>>> joining us now, scott minerd. we have the fed meeting in two days.e risk to financial assets is higher rates. you believe that the real risk is lower rates. explain why. >> there's a couple of reasons. the weather from the first quarter has really caused a lot of distortions. the economy is going to print a weak gdp number. the fed is not going to be wanting to talk about raising rates when there's a question about the economy. that's the first thing. second thing is q.e. in europe just continues to flood liquidity in the system, driving down european rates. a lot of that capital is going to move to america eventually. and the third thing is research that we've done internally that shows based upon the trend that's been in place for 30 years in the united states the predicted value for the ten-year note within the next year is around 89 basis points. and i have to tell you something, that trend -- to get short that trend has been a widow-maker. >> let's back up. what you said, using fancy words like basis points, you're saying the ten-year yield is m