so who is olaf scholz and if he _ scholz. so who is olaf scholz and if he were _ scholz.laf scholz and if he were to go - scholz. so who is olaf scholz and if he were to go on - scholz. so who is olaf scholz and if he were to go on to . scholz. so who is olaf scholz i and if he were to go on to win, but would it mean? he and if he were to go on to win, but would it mean?— but would it mean? he is the finance minister _ but would it mean? he is the finance minister of _ but would it mean? he is the finance minister of germany | but would it mean? he is the i finance minister of germany at the moment and part of the current coalition and if he was to win, it would be an incredible comeback because his party was in the political wilderness three years ago and they would be wrestling power from angela merkel�*s party for the first time in 16 years and also would get the chance to leave the negotiations, they could bring in the green party who are looking for solar panels on every roof in germany, and also an end to combustible engines 2030. also they could go to the free demo

scholz showed himself sympathetic to accepting refugees from various crisis regions, but he stressed the need to help create opportunities for refugees, and migrants and in other countries where they sought shelter. >> in my view, there is a responsibility to refugees who shelter in other parts of the world. in german european politics, i do not believe we are concerned about with what happens to them when different countries take them in. many countries are not governed the way we would expect in germany, but they offer protection. that is why they need to be prospects for integration in africa, asia and south america. we need to share responsibility and that. -- response ability in that. >> he is a pragmatist, stoic in times of crisis, traits that have served him well in his campaign to become angela merkel's successor. his main challenges to translate good personal ratings into support for the centerleft central democrats at the ballot box. anthony: furthermore, we asked our chief political correspondent what sets him apart? >> first of all, he is a social democrat and the overarc

opposition leader olaf scholz cements his position as front-runner in germany. we are just under an hour away from the start of cash equity trading in europe. another record overall first read on dovish comments from jay powell. his carefully constructed speech in wyoming at jackson hole trying to de-link the start of tapering which may happen this year from the start of the rate hike cycle. the european stoxx 50 futures again at -- a gain of 0.1%. futures are flat in germany our focus remains on -- futures gaining 0.1%. let's look at what is happening past the european open and toward the u.s.. s&p futures gaining marginally. nasdaq futures also positive, very modestly indeed. small caps really rallying. gains of more than 1%. trade around the small caps momentum on the back of those comments from jay powell. let's switch over to have a look at the gmm. the commodities space is also gaining. the focus remains not just on commentary from the fed, but the events that are unfolding on the u.s. coastline, particularly louisiana. we just mentioned the headline. 5% o

but then scholz realizes something else.s dinner invitation was not an invitation for it really nancy reagan had wanted to get him alone with the president so that he could begin to understand something about her husband. that really had the potential to change history. he also realizes something else in that moment. found incredibly valuable ally in this first lady who is the only person in this world that seem to me sort of a perfect opening into a book about her role her very unique role as first lady. she was somebody who did not set foot in the west wing all that often. but everybody there knew when she was displeased about something. people who were not in their favorite tended not to last very long and the reagan white house. she saw herself as they are to watch her husband he was someone who really did not have much of an appetite or interpersonal conflict. these battles. that really she had a sharper sense of people as james baker who was chief of the staff the trick and trent she had incredible radar. hers is bette

olaf scholz spd is ahead of the conservatives. support for the greens is steady at 17% germany's chancellor candidates went head-to-head. olaf skrrkcholz said he is the l candidate into the post-merkel era. >> i have a plan i have been able to prepare myself well for the offices i held in the past. >> and the green candidate hit out at the spd coalition accusing it of failing to push ahead on key issues slick climate change >> the last few years of the spd and cdu have not done this country any good we need a real departure for me, the central issue for any coalition is climate protection the next federal government must set the course for climate neutrality in our country. it has become very, very he cl this is not the cdu position >> let's get to anetta with the latest following the latest and speaking to you the last several weeks, the standout is the p popularity of olaf scholz. what made his campaign so successful >> i think this time, it is the first time in many years that the social democratic party is standing united behi

beyond that, they start talking about the soviet union and scholz, away from the kind of hardliners and the typical national security council meetings begins to realize something about ronald reagan, which is that this man has never had a conversation with a big-time communist leader that he is dying to have one and that he has thought about this a lot and he's very confident in his own abilities as a negotiator, but then scholz realizes something else which is that this dinner invitation wasn't a social invitation. nancy reagan had wanted to get him alone with the president so that he could begin to understand something about her husband, something that had the potential to change history and he also realizes something else in that moment, which is that he, george scholz, found an incredibly valuable ally in this first lady who is the only person in the world to whom ronald reagan is truly close and who understands her husband like nobody else does. it seemed to me sort of a perfect opening into a book about her role, her unique role as first lady. she was somebody that didn't set foot

