the research and asset price bubbles schiller has said he's concerned about drastically rising prices in markets like brazil. he said i'm most worried about the boom in the u.s. stock market because the economy is still weak and vulnerable. schiller said he's not sounding the alarm yet but avoids financials and technology. >>> many americans do their investing exclusive italy through mutual funds and retirement plans and some of them are increasingly worried that 401s will not carry them through retirement. some are moving through funds in rand out like a trader buys and sells stocks. this is getting a thumbs up from some investors but a thumbs down from financial investors who guide money. >> she figures she'd need 4 million to have a financially secure retirement. >> top of my list, china, new zealand, africa, antarctica, i want to be able to go freely and not pinch pennies. >> sandy who does not believe social security will be around has been saving money for nearly 20 years. even though she paid close attention to the markets and actively managed the fund she realized the rate her

gerri: you know, let me read what schiller said, the boom in u.s.arket makes me most worried also because our economy is steal weak and vulnerable, the world is still very vulnerable to a bubble. how is this going to evidence itself? how are we going to see this? true, retailers are the last to jump in the pool, but then, what starts happening after that? >> when does the market correct in your vie >> i think, it is a big give 20 between a market that is correcting and a market that is a bubble. correcting is 5 or 10% decline, it will be a tremendous opportunity you will be able to pick unthe intels and ibm's. i am a fan of schiller, if you listened to him before 2009, you made a lot of money, but after that, if you have done the opposite what he has predicted, you may have doubled o tripled your money, but i have got it wrong too in the past. you were talking about low interest rates and what the feds are doing once that tames that bubble. and when it ends you see real destruction. >> what makes you think it going to end? >> janet yellen needs to c

civilian pilot and two police officers cross landed on the roof of the pot the chance of deceit schiller ex helicopter and a gaping hole on the roof of the building. the pub in central glasgow was crowded with the camera lots. want a custom us into the salon mornings. then the cloud of dust feel that i could do everyone quickly escape outside. local police on investigating the use of text the japan center on an impressive ride in india for historic state visit to japan and india on mock the sixty of the industrial diplomatic relations blocks now the imperial couple arrived in new delhi and stuff like that while welcomed by prime minister of mammon pounds in its defence by the japanese emperor augustus that the country. wendy and brian ambrose arrived at the hotel employees present them in traditional indian style this is the couple's france officials as umpteen gas since nineteen sixteen when they were traveling as crown prince and princess. that's a deal to stay in new delhi on kilda center for spamalot and welcomes the money with christ and not the duty carol couple well to topple into

what do you make of schiller's remarks? he is a smart guy, a nobel prize-winning economist. >> putting a guy with university of marylander education against a mow bell prize winning economist. that is tough argument. to be perfectly honest with you, i understand a lot of people are frustrated that the market is moving away from fundamentals. the market is forward looking mechanism. we're looking for solid earnings expansion that could come up next year. a lot of times some of the best moves -- david: that's a very important point because we do mention the fear attached with rates going higher but some cases, as long as it's orderly there are some industries, particularly small regional banks that could do very well if interest rates kick up a bit, right? >> we saw the yield curve get very steep over past couple months given what is wrong in the rate pits. that is tailwind for financials. you hit the nail right on the head, small cap banks, regional banks, they're heavy in assets this is big earnings catalyst for them having

people are listening to robert schiller and coming behind robert schiller saying robert schiller is actuallys wrong when he is talking about a correction around the door or down the road, 2 to 3 years, roading correction so what they are saying is the operating profit margin, here is what is key, record highs of 1.6% for the s and p 500. if you referred to the average you will see a 20% correction down. profit margin will be back to where they were historically. to henry is a and i can no longer say i am bearish, willing to underperform when market crash but that could be in three years and he went through to and overweight into equities in his fund as of september, 64% failure of equities. adam: don't invite them to a party. lori: as we do every 15, let's get back to the floor of the stock exchange to hear what the buzz is all about today with the dow down 120 points, pharmaceutical company's new joint venture making news. >> a lot going on on wall street, looking at a calm but deal today and if you own these pharmaceutiials today you are doing some happy dance because the stock is up 110%,

