we re said the people who defected to sdp were illegitimate because they never won a by election.tion. reselect me but if i then change my mind i will resign... and people set up a time they should all go through by elections and conservative mps, only one conservative joined the sdp and it will because the party split. even going to this extreme with margaret thatcher, they did not split. any consequence of success this time is the conservative party and it is the most extreme circumstances like brexit and margaret thatcher is remarkably immune to this. for brexit, the difficulty for this, and not only did the first referendum result in the decision to leave the european union but if we then get to the stage where parliament passes some kind of brexit deal, that issue becomes kind of history and it is what happens next and to focus on that as a reason to leave might seem to be kind of a little irrelevant. the crucial thing is what happens next because if we have the crucial votes in parliament coming up and whether it is no deal that comes up in ten minutes' time and theresa may'

one of the other thing is the sdp struggled with, i appreciate this may not be enough like the sdp, we from other parties to join... do you get a sense they will be people in the conservative party who this group appealed to? i think that is part of the contradiction. there are people in that sex who, if you said, would you like tojoin —— there that sex who, if you said, would you like to join —— there are people that sex who, if you said, would you like tojoin —— there are people in those six people... for a lot they will say this publicly but they are uneasy about that. there are people similarly at risk of being driven up by local parties but i think if the government can get past brexit, quite a big if, but bear with it for a moment... then i think the question of if you are anna soubry, you disagree with the conservative party about other than the central question of europe is difficult to answer. the only mp i can see fitting in the group well is heidi allen, hugely influential because she is still in the conservative party, and she can get a meeting with any secretary of state l

a lot of comparisons to a 1983 and the sdp. what are the parallels? it's very different for different time. i think the one parallel is our appalling electoral system which makes any kind of break—up almost impossible for any newcomer. most of the electorate say they would love to have more choices, would you like more parties?, to have more choices, would you like more parties? , yes. to have more choices, would you like more parties?, yes. you had you kept doing extremely well and not having a single mp. you have the greens, but on the home, their support is spread thinly. they never get the mps they deserve. until we get a proportional representation system, but all of the votes are added up, parties win a seat according to how the boat they get, i think it is really difficult to break through. i think the exception may be brexit. maybe brexit will be such a shattering blow to both parties that the whole system doesn't break apart, it is not inconceivable. we are also hearing a lot of talk about the lib dems, getting together with the lib dems, get

but, there are some striking parallels with the launch of the sdp at the beginning of the 1980s whennstream, the party has left us behind, the way the accused, grassroots of extremism and bullying, all those kinds of things, but you've got to add into the equation the poison of anti—semitism and of course the complications caused by brexit. in some ways, you would say the circumstances for the launch of a new party are more auspicious than they were in the early 80s in the sense you've got to really unpopular leaders, both parties are split and arguably, there is less fixed class loyalty than they used to be. but on the other hand, you still have the first past the post voting system and that ultimately is what stopped the sdp overtaking labour and becoming a real force in its own overtaking labour and becoming a realforce in its own right. the fa ct realforce in its own right. the fact that a lot of people can remember that sdp launch thinks people are less euphoric about the launch of the new group, than they we re launch of the new group, than they were at the launch of the sdp wh

were members of the conservative party whojoined the sdp in the 80s and they disappeared as well.ey disappeared as well. brockle bank fowler was one and they disappeared as well. brocklebank fowler was one of them. it could be up for grabs, we shall see. stranger things have happened. the mail on sunday, exposed tory peen the mail on sunday, exposed tory peer. he is facing some serious accusations, outline this for us?l memberof the accusations, outline this for us?l member of the house of lords, the head of the climate change committee, which is involved in supporting the money that goes into developing environmentally friendly technology. the mail on sunday says his family run consultancy has been paid huge sums, £600,000, by businesses that have cashed in on those lucrative taxpayer funded hand—outs. basically, he used his position to earn a few bob. he is denying any conflict—of—interest, saying he has done nothing wrong. people were looking at him, clearly. this looks like an embarrassment for him, the way it is projected. front—page headline in pretty large font, it does not

that the grouping does not really have the weight that you might want from it, comparing it to the sdpe we re to the sdp, where he said that there were three potential leaders, and the independent group so far does not even have one comment i think is a really interesting point how many of these mps are household names? how much political weight really do they carry? i think it is interesting that they already doing that and i think there is a lot of suggestion of who might be lined up for labour in opposition to these people and a lot of the seats already and it is only kind of a wiki and. and as you say, so far it is not quite clear exactly, even whether they are going to become a formal party, what the platform and policies are going to be, but they have created a bit of a buzz the sunday telegraph is saying that labour donors are throwing their weight high in the independent group, giving them some chance to perhaps get a mork adherent campaigned together. —— behind. big hit in the donor world gave {1.5 million to the party under gordon brown. they are going to have two if they wan

