and of the deep sea there to find oil the some some scientists think it's another saudi arabia. or brazil it's be all is there it's a political question of whether the anglo-american oil giants and the governments behind them the military are going to let the let these countries develop for their own use. this is political is a good decision this is it it's a cheat a logical question those fields you describe are at the very edge of technological capacity and they may defy even the most strongest political will to do so or even on the monitors were doing or less. the peak oil thing is a myth that was created by more importation of bernstein are all the oil giants a good book a maximum prices and you can very very reality and you've been very patient go right ahead of the head. thank you a lot of projections about all demand kind of discount how much demand will be coming from china over the next twenty or thirty years and i think they're assuming a wealth growth in china because of course china wants a lot more energy they're going to import a lot more oil and if they do if they

the stern saudi arabia is a major oil fields are in saudi arabia but it's bahrain it's connected by a fifteen mile cars way it is majority shia and so one one can see that there can be unrest serious unrest in this in the eastern provinces called the eastern province of saudi arabia that could happen saudi arabia is the linchpin of the global oil market it provides ten percent of global oil and in addition it has the majority of excess supply of the eighty six or eighty seven million barrels of oil that are you today. it has an additional four livia goes off the market saudi arabia can come in quickly and compensate for that so if there is an arrest in saudi arabia people who are are going to be traitors specifically will be very very worried is saudi arabia going to be able to provide that ten percent and can provide provide that spare capacity and ammonium mean that the oil price today brant the european benchmark went to one hundred almost one hundred dollars that's its highest price in two and a half years since. the financial crisis. you know take your gas one hundred ten one hun

have the eastern province of saudi arabia that would be crucial we see what happens right know i am a little bit less about it about muslim brotherhood will come back to that one i'll give you my d.s. and sway more but it about all my soul amen and to the extent what comes out of egypt is actually the second a fallback position and military dictatorship that's what we have right now about how that will develop we'll see internees yeah it is not that stark not that strong but still very much of the old regime in power which so as far as i can understand is a question of sacrificing the top the names of famous ones and then trying to see if they settled back because it is very interesting here i have if i go to harold here where you're going to hear older i mean there's a good point there is that the militaries are still very much in control and if you think that the united states is good it's going to find a new part new partners to replace the fallen dictators i mean we we knew about mubarak we knew about ben ali we knew what kind of people they were but they are also had the military

was that one right well there are number eight but the shoe throwing has already started in saudi arabia and it's coming from an unlikely place if you look at this next headline report saudis warned obama not to humiliate mubarak so king abdullah basically threw it to barack obama on a telephone call the twenty ninth of january where king abdullah reportedly told president obama not to humiliate mubarak and warned that he would step in to bankroll egypt if the u.s. withdrew its aid program worth one point five billion annually bankrolled with money he made from selling gasoline to obama's consistency and in the us exactly but the only reason why he his family his kingdom is able to be worth a trillion dollars that's because the u.s. military obama. i'm a is the commander in chief of the u.s. military they secure those oil rights for this elite group of seven thousand princes and princesses who defraud the rest of their population yeah he's obsequious i don't know why i mean we thought it was just like a little bit of awkward this twenty thousand from the king chorus why is he doing this

you always want to invade iraq iran let's invade saudi arabia excuse me you talked about invasion not i we should be helping the young people we should be helping the opposition with communications equipment there are many many things that we can do we can our president unfortunately has not talked about this our president unfortunately has supported. what he has said has been supportive of the iranian regime and not the iranian people hair on the whole world this interview on the rant why don't we were all citizens of out of iran wow i asked you to come on this program to talk about north africa excuse me excuse me you have the gulf you have out of saudi arabia and i would agree with you that look the fact that. matter is that the eastern province of saudi arabia are overwhelmingly shiite were the oil is is shiite and these provinces were stolen by the white house because who run that country in one thousand zero two these people don't want to live in one house but stand they don't want to live in saudi arabia that's why i am an arguing if there was a free government in iran it would