the s&p case schiller index finding prices of homes up almost 20% across cities in america.he one-month gain is just .2 of a percent, s&p saying that shows the boom is now beginning to fade. >>> a memorial in a california park paying tribute to victims of world war ii, but it is also bringing to life a decade's old controversy, and now japanese leaders say it should be removed. >> reporter: it's a simple statue of a teenage girl sitting in a chair, next to herr is an empty chair, although the chair is always covered with flowers, a testament to the continuing emotion this memorial evokes. >> translator: i learned about it in the history class when i was back in in korea, and recently i became more aware of it because of the installation of the statue. >> reporter: during world war ii, japanese pressed as many as 200,000 women into sex slaves they were called comfort women, many of them teenagers. the bird on her shoulder a symbolic connection between the living and dead. the statute is here because los angeles and some of the surrounding towns have the largest korean populat

but the s&p case schiller index finding home prices up almost 20% from last year, that is the biggestase in almost eight years, but price gains rose just .2 of a percent. >>> now to the story of a very small statute that is sparking a very big controversy. this month leaders from japan urging leaders in california to remove the statute. >> reporter: it's a simple ch statute of a teenage girl. on a recent day a korean family came to see it. >> i learned about it in the history class when i was back in korea, and recently i became more aware about it, because of the installation of the statute. >> reporter: during world war ii as the japanese army conquered korea and other asian countries, they pressed as many as 20,000 women into sex slaves, they were called the comfort women, and a lot of them were girls. the statue represents the girls. the 'empty chair the women who are gone. the statute is here because los angeles and some of the surroundings towns have the largest population of koreans outside of korea itself. >> what has happened has happened. it is the truth, and we want to reme

schiller says three months later h he still has pain on the right side of his body.food inspectors say they are working on making improvements to the way they monitor salmonella contamination in chicken and, again, that the food inspection needs to be more closely watched. >>> all right. turn things over to chief meteorologist jeff ranieri. we're heading toward the weekend now. >> and the hloliday weekend. some people don't have work next week. >> seemed like it was taking so long and here it is. live look outside at san jose. clear skies now leads to a better forecast for friday. you're not going to want to miss what we have coming our way in just a few minutes. >>> in tonight's class action education headlines, growing up muslim in california schools. a new survey of puz limuslim st show while many feel accepted in school, cases o 6 bias and bullying do persist. a study shows 80% of muslim students surveyed in california say they do have a positive school experience, but nearly half say they have been the subject of some form of bullying including one in five young

as we put a more moderate think about the schiller p e*trading six times.ler pe is an average of the have ten years for the s&p 500 divided into the current price. the average is roughly 16 1/2. we're currently at 26. in 1929 the stock market crash that happened here took place at 30. >> was that created by our latest nobel laureate. you're arguing we're not there yet. >> not yet. i do take the argument that valuations do feel a little stretch. only because we haven't had a pull back. haven't had any kind of correction. for anybody that trades stock you're looking for that correction right here. >> we keep harping on twitter. everybody knows what is it. and it captures the imagination and now we've seen this great rally but that is symptomatic in what's going on in some circles. >> absolutely. it has several different hats and symptomatic of the bubble mentality but symptomatic of the volume begets trading elevate. day traders in today, that's a stock they can trade. tesla is another example. even pictures of cars burning at stop signs is not enough to keep

