in their return to action after a 2 month hiatus scoring within the 1st 40 seconds throughout the santelli. the visitors doubled their lead minutes later thanks the raimi bins of my knees crossed then found marcus to raam who checked it in from close range. in the 2nd half after a foul when brill in below been hit by any got on the scoresheet himself. the conversion had a little help from kevin trapped by. frankfurt's andriy silva netted a consolation goal for the hosts with 10 minutes to go but it was too little too late. we're very happy very tired and it was a very very tiring day visit could see the last 15 minutes i don't even know if it looked like something over with was running around but we're happy we're happy to be back we're happy that people are home can see us play and we're happy that football is back the wind moves a lot about up to 3rd in the table following r.p. like 611 draw with freiburg earlier on saturday. as for frankfurt they remain in 13th place 5 points ahead of the relegation playoff spot. let's go a little deeper on all of this with ed mccambridge from our sport

the best or nothing. >>> let's get to rick santelli and a friday edition of the santelli exchange. >> happy friday, if there is such a thing thank you, carl. i would like to welcome my guest carlos gutierrez, former secretary of commerce under george w. bush, and if i was to go through his whole resume i would use my time up thank you for joining us today. >> good to see you. >> let's get right into it boy, i'll tell you what the largest exporter in the world is surrounded by snakes in a way, picking fights with australia, hong kong power grab turned many of the big economies that it does business with sort of against them and, of course, they changed some of the things that are ritualistic to the chinese at this point when they have their get together, they didn't create any growth targets and there's lots of stimulus in the system, talk half a trillion, is the largest exporter in trouble here, mr. secretary, in the grand scheme of things? >> yeah, there's no question that there's a lot of decoupling going on, not just the u.s., but japan put $2 billion in their stimulus plan to b

rick santelli. jim, i wanted to get to beyond meat with you.t's a year ago today we got the pricing. and today wells goes to underweight. they think economic conditions will forestall the wide adoption of plant-based meat. >> i disagree with that. i know also that mcdonald's thinks it's a hobby. i think there's a lot here i think it's also going to become an even safer alternative as we read about more and more meat packing operations that were written about in chicago, turn of the century. i think that this is not a sale. i think that this is here to stay plant-based is the way people like to -- younger people like t including people who are nonvegetarian. there is a food service business they are right, almost every food service company has been a disaster but i don't think the younger people will back away because of a wells downgrade. i think those people think it's a stagecoach >> the other name we didn't get to this morning was clorox, which i know you have tonight. >> yeah. look, clorox had 17% growth. one thing about clorox, let's face

we appreciate it rick santelli with the auction results of the 20-year for us. back to kim. we heard bill talking about how the market might be set up favoring value after the growth, couple what would your response be and why are you sticking with names like microsoft up 17% year to date >> sure. it's a simple sentence, right? success begets success investors are always trying to invest in a company that's going to grow and a lot of the companies that are in the value sector, that screen as a value, are really not in a shape to grow just say banking you know if a 20-year bond is yielding 1.6, that net interest mar general doesn't look really good to somebody who's making money off of that. you know because it's hard to do. so i think a lot of the industries that have been found in value stocks just really have some fundamental issues with growth and investors want their money to grow and so they put them in stocks where they see growth has been and where there's a runway for them to grow and i think that really is a simple answer. >> sure. you also like micron, coca-cola an

together we can help save the restaurants we love. >>> let'sget to rick santelli with a special guest rick. >> hi, carl. yes, definitely a special guest on a special day in would like d lazear, former chair of the council of economic advisors under george wyo. for joining m morning. >> good to see you, rick. >> listen, i want to know what you think of the number? it shouldn't be surprising, doesn't make it less shocking but i want you to pay close attention to the big jump that we saw in average hourly earnings month over month and year over year. >> absolutely. let's start with the basic number, the 14.5% unemployment rate that's obviously a staggering number it tells us that there's an enormous amount of pain out there. unfortunately there's more pain than is indicated by that number as you know, rick, those numbers are are collected on about the 12th of the month. since the 12th of the month there's been a number of unemployed workers that have come in through the initial claims we have seen that. right now we probably have about 40 million workers unemployed which maps into an une