the sdp was essentially a labour split.l rapidly face much the same question that faced the sdp no sooner than it was formed, which is what relationship is it going to have? at the end of the day, the lib dems themselves are also appealing to a very similar electorate, centrist on economic issues but programming on brexit. it is not going to make much sense for these two groups to be fighting each other, there is at least one possibly two by—elections coming up in the nearfuture. if this group wishes to maintain momentum, then fighting by—elections ina way momentum, then fighting by—elections in a way that delivers a success is one we have doing that but there is no point in doing it against lib dems,. they will need them to at least have activists on the ground. at the moment, we have 11 mps inside the palace of westminster. they need much more of that in terms of bodies and people on the ground if they are going to turn this into a political party. they will need the help of the liberal democrats along the way. you raise

there was one conservative mp, but only one, who moved towards the sdp.om both the labour and conservative ranks. they have disparate reasons for doing so, and much of what they have said is simply an expression of dislike of various aspect of their political parties. the thing that unites them is their perspective on brexit. the truth is that there has always been a question as to whether or not there was a space in british politics for a party that you might wa nt to politics for a party that you might want to call centrist in terms of economic issues, but above all was distinctive in its attitude to brexit, in other words, against it. it isa brexit, in other words, against it. it is a space that the lib dems you might have expected to be able to occupy, but it seems that in the wa ke occupy, but it seems that in the wake of the coalition they have not been able to do so. the question now is whether this group becomes a party that says we should reverse brexit. although labour has attracted the support of many a remain voter, the labour party itself is

it didn't go too farand had to and form the sdp. go too far and had to merge with the liberals become the liberal democrats, and they have progressed a great deal. there is an opportunity, depending on which inclinations ultimately prevail, for the independent group, because they are talking about occupying the middle ground. joining up with the liberal party. if that happens, and there is a consolidation in the middle ground, that could take them forward. how much forward, we will have to wait and see, because there seems to be a common ground, not only in occupying the middle ground, but also in —most of them being remainers. all of them, if i am not mistaken, r. joining up with the liberal party, which is 100% remain, would i think pose an interesting proposition. we are definitely into new ground as far as well politics is concerned. i do believe that if there is a failed brexit process, i think more people could join this group, and there could be a bigger rump than their race. we will leave that group for the time being, becau

about when one co m pa res interesting thing about when one compares this with the foundation of the sdpour splitting off into a more centrist party. and this is and i think it is going to be increasingly small but

confirm this, we are obsessed but in this country, people talk about setting up a new party, the word sdp comes up again and again. it did not break or change the face. in the tony blair's election possible? that is a good argument. 1981, the water, which brought the country and brought a very unpopular prime minister in 1980 1980 very unpopular prime minister in 19801980 monday, margaret thatcher, huge popularity and brought the country together. everyone's view of how the world is developing, i did not see a war coming two we are in a politically volatile situation. there is a huge schism that could form at the tory party, particularly with to reach ma she uses the idea ofa with to reach ma she uses the idea of a customs union at the labour.|j knew it would not be long before we talked about brexit. that could be a split that happens in the tory party. i think that in no way makes it quite the child grants a start. by it quite the child grants a start. by two they were talking about realignments —— by two they were talking about realignments -- we have a system thatis realignments -- we

the sdp thought it would break the mould of british politics and failed.oup, this image is very much guided by your group, the hard left, is that unfair? i don't describe it as that. jeremy corbyn is guided by the platform that he is dead on, and we grew out of, the campaign in his first leadership election, so, in a sense, we are supporting him, though we do it because we support the programme. good to talk to you, thank you very much. the london schoolgirl who joined the islamic state group in syria, but now wants to come home, has apologised to the british public. but speaking to the bbc, shamima begum equated terrorist attacks in the uk with coalition action in syria. the 19—year—old gave birth to a boy at the weekend. our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford reports. shamima begum, who left her home in east london aged 15 to join the islamic state group, explaining today what it was that inspired her to go. was it because you watched some beheading videos? is that right? notjust the beheading videos. they show families and stuff, the good life t