confidence falls for the first time this year's while german inflation hits a 13 year high, olaf scholz tries to cement his front runner status sunday is the race of -- race is close wide open. only three hours of video game time, china forbids minors from gaming more than three hours was weeks of the year i'm of the crackdown on tech companies and what industries are. i am alix steel. francine lacqua joins me in london, in part guy johnson. -- i for -- in for guy johnson. francine: i have a really good fact for you, this is trading at a price to earnings ratio of 25 on trading basis so that means there could be a little bit of a buying into. today is not doing much, but longer-term, september it may be quite good. i really struggle to find a movement worth talking about, overall europe, the italian 10 year yield, and you can see that they may be done with their highs. it is kind of a player eventually against some of the other things that you are seeing , in 26 days we hate -- we have the election to see who the successor for angela merkel we will be -- will be. alix: only three hours

scholz leads when voters are asked to name their preferred chancellor.lobal news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much. sterling seeing some gains here after the bank of england said it sees modest tightening coming up in the next few years. boe governor andrew bailey says they are confident about the uk's economic recovery. joining us for more is fabrice montagne, barclays chief u.k. economist. can they eventually taper without rocking the markets? fabrice: well, can they, will they, when will they are all different questions. i'm so surprised that the bank of england appears so eager to discuss all of these quite come >> issues in apparently much quite complicated -- quite complicated issues in apparently much detail. what are we talking about? rates approaching 0.5% virtually forever? are we talking about qt in a way that is not 100% defined? i think the main takeaway of today, the main takeaway in my vi

really thought about this a lot, he's very confident in his own abilities of the negotiator but then scholz realizes something else which is that this dinner invitation was not the social invitation that nancy reagan had wanted to get him alone with the president so he could begin to understand something about her husband, something that had the potential to change history. he also realizes something else which he, george shultz has found in an incredibly valuable ally in this first lady who is the only person in the world who ronald reagan is truly truly close and understand her husband like nobody else and it seemed to me as a perfect opening into a book about her very unique role as first lady, she was somebody who didn't step foot all that often but everybody there knew when she was displeased about something and in her favor tended not to last very long in the reagan white house because to watch her husband back and he was someone who really didn't have much of an appetite in her interpersonal conflict or the international bottles and she had a sharper sense of people as james baker wh

olaf scholz may be very good, but you cannot vote in europe or a person, you vote for a party. go into a radical left-wing coalition. that is where they are going. with the cdu you know what you're getting, with left-wing's you do not know. guy: there was some suggestion a few days back that the poor numbers, and i take your point about people versus party, but nevertheless he is having a tough time of things. is there still the possibility for serta to step up and take laschet's place? maria: there was a lot of speculation in berlin around that. there was a meeting where -- that means headlines in germany. the reality is the cdu has lost more than 10 points in a matter of weeks. for sarna to come in and try to were work -- and try to reverse that looks like mission impossible. you do not want to run an election and last-minute that will make things more chaotic. it is better to wait it out and run in the next one. that may be his ballgame. even of the cdu does not make it into power he is thinking in terms of the long-term picture. guy: great stuff. will be spending a lot of t

olaf scholz delivers a shock and germany. the pfd moves beyond the cdu in the first poll.rance's health regulator backs calls for booster shots ahead of approval by the ema. spot commodities are leading the charge. that is a big driver in europe. brent crude up by nearly 3%. alix: big part of that is the dollar. the bloomberg dollar index down to session lows. in theory, what we saw over the last one you for hours is really a pboc pop. the pboc said they will extend credit. they will not be withdrawing credit as may some thought before. that really helps support the beaten-down tech names, and that really spread to europe for a bit, and then picked up steam here in the u.s. the s&p up either a .3%, led by the cyclicals. just to highlight the china support, this is the golden dragon china and asked that monitors chinese adrs listed in the u.s. that is pumping nicely, up about 7%. just to have it off of the commodity rally, iron really getting that nice lift higher. irrespective of the pboc and what is happening with the dollar is the 10 year yield, yields up by about two ba

around 30% would be olaf scholz.see the cdu bring out the heavyweights including angela merkel at a campaign event saying we have the right plan, we are a party that is solid, a tagline that did not go well with some. we have not seen that momentum pickup for the cdu. the trend continues to go down. mark: good morning. a two coalition was the base case. what is the base case now? >> that is a good point. at one point, merkel was almost on autopilot that this was going to be a coalition. if you look at the polls, the greens have really reached their ceiling. they are not able to get past 18%. you look at the social democrats and the christian democrats, they poll exactly at 22%. the next government could be a three-way coalition. germany could turn left or continue with the christian democrats in power. it is not clear. this is a more volatile race than we expected. anna: much more uncertainty than a month or so ago. thank you very much. maria tadeo joining us with the latest on german politics as we work our way towa

