whatever caused the selloff -- their earnings will be hurt. almost all the financials became victims because they had invested in bonds that unfolded, they couldn't be owned through the crisis. a company does not break just because its stock goes lower, though. in 2007 a good example would be infrastructure stocks that would get clobbered in a selloff. we saw this again in the summer of 2011, presenting many bringing opportunities in companies that had very little to do with the default of the u.s. government. or in 2012, with dmsic companies -- how about all those companies that did no business with the government, but got banged down by the government shutdown and sequester. how come the bonds didn't go down? there often wasn't a connection to the causes of the selloff, and yet these stocks get hit. and what we did, i came up with something i think will really help you. i call it the bristol myers syndrome. as in what does that sell off caused by a cypress bank failure, or a mess in ukraine have to do with the earnings ratio of bristol meyer

this comes after we had an intraday selloff yesterday.he vix hit its highest level since november. but let's put those declines into perspective. the moves themselves were not huge. we saw the dow and the s&p down about a third of a percent. the nasdaq down a little bit more, 0.5%. the moves for the week as a whole not much more pronounced than that. the nasdaq coming into today, down 0.7% for the week. we should also point out in this holiday-shortened week that volumes have been a bit lower. therefore perhaps just exaggerating the size of these moves. futures market this morning is soft. down about 0.2%. comes off weakness in asia and europe. let's look at the yield curve.c president, in terms of the dollar, he wants it weak and interest rates which he wants to see low. yields have moved down across the board as well as dollar weakness. the ten-year treasury note down to 2.23%. so well below that all-important 2.3% resistance level. we'll have to see if that continues throughout the day. sara? >> some individual stocks to watch today. s

of a selloff a bit after the corporate tax plan was released earlier. perhaps some expectation in line with reality. let's see with what is behind some of the read on the screen. we are seeing energy and tech leading the way. that drive.gs 6 million shares in the first quarter, that is certainly helping. chevron is cutting their way to a profit. they are cutting expenses by 14% to get a three-year high in profit there. i mentioned tech. let's go to the nasdaq. it has to be amazon. an unprecedented 20 year double-digit growth. no signs of that slowing. they may top apple in terms of year-to-date performance. i wrap up by mentioning apple is mostly unchanged today. you are seeing qualcomm down sharply today. >> thank you for that. enterprise data company went public today on the new york stock exchange, one of two tech ipos priced at $15 per share. this one is based in palo alto. including storage, access management and security. on the floor of the new york stock exchange with tom riley. >> a busy day for ipos continues today. shares above the market's,

now more than ever, stocks are traded by commodities, causing you selloffs. or double or aaa -- triple. nothing to do with the company or the strength of the underlying businesses. those are the buys. but if the fundamental picture changes, if whatever made the stock attractive that made it climb to the high list is no longer true, the stock is no longer a candidate. i tend to like stocks that have pulled back just enough but not too much. 8% is the historical optimal level of a pull back that i made a lot of money in. more than that, maybe something is indeed wrong with the stock, you just don't know, 3, 5, 8, those are all important levels, man, i have made a killing when i have bought them down 8. watch for stocks that have pulled back from the new high list, especially because of a broad market selloff. some of my picks that have come out of this process, it's my getting to workshoping list. why don't we start with our zealot in ohio. >> caller: hi, jim and boo-yah too you. i'm trying to get a better insight on mutual funds and i would like to know are th

of a selloff a bit after the corporate tax plan was released earlier.ps some expectation in line with reality. let's see with what is behind some of the read on the screen. we are seeing energy and tech leading the way.

in europe a bit of a selloff. do you think by in large, despite the selloff we're seeing today in europe, markets are more immune to what's happening on the geopolitics side? >> i think it will weigh on the markets. how quickly do you think the north korea situation will be resolved? that's in the back drop. what's important now is you're having this at the same time as you have the questions about the republican agenda. questions about the economy in the u.s. today with the retail sales data last week. as much as all these things happening at the same time that's explaining the current weakness. >> the treasury secretary said the tax reform by august, that is simply not achievable. i guess he's catching up with reality. is there a risk that this tax reform is really just going to be a small tax cut and it will be delayed? >> exactly. that's certainly what you wonder about when you see initially 12% gains in the s&p 500. that was priced in a lot. priced it in quickly. when you get the results of what republicans w

if there is some sort of big seet was le pen, you may quite a selloff.ut for right now, like you said, the euro has been extremely resilient going into these elections. mark: oil has not been resilient. .t is down for the first week goldman sachs says the sell this week in the oil markets -- it is nothing to do with fundamental evidence. it could be purely down to technicals. breaking through the 50 and 100 day average. would you agree with that? scott: i am not one to his agree with the likes of goldman sachs, but i really would here. you look at the news coming out. achnically, that 50 area is huge moving average, but all of the news coming out with the increase in u.s. production, and more importantly, what i believe is with the upcoming opec discussions and whether they will actually adhere to the production cuts or not, i think that is very suspect. there is a lot more downside room to oil than there is upside, because i truly believe some of these opec countries are going to start increasing, ramping up production, which will just put further press