about when one co m pa res interesting thing about when one compares this with the foundation of the sdpn the 805. it was remembered as being mainly labour splitting off into a more centrist party. and this is and i think it is going to be increasingly small but not insignificant band of people from both main parties. and that is unprecedented completely. what did you think when the news broke today? many people were saying that the police were there, it was not unexpected. i think people were more surprised by soubry's decision to leave then perhaps you might think. she has been very outspoken. she has had a tough time from a lot of commentators for the way she has approached the issue of brexit but she has been in the party for such a long time, such a committed tory. so involved with the work of george 0sborne, still defending george 0sborne's austerity campaign which is wheni 0sborne's austerity campaign which is when i think i disagree with you in terms of the fact that i think austerity is still the single most visceral subject in our politics at this time. will not be talking abou

when we saw the sdp— liberal split, we we re when we saw the sdp— liberal split, we were talking abouthanged from the old ways so fundamentally. —— mike” has changed from the old ways so fundamentally. -- mike i have never known... labour need to do more to stamp out anti—semitism. it is like racism, you have to educate people and take them through an education process. you can stamp out anti—semitism and deal with it where it raises its ugly head, but i think thatis it raises its ugly head, but i think that is an excuse, frankly. i think these people‘s politics when they made the announcement this morning have been shown up for what they are. we are talking about one of these people who believe strongly in these people who believe strongly in the privatisation of water. that is against our beliefs, the same with railways, the same with these people announcing certain polities that, frankly, i think their scripts were written by a tory speech writer. you and many others say that labour is a broad church. there have been people over the years who believed in privatising some aspects of

it has not been fed that sdp, we would not havejeremy corbyn. that was a sea up for grabs.we will go to the financial transfers. that is the other big story for the hour. honda's announcement, you know the midnight cars industry and swing dead x south of there. how bad is this closure dare to congress? —— swindon. for the current industry and manufacturing industry as a whole, it has been 20 years since the late margaret thatcher encouraged the likes of honda and toyota and remembered the excitement of toyota coming to derby and at that time, she was encouraging these companies to come to the eu shores. now, where are we heading? this is still here, but is repatriating all the work that was going to come. hundreds of public apps altogether, we are told. it is. if you wonder where these companies go next? what is the explanation of what is happy? is the international trends as certain very well informed observers say? what is the element of brexit uncertainty that is because the shadow of the whole thing. we wait to see but boy it is a deeply unsettling time for not just the

split since the 1980s when the labour party fractured with some of its members forming the rump of the sdpose making the leap now had a variety of reasons, for the three ex—conservatives, who announced their departure minutes ahead of pm queues on wednesday, it was the governments handling of brexit and what they said was the party shift to the right. but the former labour mps, it was a mixture ofjeremy corbyn‘s leadership, not least on brexit and the parties struggles over anti—semitism. in parliament, the independent group took up their seats just along from labour and next to the dup. for the conservatives, it meant crossing the floor to sit with the opposition, where they relocated minutes ahead of prime minister questions. though neither theresa may nor jeremy corbyn raised the resignations, was that the snp westminster leader to bring up the split is a question theresa may over her handling of brexit. westminster is broken. we are in the middle of a constitutional crisis on the brink of a brexit disaster and yet, this place is at war with itself, the tories and the labour party are i

suggesting, andi to you that what we are suggesting, and i appreciate that it is early days, is basically an sdpo alarm at the direction of the labour party. you seem to be suggesting a repeat of that, and everyone knows how that ended. these are completely different circumstances. it is a completely different century from when that happened back in the 19805, when that happened back in the 1980s, and nowi when that happened back in the 1980s, and now i think the labour party has gone into an even worse state than it was in the 1980s, and it's notjust state than it was in the 1980s, and it's not just about jeremy corbyn. i think the whole leadership team has been captured by a pretty hard left ideology which has caused it to be a bystander on europe, caused it to turn a blind eye to anti—semitism. its views on national security aren't in line with those of the british public. i'm fed up with it and won't put up with it any longer, and won't put up with it any longer, and neither should the british public. many of your colleagues may share your views on brexit and jeremy corbyn, so what do you sa

great big bang but then tend to fizzle out and crashed to earth, and that's not just the fate of the sdpevery third party that have had their life crushed out of them because of our two party system and the two main parties have always proved remarkably resilient. added to which, the seven are starting with nothing. they have no name, no leader, no manifesto, no membership, no money, a leader, no manifesto, no membership, no money, a website that seems to be crashing. they are starting really from ground zero and they will have to endure the most awful kicking now from the labour party. they will be accused of disloyalty, of division, of making life easier for the tories, and many labour voters will share that view. their only real chance of success, i think, is if they manage to strike a chord with they manage to strike a chord with the british population outwith westminster. if they manage to appeal to the politically homeless, those who feel disenfranchised by jeremy corbyn's labour party and feel they have nothing in common with theresa may's brexiteers. those traditional labour vote

