in 2012, there's rick santorum. rick santorum won the iowa caucuses.e. the difference between romney and santorum was that small. but this was a major surprise because santorum had been pulling in single digits until about a week before caucus day. and he surge really in the final five or six days of the caucuses and just pulled out a surprise victory. now, the interesting thing here is romney had been favored to win iowa. we've seen all year before the caucuses different candidates, rick perry for a while, newt gingrich, herman cain, who had sort of risen up briefly, taken the lead in pulling only to fall back. so we had seen before this there is an appetite among republicans for a romney alternative. and it just happened to be, it seems, rick santorum's turn to try on that role, right as the caucuses arrive. so he rose up, won the caucuses, did not do much in new hampshire, that gingrich at the moment, and santorum had another moment late in the primaries. but no one was ever able to put together, obviously knocking off romney. but there is a candida

romney and santorum.as a major surprise, because santorum had been polling in single digits until about a week before caucus day. he searched really in the final five or six days of the caucuses, and just pulled out a surprise victory. the interesting thing, as romney had been favored to win iowa, we have seen all year before the caucus different candidates rick perry for, while newt, cambridge and -- risen up briefly, taking the lead in polling, only to fall back. we have seen before this, there was an appetite among republicans for a romney alternative. and you just happen to be it, seems rick santorum's turn to try on that roll right as the caucuses arrived. so he rosa, he won the caucuses, he did not do much in new hampshire, than gingrich other, moment santorum had another moment leana primaries. no one was able to win together and obviously not go -- but there is a candidate who is in single digits doing one week before caucus day who had an up winning. there is probably the biggest lead surprise we

rick santorum won in 2012.n though we are in this unprecedented moment, iowa is often unpredictable. >> it certainly is. especially now mother nature is coming in, it's going to test the resolve of the turnout for the campaigns. you can sit there throughout the spring and summer and fall and work on a commit to caucus cooperation, but you really have to drill it home when you have these kinds of conditions. one of the things that is in donald trump's favor is in that des moines register poll, talked about where he is overall. but the enthusiasm gap is important. he has an 88% very high enthusiasm rating with the voters. nikki haley is down to like 40. so it just goes to show he has people that are more energized and enthusiastic about getting out there to vote for him. so that bodes well for him. look, overall the most important thing is turning people out to vote. ron desantis has a tremendous ground game. he has been working on this for a long time, knocking on doors, making phone calls, and doing this commit

votes than romney. >> you feel for rick santorum because he was snake bitten.d showing. he was kind of the story come in. surprising showing, right. >> bret: the eventual winner of the most delegates would change once again. >> iowa casts 22 votes for ron paul. [cheers] >> bret: since they were not bound to vote for santorum or romney at the convention, the delegates were able to switch their preference. >> representative paul saw how contested c conventions could ld to nomination. >> 2016 cycle the made delegates bound to the candidate for whom they were allocated. >> that was something that you did have, especially in the 1970s where the reagan vs. ford campaign really wasn't locked up until the national convention. 123[cheers] >> democrats don't have binding delegates changed theirs as well after issues plagued the 2020 caucuses. >> you can't talk about the 2020 democratic nomination process without saying it was a debacle. >> that we're going to get to a point that we aren't able to say definitively what the outcome is tonight. >> bret: the party was unable

for rick santorum. there might've been 20 of us there. i was sitting in the front row. there was nice wine. he talked a lot about obama care and how horrible it was. i couldn't understand what was that was so horrible about it. i asked him. we went through three or four questions because i couldn't get to the essence of what was so horrible about obamacare. ultimately, he said, if you are stupid enough not to get insurance, that's your problem. have i answered your question? and i said, yes, you have. >> you get to know each other. >> we didn'know anybody. [indiscernible] >> good luck. did you expect it to be this cold? >> no. host: caucus tourists. democrats from california traveling to iowa in january to see a republican iowa caucus. we will be there tomorrow night as well. a reminder that our coverage begins on

in 2012, the republicans had a bit of a fiasco because rick santorum and mitt romney ended up finishingery close. the final margin was something like eight and they had difficulty getting results for the last few precincts which could have been enough to change the outcome. it depends how close it is. if it is a squeaker maybe. the way things are looking omicron iowa, trump is so far ahead of the rest of the field i don't think there's going to be any question a■bout who one cow the caucus. is it possible someone could complain? i guess. you are reminding me of the 1980 caucuses which everybody remembers. george w. bush winning over ronald reagan. there were people who felt reagan's numbers were undercounted because of precincts that came in very late. ronald reagan never went around complaining the election was rigged. >> has iowa done anything to ensure people have confidence in the caucuses? have they made changes where they can show we have done something so the country can have confidence in the way we are doing this? >> these are run by the state parties. not election officials an

