savita: it works during the tech bubble. this is an important point because the last time this framework was as negative as it is today was in 1999, another period where we were all calling out the primacy of technology. i think that today, the bubble is even more dangerous because it is not about growth stocks, which is where tech ultimately has its multiples. this is what scares me, that the s&p 500 has essentially turned into a 36 year zero coupon bond. if you look at the duration of the market today, it is basically longer duration than it has ever been. but that means is that any move higher in positive capital to get interest rates, credit spreads, risk premia, that is going to be a huge knock on the market relative to this institute he we have seen in the past. lisa: you did upgrade your forecast, however. why does this not become the bear case you originally saw? savita: i think the market is looking at it in the near-term, but i think our view is earnings have come in a little bit better. companies have been able to

so vita -- savita looking for 4600. look at the labor market. i can give you some data that shows you this labor market is tight. i can give you some data that shows this labor market is loose. that debate is going nowhere anytime soon. tom: the distinction on ecb is simple. u.s., maximum stimulus. ecb, far less stimulus. jonathan: capital economics, their line came out a couple of minutes ago that sums up things perfectly. the ecb slows purchases, but will keep policy ultra-loose. the real test for that is in the italian bond market. the italian bond market is rallying. tom: what does that mean for the bundesbank? jonathan: right now, let's see what you've got. can you make sure the flex ability -- the flexibility in this pandemic emergency purchase program does not get folded into the asset purchase program next year? tom: the smartest thing i've heard, off of sabbatical, just getting back into it, risa, you talked about the pendulum of the s word -- lisa, you talked about the pendulum of the s word. lisa: just to be clear for jon starts rolli

plus, is the entire market about to flip on it head savita says it is. she'll tell you why and what to buy now. >>> later, speaking of buying, buy your christmas gifts now we'll tell you what just happened with nike you, dear shopper, have been warned we're going to get to all of that on this big hour, but we have to start with a big day for big oil. crude oil back above 70 bucks a barrel as demand rises, production stays flat and the u.s. dollar gains. this pushed a big day for the oih. oil services etf jumping almost 5% some beaten up stocks going along for the ride double digit gains for little known names like rpc and helix energy but it wasn't just them showing strength it was more broad-based. and the energy sector was the best performing group in the s&p 500 today by far but of course, we have seen this before in june, the oih was at $240 everything looked great. only to leave some investors crying in the oil patch as it turned out in a big way. so guy, we'll begin with you, my friend is this bounce maybe the start of a longer lasting love affair?

i wanted to ask savita about something she put out this week because i think it's the most importantioning from mid-cycle to late cycle. and in late cycle there are very specific styles that do extremely well versus the market in particular you talk about high return on equity or high-quality stocks and high-depend stocks and what i think is interesting is that this time around, those stocks are all easily found within tech, whereas in past cycles tech was not really known for high-quality or high-dividend. so what do we do with that c conundrum? >> it's a great question, but i think the answer is, no, you look for your income and your quality somewhere else because, by our lights, tech doesn't actually offer the most attractive dividend yield anymore. the sector has gotten much more expensive. there are better pockets to go to for yield energy and financials i think are much more attractive areas for yield. from a quality perspective, i think the most important barometer to pay attention to is free cash flow and free cash flow yield for energy companies is really starting to hum for

plus, is the entire market about to flip on it head savita says it is.