 we did see a tick up in the unemployment rate. i somewhat look past that and see all the people we don't count. your thoughts? >> yeah, yeah, well, you nailed it except for one good number, and it's an important one. it's the one i always point out which is average weekly hours. that's up .1, and that's always a big deal because a tenth of an hour it the equivalent of 100,000 jobs when that moves up that's a good thing. it's back up to the level that it was up about a year and a half ago it hasn't been there since then and that's good news so overall a good report the one -- two negatives ac

scott, thank you let's get to the cme group rick santelli has "the santelli exchange" as always. >> youheard steve talking about growth, we're going to get our advance look at second quarter gdp. everybody is kind of excited and whenever we think of gdp, we think of central banking policy, we think of the yield curve and we think of an economic signal the yield curve slat ening mean recession, steepening does it mean growth in sn listen, i don't think we can read that into it anymore. but the yield curve is telling us something as you see that one year chart on your screen, we hover around 95 basis points with a low of 80, you look to the left of your chart, it held an important bottom at 74 the steepening probably is due to the fact that janet yellen and company probably are not going to tighten a lot more this year so that has changed. it's reflected in the long end there. and the short end so short end rates coming down a bit because the two year isn't as aggressively looking at fed tightening but it could be a combination of the long end thinking about balance sheet reduction which

rick santelli and bob pisani joining us as well you said this morning that for those who -- we don't have rick yet. but i think bob pisani is here watching the market. bob, i'll turn to new terms of market reaction that steve mentions any turn really in either yields or financials? anything beyond the bit in tech we saw this morning? >> she did make an interesting comment related to the banks she said she open to tests for strongter formers. the kbe, the bank index did move up a little bit on that of course, anything reducing regulatory pressure object banks will be a positive overall. so small move up in the bank stocks on. that also she made a very interesting comment on the labor market the labor market is quite tight. we may see pressure on cages these are things concerning people in the second half of the year margins are very high level right now, 10% and wage pressure will erode the margins. i personally, of course woshgs love to see wage pressure happening. but bottom line is a number of companies have already come out and said they're seeing pressure on wages darden made a c

and that is what jamie diamond is worried about back to you, john fort. >> thank you, rick santelli. keeping an eye on amazon stocks as prime day continues. it's actually lower. so is best buy walmart outperforming both of them let's bring in aaron kessler, senior interne senior internent analyst at raymond james. good morning to both of you. ed, i'll start with you. so others are sort of picking up on prime day, renaming it, copying it what actually is amazon's advantage in having this day beyond the obvious they got it prime loyalty program. how is their fly wheel different from the other retailers >> well, wii think one thing thy have that's a huge advantage is an incredibly compelling suite of devices some of the best discounts today are things like the echo, the kindle, and what they're hoping is that you buy these devices at great prices and that you continue to use them throughout the year these are things that are sticky and create an advantage that they have, versus other retailers. >> eriaaron, it's actually a lil less clear how the echo fits into this longer term. the idea

rick santelli.n on the energy complex as well jits jackie deangelis at the commodity desk. >> good morning to you, carl it's not a surprise to see a drop in crude prices this morning. about 2% we saw some strength going into the fourth of july 8 straight days of gains and crude's best win streak since 2012 part of it was that seasonal strength holiday weekend, nice weather, encouraging motorists to get out. the other part was the recount decline we saw last week only two rigs came off but that broke a 23-week win streak so now what? the fourth of july euphoria is wearing off and there's likely to be some profit taking remember some of the gains we saw were from short covering the market is going to come back to reality a bit reuters headlines reporting that opec exports increased in june, that's the second month in a row, and the strengthening dollar as well, bearish points the supportive trends have been encourage bugts they have to continue for that support to remain all eyes will be on the invent