some candidates go have an event at every single one like rick santorum in 2012.bargain. iowans have loved this bargain it's been a massive economic boom millions and millions of dollars. part of the turnout is not just people interested in politics but it is an iowans having pride in the attention they get. the role their state plays. it's in every four year tradition for many voters in iowa to show up for the caucuses. this year is the republican party. >> what is at stake for these republican presidential candidates tonight? >> a while normally it is very, very exciting. it is exciting this year because so many candidates come to iowa and there is some really close races. most famously in 2016 on the democratic side .02% difference between bernie sanders and hilary clinton. we have had some wildly close races on the republican side rick santorum of course one in 2012. mike huckabee one and 2008. this year is different. and as we like to say when donald trump is involved in american politics things are different. and so what is at stake here is how difficult don

rick santorum, of course, won in 2012. mike huckabee won in 2008.his year is different and as we like to say, when donald trump is involved in american politics, things are different, so what is at stake here is really the big test of how difficult donald trump -- his pass at the nomination is going to be, and iowa is really going to have a huge say in that. and you know, it is not rocket science to say that donald trump will most likely win, but there is winning and there's winning. so it's really a lot about the expectations for donald trump and then also of course who comes in second and by how much. host: the former president polling at nearly 50% in the last des moines register poll. is that unprecedented? bob: no. i mean, if we include the democrats, which we will continue to be because may in four years, they will come to their senses and come back to iowa, but it has only happened once before where one candidate had a massive large lead and that was al gore in 2000 on the democratic side where he ended up winning over bill bradley but on the

but most of these fit the huckabee santorum cruz.. deeply religious here. and you see cruz won it but the thing you don't see is donald trump's name here. donald trump got 11% of the vote in sioux county. this is the ninth largest in terms of votes produced on caucus night. donald trump was 11%. this was his worst county in the state. remember in 2016 there was a lot of skepticism, resistance to him among evangelicals. the story of the last eight years. that seems to have changed. sioux county will tell us a lot about that story tonight. is trump winning here? how much is he winning by? is it a runaway? those are the sorts of things we're going to be looking for. those 42 counties, huckabee, santorum and cruz, how many of them is trump flipping over? and conversely, if desantis is going to make any noise tonight, going to surprise anyone, look as well to those 42 counties. is he winning any of them? is he winning a bub ch of them? is he close to trump in a bunch of them? those are core counties for him because he's going after the ev

donald trump at 48%, nikki haley at 20, santorum at 16. so this would be an earth-shattering what if someone beat donald trump in iowa. so largely, it seems to be a fight for second place. but can trump stay under there? so what do you look for? one of the key things, erin, we talked about this a little the other night. if you look at this, the deeper the shading, the more evangelicals live in the counties. that's the area donald trump split with ted cruz in 2016. that's where the area where donald trump, mostly small rural counties, maybe a few thousand people, but if you add them all up, that's how he offsets any losses in the suburban areas. that's the key. that's where trump wants to run it up. and that's where they're worried about turn south. if you're nikki haley and looking at the map, what you're thinking about is can i get into the suburban counties? can i get people to come out there? i want to show you right here. the lighter gray counties, the lighter gray around des moines and ames, around sioux city, cedar falls, these are n

he has done what huckabee did and cruz and santorum successful here as well.hat is still a big, big deficit to try to bridge this late in the game. >> well, bob vander plaats knows the state of iowa better than i do and most people do. he sees the same enthusiasm that i see on the ground. governor desantis as i said before has worked hard to earn the votes of the people of iowa. we feel really good about the organization on the ground. it's going to be a turnout game in the frozen tundra that we are dealing with right now. you know, just today we are going up to sioux city and you are looking out. the roads are still icy and it's still difficult to get around and it's cold. getting that turnout is going to be really important. importantly, people are ready to move forward. they want to look forward instead of backwards. somebody who can serve for eight years and not four. want somebody to focus on their issues in the case of president trump and legal issues on him. >> laura: all right, congressman. hold on we have to get byron donalds in on that. >> get the jo

i covered the 2012 republican contest and i remember rick santorum just really catching fire, forgive the cliche, right at the very end. and it did happen. and these things have happened before. >> yeah. and if the campaign that's using that same kind of network is the desantis campaign. the evangelical network. you saw in the debate the other night, he was talking about a school choice and education issues that are dear to that network and santorum talked about those issues back in that election. so if it were to happen that way for desantis, it would be among that network. he's got some key religious endorsement, religious leader endorsements out there, but then again, so does donald trump. he's not without reenforcements among the evangelical and christian crowd. so obviously they're fighting it out right there. and the desantis people believe their supporters that they have identified as wanting to go for him, that they're hard core. they're ready to go. they're excited and they're not going to be deterred by atmospherics or polling or anything else. they still have a good thought

and rick santorum won the iowa caucus. he came from out of nowhere. we have seen it happen. whisper in my ear says it could happen again. who knows. anything could happen. >> you're an unaligned pollster. a finding relative to the general election is i think stunning. i'm going to put it on the screen and read it aloud to the audience. question was asked, generally speaking, would you say that president biden's policies have helped or hurt you personally. he comes out at a net negative 30%. and yet when donald trump is referenced, thinking back to when when he was president, generally speaking, would you say that donald trump's policies helped or hurt you personally, he's at plus 12%. analyze that data. first of all, does it comport with what you're find ing in iowa? >> we have not asked that identical question. what ily say is the people supportive of trump are articulate in things that i have observed that they liked the policy. thinker life was better under that. i cannot tell you that it matched what we were poll ing about him at the time he was president. so i think the