late-day selloff into a three-day weekend. markets are closed tomorrow, blackrock is focus of what they have done in the past. interesting the timing. maybe now they're coming out with it after they bought the gold hoping others will join. maybe they're sitting on what they have. ashley: may be. david: for whatever reason if you're holding gold it's a good deal. ash, thank you. joaning me jonathan hoenig, capitalist pig hedge fund and kevin kelly recon partners. kevin i think it was knee-jerk reaction the moment they heard about the big bomb. is that the reason why the market stayed down or more they didn't want to hold going into a holiday weekend? >> think one of the biggest things the banks didn't give market as reason to buy stocks. there is a the second largest sector in the s&p 500. we saw bank earnings coming out today. they weren't that great. they didn't have a good guidance going forward. that lent credence into a long holiday weekend. why would you own stocks given twothe uncertainty? weeks. we bombed syria and bomb

. >>> european companies exposed to south africa selloff after the country is downgraded to junk by s&p, following the cabinet reshuffle that has rocked the nation. >>> pure imagination for credit suisse afterfor a takeover after apple terminates its chip supply deal, helping shares in the uk firm recover some of yesterday's steep losses. >>> asos falls out of fashion with investors despite raising its full-year sales guidance. >>> good morning, everybody. thank you very much for joining us. glad to be in your company over the course of the next hour. we have a packed show. loads coming up. have an fx guest just making his way into the studio, i see. get your questions through nice and early so i can use them on the show. doesn't help when they come in after the show is over. find us on twitte twitter, @louisabojesen, or streetsignseurope@cnbc.com. we'll talk about what's taking place with regard to south africa, venezuela interesting as well. heating up there. we'll hear more about the latest on the french elections. we have this second televised debate taking place this evening. eur

in the trump election, we had the mexican peso selloff and rally aggressively. we're seeing it in the french oat spread. widening in the months before the election and in the days before tightening again. the reason this is worrisome is the fact that melenchon is increasing in the polls, he's seen as a market unfriendly candidate. a few months ago, it was le pen who was unfriendly, now we have two friendly candidates, two unfriendly ones. the market has gotten a bit complacent. >> what ask dodoes this mean fo monday morning when the bunds start trading again and if le pen and melenchon are in the final round? if le pen gets in, we could see spreads, 200 over, melenchon, 150, 200 over. the market is below 70. so the bund is looking for macron and fillon getting in, or a runoff which is possible, but a low probability event at this stage. >> would these levels be worrying for the french state? for the french banks? >> i don't think so because the overall cost of borrowing is low. the yield is 90 basis points for ten years. if the spread widens, given the fact that

a bit of a selloff. we had several announcements like this. tax plan is the information you saw during the campaign. there's been several cases where we reinvigorated expectations. what's important now is the impact in congress and how far this goes, how fast timeline details, some notion as to wlha the compromise will be between house republicans and this plan, that's real information for markets. it's real important to step back in markets. we're reporting an earnings quarter in the united states that's likely to show more than 10% eps growth in the calendar first quarter before any tax cuts or anything like that. so obviously a good deal of the rally we've had in financial markets is justifiable for where earnings are going. >> can earnings keep the stock market rally alive despite uncertificate aarouu uncertainty around tax reform. >> we will not be easily seeing 10% eps growth forever. i would point out the middle of the year periods, periods where you get selloffs. it's very common. i would use that to take advantage of those selloffs, a

we're still up. >> yeah. >> it has every reason to selloff. they couldn't pass the repeal of obamacare. >> yeah. >> they couldn't get anything done, but yet people still maintain a positive outlook. still maintaining their propensity to buy equities. >> we have to go. you disagree with larry, you are a buyer of blackrock. >> we are a buyer. we like the stock. >> thank you, guys, appreciate your insights on another moe mentous day that wall street's watching carefully. >> the dow is up 16 points right now, 45 minutes to go. down as little as two, but hanging on to gains here. s&p up and russell and nasdaq up. >> pulling back on comments, ahead of the meetings with china's president, look at reaction from former u.s. ambassador to the united nations, bill richardson. that should be interesting. >> watch out, google and facebook. the ceo of the world's largest advertising company said snap could be a force to be reckoned with. martin sorrell picks it exclusively next. you're watching cnbc, first in business world wise. with e*trade you see things

julie: it was a substantial selloff. the groups in the s&p 500 were down today.als, even real estate was off. if we hopped to the lower.rg it has been said by reuters that the company looking to sell. finally, a little bit of green there. broadcom getting a bid that apple supplier coming up off of yesterday's selloff. joe: let's take a look as government bonds, a lot of action there today. julie: what happened to all the action? joe: that's pretty remarkable. i guess because he got that selloff and danced around a lot. there we go, unchanged. longer-term chart. julie: why don't people take a dip into the bloomberg here? we have to prove joe right. we saw a lot of whip sawing around. day,at the end of the ended up unchanged. we go back to that six-month chart of the 10-year. out of aeally fallen range that has been tight for a while. you see it breaking down. that's a huge story. was something scott miner was excited about from guggenheim. he said, i can't believe we are breaking through this level while live on tv. if you look at currencies, we have been watching