the lowest prices. >>> welcome back let's get out to the cme group rick santelli with the santelli exchangerick. >> good morning, and thank you, sara like to welcome my first guest of the week, peter wallaceson, thanks for taking the time as former general treasury counsel. you've written some interesting pieces, especially regarding gse potential reform one of the most recent, the national association of realtors getting a little skittish about the amount of capital money buffer in the government-sponsored enterprise, you know, freddie and fannie and everybody trying to get a mortgage, they want to maybe establish some sort of market liquidity fund your thoughts on that notion >> i don't really think it's necessary. it's a bit of an alarmism going on here. in fact, if the two gses need some more capital, they can always assess the treasury, the treasury will produce it i don't think that will cause any disruption in the market the real problem here, of course, is that the gse still exists and we have to do something about that >> all right now, you know, i couldn't have picked a better way

rick santelli.hen we come back, more on that meeting happening between president trump and vladimir putin. we're awaiting headlines as the meeting wraps up, and we'll share them with you as we get them time? wait, our data center and our clouds can't connect? michael, can we get this data to...? look at me...look at me... look at me... you used to be the "yes" guy. what happened to that guy? legacy technology can handcuff any company. but "yes" is here. so, you're saying we can cut delivery time? yeah. with help from hpe, we can finally work the way we want to. with the right mix of hybrid it, everything computes. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm dominic chu. tech and discretionary text, very volatile week for tech spots. despite the 2% gain the sector will come in basically flat for the week so keep a track on technology stocks overall. that does it for "squawk on the street." let's send it back downtown for "squawk alley. >> it's 8:00 a.m. at palo altes headquarters in palo alto. "s

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stronger than expected rick santelli talked about it. to add immediately to the intraday chart that we were just showing to you another 40, 50 points. that has some people's attention. >> yep. >> we're going to see some of the components there i thought we were going to look at the components. >> we'll be doing that later on. >> i wonder to what degree is the move amplified about it lack of volume? it's a shortened trading session. you tend to get bigger moves on lower volume days. still, when you look at your portfolio at the end of the day, it's higher. >> the dollar is the same color. >> that's right. >> meanwhile, the administration focusing on national security with the implementation of a wider laptop ban and the supreme court's reinstatement of the controversial travel ban joining us this morning, the director of research at the national iranian-american council. on the phone, patrick surry is the chief data scientist for hopper hopper uses data to predict and analyze air fairs. what kind of laptop ban due to either fares or traff

with me here at post nine sara eisen, mike santelli, carl quintanilla has the day off. >>> we start withe day. the annual holiday made by amazon set to kick off tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern with deals aimed at rewarding prime members and, of course, recruiting new members to the premium option. just how important is prime to amazon always tricky to get the numbers. deadria is at amazon hq with some details good morning, deadria. >> good morning. that's right we're in the heart of amazon's rapidly expanding campus where employees are getting to work gearing up for the big ta. as you know amazon does not disclose the number of prime subscribers but estimates put it between 65 million and 85 million subscribers in the u.s put that in perspective that would be nearly 70% of all u.s. households and puts it on pace to become more popular than cable tv that has been very good business for amazon a recent study found that prime customers spend nearly double what non-prime customers spend and shop more often too. the reason most people still sign up the fast delivery of products there are a dizzy

speaking of something driven by the housing market or the opposite the bond market, and rick santelling troisi santelli tracking the action the bond market moves the housing market. >> i'm not sure what moves what with regard to housing and rates, but everyone wants to know what legislation or lack thereof moves markets and that's what this will be about. what i want you to notice is up until 5:00, 6:00 in the morning it was steady as show goes around 2:30. most of the news hit earlier that that and the drip wasn't very large let's take this chart all of the way back to june didn't have a gad june and made the annual low yield close in june, long before any legislation was r.i.p. let's look at what might have really been the cause today. let's look at the june 1st euro versus the dollar. wow! look at that takeoff look at a one-week chart and pay particularly close attention to the right side, basically today and how we plowed through the 115 handle and if you want to know why rates move and why the equity markets were squeamish? maybe it's the terror of the euro dollar and the euro ye

rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. yields are high on this one? >> yeah.'ll tell you what, melissa lee, this auction gives us a commentary about the fed statement, in my opinion 1.884 was the yield at the auction, well below the 1.89 or 892. lower yield, higher price. another "a" for the five-year note that's back to back a's. one more and we can start an auto club. 2.85 bid to cover. much better than the option average. 69.8 on indirects. that's the second best number on my dataset which goes back 15 years. the highwater mark was december of 2016. finally, 24.1% go to primary dealers. 6.2 directs above average. this option was great. top to bottom, they are not looking for a hawkish fed, in my opinion. most are looking for rates to come down. will they be correct i don't know we'll have to wait and see. >> rick santelli, thank you so much in just last hour, the united states announcing sanctions against the venezuelan government and senior administration officials told reporters if the country goes through with the controversial vote this sunday, there's

