still with us is scott minard from guggenheim. we want to get your particular -- your perspective on equities. we have to go to credit. what about rates and government bonds? we are seeing a search for a haven. scott: it depends on the psychology of the market at this point in regards to where the the fed's next move is. in herellen this morning speech made comments the next move very well may be a reduction in rates. personally i don't believe that. you always have the exogenous shock it could cause. now we have rates down from their highs, we are seeing housing activity pickup with isn data showing strength. we are seeing the straws in the wind telling us two things. the economy is very interest rate sensitive, one of my themes. is turning toowth we accelerate. it is not likely given the shutdown in january we will have a clear look until second-quarter data. we might not have a handle until third quarter. joe: are you surprised we haven't seen more steepening in the pivot to dovish this? usually you see people get optimistic abo

my have been -- might have been scott minard. there was a sign that augured well.buy the dip at the very end. let's take a deeper dive into this. i want to look at up emerging-market debt because it is a tale of different reorg -- of different realities. this is a $70 million ishares emerging-market credit etf nominated in dollars. it is declining over the past three sessions. biggest decline in three sessions since september 20. you are shooting to see a fade to a rally that has otherwise been hot. if you flip up the boards, you have not seen that affect flows yet. the total assets in this fund have been on fire. let's check out how much they have grown, $2 billion have flown into this etf less than two months. this fund is now bigger than hyg, the high-yield bond etf, still growing despite the fact the share price is starting to dip and questions are emerging whether this trade has gone too far, too fast. reporter: global stocks were going for their first down week of the year. and we looked like we were heading back. thelly may have kept us in green. the moves t

scott minard of guggenheim also had this to say about his outlook., iased on the think we've probably pushed it into the second half of 2020. i think we pushed it into the last half of 2020, maybe even into 2021. here inrecession risks the united states have declined significantly. scarlet: he doesn't see a recession until the second half of 2020. you do point out that there is data showing the u.s. economy is more vulnerable. >> the growth rate is going to slow down. are we going to tip into recession? the new york fed probability over 12 months is 25%, which is the highest since 2008. still a 75% chance no. everyone feels like recession is two years out. be canstion will high-yields continue to perform in a slow but steady economy? lisa: i remember the beginning of the credit cycle. we are still there. baseball games could last for .any -- thank you so much , flashing its dividend -- what is behind the move. bulls ondding some wall street. loreal rising above the slowdown. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: time for our top calls. grubhub, we have upgra