think about rick santorum, ted cruz, mike huckabee, all surprised at the last moment.you know, this has been a pretty stable race thus far but historically, lots of things can happen, so i expect just not spark tonight but flamethrowers. >> i think you are right. what are you watching for and how much of an impact you think it'll have? >> the thing i'm looking at tonight is, is there going to be this viral moments that allows someone to search. new great -- newt gingrich had that and he surged. could one of those to have the breakout moment that really starts to move the needle and you know, i agree with mark, voters are starting to really pay attention. there will be a lot of people looking at this which is why former president trump is also doing his own thing concurrently because he wants to slow down the eyeballs, he wants to make sure that no one gets too excited about his potential opponents here. >> is there any particular demographic or geographic area in iowa that you are watching to be an indicator of how well donald trump will be performing across-the-board

obviously crew didn't win, santorum didn't win, bush didn't win, but the fact this is really the only good sign if you are someone who's not a fan of donald trump at least looking at this poll and looking at history. >> and let me go back to this latest des moines register poll and talk about ron desantis a little bit, because, harry, we might have just raced past this point. ron desantis traveled to all 99 counties in the state of iowa. his whole existitances a republican candidate seems to be banking on winning iowa. these can't be good numbers. this cannot be a good result for ron desantis. they say three tickets out of iowa, but does ron desantis really have a ticket out of iowa if he's going to finish third in the fashion that we're looking at right here? >> he has a ticket back to being the governor of florida, that's what he has. >> yeah, back to tallahassee. >> back to tallahassee. the fact is this is not going to work for him. you look at the new hampshire polling, you look at the south carolina polling, you look at the national polling, he can't finish second in iowa forget

big comeback but santorum in 2012, iowa's track record of picking nominees was not so good. the last time it happened was george w. bush in 2000. he'll bristle but he wants a higher number than 40% that george w. bush got. trump's going into this essentially i'm the incumbent republican president. that's his mind-set. >> when you look at that 41%, right, obviously the way trump's polling right now could indicate it's conceivable he outperformed, and that's very unclear. where does the race stand? >> let's take a look at that. we'll get the final clue tomorrow night when the brand new iowa poll comes out. these are the three iowa polls over the last five months. trump started at 42. as of last month he was at 51. if he comes in above 50% it's going to be hard to say he's weak. if he comes in above 50%, wins iowa big like that, then it'll be up to the new hampshire stop. desantis 19 five months ago, 19 last month. a little dip in the middle but he's essentially going to flat line. haley has been an interesting story, 6% five months ago. she's now somewhere close to desantis. s

rick santorum in 2012. picked mike huckabee in 2008. all four of them.oh he see how they break down tonight. college-educated women. if nikki haley will finish that surprise strong second finish this is where she will be looking. des moines, polk county. to the west dallas county. over here along the mississippi river toward there university of iowa. that's johnson county. she will be looking in that area. rubio did well four years ago. independents. what i would point your attention to is the mississippi river counties now you see a lot of independents here as they vote and again here along the minnesota border up north. a bit of a breakdown. slide back over to the river center in des moines. wonderful place, awesome to be here the last couple of days. dana perino is sitting patiently waiting for her partner for return. >> dana: i think you got it at the board. i don't think there is anything i would know that you don't know. people love it when you are at the board. >> bill: we have 15 hours. it would be interesting if you key on a lot of these countie

this was a huckabee/santorum/cruz county. this was cruz's best county in the state.mp got buried here. they're small, rural, generally all over the state where desantis has to overperform if he's going to have a surprise statewide. the other type of county where donald trump struggled in 2016 was very different, more secular, more professional class, higher income, suburban, urban. a good way to look at it, let's take story county, trump's second worst county in 2016, finished with 15%. marco rubio won this county. it has the second highest concentration of residents with college degrees of any county in the state. that's the other kind of county that trump struggled in in 2016, the urban/suburban, lots of college degrees, higher income counties, trump struggled there. those are the counties when we look at the polls that nikki haley seems to do poised to do best in. tonight you want to look for nikki haley, what is she doing in story county, polk county where des moines is, dallas county, huge suburb outside of des moines. those are the kinds of places haley needs t

this is another one of those counties -- huckabee, santorum, and cruz.w is winning here overwhelmingly. desantis probably wants to be in the 30s here. now we've got 10% of the vote in state-wide. and as you can see, desantis has jumped over haley. we check a second to see what just came in here. it was what? okay. i can't quite here. but anyway, we got -- oh, mississippi river county just came in. yeah, clinton county. so, yeah, trump continuing over 50% here. expect -- these numbers, i think, are going to back and forth. when you get more numbers in, this number is going to go up. when you get more rural counties in, this number is going to go up. and more to the point, this number is going to come down because haley doesn't seem to be doing well in the rural areas right now. >> thinking about what happens after this and how many tickets out of iowa there are, as they say, i feel like i can't imagine what happens next for nikki haley because i don't think she needs iowa. it would be great and it would give her a lot of big momentum. let's say nikki hale