back to you. >> rick, thank you rick santelli. let's get to oil this morning.ackie deangelis is at the desk. jackie >> thank you saudis are considering cutting their exports by another million barrels a day. job owning, anybody? we talk about this all the time. a caveat to raising prices here. it's starting to trickle into the market as we've gotten to more depressed levels when we were hanging out around $45 a barrel doesn't mean they're going to do it market does react to headlines like this. the dollar index, being so low right now supportive of prices something to consider there. we've got inventories on deck tomorrow morning, department of energy supposed to report a 3 million barely draw. last few weeks or month or so you've been seeing these reports impact the market. finally, oil will react to earnings, as the stock market does as well, as a sign of demand back to you, carl. >> jackie, thank you very much for that dow is down 51 on some weakness at the banks netflix hit an all-time high on pretty good vomelu, on pace for the best day of the year >>> tim

star so and then somebody somebody said the odyssey i got the honesty and i did that with armando santelli for n.b.c. as a kind of a t.v. movie and they play it as part of the history classes and some of these schools sell some kids now buy from the odyssey there's a lot of spotlight on racism in hollywood sexism you have any thoughts on it is it was better well i i tend to think that it's better because there are more opportunities as more voices there's more avenues for people to to have their voices heard. you were the first black woman to be miss america nine hundred eighty three was there downside to being first. oh of course the downside is you get the brunt of all the anger and all the i mean you know i wrote a book with my mom because i needed not only to tell my story but my mother to tell how she was protecting me at twenty years old i was a junior at syracuse and i won i had no aspirations of our being a beauty queen but me being miss america overnights you know i had death threats being sent to my my course house here because of my color and then you lost your crown ten months

let's get to the cme group and the "santelli exchange". >> good morning.week, thank you for taking the time, peter >> thanks for having me, rick. >> all right last week treasury and national capital flows otherwise known as tic data, two months in arrears. may day to show foreigners just enamored with purchasing securities best pace and close to ten years. tell us what you think is going on, there peter. >> yeah, i think u.s. yields are just higher than the rest of the world. we're seeing that foreign buy. you're seeing as equity valuations hit all time highs, credit valuations are still a little wider than they were precrisis. i think there is actually more room for credit spreads to perform. which, you know, there's been so much talk about are we in a bond bubble or credit bubble. if anything looks cheap right now, especially with the foreign flows coming in. >> all right everybody watches the dynamic you're describing. that our rates are higher than many countries rates especially countries whose you acurrenciese on a terror like the euro-zone many beli

rick santelli is at the cme. rick >> two years settle at 1.35. 308s are at $2.85 unchanged. at intradays of twos and tens, they jump out at you it's been the glide path look at one-week and tens, it still glides down. there's wild action today. you like looking at dyhg, it's important because usually what sovereign prices are going up, yields are going down. high yield becomes the new love affair of investors. look at the chart. new highs of the year and for this etf going back to june of 2015 melissa lee, back to you. >> rick, thank you rick santelli. >>> scripps and discovery rising today on rumors of merger talks. what this says about content how you get it and the future of media. >>> and a retail worker at amazon everything that we've heard y tat the job losses in reil mabe wrong we've got that debate coming up next ♪ this is a story about mail and packages. and it's also a story about people. people who rely on us every day to deliver their dreams they're handing us more than mail they're handing us their business and while we make more e-commerce deliveries to homes t

