. >> who chimed in with the word "right", was that you, scott shellady?o say it, stuart, but i'm a common sense-acrat. you can't be at full employment, and have a gdp of 1.1%. it doesn't square! why aren't people screaming about the fact that with all of these people going back to work. we only have 1.1% gdp. what are they making? home ownership at 51 year lows? something's up here and nobody is ringing the bell. stuart: scott, this is for you, too. it's a headline in the wall street journal, years of fed missteps, disillusion with the economy in washington. once revered central bank fails to see the crisis and fostering a distrust of institutions. we'll leave it on the screen so you can read it for a while, but scott, that's a pretty damning conclusion on the federal reserve is it not? >> it is, we've jumped in the pool where the fed is data dependent, but the data is dependent on the fed, that's a negative move if i've seen one. untiwe get rid of that, nothing's going to change. by the end of 2018 they're expecting between 2 and 2 1/2% on interest rates

scott shellady talking about gold strength in its rates. i'm short bonds and quite worried about stocks. melissa: interesting. target same-store sales falling first time in two years, disappointing growth in the grocery business challenging environment. veronica daguerre, what has the world come to when you can't count on target? they have blown it with groceries. they're not organ. they complain things on the shelves going bad because groceries are not buying groceries there. >> they are more expensive than walmart. why would you go to target for your groceries? if you're not going to target for the groceries you will not go into the other aisles as well. groceries is issue for them. electronics is an issue. apple sales down 20% in the quarter for target. those are two issues specific to target. they're also dealing with larger issues in the retail environment like, lot of people going online to buy their goods. a lot of foles are transferring their money. yeah, they may have a little more in wages but they're buying things like travel exp

scott shellady in scott, jeff sika and john, do you first, is the stock market at this all-time highsmerica is the only game in town? what says john lonski? >> that's about it, it's the only game in town plus you have very, very low interest rates and companies buying back equity like crazy. on the retail front. we've got a dog of report for july retail sales. this year, prices of retailers move higher. >> okay. how about you, scott shellady. the markets, stocks, that is, all-time high. we use your story because it's not going to last, right? >> well, i tell you, it seems like the world has lost its mind and they're trying to take mine with it, you in? and told me once, you can only stuff so much meat in a sausage, we're getting to the point where we can't put any more meat in the sausage. it's the only game in town, but we're buying stocks for the wrong reasons. we have to pay the piper if i knew when i'd do it myself. stuart: scott, i think you wake up dreaming what you can say or a one-looner on varney. stuffing the sausage, and you're all right. jeff, i don't think you would put f

scott shellady, this is for you.on't you give your opinion on what's going on around the world. >> as we go down this rat hole of negative interest rates we are going to find that capitalism doesn't work in that environment. so what we have now is no growth with stimulus, what does that mean? i know some folks are calling the highened of the the stock market. i've never seen so many respected individuals, soros, miller, have come out and said, we're getting to the point here where good news doesn't rally the market anymore, stimulus doesn't rally the market? what's going to rally the market? probably nothing. at the end of the day we are going to set new all-record highs, but is anybody at home having an all-time high with their economic situation? absolutely not. 14 million for people out of the work force in the last seven years, 13 million more people on welfare the last seven years, 51-year low rate of housing with zero percent interest rates. no good news, we're in trouble and i don't want to be chicken little,

stuart: cut you off scott shellady before you can-- take a deep breath. ve a commercial break coming up here, you know what i mean. thanks, everybody. art, keith, scott, good stuff, thank you all one and all indeed. and we were coming back a fraction, 18-4, 18-5 where we are. donald trump out ahead of president obama, he visited the flood zone in louisiana already. however, the media going after him saying it was a photo op moment. obama visiting tomorrow. the media fawns. more on that in a later. and a federal judge has hillary clinton answers questions, and she won't have to answer in pe: ♪ [announcer] is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the summer of audi sales event is here. get up to a $5,000 bonus on select audi models. >> we're fairly close. about 500 points away from-- no, not sure how many points we are from an all-time record high. we're not at that distant. down 71 this monday morning. donald trump, yes, he did go to flood-ravaged louisiana, went on friday. the left accused him of just going there, using the tragedy as a photo-op. preside

