joining us rasmussen report's scott rasmussen. thanks for coming to the show. sen employment index shows confidence is drifting. tell me more about it. >> that's right. we put out the employment index a couple days before the jobs report every month. this shows 21% workers report firms are highering. 23% report layoffs that is discouraging trend. second month in a row that layoffs topped hiring. it is worst numbers we've seen in ten months. on top of that, we asked a question about, when you leave this job, will it be your choice? 62 percent of the workers say yes. that is down 12 points from july. it is down 19 points from may. it is the lowest we've seen in three years. if you're making a choice to leave your job that's a good thing. if somebody else is making it for you that's a problem. lori: that makes sense. what are your survey findings about those of us lucky enough to have a job? with are we more or less confident we'll be able to keep them? >> no. insecurity is rising. 29% of workers tell us they're concerned about losing their job in the near future.

so that state, key state, basically, a dead heat and by the way, scott rasmussen will join us later thisour, a couple of minutes in fact with his latest daily national tracking poll. in our next hour, we'll talk to radio hosts from ohio, and are people tired of the race already? it's every single commercial on tv, a political ad? yeah, most of them are. all right, and we'll put the entire ad, that president obama is running in ohio on our facebook page and we'll read some of your comments later in the show in the next hour. check pre-market apple, the stock is down big ahead of the opening bell because the company says it sold 5 million new iphone 5 phones in three days after its launch and that's way below what many people expected. some are looking for 8 or 10 million and the stock will be sharply lower when that opening bell rings. president obama successfully made success a bad word in america. you're rich, you didn't earn it. mitt romney is one of the main targets, will that work? it's our big theme on "varney & company" today, income envy, is it worth it? is it going to work? an el

let's ask scott rasmussen, founder and president of rasmussen reports. let me ask you this, where do you think, scott, the tide really turned here for mitt romney, because your polling two months ago showed us that mitt romney was actually doing well on the issue of the economy. what happened? >> well, first of all, the race hasn't changed as much as the current hike suggests. it has tilted a little bit against mitt romney. we're still showing it tied nationally at 46%, romney is down by a point in ohio. that's not great news for him, but it's not a sea change in the race. what's happened? people are feeling better about the economy. consumer confidence is up, and people have not been convinced that mitt romney would be any better than barack obama. cheryl: but you know what, scott? 60% of americans right now believe that we're in a recession still. i mean, maybe we're not technically in one, but americans still feel that way. explain to me the numbers behind this. >> well, 60% say we're still in a recession, that's not a great number. it was over 70% a c

people who work with me and scott rasmussen, the only pollster that really is doing it correctly all have this race very different. rasmussen coming up behind you. he is coming up next. >> and a raiser thin edge against in him in ohio. >> bill: wait, wait. dick, wait. you know, you have got -- you make a provocative statement like that. you have got to stop and we have to walk through it. okay? now, you. >> walk away. >> bill: you assert that the fix is in. na is a fairly bold and fresh assertion. you say. >> fresh piece of humanity. >> bill: "new york times," quinnipiac, marist college, all of them are doing the numbers they are cooking the books so that the president goes better in the polling so that he gets more money from his donors. can you back it up? >> yes. all of these polls are assuming a very high turnout among african-americans latinos and young people. that produces a skew that makes them vastly more democratic than the actual sample itself is and the reason think think that's going to happen is they think obama will win. they think he will win because he generates a tur

and scott rasmussen from rasmussen reports is in new jersey and i'm asking you to look at the futurea second, not poll the past, and look at the future, is there a chance that news like we got today will start to dominate in election? >> i don't know that it will dominate this election, but it can certainly have a big impact. it will have the biggest impact if it leads to other concerns on oil or economic matters. but, this is, you know, this is something we're at the beginning of a news story. we don't know what the next steps will be. we do know that americans have been concerned about events in the middle east and we know that 63%, even before this, thought there's a global war between the islamic world and western civilization and this will certainly add to that sense. stuart: may i ask you about the jewish vote, which went 78% for president obama in 2008. i've heard reports that it will be lower than that in 2012. do you have any polling on this whatsoever? >> we have hints in the polling data that it may be a little softer this time around. and again, depending on what happens