to breakaways that have happened before, and the memory of what happened in the early 80s with the sdp westminster at the moment, is a very real possibility a small group of conservatives, with concerns over brexit, may alsojoin conservatives, with concerns over brexit, may also join this group. tonight i have talked to two tory mps who are thinking about this very seriously, and if that were to happen in this group find some kind of form as a centre ground, trying to find some sort of consensus over moving forward over brexit, that could, i stress could, give it a very different potential. so small at this stage, very, very small that maybe they hope with a potentially big impact in the future. apart from anything else, it seems to me tonight that both of our two main westminster parties are not in happy places. just at the moment, when parliament is warming up to make some very, very big judgments over brexit, which of course, could have a per pound impact notjust on their future, but more importantly on all of ours. 0k laura, thank you. laura kuenssberg, live at westminster. the car

sdp >> this is a simple question are we underestimating the risks? >> i don't think we're in a situation where the financial system is in crisis the way we were in 2008 >> neither of these three are good for risk assets ie stocks. >> there's a lot between 2008 global crisis and run of the mill markets and economies that's coming from germany look at the philosophers that they produced. outstanding. not great. here is a stock that is down 50% over the last year whilethe european banks are down 22 europe, in general, just european stocks are only down ten. you could make the argument that the blue yields threat ping to go negative again, needing some sort of bail out merger with commerce bank or something worse. that would be a good first step. that is a source of downwards pressure on low rates. that's a source of deflation being imported into the united states to some extent. that's what's pressing down. european consensus growth over the next year, a couple movannts ago they were talk about 2%. now it's 1%. >> can i go now? if you're pinning your ho

you need more than 50% sdp you can go do >> you can go down from the wall we showed you. you're still, if you're alphabet, you're still 12% off your 52-week high. if you're amazon, you're 20% if you're apple, you're 26%. that's not to say this comeback hasn't been impressive >> agree >> our question is, is it sustainable? is it too much too fast? >> i asked for charts to be made up maybe it's not coincidental that's coincidesing with a run at the 200 day we're bumping back up against that level it's not a physical barrier, it doesn't exist in the real world. it's a level that people will take note of, possibly change their behavior if we can close above especially if volume is good >> does it have steel slats? under or over it >> it's very smart, very beautiful wall the best wall. >> the s&p is going for six days in a row >> that's the first real challenge. the first real question, let's see. now we're at a level that's psychologically important to people we're at a level that algorithms may not be selling or buying let's see if the will is there to take the market back u

sdp jour ta >> your take on the momentum >> we talk to clients about vents like this. it turns out this is not at all out of the ordinary. they have been 37 strait months going back to 1970 where the s&p is given you a better than 7% return this is about 7.9% almost all of them have occurred coming off of a bad month. the average month proceeding those is negative .17. you have a really nice recovery. we have, i think, corrected some of the damage done we have a much more positive tone and i think a lot of it has to do with earnings being really good it means nothing when we explain this to clients there's no follow through. the next month on average, what can you really expect. it's about 1.2% gain only 62% of the time it's positive 62% is the average of all months being positive there's no follow through based on what we saw this month just like november was a good month and december was terrible. i think people need to take a step back and not try to figure out this was a huge rally. that means february will be great. it just does not work that way >> is it just tha

sdp john, >> john, is that the right way to do it there's not that many choices though >> there's anotherng product. the argument is it takes longer to monotize your ip. if you think about facebook when they ipoed, it took them many years to become profitable and the stock to accelerate. >> looks like slack will be going public soon. now clear what path they'll be doing it the big question is 200 ipos coming maybe the biggest year ever. who will buy all of this >> we probably will see prices come down. when investors are looking to play this, it's now a product for it >> are we going to see alternatives some of these companies will need a certain valuation or they will look for something else john, can we see increased acti activi activity i'm try to game out how this will go. >> i worry about that. that's a classic late cycle economic indicator it's like the ultimate concern we have some health care names. >> needs to end up in your portfolio. health care etf. a little concerned about the ipo market is there. it's smaller than it was in 2000 various other sectors provide diversification.

