and mike santoli said something pretty smart or perceptive when he was on just a minute ago. he said the first thing you have got to do is pick the right sectors. he mentioned a couple of them. but materials, industrials, they are performing well today. they are going to perform well if we have an ongoing bull market, which i still think we are going to have. and then i would also add consumer discretion father and technology those are economically sensitive sectors and the types of sectors that perform well. the first thing you have got to do is get the sector right those are the four sectors i would focus on then the next thing you have to do is enhance your returns by having a good dividend yield a. good dividend yields in those sectors is always attainable there is a combination that you can do you can go beyond that by working with private equity if your investment adviser can steer you in the right direction towards real estate. that's a little bit beyond what i am talking about what i am talking about, sectors right, dividends, that's the way to do it. >> you are like

the big stories in this final hour, mike santoli tracking the market action. meg tirrell with the latest on the vaccines mike, respectable follow through today. >> absolutely. more than one half of a percent upside after yesterday's big surge. has climbed, the s&p 500, above the 50-day average stopping yesterday. the next thing to look for is one month ago september 15th in the 4480 range this market hustles and symmetrical with the low early last week and have stair stepped up from there and can't guarantee an all clear but a lot of the things to want to see lining up to say that you got a pretty plausible seasonable low and they are getting into place and the market never really did let go of the cyclical bias. look at the chart of things geared to rae covering economy and slowdown trades. this is consumer discretionary all equal weighted no two stocks in a sector dominate as you can see, good separation all year now mostly sideways for the cyclicals and nosing above that consumer discretionary it of can get to a new high and the s&p financials today getting

mike santoli is tracking the market action. mike, let's start with you in the broader markets. a nice day of gains again for the s&p and the dow, at least. >> further measured progress, any upside followthrough sort of reinforces this idea that there was a pretty decent seasonal shakeout that we got that being said, sort of upward drift, i would say, as opposed to a real forceful move. we have seen a pretty significant rush higher though in the last 10 or 12 trading days, up more than 6% in the s&p 500. some satisfy the short-term indicators starting to look a little bit overbought. when you've gotten these pullbacks and then the rebounds, usually there's a little bit of revisiting where you came from before that. so before too long, typically you have to kind of settle back a little bit from some level and see if it was for real so you don't always get back to the old highs, but it's something to keep in mind just the regular rhythm so if you back off from here, it doesn't necessarily mean that it was not necessarily a decent low that we got 10 or 12 days ago. take a look at t

we'll talk with the ceo of ftx >>> first mike santoli is tracking the market action meg tirrell to talk about merck and, mike, let's start with you. healthy looking intraday chart. >> some pressure coming off after the weak close yesterday i think that the merck news this morning taken as a positive. as well as we got this extra leg higher once we saw the reports that president biden heading to capitol hill maybe so that people didn't get too negative that's just kind of conjecture and the first day of a new quarter is positive in recent quarters so we are seeing the effects. this is where we were midday yesterday and did just tack yesterday afternoon's or morning. the highs of the every day this week around 36, 4380 a little bit above here. trying to kind of gather itself here the next step down are the mid-july lows. like 4250. that's the tactical technical picture. market in general has a reset here been talking for a while about under the surface weakness here's the russell 1000. going sideways did nothing going back to april and sort of below where we hit in early june whereas the

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments and today charlie is with us, as well. session lows down .6% on the dow. s&p down .5. nasdaq down point 4% from a tentative bounce day to a nervous pause about this recent rebound. >> that's the pattern where rallies suspect. stopped at the levels that you might expect them to as a purely technical bounce i get why people are apprehensive we have market moving stuff coming cpi number matters in this context of the energy surge which seems more of a shortage issue than a demand issue and a restraint on growth than emerging growth and makes sense. we don't have a quorum without the bond market trading and waffling in this range >> charlie, it is nice to have you here again with us do you feel that there's apprehension in the market or waiting for a catalyst and the earnings reports starting with banks here this week >> a little of both. i agree with mike but i'd say there is a demand explanation for the strength in energy seeing the different stocks do okay today the inflation sensitive names are fine energy, oil is over $80

. >> let's focus on the big stories at this hour mike santoli tracking the market action and steve liesman with the fed's new move mike, what are you watching in the market >> index is pausing at the old highs. from september 2 really some strength in the larger nasdaq stocks keeping that index green and the majority of stocks on the s&p and the new york stock exchange are down on the day but you see this formation still looks pretty encouraging could get a pullback to that level and sets up nicely to give a little bit back of this 13 trading days up. running hot. a couple indicators i look at resemble early july. some of the sentiment measures call back to that. so that's something to keep in mind in terms of whether to slow down and the seasonal factors in the favor. take a check on the parts of the market to reflect where the aggressive animal spirits flow right now. these are three quite distinct areas of the market. cloud computing, fintech and ipos look at the similar shape in the charts back from february and the surge back then why they're coming back and see this recent moves and