scott shellady is watching moves of oil an gasoline from the cme. lori rothman from the floor of the new york stock exchange. lori, we're expecting shake shack's second quarter report. what do we have besides that? reporter: let's look at the restaurant stocks, david, with wendy's, the fast-food chain, reporting this morning before the bell, what a tough day for this group. economists have been saying for a while we're seeing a restaurant recession as folks change their eating habits there. they're cooking at home more. not in my household but they are cooking, looking for healthier options. that is really been a drag for the entire restaurant sector. shares of wendy's were down as a result of its earnings report where the fast-food chain lowered the sales outlook by 1% for the duration of the year. shake shack, we're expecting numbers here after the close at any moment. ahead of that shares were down about 2% today. now shake shack looking to shake things up when the report is released. according to the options market you can expect 7% move shares

let's bring in trader scott shellady. watching big moves from oil in the cme. lori rothman on floor of new york stock exchange. i need to get your thoughts on big names in retail. that is a certain connection to the consumer, 2/3 of the gross domestic product. reporter: absolutely with the disappointing last print on gdp. talk walmart will do a deal with jet.com. that deal $3 billion. that could help them compete with likes of you know who, amazon.com. kate spade what a disappointing quarter for kate spade. they have disappointing novelty pocketbooks. it was total bust. they missed on top and bottom line. had to lower full year outlook. shares punished 18%. crocs, the folks in china are not hot on crocs anymore. that is real trouble spot. top and bottom line both missed for the rubber shoemaker. shares absolutely crushed, down 23%. a lot of earnings i will help report some of them throughout the hour. david: lori, we'll see a lot of you this hour. oil traders getting a relief. oil stage as bit of a comeback. scott, what is the cause? >> some weak shorts coming

trader scott shellady at the cme, watching oil and gold fall. lori rothman is on the floor of the new york stock exchange. lori you have your eyes on two consumer stocks with double-digit losses today. reporter: no surprise on hershey. they were doing a flirtation with mondelese, maker of cadbury eggs. mondelez said no deal there. $125 per share. they could really not come to terms on proper valuation. so you see hershey's stock really getting slammed, interesting down below $100 a share with a 10 and 3/4% decline today. >>> d and w, discount shoe retailer after disappointing earnings. dsw disappointing numbers, down by a third. that has got to hurt. >>> apple is the surprise story of the day, slapped with a back tax bill of 14 1/2 billion dollars from the european union to be paid to ireland. apple and ireland agreed to a tax deal in 1991 that both parties agreed to. all the years later, the e.u., the tax investigators said this doesn't fly with us. this incentive that apple would have the low, low, tax rate in exchange for putting your head qu

get me out of this and what do you say, scott shellady?, i'm always a little skeptical when the big investment banks give their ideas. goldman sachs has been very good at this, wanting everybody to rally up to 1700 so deutsche bank can sell their gold at 1700. however, i don't think we'll see inflation, i don't think we're seeing armageddon. because we will be very volatile the next eight to 12 months it's going to be gold. so i think $40, and flirt with 1300 and okay and put is bottom in there. stuart: how about the health insurers. two headlines on obamacare, enrollments are way lower than expected and about a third of all the counties will be left with one plan available, a choice there. ashley: a couple of things, the number of people signing up are less than half of what's forecast and those health insurers in the exchanges are losing money hand over fist so they're bailing out. united health, humana, aetna, all bailing out. as you said, stu, by next year expected 31% of counties by next year will have just one option, a monopoly. >>