scott rasmussen, thank you very much.oming up, oil prices took a dive with market speculation that obama will release strategic supplies to lower prices at the pump. is this presidential politics at its worst? [ male announcer ] the 2013 smart comes with 8 airbags, a crash management system and the world's only tridion safety cell which can withstand over three and a half tons. small in size. big on safety. why? i thought jill was your soul mate. no, no it's her dad. the general's your soul mate? dude what? no, no, no. he's, he's on my back about providing for his little girl. hey don't worry. e-trade's got a killer investing dashboard. everything is on one page, your investments, quotes, research... it's like the buffet last night. whatever helps you understand man. i'm watching you. oh yeah? well i'm watching you, watching him. [ male announcer ] try the e-trade 360 investing dashboard. well i'm watching you, watching him. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have som

scott rasmussen gets called out in a "washington post" hit piece. ece on rasmussen that suggests his polls are skewed because the result don't always match those from other pollsters. here to discuss that is scott rasmussen. they have gone after you, scott. apparently they have ran out of people to attack so now they are attacking you. the headline is "rasmussen, the gop's cure for the common poll." they talk about how democrats believe you are a thinly veiled partisan republican pollster. confirm or deny. >> i was in democrat in 1980 and republican in 1979 and i haven't been in either party since. so i guess i have to deny that one. that's silly. our polls show this race is very close. it's a tossup. i don't know who is going to win. every other poll is showing the same thing, but the only exception has been in that immediate post-convention period when the president got a great bounce and we showed that bounce as well. megyn: we did a segment that showed many in the media went nuts when the nbc-maris poll showed the president up 5-7 points. then we

so let's bring in scott rasmussen of rasmussen reports.com and author of "the people's money." one's ball game, right? >> this race is right where it was before the conventions. there were these two big parties. it's a toss-up. anybody who tells you they know who is going to win this race is either lying to you or druiding themselves -- delewding themselves. >> gregg: the national poll airplane, when you get down to it distant matter. it matters how many states you win and electoral votes. bunch of key swing states, you took a look at three of them. florida, north carolina, ohio, what did you find out? >> north carolina is a state that is moving more comfortably into mitt romney's territory. he's up 6 points right now. but in the other two, ohio and florida, the president has a very narrow lead. gregg, ohio and florida are absolute must win states for mitt romney. he can not split them. he has to win both. so the fact that he's trailing even bay point or two in each of those states is a little bit of a cause for concern for team romney. >> heather: it's all about the numbers and

joining us now, scott rasmussen of rasmussen reports.com. and the author of "the people's money."e of the key battle ground states? how does it match up there? >> three most important states are florida, ohio, and virginia and each of those states the president is ahead by one or two points. what this tells us, the race still very close, maybe a slight edge for the president, but gregg, anybody who tells you they know who is going to win is lying to you or themselves. >> gregg: i've been saying the same thing to other people. it's too early. it really is. people don't decide a -- a lot don't decide 'til the very end. >> there's a lot of events that can change things. >> gregg: absolutely. >> heather: a lot has been said about the housing market, but a lot of it has not been discussed on the campaign trail. when it comes to folks at home what, do they think about their home, how much it's worth and how much they owe? >> this is really discouraging news. only 47% of homeowners think their home is worth more than the mortgage. we were all brought up to believe you buy a home, you pay

independent pollster scott rasmussen is here now, he's not too busy this time of year.nd the key three states, president obama up by 1 or 2 points, and got to be clear about this. mitt romney cannot win the white house unless he wins florida, almost certainly needs to winnowo, virginia is important to him. there are some other ways to get around if he lost virginia right now down by a point or two in each of the states. >> clayton: it is remarkable. you always hear the campaigns, they play that sort of general, that national number, one way or the other, right? if they are he' up in the national poll they say that's great. if it's a national poll we don't look at the blanket poll, the individual state. you can't pars it any other way and you have to look at the swing state polls and ohio seems to be ground zero in what's going on. if he loses ohio he's done, you say? >> that's right, and this is a key state, every president, every republican president who has been elected has won ohio and it's a state we've seen in the last couple of years, last couple elections has bee