mike santoli with a look inside the rally. meg tirrell is looking at the vaccines just slipping a little be the in the last hour? >> certainly good to have three days straight in a row higher. we got relief but not really the rerisky move i do think maybe tomorrow's job number before the open might be a reason people wanted to flatten out when we did get to the highs. you have not quite taken care of that which is this developing down trend at the highs for the day the s&p 500 was very, very close to kind of closing up this big gap that was there from a week ago monday very close to going above the 50-day average missed those still up 3% from monday's lows why not bad for a few day's work responded to the conditions. all that stuff is positive but these things don't typically go in a straight line and explains maybe why we are fading slightly here today inclusive rally today. been saying since the highs in the market that the credit markets largely undisturbed. this isdating from right about when the s&p 500 made the peak in t

i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen and mike santoli.sdaq up 0.8% consumer discretionary led the charge because of amazon and tesla for the most part and why the nasdaq led the charge today. disney the biggest drag on the dow after barclays downgraded the stock. coming up ben silverman on whether that's a warning sign including for netflix. lindsay bell with us and mark smith from wells fargo joins the conversation mike, one thing that we haven't touched on is the big mover again short end of the yield curve reacting people expect a hike this side of christmas. >> bank of england what they said and the markets imply in terms of short runway to first rate hike there and inflation numbers in new zealand you saw something in terms of bond yields flying. >> weaker china growth. >> that's right and yet the yields higher globally on that u.s. market, 2-year treasury, two rate hikes and whether that happens or mispositioned for this move, whatever it is that seems to have been the theme goes with the idea that inflation is going to be the worry

. >> mike santoli is tracking the market action and steve liesman -- >> matching ties. >> inside the jobs report. mike, start us off. >> i think it's october colors the market you could say is a muted response uncertain response to the jobs numbers. evenly balanced between stuff going up and down. the higher treasury yields but enabling the s&p to retain this 1% plus gain for the week and puts it in a little no man's land below the 50-day average above the 100-day average. regained .4 of the losses peak to truf from sect 2 back to monday's low also never did get back to this point here which is the july lows but percent below bottoming out on monday. still back and forth here. slight cyclical bias today look at from pre-covid days. it's significant 1.6% we did get higher than this in the spring remember this positioning shock and people focused on the inflation story and then settle back below it. this is why it's key back in february of 2020 that's really where things fell off the cliff 1.6. clearly not a bad thing in terms of economic message to go higher inflation story is top of

mike santoli is down at the cme.ks all month growth stocks have been reviving even thoughe1 the economy seemsxd■to ber reacceleration phase the numbers seem to be good enough to make 2022 forecasts pla■5h%ápj they stand.e■ considering these numbers were u.s. gdp was growing at 2%, slower than it had been earlier in the year. >> mike santoli thank you. >>> let's move to the bond w market we had a seven-year auction0h8 the past hour. internals were pretty strong but pricing was e■weak rick santelli here rick, what do you make of it >> yeah, 183 billion supply out the door 62 billion seven years cv táone app.j■ you are exactly right. when issues it was trading 144, 144.5 and we priced it at 1.461. higher yield, lower price. i tailed and it was messy. all the other internals, especially the indirect and: direct bidders, dealers taking a small amount was very strong probably there is a mixed bag because there is mixed feelings about where interest rates can look at the+ two day of t■tens yesterday was 1.55%, now hovering

ideas coming up but we are going to start this morning with the rally and we're tech all of it, mike santolias more hi, mike >> yeah, carl. big tech stock, driving higher in july and august had the worst decline, sort of got most oversold now participating fully. look at the nasdaq 100 -- well, here we have it since june 30th of this year you kind of have a flat line look at the big bounce we got into the high. it's adhering pretty well to the longer trend line. it bounced off the other day look at the nasdaq against the dow, trading off leadership over the course of this year. it's mostly been an elegant rotation it has turned much more messy recently if you look here, nasdaq 100 in white really had a tough time in the spring the dow is fine. we pointed this out a couple times, dow, a little bit of a global slowdown starting in august the big cap tech and the concerted declines, with impacts today. all of them up 1.5%. seems like things got a little too pressured. we're get something relief it's one clear if big cap is positioned you see the banks break out. and one of the reasons the money

let's get to mike santoli, who is tracking the market action. fed, inflation, what are you watching >> yeah, it's been a twitchy market all within a range, about 3% range i'd say in the last couple of weeks. not really breaking down decisively but also all the rallies have been brief and kind of weak actually so we still have the short-term downtrend. sort of failing to revisit last week's lows. we have absorbed those headlines, hot inflation number. obviously the fed talking taper and accelerated taper. the market pricing and maybe a rate hike sooner than later. the market is not really breaking down on all those things take a look at the yield curve this is where some of that kind of new thinking on what might happen with the fed and with growth is manifesting. 30 years so, this is sort of an incomplete surge in the yield curve you might say because look what happens after recessions normally it surges up you get above two percentage points didn't get there this time we've curled lower even recently the two-low. it's been since a high since ma