rick santorum was down in their head at around 15%.if you're following the pattern here, what makes iowa an interesting place to start the race, and people of debated back and forth about whether this is the right way to do it, but we're dealing with what's gonna happen a week from now. we're dealing with the actual way this works. and it's gonna be iowa again. guess what happened despite romney's big lead? >> it is not too early for the santorum campaign, folks, to be declaring a huge and somewhat unexpected victory here. >> as he the great contender? who is rick centaur? is he the guy movement conservatives can finally radley around to defeat mitt romney? >> game on. [applause] thank you so much, iowa. >> so pleasant. game on, and thank you. now, that doesn't tell you who's ultimately gonna win the nomination or the election, but it reminds you that, again, the narrow point i'm making, in a beltway crew of reporters and pundits, seems to habitually forget or never learn is, the pre-iowa polls don't always tell you much. in fact, they

mike huckabee in 2008, rick san tor up in 2012. 42 of the 99 counties in iowa were huckabee, santorumes. donald trump lost iowa in 2016, lost to ted cruz. one of the big reasons was evangelicals were not yet really on board with donald trump. so places that were looking that fit that mold, a pretty big one in northwest iowa is sioux county. this was actually in 2016. i'll show you the results. a win for ted cruz, it was donald trump's worst county in iowa in 2012. he only got 11% of the vote right here. so in counties like this we want to see two things we're looking for tonight, number one, has trump improved, the polls certainly suggest he has. maybe the question is how much has trump improved with evangelical voters since 2016. polls indicate this is now a core part of his base. the county like sioux and these other 41 huckabee, santorum cruz counties are going to tell that story. the second story they're going to tell is does ron desantis have a chance of pulling any kind of a surprise here tonight? those counties, those heavily evangelical counties, he's gone after the evangelica

yes, rick santorum was behind and passed mitt romney in 2012, but the lead was nothing like that. it was not 28 points. that is not insurmountable. nothing is insurmountable in politics. but it would shock the world if somehow trump didn't win. one interesting point, though, you heard dana there, you were talking about how donald trump is saying, don't be complacent, people, get out and vote. i think he said, go out and vote even if you're sick. i need you to go vote. they were so confident. the haley movement at the end, it's no dramatic, nowhere close to trump. but people who support haley have spent about $8 million since january. pro-desantis, about 6 million. trump, about 3.6 million. they entered the year thinking, we got this. and in the last couple of days, they're smart. they're well organized. the president saying, don't get complacent. they're trying to tell people, please, the organization matters. if you're afraid to go out and drive yourself, we'll do it. can the other campaigns match that? 24 hours from now, we'll be filling this in. >> not just getting people on th

huckabee, santorum, crews. none of them got close to the nomination. in 2020 trump was running as an incumbent. in the past, the recent past, we have not seen that connection but now we have a huge trump lead in iowa. but there is no guarantee because iowa can be a funny place because of that low turnout. >> so what else are you predicting tonight? >> we want to see by how much trump wins. the 50% threshold has been discussed. how much will he be below it. if he does, what does it mean there? and how much momentum will that person have going up against trump. there is a lot of math going on here. all kinds of it. the question is, how will these things role? we are looking for momentum at the end of the day. trump does well, momentum. those are the things that we will look at tonight. tonight is the beginning and we have no idea where it happens but we do want to see who walks away with the most. it is like dominoes. >> it will be interesting to see where they land. ambassador haley has been moving up. thank you. >>> the first lady is coming to the bay

[indiscernible] >> my experience in 2015, it was an event for rick santorum.lked a lot about obamacare and how horrible it was, and i could not understand what it was that was so horrible about it, and i asked him, and we went through a be 3, 4, five questions because i could not get the essence of what was so horrible about obamacare, and ultimately, he said if you are stupid enough not to get insurance, that's your problem. and then he said, have i answered your question? and i said yes, you have. critics do you meet other caucus-goers? do you get to know each other? >> [indiscernible] >> good luck. did you expect it to be this cold? >> no.

in 2012 they didn't say santorum could win, and he did.n 2016 they didn't think crews could win and he won. and on monday night this guy is going to win because of you guys. [applause] just like chip roy said, we need a leader and washington, d.c. in the white house again. a leader with a wife and a family we can look up to as a role model again. a leader who has led on every issue we care about, whether it is school choice or parental rights or taking on covid and fa uci, the woke agenda in the schools and corporations. he won by a landslide. that's the type of leader we need because we seen that leadership in our own governor in kim reynolds. [applause] i am thrilled to stand up here with governor reynolds and chip roy and the desantises and say on monday night we will deliver a caucus victory for the next president of the united states, ron desantis. [applause] >> ok, are you ready to caucus for ron desantis? [applause] this is the kind of energy and excitement and motivation we are seeing across the state. this team has the best ground