>> case schiller. charles: are you serious?on. >> i want to see if the rising rates are starting to slow the appreciation on the home prices. i would like to see home prices live because iant the bubble. charles: the home of rebound miracle has been foreign money, main street. it might be good from prices level off. >> the mortgage payment goes that the whole percentage from a three to 5% -- it should go down like 10 percent, but people get breezy -- crazy and jump in at any price. would like to see fla prices. you're seeing those. that will be the thing for a 2014. >> for watching. kennedy: citizen, the love of big government or the active being in constant stasis, never moving forward, whether it is a big fat lie being sold as the cause of something awful was in an gauzy or are winning superpower trying to o we in detention. a neurosis and look into this

the biggest single year gain in the s&p case schiller index. age when celine inventory limits the supply of homes. starting tomorrow, people in colorado will be able to legally buy weed. yes, it will be legal and year after colorado and washington voters made the sale legal. according to colorado law, residents with a photo idea can legally buy up to one ounce of pot. those of out-of-state candidate quarter ounce. 2013.pup we are taking a look ahead at the stories that will make headlines in the coming year. joining us is jeff hazell. he is also a strategy consultant for a giant number of fortune 500 companies. probably 501. >> i think that it is right there. first of all, everyone has been talking about mobile for years. this is the most personal device there is in the world. this will be finally the year of mobile. we will be talking about a lot more. companies will take advantage all of this information. you have been seeing this for a long time. services will be available on your phone. click so, number four on your list is a phrase that i

they brought in all the campaign, and it was a divide in both, but uptown reelected schiller. i stand by, and that people in chicago do not get it, but they want independence. that leads me to this point. i still can't quite get my mind around the realization that the people of the city of chicago not only elected mayor five times, but i ask more questions than i answer smghts i usually ask my fellow citizens, who did you vote for? everybody i meet, i ask, who did you vote for? based on the results, i've come to the conclusion that rahm did not win at all. [laughter] the real winner was miguel. [applause] what it is, i think, people of chicago didn't realize who they were voting for or they did not vote, just as bad. so they elected this man whoa is a little to the right of mitt romney. so now what is next? this is a question that is always raced, will be raised in this very room when the program is over. who is going to run? my response is we have to stop looking at the washington model because that presumes a great leader steps forth to lead us out of the promised lain. ther

this is according to the case schiller index.eal estate market will probably get it next boost from gained -- gains in employment. netflix is testing new prices, based on the number of people who use one single account. the plan provides access on as many as four screens, letting household members watch different shows at the same time, but it could cost you more. netflix says it is just in testing phases and the price --ges could rise from 699 six dollars 90 nine cents to $11.99. we turn now to the trends for the new year. we turn to bob rice. from theickards, both same company. with blackstone. jonathan gray was there. blackstone is the biggest landlord in the u.s. and hilton is the biggest hotel company in the u.s. a pretty big play for a pretty big company. >> it was an interesting year for them. and it was interesting about the headline that we just saw. the index is rising. why is that? who is buying those homes? a lot of them are being bought by institutions who are driving the price up very rapidly. a little bitbuy indisc

schiller is copying me. closing bell ringing in 40 minutes. if you work on wall street will the new year be a good one? in the form of a good bonus. you have to buy that lamborghini or the house in the hamptons. or is the question whether you will even have a job. charlie gasparino has exclusive details. and the hottest / sales site on the hottest online sales day of the year. the hottest man the company kevin ryan. he is a serial entrepreneur, chairman of guilt group. he used to run double quick. a fox business exclusive next on the hottest trends. every day 're working to be an even better company - and to keep our commitments. and we've made a big commitment to america. bp supports nearly 250,000 jobs here. through all of our energy operations, we invest more in the u.s. than any other place in the world. in fact, we've invested over $55 billion here in the last five years - making bp america's largest energy investor. our commitment has never been stronger. liz: the majority of wall street employees are free say for the new year. people ar

go back to december 30, 2008, kay schiller home price index reported the largest price top.ome values were on a tear through most of the 2000s, peaked in 2006 but by 2008 had completely burst. the credit crisis that followed the worst american had seen since the great depression. who is to blame for the bubble that caused the crash. john, john taylor you have long pointed to monetary policy under alan greenspan's fed for exacerbating the bubble. your critique of mr. green span and the federal reserve between 2002 and 2005 the fed kept late too low for too long and that created the bubble which in turn led to the massive problems in the economy. that's your basic point? >> it exacerbated the bubble. you can see the bubble started to increase at a more rapid rate around that time. there were other factors. i think lax regulation was another factor. but that monetary impulse was a big factor. >> specifically, you've said -- you said to it me on numerous radio shows and on interviews on this show between 2002 and 2005 fed kept rates too low for too long and that released the for

