sean wilentz, people look at this and say the race is tied.t obama is ahead in the state-by-state polls so he could win the electoral college but could lose the popular vote. that happened, of course, in 2000. what are the historic parallels that you think of when you look at this election? >> in some ways there are no parallels because of structural politics. you have to go back to the 1850s. but we're talking about tight elections, there have been any number of them, 1800, 1824, neither of the presidential candidates got in the majority of the electoral college so it was sent to the house of representatives. 1960, i remember being a little kid staying up very, very late wondering who was going to win the election, kennedy or nixon. it came down in the end with illinois but it was a real cliff hanger. >> does it surprise people when it's a close election? >> sometimes. sometimes it tells you the opposite of what an election should tell you. for example, in 2,000, i think that 50/50 split was exactly 50/50 across the country. even the supreme

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