one such battle was scholz versus wheaton glass, most significant appellate victory which was not heard by the supreme court which one commentator like into a second brown v. board of education. the trial court had ruled male selector packers in the class factory were entitled to 10% higher pay largely because they contest so-called great flexibility to perform additional duties. a decision that was feared to be reversal prove despite its dubious merits because of the judges extensive factual recitation informed by two judicial site visits. when even one is rare. yet margolin convince the court to reverse the trial court decision and establish the job meet only substantial equal, not identical, to require equal pay. the company -- take the case which is called certiorari, after retirement dinner, former labor solicitor silverman, today a senior federal judge for the d.c. circuit, described what happened next. >> i told you the third circuit after argument was a decision which was sadly -- [inaudible] i distinctly saw a footnote between lines, do anything you want. please don't center do

you look at the numbers and polls, they are not really jumping but the individual polling for scholz the past two weeks. that is the feeling we got yesterday on the campaign trail in hamburg. this is the candidate they are hoping can thank the difference for the party. he said we have to look at the situations in the floods and this is something that has really shocked the german public for medicine rans. he said it is going to be lot of money. 6 billion euros. the initial figure that was floated and said that is too early. there is speculation we're perhaps looking at more than 20 billion euros in reparations to that flooding area. he said we have the money. we can afford it. anna: we're looking at pictures of those floods. that recent devastating flood in germany now. that reminds me the initial response to flood, got him into difficulty politically. how is the frontrunner doing? >> indeed. that was his home region. he got caught on tape giggling and laugh around. that hurt him in polls. he does benefit from the opposite of scholz but his own individual numbers are really plummetin

some sort of seeing dividend like george scholz originally proposed 50 years ago now.s a way of providing incentives for the innovations that we need to address climate change. how we will get capture and other forms of carbon sequestration. you go down a list of those places that are not where they need to be. how we will solve a the innovation necessary. i think that there are so many people in the country now that buy into why this is necessary. i think that there are more and more businesses. the state business roundtable is a perfect way to start. the more people talk about it, we need a price on carbon and there needs to be some sort of global agreement. there needs to be trade consequences if rogue nations don't want to address this, there needs to be some sort of penalty to really make sure that everyone is using the same, is using the same system of measuring and addressing carbon emissions that are really disrupting, not just the weather , but the basic ecosystems of our climate. space will be a huge part of that by any measure. >> senator, i think we have ti

they have been dragging them down and the spd, total democrats for whom the finance minister olaf scholzatively well because of that and i think if you look at the debate yesterday, he did not change there, he did relatively well, according to the polls.- according to the polls. polls at the moment _ according to the polls. polls at the moment are - according to the polls. polls i at the moment are forecasting no clear winner so i suppose likely we will see a coalition formed. is it something that economy watchers, analysts, markets prefer because it enforces compromise and no kind of sudden, sharp changes in terms of what the government does about the economy? indeed. if ou does about the economy? indeed. if you think— does about the economy? indeed. if you think about _ does about the economy? indeed. if you think about it, _ does about the economy? indeed. if you think about it, after - does about the economy? indeed. if you think about it, after 16 - if you think about it, after 16 years of angela merkel, who has been a very dominant figure not just here in germany but europe and eve

and he only became a lead candidate after a bruising in-fight with the christian alliance you have scholz social democrats. he is really the frontrunner, but the personal popularity doesn't seem to spur from the social democrats or not enough so far and as we know in germany in the end this is not a personality election it is an election of parties who needs to form coalitions if you look at the trials of the lead candidates, that explains why we are not seeing enthusiasm around any of the three so far. >> karsen, i want to come back to the greens because clearly they are still in good standing among their core constituents. the question seems to be can they appeal to those beyond the core electorate? what is your take there? >> and i think we have two interesting dynamics you were saying the climate issue is very important for voters across the board and ac across the traditional green con the stituancy. there is an issue all three parties don't talk as much as they do the climate. the future of the health care and pensions and migration we know from public opinion surveys, these are iss

angela merkel is taking aim at efforts by olaf scholz to target the conservative bloc in this month'slections. the leader has been painting himself as merkel's rightful successor . but the chancellor pushed back, saying there's a huge difference between them, criticizing him for refusing to rule out cooperation with the anticapitalist left party. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> markets have priced in part of the fed's tapering with the base case in the fourth quarter sometime. the timing on the u.s. jobs market and the state of the economy. this is what the leading critic of the taper had to say about the risk. >> my worry is, if they don't fully account for these new forces, they may be behind curve. that may necessitate stronger tightening down the line. >> he is worried about the fed letting inflation getting out of control by not moving fast enough. our next guest is concerned about this as well, let's bring in the president an