let's go out to the bond market now and check in with rick santelli. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler. big feature today of course was a very lackluster, if not below average five-year note option. i gave it a "d." as one person pointed out, it's not a wad thing that investors are looking elsewhere to put their money. looks like equities is the game of choice these days. yield curve, short maturity is unchanged. long end, moving down about three basis points, you see the flattening going on there. but the big story continues to be in europe. look at the italian ten year. in six weeks it's gone from over 215 on yield to around 1.5%. that's a big move when the you put it on taich boop of a boom t yo, you can see how it's overperformed. and finally, the two day dollar index, close the at six-week low, it's only having a small bounce today. i'm anxious to see what steve sees in that beige book. kelly, back to you. >> rick santelli, we're still waiting for steve liesman to thread through this beige book report. meantime, let's go to diane, not for reaction as we had anticipated to the beige

santelli, thank you very much. and as we've been reporting all day, stocks have been falling after fed chair powell's warning of, quote, significant downside risk, as america moves towards reopening the economy. so should investors brace now for more of that pain to be reflected in the markets, as we move into the summer months? so let's ask david speaka, president of guidestone capital management and jim mcdonald, chief investment strategist at northern trust gentlemen, welcome to both of you. glad to have you both here yesterday, it felt like it was epidemiologists and doctors ringing the caution bell today, it sounds like jerome powell do you disagree? let me start with you, david speaka, that the markets may be a little tippy >> absolutely, tyler i think the markets have gotten well ahead of themselves i think investors are going to have to start to realize that this rally has been based on nothing more than fed stimulus and momentum the prospects for a v-shaped recovery are thin-to-none, and right now, we have

and the santelli exchange. good morning, carl. i like to welcome jim grant. jim, thank you for joining me today. let's get right into it, the fed's balance sheet a little under $6 trillion, the ebd, their balance sheet just under $6 trillion, if you look at a chart of both on top of any equity, balance sheets go up, stocks go up, balance sheets go down, stocks go down your thoughts, jim >> the rate of growth in these things is nothing less than astou astounding if you take the past three months of the federal reserve's balance sheet and analyze it, it's 606%. money supply is up an exexcess of 20% these are like so many figures and facts nowadays one had not previously seen or imagined. so what does it mean the future, as usual, is keeping its council but we can observe the following, we can observe there are almost $12 trillion worth of bonds priced to yield less than nothing. we can observe the commodities, at their relative lowest value compared to stocks since 1970 and equities are priced at the highest forw

santelli, thank you very much still ahead, gold mining stocks taking a hit today, but as stocks have we bounded from the march lows, the group, as a whole, is up more than 100%. we'll take a look at what is behind that particular move. >>> plus, as the future of sports hangs in the balance, especially for college athletes, the big ten commissioner, kevin warren, will be here to tell us if he expects college football to kick off this fall and if so, when and under what mu mciumans. chore "power lunch" right after this >>> welcome back, everybody. let's go to sue herrera right now for an update on the coronavirus. sue? >> thank you very much, ty good afternoon, everyone new jersey's governor phil murphy says he is extending his state's public health emergency by another 30 days he says it is needed to keep the state on a war footing in its fight against the pandemic >>> in southern california, some beaches that had been closed because of overcrowding are reopening with new restrictions. in laguna beach, hours are limited to 6 through 10 a.m. visitors can walk, run, swim, and surf, but

so we like the financials the most >> chris zacarelli, thank you both let's turn to rick santelli. we had that terrible auction of five-year treasury notes yesterday followed by a auction of seven-year notes today. rick, how did the auction go off? >> it wasn't so bad. it wasn't as bad as yesterday's five, but a bit below average. i gave it a c-minus. this is the last 127 billion in supply it's seven-year, $38 billion the yield, it's a dutch auction, 0 0.553. it is not the lowest auction yield ever that was last auction, when it was 0.525. it's still the largest at $38 billion. why it was at a c-minus, it was trading at 54.5. if you look at the bid to cover, it was better than expected. so that's a little above average, as indirects were at 36.6 dealers took dplt ten-auction average. so c minus there's been a tell the last couple of days look at the dollar index whether it's an intraday or the fact it's at two-month lows, both intraday and on a closing basis, going back to march 27th. it's down two-thirds of a cent and the long maturities have the highest yield in ten weeks put all