. >> reporter: rick schiller knows the damages. he wound up in the hospital with severe abdominal pain after eating chicken contaminated with salmonella. >> i thought i wasn't going to make it there for a little bit i was that sick. i was so sick i couldn't move around. i didn't want to talk. i just wanted to lay there. >> reporter: so consumer reports says when it comes to preparing chicken, you can't be too careful. >> our tests did not reveal any better choice despite stop differences among brands and types. you really want to make sure to cook your chicken until it reaches 165 degrees in the center. >> reporter: it's also important to wash your hands well after handling raw chicken and don't wash raw chicken under the faucet. that can spread bacteria and increase your risk of getting sick. now the food and drug administration has just issued some voluntary new guidelines that would limit the way farmers can use antibiotics in chicken and consumer reports says that's a good first step, but much more needs to be done. >>> one gro

i don't tend to use schiller cape.ot suggest using it as a timing tool. >> i guess this all boils down to you trying to comfort, i guess, the investor who may not be involved in this market by saying if you get in here you're not about to be down 10%, 20% for the year? >> i think the likelihood of having a correction here that could be in the mid-single digits not only i think would be appropriate, i would like to see it. i think that's a better kind of market environment that's grinding higher, you take two steps forward, half a step back. i think there has been and maybe will continue to be a risk of a melt up. that's something you don't want. they don't tend to end very well. >> that's for sure. >> kind of a normal correction, i think, would be appropriate and healthy in this environment. >> dennis, briefly, i noticed here you're cautious on some of the sectors including shipping which is where we've started to see a lot more positive vibes lately. is that both a fundamental and valuation story? >> i've loved shippi

i'm at a hotel in schiller park. >> meanwhile, in a room across the haul female undercover post fake ads for sex on backpage and lure johns to the hotel. >> you coming to visit me? i charge $90 an hour for full service. he's calling for a date tonight and wants to know if i do greek which is a common term for anal sex. i'm in the o'hare area. i can't wait to see you. >> female undercovers make contact with the eager john. >> right now he's going to be here in two minutes. >> meanwhile, a male undercover in the room across the hall has a subject under way. >> you're not the police, you got to tell me that, right? that's why i want to give you my number. i don't want your dudes kick in my door. >> the team scrambles for two simultaneous takedowns. >> you good? >> it's always feast or famine. we'll have nothing and make the phone calls and put the ads on and in the space of a half hour we'll have five people show up. it's critical when we take this guy down we bring him in here immediately. >> arresting officers huddle in the next room. eyeballing the john's aprooich in the hallway and

david: final question, is there any chance, and even robert schiller thought there may be a chance that the housing market. is there any chance we go back into those bad old days? i know there are new restrictions buying houses but could housing in any way, shape or form become a bubble in 2014. >> we could have a step back but we'll not see problems of years past. we'll not go back from 2008 and before. we certainly can and we set ourself up to see a slowdown in the market. maybe we have a hiccup. but buying a house today is still great value an opportunity not only as investment but a place to rest your head at night. david: frank, do you agree? >> i agree. there is a difference between a bubble bursting and a cool-down. we certainly see a little bit of a cool-down. that's what we think we'll see. david: we could all live with that. brief an, gary, thanks you guys. we appreciate it. >> thank you so much. we'll see you soon. >> thank you. it is crunch time right now for insurers as the health care industry meets to obamacare rolling deadlines, not in the federal system but in the state