mike santoli will tell you, it's a darts business darts businesses are not sexy.n't know if anyone's old enough to remember whenwe used to breathlessly follow schwab and etrade shares and see what the darts were each month. nobody wants to be in a darts business so i don't think the stock even down as much as it is. i don't think it gets killed from here because it's very unique, and it still does have a hard-core user base. i just think there's better places to be allocated in financial technology >> bitcoin, by the way, down 5%. shares of coca-cola moving higher today following its earnings this morning. the company posted a beat on both the top and bottom lines. it saw volume growth across all of categories just to give you a sample, nutrition, juice, dairy and plant-based beverages grew by 12% and both its sparkling soft drinks, which is soda, and hydration, sports, coffee and tea segment grew by 6% i did speak with coca-cola chair and ceo. >> as we've learned to adapt and adjust and be flexible with how we invest and how we execute our business, we have gotte

more that three times the market cap of intel over $600 billion for nvidia an incredible rise mike santoli we will see you again soon. >>> let's get to the bond market they are talk being the yield curve, the australian debt that's been on fire, rick, they are talking about the german bund and the ten-year going positive what is going on with bond yields these days? >> you summed it up. basically, no matter where in the world you look central banks either are losing control of markets or they understand it time to loosen the reins the central bank sent a huge signal to the markets. our day-to-day, employment cost index, up 1.3%, the hottest ever since recordkeeping. personal consumption expenditure, core deflators, both year over year, the hottest in 30 years. look at what one week of tens and 30s look like. right now, 1.55. down eight on tens, down a dozen on the 30s for the week. 30s minus fives, one of those freds. the flattest in 13 months. dropping bund yields. they have had high inflation data today it loo like they were going to get a record high yield close at minus 6 it didn't hap

mike santoli, our chief markets commentator says his mystery broker >> here's what he tweeted. the mystery broker backs off his call for a correction and now expects stocks to move higher and cites the market's resilience and cites the energy and eps forecast dip, near textbook technical bottoming process and coming seasonal strength is this the week that did it are we back thinking that the market can move higher >> yeah, scott it's a great question, and i have to go back to what john just said. what i'm looking at, the cpi and ppi numbers were a little more tame off the higher base and inflation is here and unemployment numbers were tough from september, but claims data this week had a two-handle on it and it was the first time we've seen that since march 2020 and part of it when i look at earnings and financials, i'm really curious to see how the companies that john just described that deliver things and how do they deal with supply shortages and supply chain issues and input prices rise that's what i'm starting to turn to as we head forward deeper into the earnings season,

twitter is down 6.5% could today's selloff be part of a massive reset for the market mike santoli is at the nyse taking a look. >> an accelerated day of the reset that's been going on weeks if not months. what do i mean the large cap indexes catching down to the experience of the last five or six weeks ago today it is mostly the mega caps that have take ten s&p 500 back to where it first traded in late june you have essentially swept aside three months worth of that grinding uptrend that was largely attributed to some of the big growth stocks. along the way, a couple of relevant streaks have now ended. it was one of the 12 longest period of times without a 5% pullback in market history that's over. what comes next? historically, you have some further extension to the downside, 8%, 10%, half the time you get a regular correction but never in history was it the ultimate peak of a bull market when it ended those streaks. also seven straight months of gains for the s&p is also swept by the wayside what does it mean going forward? we are seeing the growth stocks having a reckoning and com

bob pisani at the nyse ethan harris and mike santoli join us. ethan, what's the base case for fed tightening at this point >> we don't think they are actually going to get going until 2023 in terms of rate hikes. we will probably here a about tapering. >> when you say on the verge of tapering, you expect a november announcement and maybe a december start date? >> that's about right. we think we will also have a fairly short time frame for ending the tapering. probably next summer. >> let me turn to bob pisani with a look at what the market is expecting for the fed here in light of all the supply chain issues we are facing >> this is a delicate moment for stock investors. steve was talking about the possibility of the fed moving up the time line for hiking up interest rates, maybe up to september of 2022. this makes stocks investors nervous because historically, one of the rules of bull markets has been a fed policy mistake, the market means sudden unexpected moves up in interest rates by the federal reserve that's a worry the problem is, the fed

let's get to mike santoli at the nyse. >> it has been jumpy that's press much what's promised in september. it is living up or living down to that reputation look at the six-month chart of the s&p 500. the picture that emerges is we have over the last five weeks been kind of tracing back and testing whether that late summer leiftation in the markets messily kinds of driven by the big growth stocks was for real, if you are going the see real buyers come in as we had to price in an economic deceleration and policy flux we didn't go back to that level. that's mid july low. at the lows on monday we were only 1% above that traders were looking to see if we eventually got there. the result is we are a little more than 3% off the highs from september 2nd. a little less than 3% off the lows not quite halfway back from the losses there i think it is preserving a lot of kind of uncertainty on both sides. bulls and bears, i doubt they changed their opinions based on this week's activity because it seems to be operating within the bands of where both think the market ought to be look on a month-to-dat

it has had a great run i do think some of it, a lot is priced in. >> mike santoli, what would you makeetflix at 635 today obviously it overshot the price target, up by 720 now. >> you had to be pretty aggressive, how you want to describe the valuation, put it in a target. ubs is talking about 37 times 2025 free cash flow to tell you how far you have to stretch, but it hasn't mattered necessarily in the long term in terms of how the company has performed and the stock has performed. my read on how the shares have behaved recently is you came out of that sideways period just at the moment when every other competitor took a shot you knew what traction those services did and didn't have it didn't seem to make an enduring dent in netflix, you know, subscriber trend even though they missed on one quarter and it was fine. netflix is the incumbent and they are tv right now. so what do you pay to participate in that? i don't know, but i do think that the market is basically saying they've weathered a lot of the threats it is not so much what to come >> "squid game" reportedly generating almost