. >>> let's get to rick santelli with ism on the way.. >> reporter: yes, ism on the way. quickly we had the april final reads on the markets service pmi went from a preliminary of 27 to time read of 26.7, the composite went from 27.4 preliminary read to 27. these are really young indices only several years old but those are the lowest levels on record and if we look at what's going on with interest rates the curve on the long end is starting to act a little alive the fed is buying less with regard to qe look at the ten years for two weeks, 67 basis points, we're knocking on the door if we get through there look for rates to go higher. the 30-year is leading the curve and to that end, let's look at the note over bonds spread, if you look at it just since april 22nd, you can see it's been inching up, it's now 66 basis points and you zoom wider, that's the widest they've been in three years, so what we want to pay attention to is the flattening starts with the long -- short end moving to the long end steepening is moving from the longest ma

nasdaq lagging those two but still up quite a bit, nearly 2.5% let's get to rick santelli in chicago.ick >> thanks, jon. i would like to welcome my guest, johnny fine from goldman. he's my corporate high yield guy. johnny, welcome to the show and let's get right in to it you know, before the fed decided they were going to backstop corporates, high yields, especially under the microscope, though they haven't done much yet, would you have predicted the inshoo wans bonanza and investor confidence to share in that supply? >> of course not it's clear it ignited a desire really to first of all stockpile liquidity. that was companies really repairing their balance sheets it's now created a financing opportunity that is attractive when you think about the context of history we're at the best in a decade for single a and double a rated corporate credit in 10 and 30 years and the second best in triple b credit. we're now shifting the corporate mentality from repairing the balance sheet to preparing the balance sheet for the remainder of 2020 and beyond >> okay. when you say preparing the balanc

let's get to rick santelli and get your thoughts on this this morning. >> i find it all very fascinating. starting with the last sound bite, he talked about how right now we have to prioritize differently than when we get on the other side of the coronavirus. the problem is that makes good sound bytes, dealing with conservative issues regarding finance, how the fed's balance sheet and these tools were put back in the toolbox for storage, just never occurred in full force after the last crisis. we barely contained squee ed qug quantitative easing. this hole will be much deeper for obvious reasons. the notion that when it's all said and done that the fed will put these tools away, it seems to me the more often they use them the more often they get used, which leads me to the most important point of the day, negative rates the chairman unlike me is measured and nonemotional, doesn't get super passionate which is probably the way you want your fed chief. i thought he could have been much more intense on how he dealt with negative interest rates. to be sure, if you looked at twos, they moved

rick santelli joining us with the data the other big news is the commerce department working to isolate.s. tech supply even further. it's taken the wind out of the sails of chip stocks we are joined with more. >>> hey, carl. a hawkish communist paper is quoting government sources tonight as saying that china is ready to launch countermeasures against the u.s. if the trump administration does go ahead with that plan and block the sale of u.s. chips from global suppliers to the chinese tech giant huawei the commerce department said it was going to tweak an export rule that would prevent the sale and shipment of those chips to huawei, and the editor in chief at the global times who is quite well-connected and known to be with government officials tweeted the new measures could include activating china's so-called unreliable entity list, restricting or investigating u.s. companies, and suspending the purchase of boeing airplanes and tonight, the paper added that the investigations would be endless, quote, like swords hanging over their heads now, despite those threats, the rest of the state

there was limited appetite for $2.25 billion in bonds that united was essentially offering rick santelliaid yesterday afternoon that it didn't look like there would be a whole on the of appetite and united his pulled that offering and the significance of this is that there's been so much debt that has been brought to the market by the airline industry just since march, well over $24 billion. you have to wonder if the debt market is saying we've got enough for now. >> phil, thank you phil lebeau with the latest on united airlines. mike, i'll go back to you. what do you, quickly, it sounds like it's an airline-specific issue. >> it is an airline-specific issue and there will be businesses that will be able to hit the reset button and i'm not sure that that necessarily applies to the airlines. there has to be some evidence that there will basically be a return for levels of air travel that's significantly higher and each if it increased dramatically, we've all seen the statistics to levels that haven't been seen since the 19 notice, and of cours we're dealing with infrastructure in a very c

the battle cry over the bailouts, rick santelli from the floor of the stock exchange. >> this is americaortgage that has an extra bathroom and can't pay their bills. raise their hand. how about we all -- president obama, are you listening? >> the same energy's out tre

let's get to santelli. >> yes this is a march final on inventories.leased mid month at minus 1% they're revised to down .8% that's the weakest since september of 2011. trade sales, wholesale trade sales, this number is fresh. no mid month read. minus 5 .2 % and that is the second worst read ever. the worst read was minus 8.7 in november of 2008 the series started in 1992 we're not seeing a huge market movement sur face it to say a lot of traders are paying very close attention to the very low rates on two-year notes and the fact that deferred fed fund contracts are implying negative overnight rates from the fed sara, back to you. >> rick, thank you let's hit the big story of the morning. a record 20.5 million jobs lost in the month of april. unemployment rates soaring to levels we haven't seen since the great depression steve liesman joins us with a closer look. now that you've had time to dig into the report, what are the big take aways >>. >> you can't stop shaking your head at the report the numbers speak for themselves as far as the stark nature o

