that's scott bauer of trading advantage. have a good trading day scott. > > same to you angie.at's a wrap for today. coming up tomorrow, big-time competition at the box office. the new james bond film is a monster hit, but will the final "twilight" make the sky fall? from all of us at first business, have a wonderful wednesday! . >>> we will tell you about the explosion and the fire that knocked out power. >>> overnight, the cleanup that prompted crews to use a snowplow. >>> and bay area residents got a pleasant surprise, it is all ahead on the bay area news. >>> it feels like it is so far. >> about the same, i penciled in a lot of 70-degree temperatures and there will be a few high clouds no different than yet. they had another nice easterly breeze and here is sal. >>> good morning, traffic is moving well around the bay area, no major problems if you are driving on 80 westbound heading out to the mcarthur maze and it is also looking good as you look passed the coliseum. >>> they are working on the power after an explosion and fire last

we had scott bauer on in the 6:00 hour. he said that no matter who wins, the markets rally just on the idea of certainty, however, literally within the past 15 minutes we had jack say if romney wins, we get an out market i think with obama i don't know if you're saying we get a down market, we're not rallying? >> more of the same, steady. >> what is your take? >> in my experience there are very few election results which surprise markets and so i would be surprised if the markets were surprised so my two cents is if the state is correct and if obama ekes out a narrow victory, the markets will take it in stride, there will be little effect. i'm not a market expert so i'll defer to others. >> what happens if we don't get an outcome wednesday morning? >> well that would be bad for markets, pi we all know don't

we are looking at the end-of- the-year trading with scott bauer of trading advantage this morning. scott, what do you anticipate? > > you know what angie, i really think that people that have stayed in the marketplace the entire year, have just ridden out the rally that we saw this year and did not reduce their positions, did not exit out earlier when we saw some of the higher points in the market, i think there is going to be some profit-taking. i don't really believe that it is going to be all that severe. but why wouldn't you want to take some money off the table at the end of the year and maybe start over a little bit? so i wouldn't be surprised if we do see just a slight sell-off really just due to maybe some of the funds in retail, taking profits off the table. > > and what are traders thinking about 2013, scott? > > you know, it is all about the economy at this point. if we can continue, especially in the housing market, if we can continue seeing, not a booming housing market, but the upswing that we saw toward the last quarter of the year, then i think that is going to be th

let's say good morning to scott bauer of trading advantage. good to have you on the show. > > thanks for having me angie. > > so, we are taking a look at a stock this morning that has to do with cloud computing: salesforce.com. earnings are coming out today. what do you see here? > > you know, the stock has actually been kind of mired in this very small range, which is right almost exactly in the middle between its near-term support and -resistance levels. there's lots of activity, volatility has really picked up, which looks like there is going to be, priced in, about a $15 move perhaps when earnings come out later today. that is what the front-month straddle is trading. so, with the stock trading between $145 and $150, and $125 being major support, $165 being some resistance, that $15 move, if it is to the upside, will put you right up to that resistance level. now, what i would look to possibly take advantage of is the volatility in the front month has just risen so much in anticipation of these earnings, you can almost sell some out-of- th

let's bring in scott bauer of trading advantage.ood morning to you. > > good morning angie. > so costco is doing that special dividend to avoid alleged higher taxes coming up next year. what do you think about the charts on this one? > > it looks unbelievable. year-to-date it's up 25%. in just over a year-and-a-half's time, the stock has doubled. i am usually one to look at a chart and play off the technical analysis, the fundamental analysis, and say, boy, $100, $101, was some sort of resistance level. but not in this case. if costco continues to beat their guidance, continues to beat their comp store sales, it looks like, going into this holiday season, it is just going to be up, up and away for this stock. the fact that they just came out yesterday, announced that they are going to pay this $7 special dividend. these shareholders that have held on to this thing, not only have they seen this huge appreciation in the stock, but boy are they being rewarded right now. again, i don't see anything in the near-term that could even cause

let's turn to scott bauer of trading advantage to talk about this alleged fiscal cliff. what do you think - and good morning - deal or no deal, scott? > > good morning angie. yeah, there is going to be a deal. it may not be later this week, it may not be next week, but i think at a minimum we are going to see congress, the president, everyone say, you know what, we are on the table together here, and even if we have to extend this three months, six months, we are going to get it done. there is no way with the recovery that we have seen - and i'm not talking about the stock market recovery, i am talking more of the consumer sentiment recovery, housing recovery - with what we have seen the last quarter of this year, there is no way that the guys in washington can harm that or add anything to take the momentum away from that. it just won't happen. > let's talk about the stock market. what levels are you watching here? > > 1390 really held yesterday, during the sell-off in the morning. that is a real near- term support in s&ps. i think in the short-run, we see 1390- 1430 is r