. >> let's focus on the big stories of today mike santoli is tracking the action and meg tirrell watchinghe fda. mo broader markets? >> ugly on the index level if you count the overnight sessions it is jumpy within a range. a decent half percent selloff. fully recovered by the morning and 2% above last week's intraday low 4% below the highs there is this short term down trend with the rally fizzling out. that's something that has traders concerned and attempts at traction. that attempt at a low it is the style of a bottoming process that sometimes tacks effect. dialing back to last october it was a deeper pullback and did look like? if you look it is really the bigger stocks and that have been weighing on things the average stock in the market slightly outperforming the s&p 500. this is the yps. yet it spy backwards. s&p 500 stocks but weighted in reverse order so the smallest are weighted the largest the prices do reflect that upside down waiting and actually pretty good performance since the september 2 high in the s&p 500. outperformed the nasdaq 100. mega cap growth stocks with a big

if you are just joining us, i'm sara eisen and mike santoli in for wilfred frost.her by 75 tft the outlier and finished the week higher. third positive week in a row for the dow. american express today, biggest negative is honeywell. s&p 500 closing down still higher for the week. as far as the story today, communication services we know is worst performing sector consumer discretionary, technology and materials weaker. financials leading the market higher the nasdaq down .8%. big tech hit hard today. amazon, apple, the biggest drags. microsoft as well. tesla with a good day following a strong one yesterday netflix up a third week of gains. coming up, talking to tech investor dan niles and what he is watching on the big tech earnings and why he has more shorts than longs in the portfolio. pfizer says the kid sized doze of the covid-19 vaccine is nearly 91% effective to prevent infections dr. levy is back on the show to weigh in on when the shots could be approved for that age group >>> on the markets nancy tengler is with us and david joins the conversation first,

i'm wilfred frost with sara eisen and mike santoli we did just slip into the close. dow. just 312 of gain just the high 487. and 1.25 of a percent for the nasdaq it was a broad rally tech and cyclicals doing well today. eric johnson who downgraded the bullish view of the market last month on whether he thinks there' more downside senator warren on the call for an insider trading probe into fed officials and why she said fed chairman powell is a dangerous man. jimmy chang joins the conversation mike, to you first slipp slippage into the close but brings us back to flat for the dow on the week. >> kind of made up for yesterday's losses the bounce stopped right exactly where you would say tmd if it were just a reflex bounce. we talk about this a lot when the market has been in one of these chop zones it gets tactical the levels seem to matter a lot and because really the macro fundamentals haven't changed that much. it is about positioning and the clustering of positioning is around a lot of these levels so that's where we are at the moment takes more than a day bounce

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments.ession highs. up 485 session high north of 500. nasdaq is on track for its best day since may. and it's pretty broad. sectors are higher bank earnings fueling it or a sense that things went too far >> combination the reason i think it's broad is that you have yields calming down anybody using that as a cue to sell the tech stocks is no longer on the table for the day. the good economic numbers. this comes after a couple of weeks with the economic surprise index is looking better. it does seem like it was enough to release the market from this pattern of just kind of grinding lower. every rally sold quickly we talked about how sell the close didn't work and very short term - >> every day >> just when i said we noticed it and then that's what happened middle of the day too many people watching this what about sara with the dow hat in july? >> can't quite get back there. my fault not yours. always. >> i feel like this is false, stephanie. this isn't the first time i have heard your views

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day and chief investment strategist from the all-time high oak tree capital with a positive note on the economy joining cnbc earlier today. >> i'm bullish on the economy. i think that stocks won't crap out as long as we have economic growth. >> that's a technical term. >> yeah. exactly. not going to repeat it but he can get away with it because his foirm manages $143 billion it's now searching for something to derail the positive momentum. >> potentially he's talking in broad terms usually. as the economy expands that's the key driver of the direction stocks move and not the speed. the earnings tracking in the right direction and worth asking whether we completed a real reset of this market i think we got the seasonal shakeout and right now burning up the skepticism that built up through september and into october and see if we get something far from there but i agree that given the fact we didn't see any real cracks open up in terms of beyond what really is going on in equities and it seems as if you have a reaccelerat

the road. >> michael, i appreciate it, as always thanks for joining the conversation that's mike santoli. i want to discuss the stock with jim lebenthal right now because it's having a nice move and it plays into the conversation we're having right now energy, financials, materials are leading once again they have also been the leadership group for the last month. cleveland-cliffs, jimmy, the stock's getting a nice move of 5.5% you said you actually spoke to the ceo and you've been defending this stock as it has had some turbulence over the last two, three weeks. >> yeah, it has had turbulence there's no question about it i do think, however, the longterm trend is intact i have to say there's a lot of people who consider this an iron ore company. it's not it's an integrated steel manufacturer which means the iron ore produces, goes into the manufacture of steel, but it then sells at now very inflated prices this is important because this deal today secures a new source of raw material, namely, scrap metal for them t taking scrap metal and using electric arc furnaces to turn it into steel

