i think the risk is -- if you are a speculator, speculate it is heading lower >> thanks to scott minerdnterview with scott we talked more than we had time for. i asked the greatest risk to global markets right now his answer had nothing to do with covid or variants it may surprise you. it is something i have not heard anybody else talk about. his answer to that and more on cnbc.com right now. >>> we're not done yet coming up, are you dreading going to the airport this weekend? crowds got you down? your morning rbi is ahead. it has stunning stats on just how well the other half really is living and flying ugh. we're back in a moment this past year has felt like a long, long norwegian winter. but eventually, with spring comes rebirth. everything begins anew. and many of us realize a fundamental human need to connect with other like-minded people. welcome back to the world. viking. exploring the world in comfort... once again. >>> it is time for the morning rbi. a few days ago, we talked about the return of air travel how we surpassed 2019 levels of fliers on july 2nd shame on us. we shoul

scott minerd things we could see bitcoin at $15,000. of our interview with the guggenheim global cio, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ dani: this week, the debate around climate change heats up as g20 meets over a climate summit in naples. we were hearing from john kerry in his conversation with racine the claw about the u.s. effort. less get more into some of the key issues going into the meeting with asha rossi. how much do some of the more recent extreme weather events from flooding to fires, those sorts of things, how is that playing into policy right now? >> we hope that it would make the urgency clear. now, it's very hard to take one extreme weather event and think that that will sway minds. we can see that over the last decade or so, a number of extreme weather events and intensity has increased. that's why we are seeing legislation of climate flavor in place, being debated either in the u.s. or in europe. or putting the carbon market in place in china. there's clearly something being done. the question is whether it will be enough.

remember, guggenheim's scott minerd with the call here on this show. looking very, very smart right now. we have to look at oil like everything else on monday, getting crushed. that selloff pushing prices to the lowest level in two months down multiple percent. oil stocks got hammered. right now, not much of a rebound. $66.50 s&p oil and gas etf was down 4% in yesterday's session cold comfort to those who invested in it a month ago >>> let's see how the world reacted to the monday session. negative session in asia not nearly as bad as what we had here we were down a lot of red on the screen not nearly to the level we had here taking a look at the early trade in the european markets. we are seeing with the futures, a bit of a rebound and a bit of a pop. again, not nearly as much as what happened here yesterday still we are all in the green. it is all about your money and the markets this tuesday morning. let's try to make sense of it all and bring in michael sheldon at rdm financial group michael, good to have you back on what do you think happened yest

we had scott minerd on earlier, key man at guggenheim.e is saying bitcoin is going to go to $15,000. this is in the right time to buy. how much is this a worry when institutional money is still on the sidelines? sonny: fairpoint, but three years ago when bitcoin had its big drop, everyone thought this was the end. the sky is falling. now we just had this drop, the institutions that got in six months ago like fidelity, none of them have sold. all of them have reiterated their belief that we are long-term holders of bitcoin. we don't mind this recent price drop. that's why i believe -- i think by this year bitcoin will break its all-time high again. it might not get to $100,000, but it may break $70,000. caroline: is bitcoin the future? scott minerd has been thinking about this, maybe ethereum is more viable. elon musk not so enamored by bitcoin, but is holding ethereum. what becomes the ultimate currency? sonny: currency has different use cases. bitcoin is -- a cold alternative. with it become used for payments? we will see. you see a lot

on the other side, scott minerd is less impressed. ees bitcoin falling further as a lot of crypto's are just wrong. take a listen. scott: the market had gone parabolic. there was a surge from 10,000 to over 60,000. we pulled back here to the neighborhood of 31,000 a day, give or take. and you know, the support level is really being tested hard, and you know, the breakdown we got to about 29,500, you know, could be a false breakdown, but i don't think so. i think that there is still more air to come out of this, and ultimately, i think something in the neighborhood of $15,000 is where we are going to end up. the standard bull market -- bear market, i'm sorry, for bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and, you know, given the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins and everything else, you know, i think that there's more downside to go, and when do you buy it? well, i don't and kenny time soon. but i would make that decision based upon price action in the future. >> let's broaden this out and maybe you can talk a little bit abou

this is what we're hearing from investors like scott minerd, saying he sees the fall or autumn, by thend of october being a challenging year. and a lot of the concerns have to do with the resurgence of covid-19 and the delta variant, derailing the recovery. dave, our markets overestimating or underestimating the longevity of delta and potentially whatever the next variant is? >> with the resurgence of the delta variant, we saw markets react negatively on monday. there's information that it was spreading rapidly in the u.s. along with many other places in the world. what i find interesting is the resilience of the market, it shows you especially the resiliency through all of this. it's quite remarkable, we have central bank liquidity, economic growth being robust. with that being said, there are some questions about how long it will continue. for the time being, the momentum continues to rule the day. haidi: have we had a point in the recovery where the uncertainties are putting pressure on some of the value rotation names? >> we certainly saw those reflation names and value stops -- st

rishaad: i wonder what scott minerd is up to. this is a man that said the price can't be justified.n he goes on the $600,000 price target four days later. now, four months later, we are talking about 15,000. >> i think it goes to show how much complexity there is in this market. people don't really know where it is going. you're starting to see more of these institutional investors move toward that crypto space. we have just been talking about this golden survey. they have their clients are looking at this space right now. you do see the smart money heading that way. >> they have to be prepared. when scott minerd was talking about 600,000, what you did not hear from the soundbite was that he alluded to the fact that when you have historical retracement, you get about 6%. i would imagine that informed him of what 15,000 meant in terms of price levels to watch. rishaad: let's look at some of those first word news headlines. jay powell enjoyed broad support for renomination as federal reserve chair. this will be put in front of president joe biden. officials have been overseeing the tr