david: bob schiller, the smart nobel prize-winning economist who focuses so much on real estate has expressedhe is not convinced this is happening but expressed some concern whether there is another bubble in the real estate market but also the stock market. but in real estate specifically, have you seen any signs of that at all? i mean you're able to track who your buyers are, what their interests are. you mentioned people, second, third, fourth homebuyers. but do you see any bubble at all in the market? >> no. remember when the bubble hit this country was building two million new homes a year. every blackjack dealer in las vegas was buying three houses. mortgage underwriting was way too easy. today we're at 900,000 new homes per year. we're way below the historic average of 1.5 million new homes. mortgage underwriting is extremely difficult and the builders are not building speck inventory. we're a long way from a bubble. cheryl: one of the things we'll see of course, doug, when we do get tapering from the fed. the plan we all assume will be for interest rates to tick up a little bit. you s

the case schiller housing index has just been released.ctober figures more or less in line, ever so slightly higher than what was expected for this month of october. data. is the raw ever so slightly higher for the month on month composite, one percent versus .9%. before the data came out, futures were indicating a higher open, and that is where they stand now. higherslightly uptake for the s&p 500 futures. keep in mind, we are on the last trading day of 2013. you had a record day for u.s. stocks. the dow is poised to go higher for the year. for 2013.0 is up 29% this hour,shaking heisman trophy winner tim tebow got a new job talking about college football for the soon to be launched sec network, providing analysis for the self eastern conference. he gets to travel to a different campus everyllege week, but it does not preclude them from pursuing opportunities in the nfl. if he wants to keep playing, he has to find a team that will take him on. he was cut from the new england patriots in august. staying at the intersection of jobs and footb

. >> nobel prize winning economist robert schiller is raising concerns about a stock market bull. sunday that the current wall street boom is worry some, because the economy is till weak. it predicted the bubble in his book shows irrational exuberance. >> hilton is looking to make more money when it goes public. the hotel chain now expects to raise $2.37 billion in its initial public offering. previously, hilton said it anticipated gettng $1.25 billion. the price will be priced from $18 to $21 a share. >> holiday shoppers heading on line this cyber monday. >> why a new distillery decided to open up schott shop in detroit. >> the college football playoff system starts next season and now looks like the final year the b.c.s. could have more than its share of controversy. i'll explain later in sports. >> you're looking at a live picture of grand central terminal. 26,000 daily commuters have their trips disrupted today because of a train derailment. with the most interesting people of our time. this sunday, >> i spent my whole life thinking about themes and thinking about how to struc

we have the schiller homes index. at 10 a.m., consumer confidence index.at 2 p.m.. >> i think it will be subdued. since november 15 it has been locked it up. >> let's get to company news. worn buffet betting big on oil transportation. four phone ownership of the denis's pipeline -- for full ownership of the company's pipeline business. that has pipeline operators used in capacity. kurtz is bracing for a battle with activist investors. afterdopted a poison pill unusual activity in the stocks. the right program was not a response to any specific takeover bid or proposal. it the ceo of berkeley says may take a decade to rebuild trust in the bank. anthony jenkins says the public will need to be changed at the bank before it can rebuild trusts following the libor scandal. that is today's company news. >> we will turn to the market here on new year's eve. i have no social life. i will be watching 14 movies this weekend on netflix. brings a lot of changes for netflix. new are trying out a pricing plan based on the number of people who can use an account. this cou

it's a distinction, with what robert schiller is saying here. he's not calling this a bubble. a bubble. if it is a bubble it could end very, very badly as far as financials and the technology and stuart-- [inaudible] >> look at that, live television and we just froze right there. and i think she was about to make an important point, too, let's see if we can get back to her. you want to round out her thought? >> no, i know those are more short-term traders and obviously the more you go up, the more anxiety there is, and no doubt about that. the parallels made to the more infamous bubbles that people lived through aren't there yet. we haven't had any real correction. >> that takes up 34%, that's not a bubble, but that's a big rally. all right, i've got two big retail names and you know them. j.c. penney to start with, i think it's down again, nicole. nicole: 3%, where is the turn around everybody is waiting for? this stock is down 50% this year, the number one loser in the s&p 500. right now, i'm just going to say it, loser. stuart: and we're going to downgrade for urban outfitt