let's get to mike santoli who is looking at how the different components of tech are trading relativeother. mike >> yeah, jon well, today you know, this rally is floating most boats in tech and outside yields down a little bit. taiwan semiconductor taking pressure off the chip area year to date basis, we can decompose what we refer to as technology into a few different areas. you have a communications services, of course, that's most of faang semis, most directly and then software and they sort of traded off leadership over the course of the year but look at how they're all clustered with roughly the same year to date returns also, right around where the s&p is trading conspicuously outside is tech hardware apple is up only maybe 7% year to date. that's been a drag but not really holding things down what i think is very interesting is here you had the big semis over software move that was reflation that was cyclical. and then you had the reverse really since the late summer it's now coming together what's interesting about semis today, being up to where they are, it was precarious you

mike santoli has a look at that rally. mike, what are you seeing today? >> yeah.ee today a little more inclusive than it has been the average stock has a lot of catchup to do to the very largest once today, apple, amazon, nvidia, tesla are responsible for vast majority of the gains in the nasdaq 100 this shows you the ndx concentrated in the top five names, 40% of the market weight is in five stocks. the equal version, equal weighted version of the same 100 stock index that has lagged badly as you can see here, rolled twice in the last couple of months, catching up a little bit today. this is the equal-weighted s&p technology sector. also under performing a bit. just only recently, though and here we have the small cap information technology sector, subset of the s&p 600 small cap. so what you see here basically is the megacaps kind of taking more than their share. you can read this two ways, one of which is it's a very narrow market, concentrated bets. the big winners keep on winning. the other way is we had a consolidation and shakeout in the average stock. most

delano, kristina and michael santoli, thank you very much today.pid fire." we have more news before we head to the break >>> cnbc's indkate rooney was ae to confirm the deal between paypal and pintrest, they're in the early stages paypal down about 6% on what could be an acquisition looking around $40 a share maybe though pintrest is up, maybe the market doubting the details. pintrest trading around 62 we have a news alert on netflix transgender employees, and their allies are holding a rally and facing counterprotesters ahead of a walkout at netflix epic building in hollywood. this is in protest of the handling of dave chappelle's stand-up "the closer." many on netflix staff a angered by his special saying it was trans phobic and by internal communications from executives about it up until yesterday the co-ceo stayed mum, his counterer part defended it. after the company's earnings record, he said, quote, obviously, i screwed up that internal communication i should have led with more humanity he stands by the special and says he is committed to su

mike santoli tracking the choppy market action.nd the debt ceiling drama start us off with another wild session now. we've seen five days in a row of 1% moves in either direction >> and while not a 1% move today, we are more than 1% off the morning lows in the s&p 500 even further off the overnight lows it still represents a bit of an indecisive market. we're under some stress. the technical outlook has become just a little bit slippery that far shows you why there's not that much conviction on either side. but those headlines about a potential deal potentially to extend the debt ceiling shows you the removal of one possible negative is enough to kind of relieve the pressure in the short term it doesn't necessarily look like a brilliant uptrend anymore, but it is in the context of a broader reset that's been going on for about five weeks. i wanted to take a look at a slightly long-term view of the s&p to its 100-day average we are right now almost exactly at the 100-day average so, i wanted to bring attention to what happened here

cnbc senior markets common taert mike santoli, and steven weisz as well.you factor in some of the high-profile big cap declines off earnings most notably, of course, facebook today, quite impressive we continue to grind higher to these records again. >> yeah, facebook, lockheed, in a smaller group, taking down the defense contractors. but in general, in aggregate, earnings are good enough to keep things supported seasonally, the path of least resistance tends to be higher. we're still working off some of the defensive positionings put in place in september and october. people certainly don't want the market to get away to the upside as i mentioned, top of the hour, it's getting a little extended in the short term. a little choppier below the surface. not as many stocks that are participating today, have really mega caps like nvidia and apple. but it's enough to move things ahead for another day. >> what do you make of the facebook turnaround? i know you own some of these big mega tech stocks i don't think facebook is one. >> you know, i actually do own fac

i'm david faber with morgan brennan and mike santoli live at post nine. at markets half hour into trading and we are up on all the major averages morgan >> yes we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three of the movers we are watching this morning. we're going to start with merck and partner ridgeback biotherapeutics, asking for its covid pill, if approved it could be available later this year morgan stanley initiating coverage on sophie with an overweight rating calling it, quote, powerful revenue growth story and you can see those shares are up 7% on that we're going to end with aspen technology announcing a merge with emerson businesses, a software deal worth $11 billion, cash and stock deal, valued at $160 per share for aspen and you can see those shares are up about 7.5% emerson is down about 2% david? >> somewhat complex transaction involving those software side of that you're looking at it, can the bounce in the stock market be trusted? that is a column from mike santoli over the weekend you asked the question, what's the answer >> i t

cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli is here and lindsay bell with us, as well.markets. stocks selling off today wiping away all gains made on friday the nasdaq the worst performer on track to close at the lowest level since june 21. down 2.2%. mike, this is very much tech leading the declines, having of course over the summer propped the broader markets up. >> it is a give back s&p 500 back to late june levels and didn't have the higher highs the way that the nasdaq 100 did. the s&p itself indeex is in a little bit of a fragile state. we kind of lost that automatic rotational uptrend we had for a while. it seems as if we're not really talking about new kind of macro concerns making the way into the market very much seems flows and unbalanced equities down today so it's still kind of a getting oversold on the index level and doesn't mean that the declines stop on a dime. >> lindsay, we are about to go into earnings season again really in full swing you track the expectations if fedex or nike are any indication it's going to be a little bumpier than the previous s

it's relatively encouraging so far. >> all right mike santoli, thank you.ly. supply chain disruptions may worry some companies but albertsons isn't feeling the sting, delivering strong second quarter results announcing a 20% increase to its quarterly dividend and raising the outlook to the 2021 fiscal year. joining us for a first, vivek sankaran it's great to have you back on in terms of the numbers you put out this morning, we were talking about the strength of the consumer talk us through that as with you have also had to navigate supply chain challenges which you've been hearing from so many companies. >> thank you, morgan yes, we feel good progress we're making in the company and the results we delivered i did hear you talking about the consumer and the consumer, we think, is still really strong. we haven't seen any trade down in our business which you would typically expect if the consumer was weakening and continue to be eating at home in my opinion i think there's some stability in their behavior and they're strong you're right, there are some -- we'

good stuff mike santoli >>> bitcoin soring more than 20% over the last week of trading.n. dot awhe.n'gonyer think you're g to like it here. umm, why is everyone... throwing things at me? look, as cfo it's my job a closer look at what's behind the crypto rally when we return. don't go anywhere. randomly hurl things at me. it's also why we use workday. it gives us insights, so we quickly pivot our strategy, people, planning, you name it. sorry, sir. i will aim straight at your next step. see that you do. would you like some coffee? workday. the finance, hr, and planning system for a changing world. ♪ when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim even better, for awe listen.world. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim web. because platforms this innovative, aren't just made for traders - they're made by them. thinkorswim trading. from td ameritrade. >>> one f.a.a.n.g. stock has dodged the tech rec. netflix's blockbuster rally an

here to break it down, michael santoli, and seema mody. welcome. with the supply chain disruptions, thanks to strong vendor and supply chain on containerships. and also seeing rescheduling of weddings from last year, they see the direct to consumer brand diamond direct as reasons to be bullish. seema, you're the wedding expert >> this is clearly a company that has benefited by a surge in nuptials a lot of people had to delay their wedding, yes at the time when the economy is opening, people want to travel more, not just entertainment i think the supply chain part of the story is very interesting right now. the company getting upgraded because they're less vulnerable to the supply chain stocks we saw a similar story play out with lululemon back in september saying they too are using air he have knew on the air freight >> and on signet, you said you're not a holder but wish you had this >> absolutely. looking at the stock perform going back farther to 2020 that's where the bottom came in, the stock has been rising since. i'm going with seema said as

>> mike santoli thank very much. >>> small caps rallying along with the rest of the market this day. our next guest says small cap logistics companies are a good place to invest. he rupds the federated her mess kaufman small cap fund in the top 1% since its inception in 2002 let's bring in steven denickolo. i hope i am pronunesing that right. in a yeah. >> i asked michael about inflation, supply chain concerns how real a worry are they for you and the universe of stocks you cover? >> it is a great question. the overall mark peaked in early september. we have been grinding lower the last six weeks as i think investors have been grappling with difficult themes, the emergence of delta, fed tapering, and supply chain disruptions. look at the russell 2000 small cap index. it is up 15% year the date most of those gains were at the beginning of the year and we have been essentially flat since february highlighting the macro this year. usually you have a parade of negative preannouncements from lawn mower shortages not related to demand but to supply chain issues rising prices in raw materia

santoli describes it as respectable as we are above monday's intraday high best day for the s&p since july 20 and the best day for the nasdaq since may 20th. we've worked our way through some data like the ism we'll get adp tomorrow as we build up to the jobs number on sunday let's get to the half. that does it for "tech check." >>> all right, carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner why one of our committee members is buying tech today you'll find out who and what we will also debate the state of your money and the markets joining me for the hour today, stephanie link, jim lean know that will and jon najarian, co-founder of masrket rebellion.com. we have a nice tick-up in stocks today. take a look at the dow, s&p, nasdaq, everything's positive u nasdaq's getting the biggest bounce from a percentage standpoint, almost 1.5% and a good bounce across the board and the ten-year yield at 1.53 we are watching shares of facebook and the tech check gang was just talking about pete, i just want to go to you on that note i asked your brother yesterday when he was

mike santoli is watching that and taking a look at the rest of the year mike >> yeah, carl.the huge cap stocks participated in the upside this year but not driven it will maybe close this gap or not if in fact higher treasury yields will be an excuse for cyclical stocks to lead which could hinder the overall s&p this is the last eight months in the s&p 500 versus the new york stock exchange faang plus index. this index is hampered by the fact that alibaba and baidu in there. you can probably look at this two ways and say there's now upside for them to mean revert higher but it's unclear at this point if that's going to be the way facebook is actually improving today but really come back to the pact it's one of those things i put in the category of we just don't know if, in fact, this going to be something that follows through because a lot of the work if you look at what the market's message has been that there might be a cyclical reacceleration, banks higher, industrials doing okay that does not necessarily work to the strengths of the s&p 500 which is predominantly a growt