matter is that the eastern province of saudi arabia are overwhelmingly shiite were the oil is is shia eat and these provinces were stolen by the wahabi to run that country in nineteen zero two these people don't want to live in a stand they don't want to live in saudi arabia that's why i am an arguing if there was a free government in iran it would be a natural our by the forces of freedom for you to the united states the west i know the west is hated by in my the other speaker here i love the west thank god because at least and for those for you think the people in the greater middle east love the west for what it's done over the last four decades harold. do you think the people in central asia love the russians or the people in prayer. change the sound you can just all shades of the city against for years me and millions of probably people from central asia come to russia to work come on harold get clued in here ok and you throw them out of moscow is what you do think they're coming every single day here and being why are you changing the subject why do you have always exactly the s

i suppose are these convention weapons being supplied as a thought to saudi arabia other countries to persuade them not also to go the nuclear route so we've seen iran going on one of the responses could be i suppose for them also it's considered taking the nuclear option and i suppose the u.s. could justify its position in terms of where we're providing this conventional armory as a sort of a fourth of a as a means to sort of say ok we're going to more than guarantee your security in conventional terms please don't go the nuclear route so one could perhaps see that dimension there but certainly you would raise the question of the amount of weapons being supplied to the gulf cooperation council states not just saudi arabia but we've noted the united arab emirates as a as a major importer recently as two others also talking about increasing their systems pose for the fence with regard to the fence systems and with comedy aircraft that have long straight capabilities so i suppose you know you would be worried if you were in iran surrounded in that neighborhood to determine if i could go

saudi arabia that would bring saudi arabia right up to its capacity to to substitute the volume then you would see i'm not sure two hundred twenty i think that's probably an analyst trying to get headline but maybe one hundred fifty that that which is still pretty high i want to say on this you mentioned saudi arabia and they really kept calm promising to kick up oil production i know you've written about the fact they already have but to what extent can they keep doing this i mean if there's an arrest continue it . this is the this is the question one one question that i'm exploring today is why is saudi arabia so nontransparent the the single fact that has that has allowed or oil prices to go through the roof over the last week and then all the way down which we've seen since the end of the day yesterday is this question can saudi arabia really replace the volumes and your question even if it does replace the iranians or how long can it do it and then a third question could the unrest that we've seen in neighboring bahrain wash over into the eastern province of saudi arabia where a

when all is said and done, osama bin laden has not been an anomaly in saudi arabia. ather he is the poster boy for its educational systems, successors. for chilly for the united states and the west, bin laden has matured as intemperate, not the saudi monarchy and the muslim brotherhood, offensive and intolerant ones. even with these differences, however, the saudi's overseas missionary activities are an innocent will be to al qaeda's work notational military and media activities. your ex-patriot saudi preachers, islamic ngos and direct funding by local islamic organizations, studies have treated muslim communities in most areas of the world that are alienated from and even hateful toward west. and so these communities are congenial environments for hosting al qaeda presence in the balkans, india and bangladesh, and the north caucasus and south asia, north america and europe and sub-saharan africa, these preachers, ngos and doses of saudi cash have for decades prepared the ground for al qaeda and its allies. the saudis realized this? of course they do. you must always

ultimately we have to work out what the military power is backing and of course client states like saudi arabia puts him in a difficult position what are they going to do is niño going to intervene to stop the saudi rulers from bombing their own people with the rights up like the others do. and i know as you've spoken a lot about the might of the u.s. military industrial complex i went through what role it plays in nato is geographic expansion and widening scope of operation lazy just as it does everywhere here in the united states we very carefully have cited defense contracts in every gresham a discreet united states and now this has expanded into hungary poland the czech republic they're well getting a piece of the action but it's not really with people who these countries that are getting a piece of the action that's a very small. norman clips who are with them that is benefiting from this and so yes i mean the bottom line is that the u.s. economy and increasingly these other economies are inextricably linked to the profit taking in so-called defense activities except how much of it really

our guest tonight was recently in egypt and saudi arabia. he is the chief executive of pimco, the world's largest bond fund. joining us now, mohamed el- erian. great to see you again. >> thank you. >> susie: let's start talking about saudi arabia. do you think that there's a risk of the revolt in the middle east spreading to saudi arabia? >> it's possible but not probable. in the sense that saudi arabia is a higher per capita income. as you just noted king abdullah is trying to get ahead of this process by recognizing that people are worse off because of higher commodity prices and higher food prices. and saudi arabia is able to pre-empt, if you like, much of the, plus it's a monarchy, plus it has legitimacy in terms of... so i think we'll see more generally going forward is a lot more differentiation within the middle east and north africa. >> susie: meanwhile investors and traders are factoring in a lot of risks. we saw oil prices getting up to the $100 level. do you think that this is the new level for oil? or is it temporary? >> i think