confidence falls for the first time this year's while german inflation hits a 13 year high, olaf scholzment his front runner status sunday is the race of -- race is close wide open. only three hours of video game time, china forbids minors from gaming more than three hours was weeks of the year i'm of the crackdown on tech companies and what industries are. i am alix steel. francine lacqua joins me in london, in part guy johnson. -- i f

the demand side in our country also has to be dealt with and scholz told me that afterwards a lot ofple from other countries came up and thanked her for delivering a message that some people didn't want to hear. part of the blame here is the demand and it's not just a law enforcement issue that we really do need to change the social attitudes. >> you mentioned a bit when you talklk about george schultz i would like to go back to the cold war for one more minute before we f move on. of all the things nancy wanted to see her husband achieved, ending the cold war stood up and you write in proving the u.s. soviet relations became the special cause. as we all know, she despised everything about communism and was poised to do business with a new kind of leader in gorbachev. you've spoken about the role of george schultz. could you touch a little bit on how both men, reagan and gorbachev were the right man for the moment and how nancy reagan worked behind the scenes to pave the way for peace? >> first of all, i don't think thatt it was any grated geostrategic sense on her part that she felt

tom: if there is an olaf scholz victory, is that a threat of a threat over germany to the left?eoffrey: i would not characterize it as a threat. also, does left mean more public investment to get gross domestic product up? the rebates back 20 years, the gdp has been lagging behind its peers like france and the u.s. they need investment in that direction. it doesn't matter which side of the political spectrum you are on, if you feel the investment gap, you are doing the right thing for germany and europe as a whole. lisa: we were talking about the german elections, the tolerance among the higher -- among the population for higher inflation. they are always worried about inflation. given the fact there is more awareness, more openness to fiscal spending, how does the ecb handle that, given the already starting to talk about potential tapering? geoffrey: if we listen to what has been said regarding the 2% inflation target, and the criteria for retakes, we know that rate hikes are a ways away. thinking about six months away from the gross domestic product quota anyway. what monetary

olaf scholz delivers a shock and germany. the pfd moves beyond the cdu in the first poll.or backs calls for booster shots ahead of approval by the ema.

better suited to succeed angela merkel it follows the three-way election debate with polls found scholzo be the overwhelming winner >> translator: let's let the voters decide. chancellor like is not when you copy mrs. merkel's hand gesture. if you want the politics, you have to get away from the state oriented social democratic program. i didn't notice anything along those lines yesterday and didn't see him as a fireworks show of ideas. >> a series of polls have seen the center left social democrats overtake the conservatives for the first time in about 15 years. the greens s remain steady in third at 17% the yields have risen back to the 0.4% on the prospect of spending in berlin without the conservatives at the helm and greens as part of the ruling coalition. i'm pleased to welcome danyal bayaz. state minister for the greens to the program. thank you for taking the time to speak with us. it has been a roller coaster in terms of the polling over the last several weeks and months. the greens seeing a significant rise in popularity earlier this year things have become more difficult of l

. >> angela merkel is taking aim at efforts by olaf scholz to topple her conservative block in this month'sn. social democrat leader has been painting himself as merkel's rightful successor but the chancellor has pushed back, criticizing schulz for refusing to rule out operations with the anticapitalist left party. the bank has already paid within $5 billion in fines and legal settlement. we are told regulators are threatening new sanctions over the slow pace of action. sources say that wells fargo is seeking more trying to forgo its operations. global news, 24 hours a day on air, on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. >> more data out from asia today. we are watching how the delta variant affects upland. gdp figures will be learned in a few hours time in the meantime india having already weathered a deadly wave of 19, we are joined by our chief north asia correspondent. taking a look, i was the first quarter will be worse than second. there will be some bright spots in the print today. >> the second quarter already is backward

polls either have olaf scholz's ahead of the block or level with it.eter chatwell, mizuho international head of multi-asset strategy. are markets being overly sanguine in terms of how they are pricing in these political risks that are forming in germany? peter: yes, we believe so. this looks to be typical summer complacency. we think the german election is going to be a real agenda item, even from next week, when market participation is coming back to full strength. if you analyze the number of outcomes, potential outcomes, which are all, you know, decent probabilities, then there is an enormous amount of uncertainty as to who is going to win this election and the impact this will have on german assets. because the chance that the next government not only takes a long time to form, but will have quite a different outlook with regards to their fiscal plan, will have a material impact on the german economy, and also for bunds really in terms of the amount of supply that is expected over the coming years. anna: when we look at european rates over the past