goldman with a new conviction buy let's kick off with the market >>> down at the nyc with michael santolimike >> yeah, kelly mostly green here. the big-growth stocks providing more of their share of the push higher, within 1% of the all-time high. i think it is 4536 as a closing high on the same day one question is the market going to follow the seasonal script perfectly two years in a row last year and this year, september 2nd, high. sell-off for three weeks into september. a bounce, a further decline and a recovery last year we didn't get done with did downside until october 30th, right before the election. right here it looks pretty textbook the way this is working out. so you would have to say you give the benefit of the doubt to some of the seasonal advantages. one thing i will amend, kelly, that b of a fund manager survey. the fund managers were bearish a week and two weeks ago when the survey was done. that was here, not where we are right now. that sells you about market psychology look at the style and sector moves here banks versus technology, they've kind of each had their mome

mike santoli joins u to break down the snapback rally.retty resilient here not necessarily broadly inclusive a move you might expect but the software sector is leadership for various parts of this year for the overall market the software etf here, igv is in green. you see not only at a new record high but nosed ahead of the s&p 500 on a year to date basis. with the significant help of two of the heavy weights, microsoft and salesforce together are about 18% or so of that etf of the overall sector, just the megacaps really doing more of the heavy lifting. take a look at more broadly in technology if you do an equal weighted version of the s&p 500 technology sector, the ticker this etf, also reasserted itself a little bit, got that double bottom look to it in september, october, but not quite yet back up to those highs. similar to the overall market. so obviously semis might have a little more room to come back. so it seems like the growth trade is back in gear to some degree it's been pretty tough to extrapolate that all year because we sw

. >>> let's get back to amazon trading lower today, as you know and to mike santoli, who has a different of looking at its valuation compared to peers. hi, mike. >> compared to peers specifically of aws and web services, the cloud software business over the last few months, amazon shares have done worse than flat whereas the comps, microsoft, alphabet, snowflake, digital ocean they've actually had a very good run and presumably because aws has done better than expectations in the last couple of quarters, you would think that that piece of amazon is gathering value the same way that these comps are and this is b of a's way of looking at things here and what's happening is the market is devaluing the e-commerce part of amazon by default. take a look at amazon relative i have noted for a while that it's traded more in sync with the cloud group than it has with retail and it probably does tell you that it's becoming an increasing part of the valuation arguably on the sum of the parts basis over time. it seems as if this would be supportive of amazon's valuation, the idea that it should have

along with julia and michael santoli to round things out.ybody let's start with goldman sachs downgrading its gdp forecast, with concerns on consumer spending and the virus drag. they put the fourth quarter growth to 4.5% to 5% implying a downgrade to 5.6% on the year and inflation is said to slow global growth. on the one hand, this is getting priced in now. >> you can make that argument. in particular, one element of goldman's call, which is monitoring this assumed shift next year for consumers from goods into services, which, you know, obviously may not be seamless, but you have to expect it'll happen and will that take some of the pressure off supply chains you have this huge pull forward of goods demand. goldman for next year is still above consensus in terms of overall real gdp growth for the u.s. the third quarter, we know, was weak now it's a matter of, are we reaccelerating into the fourth quarter? so i do think that this is going to be the conversation fiscal drag, for one thing, whether we pass anything in congress or not, is goin

meanwhile, tesla is putting the t in trillion joining the likes of apple, microsoft and amazon mike santolias a look at that valuation. mike, we said this morning it added two fords to the market cap gain just yesterday. >> yeah. obviously tesla and ford operating really in different galaxies, feeding off of different investor energies and really mindsets and sendries you might say. how many macy's and walmarts did amazon consume on the way up that's maybe the way to think about it tesla no doubt being sort of valued as a software and kind of world-changing story, not necessarily as a manufacturer. i have a year and a half, just about a year and a half chart up here because i want to show how the kings of gains and these sprints that tesla has is not something unique to right now. so this right here shows you when tesla announced a stock split, august of 2020, in three weeks the stock went from 275 to 500. it's a nonfundamental input. it shouldn't matter to the valuation, it mattered to the stock. as soon as you got to that split was effective, the fever broke that was when faang and other

santoli describes it as respectable as we are above monday's intraday high best day for the s&p since july 20 and the best day for the nasdaq since may 20th. we've worked our way through some data like the ism we'll get adp tomorrow as we build up to the jobs number on sunday let's get to the half. that does it for "tech check." >>> all right, carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner why one of our committee members is buying tech today you'll find out who and what we will also debate the state of your money and the markets joining me for the hour today, stephanie link, jim lean know that will and jon najarian, co-founder of masrket rebellion.com. we have a nice tick-up in stocks today. take a look at the dow, s&p, nasdaq, everything's positive u nasdaq's getting the biggest bounce from a percentage standpoint, almost.5