i believe they were traveling for pilgrimage to saudi arabia and as soon as they heard about the newshey came back and -- i'm sure i'm going to assume that their family as well needs to see the footage because i don't think any human would do that. any human can't do that. i don't know if they have hearts anyway. >> what do you think might happen after the funeral, said? because there's going to be a lot of emotion and presumably anger as well. >> people here are peaceful. as for police, nothing is going to happen. nobody is going to go anything. -- do anything. they're going to start shooting and chant for the fall of the regime, yeah, but they're not going to break anything. they're not going to do anything. they're going to protest marching from his house, which is a mile from his origin village, to the graveyard. they're going to march there. that's what i would expect. as for police to be present there, i can tell you they're going to be violent. there are going to be clashes. i'm expecting nothing, just like the second martyr who fell down, appearing in the first funeral of the

gets one point eight million barrels more saudi arabia that would bring saudi arabia right up to his capacity to to substitute a volley and then you would see i'm not sure two hundred twenty i think that's probably an analyst trying to get headlines but maybe a hundred fifty that which is still pretty high why is saudi arabia so nontransparent the single factor that has that has allowed our oil prices to go through the roof over the last week up and then all the way down which we've seen since the end of the day yesterday is this question can saudi arabia really replace those volumes and your question even if if it does replace the volume's or how long can it do it and then a third question could the unrest that we've seen in neighboring rain wash over into the eastern province of saudi arabia where all of their oil major oil fields are located look at the situation in those days it was the. right in the middle of this war that the united states was embarking on in iraq it was it was during the. war on terror that is a very high and. and here was a state libya willing to renounce wea

very clear example is saudi arabia where for years the u.k. has made saudi arabia its one number one target customer where we can see it very clear thora terry but. it's. but it's very clear a repressive state that has used those weapons and human rights abuses last year in the city international pointed out that fighter jets sold to saudi arabia in the massive. every gram in the eighty's sold from the u.k. and b. a systems to saudi arabia were probably used to get instant civilians in the cross border conflict. between saudi arabia and yemen and probably use in human rights abuses that just just police is not this is not new i mean they should know that these weapons are going to be misused if they sell them you make a very persuasive argument and indeed the british government has responded today they say there's no evidence that you made manufactured tear gas was used in this crackdown but nevertheless the m. o. d. is now going to review arms exports to britain indeed france has cancelled any arms exports to to bahrain so any l. l. arms expo

occur outside of the inside the kingdom rather to read a final point to make on the symbiotic saudi arabia al qaeda relationship, outside of the arabian peninsula is that saudi activities abroad relief al qaeda of the need to fund, staff and manage a humanitarian educational health services wing like those run by hamas, hezbollah and the muslim brotherhood. and therefore, bin laden is to focus on spreading his organization and planning military activities. bin laden, al qaeda and their allies, and those they inspired are the third of the persian gulf threats and the most dangerous to the united states. the are the most dangerous not because they are more powerful than the united states, nor because they are supported by all muslims. they are most dangerous, they are the most dangerous threat to america because the u.s. bipartisan governing has uniformly refused to accept reality. from the first bush to clinton to george w. bush to barack obama, americans have been told they were at war because al qaeda and its allies are motivated by hatred for liberty, way of life and space institutions.