. >> check in with rick santelli good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.o on the 19th the all time high in the dow, down 100 points. the s&p high that day too. 2473 here we are at 2467. nasdaq is making new highs i don't hear nearly as much about that as i do about all the things going on with that crowd you just saw but i do think there's another group that seems to be ignoring the benefits of the trades we have seen. it's these guys, not really going anywhere we're up a little today but we drifted down look at year to date you can clearly see that this market is barely holding on to levels, what about a dozen basis points away from the low yield close of the year. now when it comes to the dollar index we're all a little nervous about how weak it's been but like much in the news there's always another side to the story. let's shift the chart back a bit. now there was a year to date chart. pay particularly close attention to where we closed i talk about it a lot. 102.20 we're down a lot what over 7%? a little more. and the context to the move and the grand

. >> first up let's get to rick san te santelli. >> 93.1 was our read new read 93.4.lly all that good so it is a little better than the number we throw out which means that the actual previous number for june was 95.1 you have to go back to one month before the election. and it's a lot lower at 97.2 because once we hit november these numbers just ramped up and it's been dripping a bit 2.6 is the one year inflation outlook down from 2.7 with the 5 to 10 year inflation outlook in the survey we want to watch how the markets go at the weekend. >> back to you. >> thank you very much starbucks out with results yesterday beating estimates but lowering their profit forecast for the rest of the year stocks down 7% this morning. we talk to kevin johnson the krerks ceo. here's what he said. >> the data has to do with the u.s. data. thousands of restaurants that serve customers away from home food and beverage and you know over time that number just continues to grow but it has some ebbs and flows and what we have seen here in the last quarter is a little bit of softening in that

. >> michael, thank you as well, mike santelli here onset >>> meanwhile, second quarter investor letter. leslie picker joins us >> the numbers tell the whole picture. scott, beating the s&p 500 and an index of other hedge funds during the first half of the year, the firm led by dan lobe returned 10.7% in the six months through june that compares with an 8% jump in the s&p and 3.6% gain. that's according to a letter first obtained by cnbc this morning. in the letter, third point discussed a new equity investment in blackrock. they described the largest asset manager to be, quote, a misunderstood franchise. they actively managed hedge fund likes what it sees in passive securities notably, the blackrocks i shares had more inflows than the next ten competitors combined third point also invested in alibaba thanks to what the firm sees as the giant's new advertising products the firm is turning its focus for the second half of the year to a rate hike it will be on hold until growth and inflation accelerate the letter also highlighted that the trump trade is fading, exiting reflationary macro

. >> and paul, one of the things rick santelli pointed out earlier today was that we've had 3% or 3.7% quarters episodically over the past eight or nine years but what we're talking about here is not the stray anomalous quarter of 3 1/2% or even 4%, we're talking about sustained growth at that level >> yeah, if you get sustained growth at that level you get inflation because you start to get excessive borrowing. and with this slow rate of growth you get consumers who really aren't interested in splurging or bingeing on debt. and that's helped prolong the expansion. we think it will prolong the expansion even further, beyond 2018 >> maybe, paul, we should call this the dr. strangelove market. how i learned to stop worrying and love equities. right? because it seems like we grew up in a time, we all did, we're dating ourselves, when america could have been wiped out by russian icbms at any moment. literally we used to have nuclear bomb drills at my elementary school in california and yet the stock market began what was one of the greatest booms in history in 1982 do we overworry because

"closing bell" exchange from hightower is with us at most nine and so is kenny polcari and rick santelli checks in from chicago at the cme there. kenny, we were talking about this earlier it would be pretty clear that the algorithms read the headlines about the release of the e-mails and down went the market and it left the humans scratching their heads wondering what the big sdeel about. >> that's absolutely true. technology is fun and cuts both way. you have smart a lg os that do nothing but read headlines and if the word is perceived to be positive then they initial buy orders and if it's perceived negative they initial sell orders everybody said what really happened, and was the headline at all even that negative? i'm not sure that it was so, so negative, but what happens they kick it into high gear and they take advantage because the market is out of line from where it should be and look what happened they supported it right at 2415 and then they take it right back up again. >> i think the so-called smart a lg os are the new dumb money, what do you think? >> i disagree. if you look

as rick santelli was pointing out, pointing out yields moving lower but real the continued decline oflar is getting a lot of traders' attention. the dollar indexed peaked at 1.03 earlier this year we're now trading in the 94 range so a huge decline for the dollar against the major currencies rights now. as rick was pointing out, maybe we're seeing a bottom in the euro as it pertains to the dollars. goldman sachs, the drag for the dow, the biggest decliner on the industrial average today with the disappointing earnings, especially on its trading revenue for bonds and in commodities. on the other side of the trade though, netflix with the record gain in subscribers and not just other in the united states but overseas and that stock up sharply in today's trade now at 183, trading in all-time high territory bob pisani, we get ready for earnings tonight ibm, where expectations are not all that high but we've got two important components in the transports, united and csx. >> remember, ibm missed expectations, top and bottom line last quarter. they are trying to get in the higher growth segm