okay when we come back, mike santoli's pre-market playbook on a wednesday morning and then the interviewe tcng "uawahisqwk box" you are tcng "uawahisqwk box" and this is cnbc. [coins clinking in jar] ♪ you can get it if you really want it, by jimmy cliff ♪ uitcase closing] [gusts of wind] [ding] [gusts of wind] sustainability is essential to creating a better tomorrow. that's why cisco is committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2040. and we believe our smart buildings solutions can help. providing power to reduce emissions, intelligence to eliminate waste, and collaboration tools that help the workplace and the planet. between meeting human needs and a sustainable future, there's a bridge. cisco, the bridge to possible. >>> a little more than an hour to go on the opening bell on wall street, mike santoli joins us with what he is watching in the markets as the s&p rides the five-day winning streak. >> pretty aggressive come back not too surprisingly, they're in for a breather one thing we did with this rebound is retake the 20% year-to-date gain level on the s&p 500. this is a one-ye

still, there's a bear case to be made mike santoli is here to tell us about what it is. >> actually lastde a case it had done a good job of discounting, and perhaps what the fed is going to do. technically if you look at the s&p 500, it did win over a lot of skeptics. we also got investor sentiment pretty negative, so people are wonder if we see something like in late october of last year, where there was a durable bottom made after that month after a correct in september, and as you see, it created a scoop there, you know, put some distance between us and the lows. now, take a look at some of the biggest stocks in the market on the nasdaq it's a mixed bag in terms of whether we see progress being ahead of us for the s&p itself look at the advantage that facebook has given up in the last few months. it looks like it might firm up today. apple, amazon, the market has done what it's done this year. these three stocks, by the way, are about one eighth of the index, 2u8ly a drag, make that's a positive for the rest of 9 market the inflation story is not going to go away take a look at how in

mike santoli has a lot more on the selloff.e >> i think it's best viewed as part of this on going kind of painful reset in the market. just the weight of the large cap growth stocks continues to be the main story recently as we have this messy rotation transition when we go down in price in the s&p, you also go back in time. one element of that reset, we're trading at levels in the s&p we first reached in late june so you got three months worth of upside essentially kind of wiped away for now and essentially retesting those mid-year levels. take a look at the nasdaq 100 etf against what you would call the typical stock in the russell 1,000. so, the average stock against the large cap growth stocks and they kind of had this round trip together this goes back to early july and right now you see, yeah, that big outperformance built up by the nasdaq 100 now surrendered entirely and today by the way, you know, that equal weight russell 1,000 is down only one third of 13rs compared to more than 2% declined by the nasdaq 100. that's t

santoli, mike santoli has been looking at the health of the american consumer amidst all these earningset was having a little struggles. it was not saying the consumer was in pad shape s&p 500 making further progress back authorize those highs raised in early september. 45, 45 was the inter-day high a. little below that on a closing basis. so the market making its case that it did have a proper shakeout arc reset everyone's expectation went down, earnings forecast got more conservative along the way so you can't say in the clear, but the market is definitely much more black in balance very much a clothe-led move yesterday. keep in mind, it's the nasdaq stock that has this punishable above their weight yesterday take a look at the consumer staples area this is etfs that equal weight those sectors. it takes away the outsized effect of things like tesla, for example, and so, it's been, you know, participanty much nudge toward new highs, sideways for months look at the big spread the the market was concerned about consumer spending power and stress is building up, you would see consumer sta

hey, just real quick, what santoli was talking about. 49% probability in the september 22 rate hike comeumber. not as strong as the jobs added in may and june. it's likely for the fed to taper. 500,000. that itself mark for september the unemployment rate ticking down to 5.1% another strong month of earnings at po.4. adp came stronger than expected. not enough to prompt too many upgrades on the street david from the hr software company, ukg pointed to the prior three months, now looks roughly inline with the consensus, that 0.1% seasonal correlates with payroll around 500,000 plus or minus. how much plus or minus we will what up that carefully they think there is a low bar for the fed to keep on the taper path he writes in his commentary. we now believe the fed will go ahead and taper in november even if the report is in the ballpark of the previous disappoint, report for august. powell said he wanted a decent number this mate be in between factors keeping job breathe depressed. they were proving the worst of the delta-related slowdown extended unemployment benefits were ending and schoo

trying to get above 20 point away let's watch all that this morning with our senior commentator, mark santolienge this gentle upward grind. and already we've gotten into low volume, upward spiral type mode we're getting stressed in the very short term. i think a lot of people can say we have spectism is to burn up and use as fuel for maybe further upside into the fourth quarter. wouldn't or shouldn't surprise anyone, if the market takes a rest right here. you're looking at oil just slightly here. it's interesting context for the heart of earnings season where you often have a push pull that keeps index volatility trapped but a lot of underlying corporate moves. >> that's a good set up for us as we go to our next guest as well so, threats bring in schwab asset chief investment officer as we get earnings season in full, i guess, full court here, i do want to get your take on what we're seeing so far from companies. on the one hand, it seems like consumer's very strong and many companies are able to grow their earnings on the other hand, you have costs and inflation pressures given what we're se