let's get to rick santelli >> we're expecting our main read on chicago pmi last week -- excuse me, lastonth, 35.4, the weakest since '09. this one lower than that 32.3 we are expecting the number higher this is definitely nothing good to look at when was the last time we were at these levels? you have to go back to march of '09. we're covering that whole thing. to give you context, 20.7 from june of '80 was the all-time low on the series going back to 1967 but we'll continue to watch the pmis and ultimately university of michigan coming up to see if we turned the corner carl, jim, david, back to you. >> rick, we'll see you in a few moments. let's get over to meg tirrell who has a special guest. good morning, meg. >> good morning, carl. the world's largest cancer research conference kicks off today, and this year it is virtual. we're joined by bristol-myers squibb ceo, giovanni caforio thank you for being with us. it's a different format for the meeting this year. all of the information just being posted online. help us sort through, from your perspective, what is the most important upda

dot go anywhere, "squawk on the street" continues in just two minutes. >>> let's get to rick santellid the exchange, hey, rick. >> good morning. and thank you, carl. i'd like to welcome professo ken rogoff, thank you for joining me, these are trying times, of course. >> indeed, thank you for having me >> listen, today's a big day we reintroducing after decades of absence a 20-year bond but it underscores the notion of debt last thursday, the fed's balance sheet was approaching $7 trillion, i believe the exact amount was 6. 3 trillion on their balance sheet. and we learned when we had treasury secretary steve mnuchin on, the cares act, only 8 to 9% has been spent and we're hearing for the need for more. as a man and a great economist who's written much about debt, even with the coronavirus issues are we ahead of ourselves? are we over the skis on debt >> we're only two months into this, and it's probably going to get a lot worse. i think we have to support americans, we have to support the economy. i don't know where this is going. but we're down 25 or 30%, we're hoping we're coming ba

the battle cry over the bailouts, rick santelli from the floor of the stock exchange. >> this is america, how many of you people want to pay for your neighbor's mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can't pay their bills. raise their hand. how about we all -- president obama, are you listening? >> the same energy's out there today. you can feel it. here's dave portnoy, bar stool sports not a political guy putting into words the way you feel. >> when did this become flatten the curve, flatten the curve, flatten the curve to we have to find a cure or everyone's going to die. like fauci, seems like a nice enough dude. no agenda. looks like he could be maybe the grand father in wedding crashers. we reopen the country too quick, everybody is dead. people who have jobs to put food on their table to have a happy living, they are going to wake up whenever this thing ends, whenever the mayors say you can go back to work? work for what? your company is going to be out of business. the economy is [ bleep ]. there's going to be no jobs. there's risk. we're americans. you have to take risk. if peop

the battle cry over the bailouts, rick santelli from the floor of the stock exchange. >> this is america of you people want to pay for your neighbor's mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can't pay their bills. raise their hand. how about we all -- president obama, are you listening? >> the same energy's out there today. you can feel it.

let's get to rick santelli who has a special guest for us this morning as well. >> thank you, david.welcome carlos gi gutierrez, former secretary of commerce under president bush. thank you for joining me today >> thank you thank you for having me, rick. >> all right put on your commerce secretary hat here so we had initial jobless claims today a whisker under 3.2 million. if you look at all the numbers going back to the 20th of march, cumulative running totals, 33.5 million claims running 22.65 millions how do you look at the numbers acknowledging the cessation? >> it's a horrifying number, obviously, rick. what concerns me is we look at the total number, and the expectation, of course, is that those jobs will come back. my concern is that not all of those jobs will come back. some restaurants are open at half capacity. hotels will not be at full occupancy. you know, the economy will not be running at 100% for quite a while. so we should expect some of the jobs regrettably, to go away so the idea that we would go back to a 3.5% unemployment rate, i don't believe t real -- it's reali

let's get to rick santelli rick >> carl, we're going to have a date with history on both these numbers read on factory orders, down 10.3. this series started in march of '56. the lowest ever month over month negative change was august of 2014 at minus 9.7. we beat that minus 10.3 if we take x transportation, that's down 3 .7 durable dpoods orders, they started in february of '92 in their current rendition. the smallest number, month over month was minus 14.4 we beat that minus 14.7, another date with history. and, of course, we look at the internals, extransportation down.4 capital orders nondefense proxy for capital spending down .1 my guess is that's going to get worse as time goes by. these are march finals it also means that minus 14.4 gets removed that was a mid march it gets replaced with minus 14.7 and if we look at orders, it switched to shipments, shipments are down .2. my guess that also is going to fair worse over time both the number series are the biggest month over month negative change we've ever seen. the response in the marketplace, counterintuitive ten-year note yield

