but analyst scott wren says the strategy is not without risk. >> i think these high energy prices here, especially if we get much above $4 or hit $4... i think that could put a pretty good dent in what consumers are willing to spend. >> susie: which explains why many firms are absorbing commodity price increases. costco, for example, is keeping gas prices low, hoping to entice shoppers to come into the stores. others, like coach, are trying to offset rising costs by lowering manufacturing costs but stock investors beware: rising raw materials prices are just one of many reasons wren has been warning investors about a stock market downturn midyear. >> we thought these second-half headwinds would kick in. the fed talking about raising interest rates in 2012-- they've been trying to obviously engineer some higher inflationary expectations. that tends to put a lid on p.e.'s and generally makes the market a little nervous. >> reporter: how nervous? he's predicting the s&p 500 could end the year lower than it is today. erika miller, "nighty business report," new york. >> susie: here are the