for more on that we'll send it over to sco scott. hey, scott. >> hi there, kathy. take live look right now at ultimate doppler. it is lit up with moderate to heavy rainfall. i think the most intense right now through about one, 2:00 a.m. we'll go hour boy hour and show you how things play out as star as the heavy rainfall. right now you can see it moving north and west along the i-95 corridor. but we're dealing with the rainfall overnight tonight. as we go hour by hour you'll see it eventually change over to some wet snow. from north to south as that cold air rushes in. so that will be the concern tomorrow especially north and west toward the poconos. but also, we're dealing with the gusty winds and we have a coastal concern. our team coverage continues. chris o'connell live down the shore in ocean city. how are residents preparing? chris? >> reporter: well, scott, whatever nasty weather you are forecasting has already started down here at the shore with some soaking rains and some very gusty winds. it is the kind of forecast people down here at the shore have hear

sco the federal reserve is trying to reducett: its balance sheet. -- scott: the federal reserve is tryingo reduce its balance sheet. if you look at the financing. if you look up with the treasury is doing and the fed balance allt, the vast majority of of this is coming in the short end of the yield curve, so what i think we're going to see is a meaningful and dramatic rise in shorter-term rates. that is between the overnight and 10 years. at the longer end of the curve, the supply congestion isn't nearly as bad. if people come around to my way of thinking, that policy is not actually moving toward restrictiveness, the long end of the curve is going to say, the fed is going to contain inflation and if there is no reason for us to have a dramatic increase. the yield curve will flatten. in 2019, when the curve will be flatter, that would send a recession signal, which is where i am expecting to go. scott is sticking with us, coming for recession in 2019 or 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> blue apron plans to start selling kits in stores. we have a good chart showing why they have to do somethin