we also see that some ecb members such and schnabel pivoted to the dovish tone.oday, it is upon the ecb to decide if that is the majority view here or whether the ecb wants to push back against market pricing which is dovish. >> what would incentivize the ecb to sound more hawkish or keep the door open to further interest rate hikes? >> a lot of topic. that is clear. the ecb has always said that developments over the next couple months will be important. labor markets in europe are tight. we have seen wage increases. the ecb has said they want more evidence over the course of the spring of 2024 to see whether wage moderation is coming so inflation over the medium term is lower. that is the crux here. we think that by the time of the march meeting, by the time of the april meeting when we have full rate cuts almost priced in, there might not be sufficient evidence. this is where the ecb treads a fine line. >> the momentum is so strong now. it is telling that we have the bond yields up. ten-year italy is down 15 basis points. lagarde hasn't opened her mouth. this i

we have phil blaine, isabel schnabel. schnabel is one of the more hawkish ones.id have some dovish concerns about the economy, so she is want to keep an eye on. the central bank decisions continue. the bank of japan, they will see about the latest interest rate. they are not in a rush. wednesday, it is u.k. november inflation data. thursday, bernanke he is due to report second-quarter earnings. how will the consumer fair? and on friday we will get u.k. retail sales. for the u.s., the important one is the pce figure. alix: we are not quite done for the holiday season. we are also watching geopolitics. a lot of drama. will the e.u. be able to provide funding for ukraine? a lot of issues within the red sea. this within the last hour, maersk is instructing ships headed for the southern interest -- entrance of the red sea to halt their voyages. this comes after an attack on one of its vessels and is the latest in a continued -- in continued attacks in the red sea. let's get more on this with a garza molly -- with agar. good to see you. what do you think is going on in

we had isabel schnabel, one of the most hawkish members of the ecb, sounding dovish.aid inflation is showing remarkable slowdown. it is not just the u.s.. it was a rare day for a stronger dollar, currently the bloomberg dollar spot index looking pretty steady, just in the red. meanwhile traders mulling the rates. gold looking steady as well. trading at $2026 per ounce. bitcoin not at the $44,000 mark. brent crude, $77 per barrel. the question really is whether u.s. exports will outweigh opec-plus production cuts. that remains on our minds. let's get back to europe. we can talk about the fiscal story next. e.u. finance ministers expect to discuss guard rails aimed at reining in mistakes, deficits, and debts in brussels later this week. also under discussion is going to be leaving room for green and defense investment. they seek consensus on these new fiscal rules. that takes us to the situation in germany. olaf scholz says he expects rapid progress in coalition talks. the details, a man who loves the german budget, bloomberg germany correspondent oliver crook. where to

i doubt they will go and pursue schnabel at the ecb with that last mile. they will not run that last mile down to 2%. they will declare the fight over early. i will say they will start cuts in the first half of next year. the third thing is corporations done look at europe and say it is a mess. they go and participate in other areas of the world which are dynamic. the story of europe in car producers, particularly in germany and china, is not going to be a good story. the vast majority of earnings which are earned abroad, one-third of them, come from the united states, which are dynamic. in other words, the narrative could change slightly to change the mood a lot. >> the narrative around the inflation expectation print or the print that they probably wanted to normalize and wants to change from 2% to 3% and we say that particularly the pressure in europe with the bank of england is to cut as soon as possible because the economies are a little bit more weaker than the u.s. counterparts. does that narrative need to change and how you communicate means you ar

bond yields are trading lower after the board member schnabel said further hikes are now unlikely.t is now sufficient and she is confident the 2% target will be hit in 2025. the inflation in the yoeuro are is on track, but more data is needed on cpi. i >>> i want to move on to the direct reaction from the ecb. she is not to be one of the hawkish members of the committee. you have the hawkish members of the fmoc and all of them now beginning to sound more dovish and less hawkish and open to the possibility of talking about rate cuts. it is not that much of a surprise. if anything, the market pre preempted it. if you listen to the dovish members of the ecb, the french ecb governor spoke and he said the time to discuss rate cuts is not now, but the question will be examined when time comes in 2024. as we have been speaking about the last couple months, julianna, when central bankers think about the next policy moves, it is not necessarily about where inflation is headed, but where it is headed versus their expectations. inflation is droppinger is a dovish sign. you have to take into c

it is what schnabel said for the market. one quick one.all central banks, which one is cutting first? >> the fed will be the first one to cut. >> in january? >> i think they'll go in march. that is mostly because the fed has the lowest inflation and especially with waller's comments about cutting rates is the driver. ecb has more scar tissue and is less willing to cut first. >> we have to bring you back to see if your prognosis comes true. thank you for joining me on set. >> thank you. >> head of short-term interest rates at citi. >>> this week's edition of activating wealth, we are looking at retirement and how this is impacting the middle income earners ability to plan for the future. we spoke about the government policies on pension contribution. >> in the uk, how most people are saving is through auto enrollment and through employers. back in 2012, the government introduced auto enrollment policy. employers have to enrollpension. we have seen from less than a half to over 80% enrollmentm. the miniuimum default is 8% of earnings which i