there is a stock that is capturing a lot of attention from traders right now, including scott bauer ofrading advantage. scott, tell us all about it. > > this herbalife, hlf, is trading down about 5% over the last few days, but more importantly, what we are seeing is implied volatility, implied option volatility, has doubled over the last couple days. the put-buying in this stock seems to be endless. the put-to-call ratio is about 20:1 right now. with the stock trading in the low $40s, we are seeing massive put buyers on december, so near-term options - the $40 line, $37.50 line, all the way down to the $32.50 line. there is just an unending demand for these puts right now, almost as if there is something in the marketplace, some kind of news announcement, that we don't know about yet, but that is coming out any time soon. > just to clarify, that means that the put buyers believe this stock could drop below $37. > > absolutely. and if you look over the last year or so, $37.50 is actually a fairly important point, a good support point. but over the last two years, $32 is really where the

right now scott bauer of trading advantage joins us on this friday. rning to you scott. > > hi angie. how are you? > > i'm great. armstrong worldwide though is showing some promise here for investors. > > you know, you look at this space out there, and everybody was really focused in on like home depot and lowes. but look at the overall construction space. there's really two stocks: awi, like you just said, boy did this thing really get a pop. it's blown through any sort of resistance area just because of the outlook, really because of sandy. the stock is up trading around $53, $53.50. option volatility is actually very low, so you know, you can really get in this space pretty inexpensively. but at this point, it doesn't look like there's going to be any kind of pullback anytime soon. > > another stock that popped yesterday was usg. > > yes. kind of really the same story. same space, definitely not as widely held or widely, let's call it, played in the markets as a home depot or a lowes. but same thing: the outlook because of sandy, going into not only

let's get some trader thoughts now from scott bauer of trading advantage. happy monday morning to you scott. > > good morning angie. > > there is a lot of talk about this fiscal cliff as you know. but i am hearing that traders really believe there is already a backroom deal in the works. > > you know, that is what they say, and i tend to agree with that. there is no way, it's just inconceivable to think that something has not at least been in the works for a while. certainly there are no i's dotted or t's crossed, but something has been in the works for a while. keep this in mind: what's really important - and we saw the start of this last friday, when the two parties sat down with president obama and said, "ok, we're going to get this thing done." we need to see continuation of that. we don't need the resolution by the end of this week. we don't need it next week. but we need to see continuing, positive news coming out of the white house, because any time we don't - the market is so on-edge right now, that any time that we don't see anything positive, that

trader scott bauer of trading advantage joins us. good morning to you. it's been a sour apple lately in this market. > > yeah, that's a good way of putting it. people keep looking at some of the support areas that we've seen that apple just keeps blowing right through. first it was that $610 area, then $580, then $560, and now $520 is really the next one that people are going to be looking at. it's unbelievable. the stock is down over % now from where it was just a month-and-a- half ago or so, and that really is, like you said, weighing very heavily on the marketplace. > > and how well does that weigh on traders' minds when you see a stock like apple carrying so much weight? could this become a continual drag on the market? > > it has been certainly over the last week, week-and-a-half. now, if we see further drop from here, and if it breaks through $520 very precipitously, you're going to see the rest of the market come with it. if apple can hold now at $520, which is a real solid support area, the rest of the market will probably bounce back a little. b

david: will be talking with scott bauer in the pit of the cme. duking it out in our street fight. let's start with scott at the cme. consumer sentiment first of all. it is very high, but are the folks who say they're optimistic in their money where their mouths are? >> so far they are. but it is really teetering on the brink of something bad happening. i don't mean to be looking into a black hole, but so many macroeconomic things on the table, holiday shopping numbers, any one of them that we can get spooked on to set the number on consumer confidence. what we will see tomorrow which will not reflect this weekend, but anything that can spooked consumers, this thing can really take a sharp move down. now, if nothing happens, the trend is picked up so much momentum that could lead us to the end of the year. if we get by with all of this all the saber monday stuff, we should be okay. consumer confidence could be the lagging indicator for what is spent in everybody's holiday shopping this season. that one to me is very key. liz: did we not see it on black friday and frankly today? blac