nobody than ace pollster scott rasmussen can help us more. r all the latest details on the bump, is there a bump, scott? what do you think? >> he got a little bit of a bounce. a week ago, just before the republican convention, romney was trailing by two points in our daily tracking poll. today he's up by two points. what he really accomplished was to solidify the republican bias. republicans are more enthusia enthusiast enthusiastic. less likely to say they'll consider a third party option. so yes, it was a nice start. but convention bounces aren't what they used to be. >> let's go there. because you have the democrats immediately after the republicans so now they'll have sfront and center, they're going to get the publicity. you know, is there such a thing as a lasting convention bounce anymore? >> well, that will depend entirely on something that's happening far from charlotte. there's a jobs report you may have heard about coming out friday morning. if that's a bad report, everything from charlotte will be for not. the story will be about t

the 2008 presidential election, the two best pollsters, scott rasmussen and pugh, now scott has the evenhere's no question. scott has the race even up. pugh just came out with their poll. they gave obama an 8-point lead. that is big. that to some extent, i don't know if that's going to be the end result, i have no clue. but i'm saying to you, with the rising stock market, there may be a shift in attitudes. republicans are supposed to win the investor class by 10 or 12 points, jen, i don't think they are right now. >> they're not right now and i think there's a reason for that. >> by the way, i spoke to the other favorite pollster that you mention today. the reason the stock market is a good predictor, because it on it's own isreflection of the stock market. buy do we have a good stock market? because it's been artificially inflat inflated. it represents the fact that we just killed the yields on the bonds and investors have no place else to put their money to it's a true reflection on the health of the economy, i would say yes, i think this is completely artificial and not particularly g

. >> scott rasmussen. the debates all important. thank you very much. i appreciate it, mate. >> thank you. >> geraldo: at 59 days and counting what is going on in the race for the white house? two great guests join me. joining me rather. kelly ann con way a romney surrogate and wonderful speaker and thinker in hair own right and the best selling author and golden globe and emmy award winning actor the political activist charles grodin. my former colleague at cnbc. >> what happened to us. we were both highly rated shows on cnbc. i know what happened to me just why aren't you there any more? >> because i'm at a far better network. >> those were the days. i used to be on both of your shows. my kids will be so stoked that i'm with the buy that was on bay stove. >> do you know we i got canceled. i was doing very well there following you and one day i had robert kennedy, jr. on for river keepers and he was saying that the biggest polluter of the hudson river was general electric. >> which owned our network. >> which owned the network. isn't it wonderful free

but scott rasmussen said, "you cannot compare partisan weighting from one polling firm to another. different firms ask about partisan affiliation in different ways." so even the republican pollster from the right debunks the idea that all these national polls should be retooled to fit his methods. let's bring in democratic strategist chris kofinis now. i think we've seen it all now. this is a heck of a sale job going on. the right wing is going full tilt on this, claiming all of these polls are oversampling democrats. have at it. >> even, for example, if you see the argument that occasionally you're going to have polls that are off, because that's the nature of polling, you're never going to have consistency across every poll. and if you say, you're right, there are some meth logical differences into models that different polls use to determine likely voters, tell me the poll where governor romney's ahead. i mean, show me the poll where he's ahead in florida, show me the poll where he's ahead in ohio. he's behind in almost every single battleground state, except potentially north c

and scott rasmussen from rasmussen reports joins us now.his runs counter to all of the other polls that i have seen. they say that the president has maybe a 2 or 3 point lead. you say it's romney. is that because you have a poll that tracks likely voters and most others have registered voters? >> well, gallup right now is doing registered voters and they as of yesterday showed the president up by 3 points and, yes, if they shifted to likely voters the numbers would be about the same as ours. and also, a large number of likely voters polls conducted as week right after the democratic convention, that show the president up 3 to 5 points and we showed the president up 5 right after the convention. he had a nice bounce, but the bounce is gone. stuart: how can you explain? there's a difference in the polls here, you versus most other people? how do you explain? >> i think, look, i think, if these other firms poll during that week, their numbers will show the bounce has ended as well. and it's just really a timing matter and this happens a lot. i