> jim, not going to put you on the spot on madison square garden or the knicks but bring in rick santelli with i think the results of the 5-year auction. rick >> i gave the auction a "d" as in dog below average 45 billion, 5-year notes a record amount. the yield at the dutch auction .334, the lowest yield ever at a dutch auction and the reason auction didn't go well right off the bat trading 32 basis points and when issued market so higher yield, lower price on the final numbers and all the internals are weak 2.28 bid to cover. weakest since july of 2019 the indirects of 57.3 below average. directs 10.8 below average dealers take a large 31.8 compared to 10-year auction of 36% and yesterday's 2-year went average. today below average. tomorrow the 7-year and interested to see how the longest maturity will fare but at this point in time with so much debt we have to monitor the demand especially now that the ecb and the european union is throwing more supply into the marketplace. kelly, back to you. >> i can't remember the last time you gave a "d" to an auction. that's surprising. >> yes, it

on friday had a lot of people concerned about that just to pivot for a second, guys bring in rick santelli we have 3-year notes go up for auction. rick, what can you tell us >> demand i gave as a charlie minus, a smidge below average. remember, this is 42 billion of 3-year notes the biggest amount ever auctioned. the rest of the auction series 10s and 30s is a package, the biggest ever go through it. the yield .23. lowest yield in an auction for the 3-year note ever we go through all the pricing and easy on this one where it priced in relation to where the market was and issued is spot on everything else just a little bit below average. so we gave it a c-minus but that is nothing to worry about. we are moving a lot of paper and even though demand isn't stellar the longer maturities probably more interesting back to you. >> all right so lowest yield ever and a demand of c-minus. thank you, sir terry, i think that's the second time we have had to sit through the auction results. you get the rest of the time here your fund all asset fund down 3% this year and the s&p down 10% right now. how d

. >> all right rick, we'll see you later on, rick santelli, thank you very much >>> good morning welcome to "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan coming live with separate locations some cross currents on the final trading day before a long weekend. dow down 165 the reopening continues in areas like orlando there's more people flying for the first time no state has a 5% daily case load growth. on the other hand, these china headlines overnight, the national people's congress, the possibility china might make efforts to im pose security measures on hong kong has some worried especially in asia today. >> my goodness, that's despite the fact that we did actually get some -- we started with vaccine data driving the markets. look at the rally on monday to start the week off of the moderna news you had those positive vaccine comments from dr. fauci saying the data looked promising, but it's being overshadowed by everything playing out in china, whether it's the situation with hong kong and what is essentially being seen as something of a power grab through a national securit

from a fed official it's not something off the table completely and if i'm remembering, it was rick santelliheated debate with steve liesman was arguing, yes, the door was not shut today, not clamped tight, is what he said and i agree with him and i think a lot of people expected it to be more clamped tight and it wasn't. so this was a move away from what i thought would have been an outright denial of, this is not happening, forever ever. using the word for now is very tricky, or very interesting. >> diane, the other thing here is this is a fed that we've heard them pivot before. even when they've declared across the board, you know, like back in the end of 2018, you know, that they were going to continue to keep raising the fed funds rate when they, in fact, turned around and cut rates. it seemed preposterous the president was calling for it and then it happened we're used to about-faces already. do you think negative rates something that should be on the table and what would that achieve? >> i don't think it should be on the table. and i actually think powell was pretty clear about how un

let's get to the cme group in chicago and rick santelli. >> thanks. i'd like to welcome richard fisher, former dallas federal reserve bank president and ceo was that a ringing nonendorsement in your opinion in that sound bite >> yes, it was i don't think anybody -- it's not just chairman powell it's everybody on the f1c is clearly stated they realized there's more damage done by negative interest rates than positive impact. rick, i appreciate you putting up that picture of me because if you could see me right now i look like bernie sanders gone wrong. >> i have to push back just a little bit i agree. after listening to that, let's let the markets speak. and what i did was i went back and looked at several fed fund futures contracts from november, december of this year and distant months what i noticed is, today's low, if he really pushed hard on negative rates the contracts should trend a bit lower the lows today are no lower than they've been yesterday or the day before that tells me he might have pushed back but he certainly didn't remove or accentu