. >> in the middle of this debate, rick santorum put out a picture of his daughter, who was trisomy 18ny chance that your baby could have survived? >> you can't simply say my child has trisomy 18 so yours would have ended up like this. that's ridiculous. every case was different. ours was extremely, extremely bleak. it was as severe as it gets, basically. >> reporter: they say the holidays with their family gave them time to get back to normal, and they'll soon try to have another baby. molly duane has another abortion case in front of the texas supreme court and she says she is hopeful. >> kate cox didn't prevail. she lost. but did she make a difference? >> absolutely made a difference. she got the health care she needed. she got an abortion. but in terms of big picture, she brought people along on this journey with her and she helped people understand the true human toll that abortion bans take on families. >> reporter: if you could do it all over again, would you do this again? would you go through with the lawsuit again? >> i would. i've gotten to hear a lot of stories, you know, f

. >> love all the stories that look like that is a lot more that look like rick santorum or the judge, winning iowa was just a highlight. -- pete buttigieg, mitt romney was declared the winner but it was found out that rick santorum had ready for more votes or 2020 with the technical glitches that had no clear winner for weeks in iowa. it's about momentum, the conversation can turn on who can exceed expectations. surprise second-place finishes generate attention often, especially gary hart in 1984, pat mckinnon in 1996, even john kerry in 2004, all three men dramatically over performed in the polls and use the momentum to pull off wins in new hampshire. exactly what nikki haley is hoping to do tomorrow and what ron desantis wants to prevent. of course none of those candidates went on to become president i should note but nikki haley is hoping to turn history on it said, the next chapter in iowa will be written tomorrow. the question is what the expectations look like, addiction on all of that and more with the panel right after this. >>> we are just about one hour away from caucus day

if it could determine presidents, we would talk about s santorum, huckabee and cruz. when iowa zigs, new hampshire zags. it's a better bellwether. haley cutting the lead, she is starting to look at the trump vote. she comes out of iowa and new hampshire, she has a shot of winning. >> she is doing well with undeclared, independent voters. everyone wants that. >> right. that bodes well, should nikki haley become the candidate of choice in a general election. but we're talking about a primary. and not all states run their primaries like new hampshire. the polls show her struggling in her home state of south carolina, in a more traditional primary. i agree. she has momentum. particularly, if she gets her other competitors to bow out. chris christie, ron desantis. one-on-one against trump would benefit nikki haley greatly. trump is the one -- nikki haley has the momentum. trump is the front-runner. >> important to think about and what's going to happen next. charlie, tia, thank you so much. the fact of the matter is, nikki haley is on the rise. is it close to ran desantis'

we had rick santorum win the iowa caugcuses and it surprised everybody. polls don't always predikt who the winner will be, but having a substantial ground game in terms of being able to mobilize individuals and energize them around a candidate is important. a as it per pains to governor haley, i don't necessarily think she has a strong base of supporters in iowa when compared to new hampshire. i think the voters are looking for someone like her versus a more conservative individual like desantis. >> a superpac supporting nikki haley put out a new ad airing in iowa. trying to make it out idolizing donald trump, painting him as a father figure. watch this. >> so good. >> make america great again. >> what do you do with that? what do you do with that? what are they trying to do in these final moments with that? >> obviously, it's what they are trying to do is demonstrate a level of closeness between desantis and trump. what they are really a at some level trying to say is that if you're going to -- the reality is that voting for desantis is not a lot differe

in 2012 rick santorum won the iowa caucuses. mitt romney won the nomination. john mccain won the republican nomination in 2008. you have to go back to 2000 to find where the person who won the caucuses was the nominee. that was george w. bush who won 41%. he lost new hampshire to john mccain. iowa not a great predictor of what's to come. >> i love the history. it's fascinating for those of us who are history buffs. walk us through how the caucuses will unfold and what goes on. >> it all begins tonight at 7:00 p.m. central time in all these counties. there are 99 precincts in iowa. you show up at your caucus site. you sit down and listen to presentations from each candidates team. they send surrogates out. they give a speech. that's step one. step two is you cast a ballot. oftentimes you write it down on a piece of paper. there aren't that many people at each site. they can be quite small. you collect the ballots and. step number three, they count them. they count them and call them into a centralized location. cnn will have people at many of these caucus sites