and for more let's bring in scott rasmussen of rasmussen reports.com examine author of "the people's it is a tight race to say the least, scott. >> it sure is. what's really interesting is if you went back to the morning before the republican convention began, that first day, president obama led by two points. both teams had their convention. and the president still leads by two points. we don't know if things will bounce around more. but essentially the only thing that's changed in the last two weeks is the democrats are now much more enthusiastic about the campaign than they were a couple of weeks ago. >> gregg: i want to talk to you about tax increases, tax deductions and stuff like that. you pulled the folks who think whether the taxes are going to go up as a result of this. what did you find? >> well, right now people are very skeptical. they assume sooner or later, middle class taxes are going to go up. they are even more confident that they'll go up if president obama is reelected than mitt romney. but on the question of whose taxes should go up, most voters think there should

. >> gregg: scott rasmussen, great to see you, thanks for being . >> thank you. >> heather: that doesop of the hour. >> gregg: we'll see you back here 4 p.m. eastern time tomorrow. have a great saturday night have a great saturday night and wonderful weekend. captioned by closed captioning services, inc. hey, bro. or engaging. conversations help us learn and grow. at wells fargo, we believe you can never underestimate the power of a conversation. it's this exchange of ideas that helps you move ahead with confidence. so when the conversation turns to your financial goals... turn to us. if you need anything else, let me know. [ female announcer ] wells fargo. together we'll go far. droid does. and does it launch apps by voice while learning your voice ? launch cab4me. droid does. keep left at the fork. does it do turn-by-turn navigation ? droid does. with verizon, america's largest 4g lte network, and motorola, droid does. get $100 off select motorola 4g lte smartphones like the droid razr.

joining me, scott rasmussen. are these -- is it it a partisan poll?ou ask democrats, republicans and independents when it comes to our relations with the middle east. >> yes and there is a huge partisan gap on this. republicans believe the relations with the muslim world have gotten worse. independent voters tend to share that view. but i monday democrats 32% say they have gotten better. megyn: have you polled on that before? have you seen a shift over the course of time that mightling some of those behaviors or opinions to what we saw over the middle east the past two weeks? >> when the president first took office we asked about expectations and those, too, broke down along partisan lines. but the numbers have gotten gradually worse. there was a hope early on there might be a i am flovment relayings. the president talks about the video being the cause of the riots. only 23% believe that many the case. most say it's a pre-planned attack. megyn: 65% say it's very likely terrorists were involved in killing our ambassador. the president has not gone quit

other set of polls we want to show you very quickly, and this is from rasmussen, and he does -- scott rasmussen's group, rasmussenreports.com, they do a daily tracking poll. for a long time now, they've been showing this race as even. right now, they're saying -- and this gets updated daily, about 9:30 in the morning -- and they president obama and mitt romney both at 46% nationwide. and when leaners are included, it's tied at 48% apiece. and the swing state daily tracking poll, they also have this, and they have that tied as well, obama 46%, romney 46%. again, this is from rasmussenreports.com. scott is a republican in colorado springs. hi, scott. caller: how you doing? host: good. what do you think about the campaign media coverage so far? caller: it's a joke. i flip through the channels, and they are totally biased. the thing that really gets me is you have romney going on, the different outlets, but yet obama, he's going on "the view" and david letterman, but he won't come on fox. it seems like he really, really avoids the tough questions, and he really can't answer the questions on the econo