. >> bob, thank you for that let's dmek with rick santelli in chicago. busy morning, hey, rick. >> yes, busy morning lots of data points, a few more still to come. if we look at a two day, we're crawling back almost exactly to the area that rates dipped from right as the statement was read yesterday. but if you open the chart up to the end of may, so we see june and july, what's interesting is, for the most part, july is completely above june in terms of rates, of course june contained the low yield close of the year around 212. here's something fascinating, on the week, we're up four basis points on fives. we are up seven basis points on tens and we are up 11 basis points on 30 there's a curve steepening aspect to this let's look, tens minus twos, currently around 94. we've held the mid-70s you know, that is a big area, but maybe once again, take a perspective, open this chart up to three years, really jumps out at you whatever signal you think this curve has, there's a directional to why traders look at it and it certainly looks like it has bottomed no

. >> i like it >>> in the meantime, we'll get to "the santelli exchange.morning, rick. >> good morning r, carl this is the secret order of the trade, okay? no, it's not a technical analysis society i'm literally talking about the order of the trade, like which one comes first. and what up found with technical analysis is that it's actually easy to pick the spots markets are going to turn. what's way more difficult is picking the order in which it happens. for ten-year note yields, for example, and i have a group of friends that ride the train together and for decades we play these technical analysis games and 263 is the high yield close for the year back in 2014, 2015, that was a huge area. many of us thought we would see that first and then the big downdraft in yield second. it happened in reverse all-important areas on charts don't die, they just get delayed a bit. now, this is kind of a long-term chart in the euro versus the dollar, but we'll call it brand x. i did this fast and really just want to make a point, okay when you look at the chart and see t

. >> let's get to rick santelli in the meantime and check out the bond markets in chicago.ing, rick >> good morning, carl. lots going on. we'll start on this side of the pond wow, rates moved up a bit. but you can see we have a lot of ground to make uh, wbut we're still kind of above 230, 227 area open the chart up to december, let's pick that date for bunds it's the last time the bunds were this close to 60 basis points a lot of this has to do with a rollover issue yesterday, there was just 4 billion bunds for sale adding to a much more liquid, larger issue the roll popped rates a little bit. it's normal. but it's also normal to pay especially close attention to when these things happen, to see how the role affects the market. and sometimes, it pushes you in a technically significant area, as this has. now, let's look at our yield curve, because it sounds to me like the fed is going to be paying a whole lot more attention to it, as they do the trade-off between affecting the short end with rate hikes and potentially changing the balance sheet, which could be more of a curv

morgan from sandy spring trust is with us today steve from stewart frank sl a post nine and rick santelli shows up at the cme in chicago so, steve, i mean, what, you know, we're always looking for what motivates this market we're watching washington, where nothing's getting done earnings have been mixed to better, is that's what pushing the market higher here >> i think the major thing that we're looking at is that it's a less of a regulatory hurdle environment than we have seen in the last two presidential cycles, last two administrations. so when you have less head winds, you have bigger tail winds by proxy, that's why ceos, that's why corporations are a lot more positive, that's what's driving this market. and we don't see any to your point, you haven't seen any tax policy reform. you haven't seen health care you haven't seen an infrastructure bill. you haven't seen anything, but due to the fact in a you're going to see less regulatory environment, that's what's really kept this market moving higher in my humble opinion. >> rob, any names today you pick up on the weakness northern trus