buying is still yet to begin actually, as i ask about that, let's pause for a moment to bring in rick santelli with an auction of 2-year treasury notes. >> yeah. you know, once again, a very solid auction. not too out of the ordinary but c-plus is the grade. 44 billion in 2-year notes kicking off 127 billion in supply the yield at the dutch auction .178 and we had above average bid to cover at 2.68. indirects at 53.1 was just 3% higher than normal only real lacking area is direct bidders at 14.8. dealers take 32.1% roughly 10 auction average and 5s and 7s to follow. solid new home sales today and confidence held up c-plus auction isn't bad short maturities are boring for investors. 5s and 7s should get more interesting, kelly back to you. >> thank you, sir. janelle, back to you quite simply, why municipal bonds? >> i think when we look at the facilities and what's been announced and not been implemented we have not seen municipal facilities implemented and probably more room to go in terms of fiscal support and looking across markets, risk of defaults, circles of default rates and go down to t

michael, stay right there and turn to you to bring in rick santelli we have the results of the 10-year treasury notes rick, what can you tell us >> it was a barn burner. so let's go through it 32 billion not a reopening. the yield at the auction .70 lower yield, higher price. below where the one issue market trading. straight up 1:00 eastern and the internals are solid. 2.69 bid to cover. best since mid-2016. 66.1 on indirects. 13.3 on directs. just shy of the 10 auction average. dealers take 20.5. that is really a small amount compared to 27% 10 auction average. a really solid auction on the long maturity unlike yesterday's 3-year tomorrow year's 30-year i suspect similar. this is the lowest yield ever at an auction for 10s and the biggest size 10-year auction ever, as well, kelly. >> wow the lowest yield ever. the most ever auctioned and yet you gave it -- so much demand you give it a "a." >> "a" for apple it was a solid auction. >> wow michael, talk about the implications for the market and the fact we are talking about negative rates maybe lays inplao it what is your reaction? >> y

for now, for more market reaction in the bond market, let's get to rick santelli with the day's update hi, rick >> hi, tyler and i'm going to let steve have all the specific headlines but suffice it to say, a lot has changed since the last fed meeting. and the biggest effects in the treasury markets that i have witnessed so far today are not coming in right this second. they came in, well, about an hour ago look at an intraday of twos, tens, 30s, we'll roll those charts because around 10:00 eastern, that's when 20-years priced, it was a very good auction. even though we don't have any history on it. it hasn't been around until "back to the future's" movie first run, we can look at the last ten-year and 30-year auctions and blend those results, and what really jumped out at me, you had over two and a half times over subscription to this 20-year. $20 billion over $50 billion was thrown in to buy that $20 billion and that is a solid demand scenario. finally, those yields got down so they were 138 and 30, 66 in 10s. you can see they've come back just a little bit. and finally, the dollar i

santelli wants to buy a tesla now.f a -- you turned around and wanted to buy a tesla. you liked the company after you drove a tesla? >> yes what do you think of what elon musk -- >> i liked driving in it, my wife liked it, my daughter liked it my friend who was a former cfo said they could raise $2 million in a heartbeat stock was 270. i came in. i can't fight the tide i think too good my wife is a huge car person, gigantic she said this is it, jim if there was ever a stock you should recommend -- and i finally decided, that's right. i looked at the financials, i realized they don't have to advertise. people love it and elon is a genius people say he's willing to put his workers in harm's way. i think if you go in and inspect his plants, if they're doing things in harm's way, change them i think this man's a genius. i think he makes great cars, and i think he should be able to do this car secretary mnuchin said the same thing yesterday. i hope it works out. this guy is the best we have in terms of manufacturing i'm tir

