and also interestingly the loudest voice saying they were all crazy was robert schiller who published a book in march 2000, the moment the stock market started to decline called irrational exuberance making the point that yes stock markets have the habit of calling on these waves of optimism and pessimism. he put out a second edition with a whole new chapter in real estate in 2005 making the same point but the response from most of the economics profession and finance academic send alan greenspan was that markets know what they are doing. yes there is some new stuff happening in the housing market that we have all of these great new derivative instruments that are going to spread the risk and take care of everything. and then it all fell apart and greenspan made his famous admission last fall. he has backtracked a little since then now that the world is less scary than it was november, where he said my world view did not work anymore and intellectual edifice and he was specifically referring to derivatives has collapsed he said. so, and i'm going to go to questions in a minute here bu

. >> we saw a property values and residential and commercial and the case the best schiller numbers came out. we are seeing some improvement. we see demand which hurt cash flow of these businesses. it affects the credit standing of existing borrowers and it has hurt the credit standing of prospective new borrowers. as well as loan demand. as all this normalizes, the business -- the industry will be in a better position when credit demand comes back. cushioning the impact where it is appropriate is something that is positive, that the regulators are doing. >> do you have an estimate for the fourth quarter and for next year in terms of the number of institutions failing? >> the only projections that we have made public is the five- year estimate of losses to the deposit insurance fund which is $100 billion. we have not made any estimates of numbers of banks by any different time periods. >> [unintelligible] >> when we made the projection of $100 billion, most of that loss would project to occur in 2009 and 2010. in terms of the amount of loss, it would be similar in -- next year as it has