joining us as we head to the close here, peter costa, mark lusceny and rick santelli at the cme in chicago peter, clearly, you've been waiting for a pullback this is a minor one here we've seen the markets struggle with volatility this week so far. >> first, let me say something, bill if you saw the video from hamburg, that was actually the costa family july 4th picnic. >> all right. >> and that was my family coming after me because i was short the market, but, no, you know what i think a lot of things that happened this morning. you had the eu saying that the kweezing is going to lighten up and, you know, some geopolitical issues, i think north korea is something that we have to keep an eye on, so i think, you know, traders are getting a little skittish right now and with the market being at all-time highs you're going to see these pullbacks, and pullbacks won't be five points and ten points. they will be 100 points, 120 points. >> we have the private sector jobs report this morning that came in a little disappointing, so we get the big jobs report tomorrow and there's some talk about how

somewhere out there on the new york stock exchange and jack bouroudjian playing the part of rick santelli, co-founder and xheef chist at universal economist. others have made the same comment that monetary policy is no longer a tailwind, is becoming a headwind and here we sit with a is hundred-point rally on the dow today and the stock market is near all-time highs. so is that not yet a headwind for equities in. >> the proof is not in the pudding yet for me yet they have raised interest rates three times since december and financial conditions have done nothing but ease the dollar has depreciated, the ten-year rate has been staying to its downtrend line going back 20 years, trading up the last couple of days but still trading below 2.3% and the equity market is raging at all-time highs. i don't see monetary policy. yellen said, always very god about telegraphing what they are going to do about months in advance and very open about that and so far hasn't done anything. the word we're starting to hear out of fed speak now is they are worried about asset bubbles. that's the excuse that they

exchange trader peter costa from empire executions is out there on the floor somewhere and rick santelli is in chicago at the cme peter, it -- do we still lay this at the feet of janet yellen, do you think, this rally that began after the testimony came out on wednesday before the house financial services committee and we haven't really looked back since. >> and it pains knee say it, but, yeah, i think we have to lay it at the feet of janet yellen and a lot of what has happened in the market over the last two years the fed has been guiding it and continue to guide it that's not really a bad thing. i think they have done a fairly good job i know people will disagree with me, but i think they have done a fairly good job of trying to manage this and going forward i think there will be some issues coming into september because, you know, some people will be calling for another rate hike. i'm not. i don't think the economy wants it, but i don't see in those hallowed walls in washington, d.c. and i don't make that decision, but, you know, i think that's what people are looking at and her getti

jeremy hill, steve grasso and rick santelli. >>> we have about 45 minutes to go with this dow hanging on to a 22-point gain today, and the dow has been outperforming of late the nasdaq coming off some weakness, still lower by a .21%. the russell the weakest again with a five-point decline. up next intel cfo bob swan is going to break down the chip-maker's latest earnings on a first on cnbc interview and tell us how his company is trying to fight back against amd. >>> president trump's chief strategist steve bannon reportedly wants to regulate google and facebook as utilities. coming up, we'll talk to the journalist who broke that story and find out whether there's a chance that mr. ban non-'s vision could become reality. >> we want to hear from you. reach out to the show and share your thoughts with us via twitter, facebook or e-mail. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide these days families want to be connected 24/7. that's why at comcast we're continuing to make our services more reliable than ever. like technology that can update itself. an advanced fiber-network infrus

today, joe terranova, stephanie link also with us, steve liesman, and from chicago, our own rick santelli let's begin with those comments today from jpmorgan boss, jamie dooild, te diamond, telling a gathering in europe, the unwind could catch the markets by surprise. mr. diamond saying, quote, we've never had qe like this before we've never had unwind like this before when that happens of size and substance, stit could be a litte more disruptive than people think. we act like we know exactly what's going to happen and we don't. steve liesman, i go to you first. what do you make of dimon's comments >> jamie's on the front lines there. he's going to be part of the process of unwinding the balance sheet. and i think his words of caution should be taken seriously. i think two things, though i think the fed has kind of preempted these concerns, if you look at how they're doing, balance sheet, they've sort of put it on auto pilot, but they have a switch where they can turn it out if things turn out badly. i think what the fed wants to see is wants to see the market behave in this process and n