. >> let's get to rick santelli as well, who brought us those -- another tough print on jobless claims hey, rick. >> hi, carl. indeed, while we're waiting for the market services and manufacturing pmis, we can look at a intra day of tens the data this morning wasn't shocking, and it wasn't hugely surprising, but it was still not very good when we look at initial claims 2.438 million continuing claims, over 25 million. you can see an intraday chartd of tens, the way the market was a slow burn, you saw it after the market was released, granted, the move wasn't big, but if you open up to march, none of the moves have been big. the long end is consolidating. it's really tight. now, we have market coming out, the pmis these are may preliminaries. if you look at the manufacturing component, it's 39.8, and that's versus 36.1, which was the all-time low, and if we go to services, 36.9, and that's versus 26.7, which was an all-time low and finally, the composite at 36.4 so this series has only been around since 2017, but you get an idea. like much of the data, it's not good, but it has improved

thanks bob's point about the relation trade has everybody watching back-end rates let's get to rick santelli hello, carl whether it's reinflation or reinflating the equity markets, we do see rates starting to perk up just a bit. it's mostly long maturitmaturits two-year, up 16 basis points, higher than friday's close because it did close towards the higher end of the range. ten-year notes, up four basis points let's look at a chart starting around april 1st the reason this is important -- stocks are flirting with some midpoints here that are significant. if you look at where stocks were before the big coronavirus break in march, where the lows were, you know, there's 24,000 plus in the dow, hovering near midpoint. the same could be true for the highs in the fixed income space as stocks do make these bounces. so for april, it was 77 basis points was the high yield close on tens. at 68, you can see that's the immediate area traders will be looking at for resistance. if you go back to march where we had the full effects of the coronavirus on the economy and rates, you'll see that after the init

the ten-year is back to 74 basis points let's get to santelli. >> yes carl, you zoomed in on it.t's look at the yield curve starting with the shorter mat e maturi maturity a two-week of two years that shows us we popped up and traded 1 yesterd 18 yesterday, the day before, two-years are pretty much going to stay glued to the wall. maybe get up a little bit. it's not out of the realm of possibility to see squeezes and ceos popping seeing a two-year note sell off. paired so closely with the fed's overnight rate, 0 to 25, it's anchored down. if you go to the further end of the curve that carl was referring to, a three-day, yes, 74 basis points keeps showing up here it's an important resistance area we're now hovering at basically a five-week high yield close if you look at a mid-april chart of ten-year, if it clears this zone, most likely we'll be toying with the hugely psychological level of 1%. and when you really think about what is going on with jay powell and mnuchin at the top of the hour, going to be speaking in front of the senate, question and answer, there's going to be so

thanks, rick santelli. a quick break as the dow is coming off the first weekly gain in three led my intel i love these fries. you know, the chef here trained in france. mmm, it shows! so good. oh hey, did you say you needed help with investing? because i know someone who's really great. and you trust him? totally. yeah. we went to school together. i'll check him out on investor.gov. so, what'll it be? i'll just have the burger. before you invest, get the full report. check out an investment professional's background for free on investor.gov. before you invest, investor.gov. find a stock basedtech. on your interests for free on investor.gov. or what's trending. get real-time insights in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions. fidelity. >>> retail at the center of the market weakness this morning under armor down 10% as sales sell 23. pvh and others the nasdaq is struggling to go green. we're back in just a moment. >>> let's get to jim and stop tradin

we don't become brazil, which is increasingly a topic of discussion, too let's check in with rick santellirought us all the data this morning. not much of it good. hey, rick. >> well, not much of it was good, but the market thinks otherwise. look at intra day of tens. yields moved up a bit. is the sovereign data the safest it's where the people go, and they seem to be leaving. they look to be closing at a ten-week high today. i think a lot of the people globally that were buying some of these sovereigns have moved into the equity markets because it's an unloved space but you still can cash a check it's been long since mid-march if you look at ten-year in particular on the french side, this is really revealing look at the ten-year, this is a month to date chart. there's been two sessions all of may so far that have closed above zero, and by above zero, one was.004, and one was .002. we want to watch because they're going to be throwing $2 trillion into the system. my guess is much like many global markets, they're going to take off and rates are going to start to move up again hint, hint, t

. >>> we'll get some data at the top of the hour, but first we check in with rick santelli. >> marketsn the move not everybody was closed yesterday, some of these markets had some big moves look at ten-year bunds, the highest credit instrument sovereign in europe. hovering just under 40 basis points it's up from minus 48, and indeed you can see this chart we're close to the highest yields in a month. now, if we look at an intraday of ten-year being closed yesterday, certainly we're up four basis points, but a month to date chart reveals that we need to get through here even though we swung up a bit three quarters of a percent is resistance and everybody continues to look at this 1% mark, both big psychological barriers maybe higher rates are not everybody's cup of tea, but at this point in time as you look at that chart it should dawn on many thatlow interest rates have become associated with negatives and rising rates with a solid equity market is the place to be in terms of foreign exchange today, huge moves if you look at the dollar versus the yuan, the dollar is the strongest. the