in our headlines this morning, newly named nobel prize winner robert schiller is warning of a u.s. market bubble. schiller said that he believes sharp rises in equity and property prices could lead to a dangerous financial bubble and may end badly. he describes the financial and technology sectors as overvalued and says, i am most worried about the boom in the u.s. stock market. also because our economy is still weak and vulnerable. he's talked about irrational exub ber rangs in the past. when he wrote it last time there were still several years. >> he said that. and in what i read, he said, not yet. i'm not saying we're here yet. >> right. you can't be always right with the timing. he sees stuff starting to build up and he's worried about how it will end. >> now we listen to him more because he has a nobel price. >> and the case shiller index. >> i saw it on one of the aggregation sites. nobel economist. oh, it's shiller. yeah, because he just won. anyway, that gives you some additional -- you think it matters. i -- >> you don't? >> no. >> winning a nobel give you anymore foresite

the case schiller report showing prices up 13% in the last year.ary of 2006 but not all cities fairing the same. some are a better investment than others and our next guest say you should buy in fair neighborhoods and they are here to tell you why. kerri chris is in new york, greg rand in charlotte, n.c. rodney anderson in dallas, texas and bob massey in sin city, las vegas. what is going on? why is vegas the place to buy? >> investors right now are not as aggressive as they were a few months ago when hedge funds were pretty active but what happened as reported prices of gone up so investors have backed off a little bit but those who did buy are now renting out homes which is a big business in our city. the lenders sort of playing a little game because prices are up so they're getting tough on foreclosed properties and short sales. not the same as it was a few months ago but there will be opportunities for investment. cheryl: i won't say as far as prices go year-over-year up 27%, the highest percentage gained. that is happening in las vegas but you

s&p kay schiller says houses rose 13.6% if you compare it to the number a year ago.h continue to show strength. when you compare numbers to the earlier month in september, fwroeth in prices in 18 of the cities on the index, it's slowing down a little bit with san francisco showing prices ticking a little lower. phoenix held on, posting the 25th consecutive increase in prices. prices overall have really enjoyed a strong rebound over the past year. home sales have improved and number of foreclosures on the market have dropped and those two factors have really given a boost to prices. even though mortgage rates have kind of been ocreeping back up, it's very critical to the overall health of the overall economy and improvement in household wealth really can free up a lot of money for homeowners to spend elsewhere. with more houses being built, it adds construction jobs. you see this domino effect. is this momentum going to continue into 2014? at least some experts say yes, even if it is not with quite the same gusto we've seen lately. >> gusto, indeed. alison, thank you

but schiller came out and said he is concerned about a bubble. we were talking about it earlier.re nervous about the market getting to ahead of itself? >> certainly any time someone is calling for above all you have to take notice. they tend to get called prematurely. and in this case it is a premature call. december, they're not going to go taking a profit. december is a good month for the dow. the best month, second best for the s&p, and i don't think this is a time to be booking profit. given where rates are we still think equities and the risk on trade makes the most sense. cheryl: okay. pretty much everyone agrees with you. i have to say. >> that means i'm in trouble. [laughter] cheryl: it is good to see you. great job on the radar. at the we had done this before. for. >> my first time. dennis, over to you. dennis: among the media minute, frozen fire. testing fire. more than 200 million combined. u.s. dealers over the holiday weekend. both, -- tells breaking the record of three and five day thanksgiving roses. the hundred and sequel took in more than 110 million its second w