sdp >> for a couple of minutes >> we have this big story. the s&p 500, the highest levels since the first week of december we have got back all we have lost in december the dow back to early october highs. what snap back it was. with that run, valuations have also come up is it still safe to buy stock? >> it feels a lot better for sure i do think you can buy stocks. we got as low as 14 times. this time of year ago we were at 19 times the obstacles of the fed, the obstacles of the government shutdown and china trade are starting to slowly go away we still have to get through trade. sounds like they are making progress in the meantime, what i'm looking at is the data in china is stabilizing it started in december when we got online retail sales that increased. we got credit figures last week that show credit was up 17% in january from 10% in december slowly things are getting a bit better i think we really need to economy to do well or stabilize for us to have another leg high. >> the trillion dollar question, i'm going to follow up with you i

i didn'tjoin the sdp, i have stuck with the labour party and i have no intention of moving on now. and they are within it, they should work to change them, not leave. as yesterday a measure of how deeply the seven mps felt? are you angry things got to this point? i think it has weakened the labour party like these people have left. i think, to some extent, it is unbalanced. the balance between the left and the right in the labour party which i think is rather important. i think all political parties work better if they are united and face the future. i think without people leaving and saying they're going to do something different, i do not think it is helpful. are you comfortable with the leadership? i have had my differences with the leadership in my time with the labour party but i am still happy to go on and try and do the things which i think is right to do. i am not an mp, ijust do writing and blogging and go on television. not just that, writing and blogging and go on television. notjust that, you help to find out. you are notjust one of the biggest earner but possibly the b

amongst some political nerds about what the implication for labour was of the establishment of the sdpasier for a party on the left to when and if you are of the left, how would you find this justifiable? they are aware of these arguments and still concluded ultimately they had to walk. i expect you and i could nerd for britain on that subject! what about when it leaves the brexit process ? about when it leaves the brexit process? are these potentially mps who could be persuaded to support theresa may's brexit deal? that was put to them. on the point of brexit and whether these mps could be persuaded to vote with the conservatives, that question was put under wasn't a clear cut answer. the argument effectively was, let's see precisely what is on the table in a few weeks' time but that is a possibility. the curiosity is there and it is only day one, it's only six or seven hours since this announcement from this bunch of mps. we don't quite know what form its going to take, they are a group of independents who say they are going to sit together on the benches in the house of commons but

when the sdp were formed they got up to 45% in opinion polls pretty soon afterwards.ll happen to the independent group, that will be up to them. some parliamentarians are taking in their self interest and not looking at what is good for the country as a whole, and that is to vote for a sensible deal which will allow us to leave the eu in the most orderly way possible. a question on shamima begum. the home secretary has withdrawn her british citizenship on the basis she could get bangladeshi citizenship and bangladesh has said it will not give her citizenship. it has been suggesting she may get citizenship in the netherlands because of her husband and the netherlands has said no. is she now effectively stateless ? netherlands has said no. is she now effectively stateless? that is against international law. is this a political stunt? i do not think it isa political stunt? i do not think it is a political stunt, but the home secretary will have studied it carefully. if shamima begum plasma citizen appeals, it will go through the courts. the home secretary will have taken

they will not have an effect on the syste m will not have an effect on the system because although the sdpo both of you for your reflections on the week in politics so far. thank you. it is time for those headlines here on bbc news. three conservative mps enjoying the new independent group as we have just been saying in parliament and according their party over the government possibly handling a brexit. meanwhile, theresa may is in brussels for crunch talks with european commission presidentjean—claude juncker as the clock runs down to brexit. bangladesh says there is no question of shamima bagum being allowed to enter the country after the uk government said they intended to revoke her british citizenship. just to give you an update on the numbers there... everyone is up. 40% of companies he reported their gender pay gap are doing worse this year than gender pay gap are doing worse this yearthan in gender pay gap are doing worse this year than in previous years. that is according to research by bbc news. firms are more than 250 employees are legally obliged to discuss the —— disclose a di

but what is the kind of hard—headed sdp. but what is the kind of ha rd—headed calculation they sdp.ed calculation they will have needed to make about whether they can turn this into something that will change politics? the calculation they are making is, can they influence the house of commons around a brexit vote? that is the immediate short—term impact that they hope to achieve. if they can achieve that, they can use that as the basis... the foundation for growth further down the line, but the first and foremost priority for eve ryo ne the first and foremost priority for everyone involved, and as you mention discovers a whole range of different views and opinions, brexit. whether that means a second referendum, and enter entirely, staying in the single market, that remains to be seen but they want to hold the balance of power when it comes to that decision. fascinating stuff. i know we will talk to you in the days and weeks ahead. let me bring you an update on the big story of the day, which is defections from the conservative party at westminster to join the new independent group