. >> maybe we can cover that another time let's get to rick santelli on what is a busy morning for himgood morning, rick >> i was enjoying this i didn't really buy anything big in march but i want to hear more if we look at cpi, the headline number goes back to 1947 but core, the concept of core came ten years later, 1957 down 0.4 today on core think about it, x food and energy you would think energy is it x food and energy down 0.4 we never had a core number that small since 1957 it is enlightening treasuries didn't pay a lot of attention. maybe because the treasury keeps buying so many, though they're buying less and less as you look at chart for two weeks, there's an upward trajectory to ten-year note yields as we go from the 50s 60s to the 60s and 70s it's tame. curve is around 50, 51 basis points tens to twos. if we look at a one month of tens, we have closed one-month highs yesterday, 71 basis points, you can see it's rising. what we really want to see at some point is a test of 1%, 1.25%, somewhere in that area, where it started to get messy when rates started to come down. now,

as sarah said, lower 0.6% but off the sessions low mike santelli is tracking a volatile day for the market. joining us to discuss big money being spent in the race for a vaccine are chris meekins from raymond james and meg terrell as always mike, let's start with you. >> yes s&p 500 pausing right below levels everybody is walking, 3,000 on the upside, right around the 200-day average look at a one-year chart of the s&p, we spent most of last summer in this relatively narrow defined range between 2,800 and a little over 3,000. so it is familiar territory. i don't think necessarily it means market stops in its tracks here often we kind of over shoot some of the widely watched levels once they get close by also, there's a lot of action below the surface. today is another day when you have some of the big cap winners backing off. banks also lower, but value and the average stock are outperforming. take a look at our one-month basis, the high data etfs, the most aggressive stocks in s&p, well outperforming the regular index as well as the low volatility version it shows a risk-seeking tone in t

rick santelli is standing by with that number rick >> yes initial jobless claims coming in at 3,169,000re looking right in the zip code of 3 million. 3,169,000. and if you look at continuing claims, they moved from 17,992,000 up to 22,647,000. and for some context, continuing initial claims are running high speed to the high water mark 6,867,000. nonpharmproductivity, minus 2.5. that is the worst since december also for some context, this series started right after world war ii, 1947 the low water mark is minus 11.7 on productivity and that was in the year it was introduced, 1947 we're a long way away from that. unit labor costs moved from .9 to 4.8 that makes sense as well interest rates hovering right below 70 basis points. 69 and change on a ten-year note high water mark interday right around 74 basis points a one-month high yield on an inter-day basis. coming out of the woodwork, mortgage backed securities, investment grade is just absolutely on fire some of the high yield, it's been a record pace it has maybe moderated just a bit. treasuries, second quarter based on refunding infor

. >>> news from the treasury department right now rick santelli joins us with the big headlines.eporter: it's like back to future, joe. 20 year, what was very popular back in the '80s are bringing it back bringing 20 billion of the 20 years back and if you look at the may refunding announcement, joe, it's all about size, size, size it's one of the biggest on record if you just look at how many tens, 30s, threes will be auctioning off from the first of the may refundings, 96 billion that's by far the biggest we had in that 20 year. then you think about the second quarter in general second quarter refunding when you put it all together will probably be in the 330 billion camp versus 240 billion in q1. roughly 35, 36, 37% more that's really the story here it's about supply. it's about size. the yield curve steepening, tens have broken out a little bit to the upside in yield and all this is occurring not only because we've expected this additional size but of course we have to trade it, hedge it, that will put pressure on the long end when you consider march back securities have been

meantime, we're seconds away from jobless claims as well as revive's look at gdp we'll get to rick santelliding by at the me. rick, the numbers, sir. >> reporter: andrew, 2,123,000 for initial claims, so 2.123 million. last week stands unrevised at 2 point 1438 million the high water mark was 6.87 march 28th less than 1/3. still a big, horrible number but the economy is reopening the worst numbers most likely are behind us. continuing claims, 21.052 million and that follows 25.073 which was the high water mark. that was the week of may 8th this is the week of may 16th often continuing claims. always a week in arrears now i'm seeing a subtle revision on the continuing claims that move down under 25 million to 24.912 on initial claims it moves up a bit from 2.43 to 2.44 million. that's last week, of course. now let's go to durable goods. durable goods expected down, came in at 17.2% do keep in mind this started at 1992 and the worst level was august 2014 at minus 18.8. we have not hit that yet thattest a bright spot if there aren't any bright spots to be had. this is of course a preliminary n