amount of oil and also people were concerned that that any kind of revolution might spread to saudi arabia and in that country if anything was to affect the oil supply there that would be devastating for the world which relies on twenty five percent of its oil supply coming from saudi arabia so these were the concerns that sent a spike in oil last week index which is really what impacts more of america's oil usage and has a greater bearing on the u.s. that breach one hundred and oil broker that i spoke to said that everybody was freaking out that investors were rushing and rushing and rushing to cover their investments because this was unexpected and unprecedented and not something that they were ever expecting or elles been trading and eighty eight to ninety four range and then it went up to ninety six and then it's breached one hundred now it's back down to ninety seven and then with crude which is something that has a greater bearing on europe for example that's one fall which is also high that's gone from in the low seventy's to one hundred twelve in the month of february so we're seei

you know what they call shiites saudi arabia? >> sand -- ooo. >> also became -- the monarchy in bahrain. >> one other slight problem. the united states has extremely close relations with the security services in these countries. that is where we get our intelligence in the war on terror and al qaeda. we get our intel did from their secret police and their intelligence. the very people who are keeping down the revolution are our buddies, pals, and friends, the people who help keep us safe. >> it is a terrible dilemma. bahrain is the worst because it is a sunni dictatorship and shiite majority. a small island, home of the fifth fleet and between saudi arabia and iran. iran had -- iran claimed it just as iraq claims kuwait. if this succeeds, it would come -- could become a province of iran. it would be a tremendous security threat right in the middle of the gulf. >> doesn't it strike you as schizophrenic? it almost seems there is some sort of power struggle within the ruling body, within the palace, so to speak, of what is going on?

one doesn't really know what to say i mean let's start with the most obvious example saudi arabia the biggest strongest richest ally of the united states in the middle east except for israel it's saudi arabia now saudi arabia doesn't even profess democracy it doesn't have a single ounce of democracy in its constitution or in its political practice and yet that country is always cited as the as you know as the americans great solo which of course that is the american simply turned a blind eye blind eye to the nature of the regime there but there is another aspect to these double standards which is important to mention and that is the flirtation with the forces of islam it's important to understand as we discuss the relationship between authoritarian regimes often military backed in the middle east on the one hand and the forces of political islam on the other it's important to understand that the americans are capable of playing both sides of that game. american military strategist into story never look back says the people may want change in the middle east but the foundations for dem

saudi arabia had influence over sunnis. the year this was formed with saudi money and turkish organization, turkey helped create the art chela and there was pressure coming in from different countries in the region, who are funding some of the sunni parties in the last, not to compromise and not to sell out, but of course they would sell it eventually because maliki would never give up power. so it's better to be in the government and outside of it, better to be an ascent outside the tent. i don't think it's that big of a threat. i think you do want them in the government. when they were marginalized, they were pushed to violence. since 2003 they want to be part of the system. what they presented isn't a strong ideology. it's more anger. in the 50s and 60s the revolutionary brought people back to congress. in the 90s following the american occupation, they are really poor, angry people, they granted the occupation and anti-federalist, antiestablishment. the occupation is more or less gone. it's hard to find americans to kil

what if this spreads to other countries, some place like saudi arabia? >> reporter: for the oil markets, what's important is not just the quantity of oil, it's the quality. libyan crude is sweeter and contains less sulfur than saudi arabia's, so it's easier for european refiners to use libyan oil to make diesel fuel. >> it's more efficient for a lot of refineries, especially in europe, to run lower sulfur crude in order to get lower sulfur diesel products. it's simply more efficient. if you take a lower sulfer crude, you are simply getting more barrels of low sulfur diesel, which is in higher demand over there. >> reporter: the u.s. and other nations also have the option of dipping into emergency oil reserves to drive down prices. but oil analyst faisel khan does not think it's necessary. >> there seems to be plenty of crude oil in the u.s. you've got plenty of crude coming down from canada. u.s. domestic production has been growing, mexican production has kind of stabilized, and we continue to get imports from venezuela. so, net-net, i think the u.s. is

. >> i wonder if we have time to talk about saudi arabia. it has been listening a bit, quietly and at its own pace. clearly, it is aware of what is going on in the world. can the saudi arabian sketched by with their methodical, slow progress in expanding democracy and human rights? or do they have to step it up and risk a revolution? >> it is a great question. from the perspective of american interests, as important as he did is, saudi arabia is even more important. what you are seeing in saudi arabia is exactly the point you are making. king abdullah said to his people, i understand your unhappiness. i am going to make changes to accommodate you. they are not as far and as fast as saudi arabia liberals would like them to go. you are seeing another constant of human history. people do not like to revolt. it takes a lot to drive people to evolution. if the government says to the people, we understand your plight and we are going to change, that is all the people need to hear. it is almost like the tortoise and the hair. -- the hare. it is not