for the year, but not that far off if you remember on the show two months ago or six weeks ago, scott minerdwer end the year below 1%. everybody disagrees with that. the call is above 2% he was seen as a huge contrarian that call is looking pretty good by the way, you will hear from scott tomorrow on this show excl exclusively. he was right on the mark about yields remember in april, he said bitcoin could lose 50% of the value. that is what has happened as well scott has been right on the market about bitcoin and bond yields he joins us tomorrow you will hear from him exclusively on this show an interview you cannot afford to miss. if you are going or recording it or listening to the podcast, by the way, check out the podcast you can tape the show or listen to the podcast later on. >>> europe following the u.s all of the european markets are down more than 1%. spain, italy down more than 2% as well. there's a lot of selling around the world right now. maybe some of it has to do with the fact that tokyo declared a state of emergency the olympics will go on, but there will not be spectators, m

and what this scott minerd know that we don't about september and october?ott -- tom: scott has been a piÑata recently. some people taking real shots at him. this is a call. everyone knows october has a certain history to it. i will go with that. but i just want to state, this is an outlier call versus a lot of fancy people on wall street. jonathan: and let me be clear, the call might be right. the call might be wrong. i am far more interested in the process behind the call. september and october is absolutely critical as far as the economic data is concerned. kids are set to go back to school and the additional ui ends as well. everyone will be laser focused on what that data looks like. tom: we talked about this yesterday, q4 gdp, and frankly a first look into 2022. i don't know what that information is going to be yet. jonathan: we will get a first look at the ecb decision any moment now, usually a little after 45 after the hour. there we go. unchanged at the ecb. shocker. -0.5% on the deposit facility right. rates unchanged. we are looking for the guidan

scott minerd will be with bitcoin to tell us it is going to $400,000.stiglitz of columbia university has many different parts of economics he studies. right now, joseph stiglitz on our fixation on secular stagnation. professor stiglitz, this goes back to and onto lawrence summers. you say it is not secular stagnation, it is a complete focus on growth. explain to us why secular stagnation is off the mark. dr. stiglitz: the idea of secular stagnation was there is something wrong with the economy such that even at zero interest rates you cannot maintain full employment. that led to the idea that the zero lower bound, it was the inability to get interest rates negative that prevented an economic recovery. my view has always been that the reason the economy was weak in the period of after the great recession was we did not have enough fiscal support. it was not anything about secular stagnation, it was about a policy failure. president obama could not get support from the republicans of a sufficient fiscal stimulus to get the economy back to a robust recover

we put scott minerd on the spot, didn't we? he said over the next 12 months or so. tom: still, you've got minerd saying 5000. i'm still triple leveraged all-cash. jonathan: lisa is waiting patiently. let's get to lisa. lisa: i'm drinking my tang and really loving this. what we are looking for today could give a little more drama to the fed meeting. jobless claims are really coming into focus. all jobs data are taking on new sniffing and's after chair powell said we have not made significant further progress. we have made progress. we are not there yet. it is because of the jobs numbers. they want to see big headline prints. is it because there's were nude volatility around the jobs readings we are getting? at 1:00 p.m., the all interesting seven year note auction. the u.s. selling if you do billion dollars of these notes. these tend to be a more -- selling $52 billion of these notes. these tend to be more volatile. why are bond yields so low? why have they gone lower after the previous fed meeting? he didn't say he had a clear answer, except for technicals for other

coming up, scott minerd, global cio for guggenheim partners at 3:30 in new york, april and 30 in londons bloomberg. -- and 8:30 in london. this is bloomberg. phillip morris out with earnings. abigail doolittle is with the report. down about 2% today. now just up 1%. abigail: up just a little bit. they beat by a penny. the bigger story has to do with the forecast. back in february, the estimate was 5.95. it was been fully raised to 602. that is a positive and it has to do with cigarette volume shipment. served at volume shipment rising as the reopening happens. the big driver is heated tobacco, up 30.2%. cigarette shipments up 3.2%. when you put it together, up 6.1%. when you look at how shares of philip morris have done relative to competitors, outperformance. up a little bit less than 20%. it is not just the heated cigarettes. it is the fact that they have manufacturing scale and can control pricing. alix: appreciate that set up. thank you. joining me is jacek olczak, philip morris ceo. we love getting your perspective on earnings. you did wind up losing some market share in the second

coming up scott minerd at 2:00 new york time, 7:00 london. this is bloomberg.k to the breaking news. a bipartisan group agrees on details and if the structure plan. i want to get to what that actually means. joining us is annmarie hordern, washington, d.c. correspondent. where does that leave us? annmarie: we are waiting for the details. senator portman, the lead republican negotiator saying they have an agreement and just now we are seeing headlines that the text of the infrastructure bill we should have by this evening. this coming from some of our colleagues at the hill, erik wasson in particularly, they expect this as early as this evening for a motion of pointer which means we could get the bill on the floor and up for debate. after more than a month since this bipartisan group of senators came out of the white house with president biden they are saying they have the details and senator portman also saying is fully paid for. now we are waiting what those details are. dani: thanks so much for staying on top of this story for us. that is our bloomberg washin

back after the worst day in weeks bond yields under pressure our conversation with guggenheim's scott minerdon big tech with a new executive order looking to put the hammer down ylan mui is standing by with more. >>> a third shot pfizer taking on the variant saying you may n