. >> and so i mean, i was just watching him, remembering back in the day with rick santorum, and it went viral, but yet there's no poll, nothing to show him even close. is a surprise possible? could i be that wrong? >>. >> iowa has a history of surprises. the polling were taken before the holiday it's not necessarily, but -- organization matters, so i think amy is right there's no doubt he has more at stake. he's invested more for the better part of a year, so yes, the burden is on him. he's really campaigning aggress inkly, so we shall see. >> amy, do you notice that change? is that having an impact? or is your confidence in our read of what people think? >> you know, jeff knows this very well, too. the register policy comes out about a week before, where we see movement may not be for a while longer. if it shows he's farther ahead than the early polling, it really is a question or not the second-place candidate is whether haley or desantis, and whether that's enough to bring haley into -- with a big head of steam behind her into new hampshire. i think there's something else really impo

same with rick santorum. he won iowa and went nowhere. you have to go back to 2000, you covered this campaign, to george w. bush who had a big victory in iowa and went on to become the nominee and president of the united states. that 41%, john, that he got in terms of his level of support on iowa caucus night is a record in the iowa republican caucuses. one we'll see if donald trump can break tonight. >> let's talk about that. the expectations for donald trump. the "des moines register" poll had him at 48%. that's a high number. >> it is. a lot of people will watch to see if he gets over or under 50%. we'll watching the margin of victory over who comes in second or third. i want to note, if we go to the map in iowa, how will donald trump -- who didn't get close to 50 the last time around, eight years ago. how will he do it? he's looking to boost strength up here with evangelical voters, hard-core conservative republicans. he's looking to perform better than he did in the suburban areas than he did last time. take a look. go back to 2016's

if we're going to determine presidents we could talk about santorum, who or crews none of whom won theation. new hampshire is better bellwether, when iowa zigs, new hampshire zags it's better bellwether, it would seem to me by haley coming to cutting the lead to single digits, she is starting to consolidate some of the non-trump vote. she comes out of iowa in second place she comes into new hampshire with momentum, she has a shot of winning. she has a real shot. >> she's doing well and undeclared independent voters really. everyone wants that. >> that bodes well should nikki haley become a candidate of choice in a general election. but, we are talking about a primary. not all states run their primaries like new hampshire. the polls show hurt struggling in her home state of south carolina, in a more traditional primary. i agree, she has momentum but particularly if she can get some of her other competitors to bow out, the chris christie's, the ron desantis is. she could definitely become the head on one-on-one against trump would probably benefit nikki haley greatly. the other thing is

for republicans, ted cruz in 2016 and rick santorum in 2012 and mike huckabee in 2008. 20% of caucuspublican winners have won the president's seat. a lot of numbers and a lot of low percentages. in light of low percentages, why do we ascribe so much importance to iowa? >> iowa is the heart of the country, usually first up and then new hampshire comes in and selects the new candidate. there is a saying on the republican side, iowa picks corn and new hampshire picks president and that is how it has been for last few years. there is always upset in the making. >> todd: nikki haley, thank you for joining us, i mean, terry shilling. thank you for your time. united and alaska airline grounding boeing 737 max nine jets after this. this terrifying incident happening midflight, section of plane blew out midair. and removing a statue of william penn from a park commemorating founding of pennsylvania. so our nation's problems are solved now. cheryl casone has the details of both stories next. listen, your deodorant just has to work. i use secret aluminum free. just swipe and it lasts all day. s

. >> raymond: he is articulate and smart, rick santorum won, neither became the republican nominee, thatthe party has decided, the majority. donald trump is the one who can gather attention and encapsulate what they are feeling thachl is -- >> kayleigh: we spoke yesterday, cnn poll has nikki haley at 32 and chris christie at 12. she goes up, chris christie says i'm dropping out, i believe desantis support goes to trump. >> harris: iowa voters getting ready for a special sunday night. what some democrats are telling me is and you mentioned democrat support for nikki haley. it is a lot more independents but under trump's team she was most popular on foreign policy. that issue might get some independents. i do not know if it will drive democrats, they will listen to her. she has pulled away from ron desantis and made definite differences between her and trump. i don't know if that sticks with a man with 52%. >> kayleigh: politico says it won't stick, trump has a lock on blue-collar workers. >> emily: that article was fascinating. along class lines and points out haley and desantis are fight

conservatives are very strong, and so you have seen iowa voting for people like mike huckerby or rick santorumst turn and donald trump is the populist candidate. so my guess is that the state will vote very strongly for donald trump on monday, and i agree that he has a very good chance of going on to win the nomination. it has been a fascinating conversation... crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa does do is they say they don't produce a winner but the winner of iowa always makes a final two in the nomination process, no matter how many candidates we start with. so winning iowa is the single most important thing a person can do and finishing second in iowa is the second most important thing a candidate for president can do. ido i do not underestimate its power. they don't always pick the winner but they come close. thank you to you both. it is worth asking how accurate are the iowa caucasus? well, since 1976, only 11 of 19 iowa caucus winners have gone on to secure their party's nomination. among them only three went on to win the us president. in recent history, president joe biden lost th

santorum but i would say that ron desantis has by far built the best organization that i have seen inowa caucuses. >> wow. because ted cruz had a really good organizations. >> and now i would say that desantis is light years ahead . and they have this thing dialed in and the people are turning it out. the people that committed the run for the desantis turnout that it will be a very good night for desantis and i think it was shocked the country. >> in terms of the operation that you have seen, they have done a lot of doorknocking . and do they have a big turnout operation for tomorrow and the weather? >> they have an incredible turnout operation to make sure they remind people to get out to caucus and getting them rides if they need to have rights. it's an incredible organization and we compared one time with ted cruz is a great organization but there fred flintstones and ron desantis is like the jetsons. and we had a poll up about the enthusiasm of various candidates with trump is 88% enthusiasm and 32% for nikki haley. some had pointed to what they believe to be the late surge of mom