wednesday is going to be fascinating to watch >> in the meantime, let's get to the cme group and the santellihange good morning again, rick >> good morning, carl. there's a real rates race going on anybody not paying attention is missing a huge dynamic that's affecting all markets. first of all, let's get this out of the way everybody should pretty much realize after all these years post crisis watching markets that equity markets and the fixed income markets globally are all copying each other they're all moving pretty much the same they don't have the same yields. they don't have the same interspread relationships necessarily. but they're all moving the same. if we consider to date dow up is a little less than 1%, yes, rotation, nasdaq is not doing all that w ft-se is up 1% as well the cac up is 1.5% the dax is up 1.25%, italian stock market on fire are there dynamicors economic underpinnings that strong? let's look at some some chartsl we look at an intraday of tens. we clicked off 135 let's look at the two-day boons. this is really important basically today, we came within a whisker, lite

report" starts at noon carl, see you back in 15 >>> let's go to the cme in the meantime to rick santelli>> good morning, carl. trade is an important issue. hold up different countries look at trade, that's where it is going to get interesting and there's always the notion of trying to talk your way into a better deal. how will all this turn out and affect markets i don't know but one thing i know is g20. my own form of g20-plus. what is it last week was an interesting week if you are watching the big thing on market, especially the sovereign fixed income markets any maturity you looked at moved up in yields last week let's go to the white boards the g20-plus is 20 basis points. definitive credit is the benchmark for the group. uk, france and spain just a week ago monday, the 26th, we look at that versus where the markets are today. it's pretty astounding really. the u.s., 2.13 to 2.33 the yeitalians up 24 spain up 18. this didn't really flat craft the 20-plus zone but the point is that i try to keep things simple we had an interesting guest on today that has seen a lot of trades, many be

rick santelli, for more reaction bring in steve liesman >> yeah, this is an interesting number, joe.way rick thought about it, right. which is that we talked about this for a long time a single number is very volatile but you average the two numbers and we're at the 2% number which is a pretty good balanced growth which is nice you had 3% on consumer -- sorry 2.8% on consumer spending. business investment up 5.2% with equipment up a strong 8.2% number housing investment was down after a very strong first quarter. not unexpected and then the government was up after being down the first quarter. and i believe inventory was a slight positive. one other thing is that we revised upward 2015, we had this bench mark revisions but revised down a little bit, 2016. so 2015 was stronger than we thought. 2016 weaker. overall, nothing here that tells me that this is anything but still a 2% economy though i will say that interesting question we can ask ourselves. this little bit of surge we've had in business investment is this part of the confidence that as a company the election of the president

back to you. >> speaking of which, thank you, rick santelli.re and we'll discuss more in just one second. twitter's analyst call is under way and julia boorstin joins us with some highlights. >> twitter shares are trading down on the fact that it didn't add any new users in the quarter. ceo jack dorsey on the call has been trying to shift focus to daily active usage, which grew 12% from the year earlier quarter. dorsey saying that those gains indicate changes are working >> we're shipping products faster than ever and this empowers us to build features that can enable strong future growth people are reporting significantly less abuse on twitter today than they were six months ago we take action on ten times the abuse of accounts daily compared to this time last year >> on the call just now, cfo and coo anthony noto also stressed the value of video on the platform, both for twitters' users as well as its advertisers. >> by taking the video and bringing it onto the platform that people are talking about and cure 8ing below that video a timeline o

pretty big move for the 10-year yield here again expecting june housing starts let's get to rick santellianding by to give us a lowdown on the numbers from the cme in chicago rick >> all right we're waiting june read on housing starts and permits and looking to see how much they've improved mortgage applications rose all right we're expecting a number around 1.16 million on starts we ended up with more. 1.215 million seasonally adjusted annualized units. that's up, i don't know, i'm ciphering maybe a little over 7% we did have a positive reversion, much better number 1.09 last time upgraded to 1.12. pretty good news there let's look at permits, what may high ahead up over 7%. close to 7.5%. 1.254 million seasonally adjusted annualized units besting expectations no revision on the 1.16. just about 1.17 last time. which gives you close to 7.5%. as i look up at the screen i see 227 basically unchanged on the day. basically hitting senior we settle at 2015 where we settle at 2016 was 244 so pretty much if you look at the settlements for the last couple years they proved ongoing importance wit