ashley: scott shellady, you sound like a republican destiny? >> almost.gress has counted that money come in over a tight tax rates and put in the books already. they don't want to let that money come in because it will really hurt their books. that's another thing i've been hearing about. >> umass lowell leader in the magic uniform. >> ugly the magic uniform. big-name retailers supporting profits this week. target, wal-mart, gap, you name it. are you bullish on any retailer in particular? >> no, i will say away from a sector because i don't like it. i think the data is being highly manipulated. i'm not sure how but i would rather stay with companies like amazon or google because those are the tech laced that tower the retail guys. >> good point. last quarter we were talking about a retail down and the latest reading. you buy all that, steve? >> i worried about consumer as well. july retail sales are quite weak. two months and are a very disappointing august sales. the data increasingly points to a consumer that is weakening. in addition to that you have t

stuart: i want to bring in scott shellady.k of england cut interest rates and they say the bank of england is going to buy corporate bonds. what do you make of that? >> that was the surprising part. et cetera cut interest rates last month in a day. on top of the quantitative easing, they've got a bomb purchase of corporate bond. this is a good. as you see the central banks in japan in the cba, they go more it and cheapened their own currencies. it makes the u.s. dollar which is a synthetic rate. when you get off this race around the world, it kind of pushes us off again. if you continue to see what was a contractor mark could change everything. this after i ought to make it harder and harder again to raise interest rates here. liz: which corporate bonds are they going to die? they're trying to fix a danger creating more dangerous for the corporate bond markets in the markets in general. >> why should they pick winners and losers? go ahead, scott. go. >> why shod central banks decide the price of things? they been in the market

ashley webster is with us, so is liz mcdonald, scott shellady in chicago, paul conway in dc, jeff zikae huckabee fresh from arkansas. first who am i going to go to first? jeff zika, why not, solid report on jobs, the stock market goes up so good news for the job market is good news for the stock market, i am not used to that. >> it won't last long, here is where the market is. the market is the road in on whether the fed will raise rates this year or not and i believe they have had it themselves, they have been reluctant to talk about it. my question is what is with the erratic jobs report two months ago? we get this anemic report and this explosive report when we have an economy driven by service jobs. stuart: still bearish on the stock market. give me those numbers on the service sector. liz: 201,000. 601k is lower than last year, 2014 was 240,000. ashley: a chance of a fed rate hike has gone from 45% to 37% yesterday. stuart: you got to explain this. the chances of a rate hike have gone up, why is the stock market up 103 points? >> the market is looking at the job number like it is

joining us liz macdonald, scott shellady, tammy bruce are all here.e big names saying time to sell and others come along, don't fight the rally. can you fight the rally? >> i think it would be foolish to fight the rally. central bankers made it clear what they want. as scott and i said, do you want to be profitable or right? the disaster, everybody right about that, but profits at the end of the day make you wealthy. ashley: scott, i have a hard time getting to the fact that we have gdp that's so slow and then we have this amazing jobs number. where is the disconnect? i don't understand. >> well, the disconnect, there's something in the economy that's broken. having jobs numbers on friday and the brits cut rates last week, too, we didn't get a lot out of either one of those things, so i think that we could be running out of steam, but i'm out here to call the top. we have other people calling a top. jeffrey gundlach, and gross. and we could rally, but at the end of the day we're close to the top of this mountain and running out of oxygen. whatever you

scott shellady, 19k on the dow industrials this year, what say you? >> i love keith's answer.hink probably. because as long as the fed stays data dependent and the data stays dependent on the fed we'll slowly march up there, but for the wrong reasons. stuart: whoa, what a bunch we've got today. are we going to hit 19,000 this year liz: yeah, a 50-50 odds that the fed will not raise rates although i would trust half price sushi at a gas station. [laughter] >> the show has a friday feel. because it's friday, i'll bring in tammy bruce who doesn't really follow the financial markets, but 19k this year? >> i say yes and i say, liz, if she eats the half priced sushi she'll be hitting down the bathroom door just like-- >> tell the truth about it. stuart: keith, what he's buying and what he likes in this market, and he tells me he likes something called templeton emerging markets. and that's a snooze, that's a yawn and you better tell us about it if you're buying any. >> well, here is where i'm going to come out of my chair, stuart. you know, 7% yield in a world with .25%? you're talk