. >> iowa is generally known for allowing surprises, barack obama or rick santorum, but mike huckabee trump's dominance seems to be on course to buck that trend, at least according to the in register poll which is pretty tried and true, as he has done before. he has shattered so many other norms. do you see any possible surprises coming monday? >> yeah. we usually pack a surprise in there somewhere. i think you got two campaigns, donald trump against his expectations to see whether or not he breaks 50, as he has in polling, and then you've got haley and desantis trying to kind of resolve who gets the chance to take on trump. we usually say there's three tickets out of iowa. i'm thinking there's two because this race has to get down to a one-on-one race or trump versus the field, he's going to win every time. so if there's a path for anyone, they got to do really well in iowa, go into new hampshire with some steam and if someone can knock him off there and it looks like haley has the high hand in new hampshire, that's the only thing i can see change the dynamic of this race in any sign

ran santorum not even a full percentage point, 0.1%. mike huckabee had a pretty big win by iowa standards, over 9%. george w. bush, even bigger, 10%. bob dole, 3%. and then bob dole in 1988, even bigger. i don't think you go all the way back to bob dole, jeff zeleny, but you started covering it back in 2000, right? >> the bush campaign. i was looking back at that this morning, the same morning you were breaking out those boots. george w. bush won in iowa, 41% of the vote. i'm not sure history is our best guide for this. there's a former incumbent president who's running. one thing has been stable throughout the turn of the season in iowa, from spring to summer to fall, now back to winter, is donald trump has had this commanding lead of this race. so, yes, his campaign is pointing to that 1988 figure with bob dole, but that is not the expectation. the reality is the final "des moines register" poll yesterday, the gold standard of polling, showed him 20 points up. he doesn't necessarily have to hit that, but 12 points would be considered

rick santorum did it, worked out well for him. >> years ago i worked for dick gapheart. he went to all 99 counties. we remember that presidency, right? bob dole, who won iowa handily as the republican nominee who won iowa, he didn't get to be president either. it's not very -- in fact, last time -- 2016, mr. trump lost iowa narrowly and then won new hampshire by 20. so, i think anna's right. the showdown is going to be haley and mr. trump in new hampshire. and there, the bar should be very high for donald trump because he won there the last time by 20. he's never won the iowa caucuses before. he's likely to win them. so, he should have very high expectations in new hampshire. i think haley -- she's very well positioned to go gunning for him in new hampshire, where the electorate is far larger as a matter of turn out and far more moderate. a lot of independents vote in new hampshire. that's very good for governor haley. ron desantis, i mean, believe me, he is right now just googling cheap airfares back to tallahassee. >> molly, he was saying on cnn earlier today, no, no,

but rick santorum, i was hoping a guy back then who no one thought stood a chance.and lo and behold, he came from nowhere to win iowa caucuses. so it could happen. i think it's probably unlikely it's going to happen. i think after iowa, you're going to see great pressure on one or two of these candidates, both desantis and haley, to get out if they don't score someplace in the high twenties. i think there's gonna be a great deal of pressure if they're still pulling it 16% of the polls, if they end up with 16% of the vote share on caucus night. it's going to be a big push to get out. >> yes, and we are going to be looking for that. david, thank you so much. alyssa, maggie, thank you so much to all of you for being with us this evening. >> thanks for having me. >> in the meantime, former president trump is now formally challenging the decision to kick him off of the primary ballot in maine, based on the 14th amendments insurrectionist ban. this is one of a growing number of 14th amendment cases working their way through the courts in several states. former federal pro

in 2012 santorum passed romney. but never have have you had a lead like this.ack five months, trump was at 42%. he hasn't spent as much money and yet he goes from 42 to 48% over the course of 5 months. san fits flat lined. haley has some up at the end. do you call it momentum? that's the big debate. she's up to 20%. but this is what's interesting when you look at the poll. we have talked about how trump supporters tend to be more enthusiastic and locked in. 88% of trump supporters say extremely excited about their candidate. you want your people to be enthusiastic. desantis, 62% say very enthusiastic. this is a problem sign for h lee. we'll see what happens some are more moderate republicans. they are not usual caucus goers. if they are not that enth enthusiastic and it's horrible o out, do they show up? >> thomas joins us now. i wonder what are this election is really about, because trump is so far ahead it's very difficult to see either of the two coming close. is it about come ing second? >> thanks for having me. it's great to be with you. i think that it is