. >> just today robert schiller up at notre dame, who won the noble prize for calling the financial debacle's calling it a bubble in equities. >> he's probably right. don't see the bubble popping until some time in mid-year, after the election after mud slinging starts and fed chairman shift. for the next couple of months, next few months q4/q1, great combination and juice by the feds quantitative easing. i think we rally up march april, may. >> just to quote from adam parker at morgan who's putting together his forecast says something like 6% to 8% earnings appreciation, maybe add 8 -- 3% and a little multiple expansion. that doesn't sound terribly bubbly. >> i don't think we're in a bubble in the sense we're anything like the real estate bubble. i think you're probably somewhere around fairly valued for stocks across the board right now. the question is are earnings going to expand enough and you're going to get a little multiple expansion you talked about to drive stocks higher? we think another double digit gain in 2014 is possible but there will be more volatility. it won't be linear l

this case schiller index of home prices is up 13% over the past 12 months in the 20 major markets.om the past when house prices were falling. so for those 2/3 of americans who own their own house, 2013 was also a good year. >> i have to say for those americans who couldn't get rid of their house in the housing market and still owned them, i'm glad to hear you say that. let's talk about losers. you again picked the affordable care act. explain. >> it was a dreadful rollout. it was an epic fail. it was one of those things that you cringe about. you can only blame obama, he was the guy at the top, and you have to blame everybody on down. you will say one thing which is that no one ever buys software on the first round. you don't buy 1.0 software because it usually is terrible and will set your mother board on fire. sooner or later the american way is to rollout awful software and improve it as it goes on. >> we'll see. it seems to be improving anyway. david, you have a similar take. let's hear yours. >> right. i'm worried about people who don't have insurance and is worried about heal

. >> we had professor schiller on today. he made a very cogent comment.my own confidence index and it doesn't look like the conference board and michigan. he's right. anybody who's done research on confidence realizes that the biggest fundamental are stock prices. all of the issues of the day, what are we so happy about? syria missed a deadline with regard to its toxic weapons being turned over. we are losing more people being insured than are gaining insurance. so to try to fix something, we made it worse. student loans, government will take it over. it hasn't been fixed. these are concrete realities everybody wants to gloss over. >> the list was much, much longer at the beginning of 2013. now historically here's the problem, in 2009 the people who bet on that outcome -- >> i think it's worse. >> -- looked more relevant, they were making the right kind of bets. in 2013 they were on the wrong side of the move. >> if you want to talk about betsz and casinos, you're right. i've never advocated selling since march of 2009. >> i don't think we're making -- >>

that combined with multiples right now, which we think are extended, especially if you look at schillere at 25, historically it's 16.5. what that means is, you know, over the next couple business cycles, you can expect 1.3% from your equities. we would -- we would throw out equities in terms of fixed income, especially on the short end and intermediate portion of the curve. we think there's a correction in the market. but we are bullish on the economy. >> now, i mean, that's interesting. again, people can argue back and forth on valuation and what metrics you choose, scott, but to talk about saying that you like some opportunity in fixed income here, can't they both do well in this kind of an environment? >> yeah, absolutely. i mean, 160 billion has come out of bond funds in the last six months. there's another contrarian indicator for you. you know, we see a lot of value in corporate bonds on the short end of the curve. equities can come off 4% to 7 % and still be in a bull market and continue higher. i agree with that statement. >> i mean, hank u, how much higher potentially do you th

>> there are those including nobel laureate robert schiller who made a living out of predicting bubbleshere's something to that. the market had a much better year this year than, say, average growth rates, pocketbooks of many middle class people. corporate profitability was very high. part of that comes from foreign earnings. my guess, things will settle down. not that there's a down market but meltups we saw this year, i'm not talking meltdowns, will be somewhat diminished in 2014. >> wrote a piece for "huffington post" responding to reports that obama care is hurting the middle class. you write in part, "it's not a simple story. and it's certainly not the case that most of the middle class will end up facing higher cost under aca or the current system or any plausible alternative. what kind of effect do you see the president's health care plan having on the middle class right now? >> right now i think there are a lot of people trying to figure out the answer to that question. that makes for transitional anxiety. i think the most important thing i uncovered in that piece, there's a lot