i sent an e-mail to scott rasmussen yesterday and i asked what the breakdown was on how many republicanse most accurate. currently rasmussen polls 38% democrat. 36% republican. and 2026% -- 26% independent. so democrats, by two points in the rasmussen poll. >> gretchen: it's interesting because i think this story becomes bigger because what do these poll results do to the psyche of the american public when they continue to see these polls? is there some sort of a subliminal message there that if you keep seeing obama on top, obama on top, obama on top, you know, but it's worth asking that bigger question because it's more, i think, than just these daily numbers. i think psychologically, there is a big question there as well. dick morris weighed in on this earlier on our show. >> these pollsters are using the 2008 turnout model that was a totally unique turnout. huge african-american, huge latino, huge college students relatively fewer elderly. and that model happened for one year only, 2008. it didn't happen in 10, it didn't happen in 4 or 00. they're wrong for applying it. >> brian: the

if all of the polls except one guy, scott rasmussen, is right and everybody else has been polling for it with a sound methodology seems to be getting at it another way. let's toss out that conspiracy theory side. look, they are -- the romney folks have believed for three weeks that october 3rd is the whole campaign. that's why they spent -- they have spent a lot of time doing debate prep, probably more than they would like to because they've spent less time on the campaign trail. he has spent, you know, more time than maybe he should have if you look back on how much he's not been in battleground states. but there's one thing i want to say about the health care. don't you get the sense, joe, that he's kind of like jack nicholson in "a few good men," and he just wants to scream -- and of course you do it in the romney way -- you're gosh darn right i believed in the mandate! and i'd do it again and i'd sign that law! he wants to support that law. he wants to tout that law because when he's sort of in a box like that question that ron gave him about empathy, he goes right to it. >> by th

scott brown, as the incumbent senator in massachusetts, had been leading in the polls. the republican-leaning rasmussen poll right now puts the massachusetts senate race at a tie. about four of the last five polls in the state show challenger elizabeth warren beating scott brown in massachusetts. the challenge was not supposed to be scott brown. he's supposed to be great at campaigning. the only problem for him in this race was supposed to be the headwind he was going to get from being in such a democratic-leaning state. well, now thanks to the way he's running his campaign, the headwinds he's facing no longer appear to be the only factor that ought to worry republicans in this race. in missouri, though, the opposite dynamic has been at work. the democratic incumbent in missouri, claire mccaskill, she was thought of having almost no chance of holding on to her seat this year because of the republican headwinds in the state of missouri. because they have grown so strong since she was elect there had in 2006. that, since the claire mccaskill race, was before republicans decided this guy would be their no

. >> joe, i'm just telling you you can't get -- i understand the rasmussen poll. scott has a particular model of the electorate that most people don't share in terms of what the turnout will be. >> you've seen polls in the past. we had chuck todd on the other day. polls haven't gotten much better really. and we had carter was up, carter was up, mondale was up, dukakis was up. you don't know the final poll is on november 6th. it that is the poll that counts. >> okay, i'm just telling you, mitt romney's campaign is equivalent of a football team that needs two scores and they're late in the fourth quarter and they can't afford to turn the ball over and they can't afford to -- >> that's fully your characterization of it. i think i could get dozens of people that would counter that. >> no, no, you you may do that but it's not right. >> okay, five minutes left, they need two scores. fine. >> so he needs to keep making progress. that's why they were attempting this message reset. so it is problematic from a time perspecti perspective. i don't know how much additional vote it's

this is from rasmussen reports. scott, a republican in colorado springs. hello, scott. what do you think about the campaign media coverage so far? caller: it's a joke. they are all totally biased. the thing that really gets me is that you have these various news view" andbama on 'the letterman. he won't go on fox. he avoids the tough ques tions. it's just as bad here in colorado as anywhere else. i hope when they have the debate in denver that they ask the tough questions. people need answers. this foreign-policy mass, -- mess, he always watns transparency. host: you're in a swing state. are you seeing a lot of commercials? caller: i go back and forth between denver and the suburbs. when they go out and do the polls, they're finding out that they're asking more democrats and coming back with a 10 point lead. from what i've seen, they're trying to go back to the 2008 turn out. host: that was got from colorado springs. up next in oregon on the democratic line. caller: it's nice to talk to you today. thank you for taking my call. the media tries to interject their opinions