you can talk with rick santorum, ted cruz, mike huckabee. so no matter what happens, i suspect that something will happen monday in iowa that will have us turning our heads. >> and a continuation of your, you know, i guess analogy to disney, it is like a disney ride. it is like space mountain, you never know what is coming around the next corner. >> maybe this is thesis the fro version. >> that's right. let's talk about the weather. here you are in colorado, you know what the elements can do and the unpredictability of it. but as it pertains to iowa and the blizzard conditions, and we talk about how it is a big investment for these iowa caucusgoers, it is not just showing up, but it is investing a lot of time and it is the journey in getting there. how much of an impact do you think it will have on turnout? >> well, this is the perfect acid test really for these candidates. as you said, i'm in colorado at 10,000 feet with no electricity, so i'm in a hockey rink so that we can do this. but in iowa, this means that these candidates voters have

you saw it with rick santorum in final weeks really start to rise in 2012 for example. nothing is impossible, and the caucuses are a very unique part of american politic, because of how they are conducted, but again, just seeing what we have seen on the ground here, and heard what we have heard on the ground, it does not seem like any big surprises, but i love the news, so fingers crossed, because it would be fun to cover if they were thrown some curveballs. >> touche. jackie, what are you making for the calls for chris christie to drop out of the race, and of course, the new hampshire governor sununu saying that he is backing nikki haley in the primary, and so what is the signal to you? >> so, christie has indicated that he would not drop out, but you have kind of saw this coming. you saw it on the horizon, because of haley's rise, and you saw sununu as mentioned endorsed haley, and this big argument that the consolidation could help to boost her potentially, and this is about stopping the former president trump's momentum, and she is right now the only candidate of th

i was there with rick santorum and i was there with ted cruz. say ron desantis has built by far the best organization i have ever seen in the iowa caucuses. >> because ted cruz had a really good organization. >> he really did. as a matter of fact, i would say cruz had the best one that i've seen eight years ago, but now desantis is light years ahead of cruz, and they've got this thing dialed in. i believe that people are going to turn out. the people that have committed to caucus for the ron desantis turnout will be a very, very good night for ron desantis and i think it will shock the country. >> in term of the operation that you've seen, i know they've done a lot of door knocks. i've heard different numbers, but a huge number of door knocks. do they have a bilge tg turnout operation tomorrow to drive people it caucus sites? >> they have an incredible turnout operation, all of the way making sure that they're reminding people to get the caucus and getting them rides if they need to have rides. it's an incredible organization. as a matter of fac

you see them there, ted cruz in 2016, rick santorum in 2012, and going back to mike huckabee in 2008, where i first met you, i think. as of now, majority of your fellow evangelicals seem to be rejecting those traditional conservative candidates and supporting donald trump. how do you explain that? >> well, what i said frequently is my polls don't match the polls because that means if i talk to my base, every other person would have to tell me they're voting for donald trump. that isn't the case right now. they're very appreciative of all the things he did when he was in office, whether it's staying up for the sanctity of human life, appointing three justices. moving the embassy to jerusalem, but they follow up with a but. but we need to find somebody who can win in 2024 and then lead on day one and lead for two terms. and that's usually when they're landing for ron desantis. i see ron desantis really going to be able to outperform his expectations on monday night. >> you wrote a piece for the des moines register that said in part, my endorsement along with my vote for desantis come fr

was it -- >> yeah, huckabee, santorum. >> huckabee won in 2008. santorum won in 2012. ted cruz won in 2016. you go back to 1988, you have televangelist pat robertson beating the sitting vice president of the united states. george h.w. bush. i went back last night and looked at the news coverage. "l.a. times" quoted young george w. bush saying, "we got whipped." they did. but we're going to be reading a lot of exit polls. people will be saying, "oh, my god." no doubt, the republican party nationwide is not the party of reagan anymore. not even close. not even the party of george w. bush. but this is a radical, in many ways, a radical electorate if y. again -- >> oh, the exit polls. >> again, they have set up, once again, donald trump, their weakness candidate, to go to the general election. a great night for donald trump given the fact that desantis wasn't pushed out of the race and haley wasn't pushed out of the race. so these two continue splitting the anti-trump vote in half, and donald trump loves that. >> you're exactly right. donald trump could not have asked for

. >> iowa likes surprises including huckabee and santorum.ear the weather has shocked with donald trump clearly aware of turnout risks. >> you cannot sit at home. if you are sick as a dog, even if you vote and then pass away, it is worth it, remember? >> indeed some like this prompt supporter may not vote. >> i'm thinking about it. millions of dollars and a year of campaigning but it is the air above iowa that could determine if the republicans have a real race for president. if the temperatures drop a few more degrees this will be the coldest iowa caucuses on record. amna: the big questions tonight in these frigid temperatures are turnout and expectations. what is your reporting telling you? >> ron desantis has the biggest ground game here and he is counting on that to get his voters out. but when i go to his events i have seen many undecided voters. or they were handing out yard signs at his events and people were not picking them up. nikki haley has the smallest operation but she has momentum. czar turning her way. the question is if she h