here is the worst selloff of 2017 which led to more weakness. s&p 500 fell below the 20 day moving average in blue. this was a concern to technical analysts. and yellow, the 50 day moving average, should investors have bought the dip? katie stockton this morning sent out a note, was expecting a near-term pullback but has been excellent on the near-term on the medium-term and long-term. she does think there could be more weakness, a pull back down to at least the 50 day moving average and yellow. she thinks because he the s&p 500 dropped to 22.80, a 5% move down from the peak on march 1. one reason katie stockton thinks there could be some weakness for stocks, technology, that has been great out of the election and great this year, the top sector. when we look at -- this is not pulling up, i will do it here. 500 tech index out of the election. a beautiful uptrend. more recently, the area of congestion. this is called a broadening formation which represents uncertainty on the part of investors. typically it breaks the downside. the rsi or a moment

mcdonald's is running so much, some say it's ripe for a selloff. i say ceo steve easterbrook continueses to deliver, but if you want to wait and see, before you pull the trigger, i'm fine with that. ely lily will paint a very good picture, it's been hammered lately. 3m is what we call a core portfolio holding. it's stock has been reliable as clock work ever sin. that plays right into their hands. those who don't own it can only hope that some nitpicker finds something wrong and it gives you a pull back to get in. after the close, chipotle reports, this is going to be a little tougher. the stock's already had a big run, i don't want you to chase. there are so many that the improving news may actually cause a short-term selloff before the stock advances again. wednesday we hear from boeing, and all i know is that the company is doing fabulously. i expect a good quarter, but so does everyone else. no edge here, can united technologies deliver a quarter that's as good as honey well did this morning? what a quarter that was. this company has seen real s

, 70 plus points of that selloff today. we'll break this down in a second here. what happened to something that seemed like a sure bet? to caitlyn huey burns and independent women's forum, sabrina schaefer. sabrina, how did this go from a go, to stop and go and to maybe a stop? what happened? >> neil, the first 100 days is really an artificial creation that came about under fdr. i think -- neil: i know, it is not even going to be in the first 100 days. it will not be in the first 200 days. >> i think that is okay. we're seeing a lot of presidencies being on the campaign trail is being very different than actual governing for this president in particular who presented himself as a disruptor and looked down his nose at the political elite and establishment, he realize it takes political capital to get things done. otherwise you're a bull in a china shop and you will be left with a lot of broken pieces. the lesson here is not necessarily a bad thing to slow down and get things right. a lot of good domestic policy could come fr

i have seen the selloff -- think that the bond markets are about the negotiations this week.ities tend to look at these events with a little more frequency. if you should back to 2013 13, the last time a government shutdown, the market was wild. huge spikes in volatility around the government shutdown. equity markets ignored the event. we had a nice little correction afatewith that shutdown but otherwise there was no psych in the fix, not even equivalent to the one in 2012 42014. it was a non-event. financials have traded with the bond market so we want to watch that sector carefully but today financials are up along with industrials. nice earning season. we have good distractions and the equity market. david: how difficult is it to make historical parallels like that? so it is ourevent most recent occurrence. it was a shock at that point. the other thing as we have 2013 to go on. equity investors are looking to look through an event. a government shutdown is less meaningful than russian 2013 we came out unscathed. i can present dangers as well. if there's a meaningful econom

united airlines, fell by as much as 4% in us trading before recovering to close lower than 1%, the sellofft value of the company and investors dumped on the stock after this video emerged showing airport officials dragging of a passenger on one of united's us flights. the video has gone viral and has been watched hundreds of millions of times around the world and united's chief executive had to issue another apology saying he was sorry and the airline would fix it. he had initially said the staff were following established procedures. in other news, china's inflation figures are out later this hour and the cpi grew fast last month. they are targeting 3% this year but is that a realistic target? here's the view of a man who tracks the chinese economy and he spoke to me earlier. in china they have already set a target, this year. to why isn't good, too low isn't good, but of course it is a bit on the low side —— to why. 2% is probably around best for china. at the moment i would say it's not easy to achieve 296 would say it's not easy to achieve 2% because of food prices, food prices always

haveot another major political problem coming up that seems tailor-made to cause the kind of panic selloffhat makes for a fabulous buying opportunity. i'm talking about the -- accidently cause a government shutdown because they might not be able to pass a budget by this friday. i'm not saying that a shutdown will happen, but even fears that it might happen could send this pathis -- it's hard to imagine that congress is having trouble getting it's act together. when you consider house speaker paul ryan and the gop has increasingly gotten fraticidal of late. just the notion that an accidental government shutdown might been the table, could give you enough to have a selloff this week. you may get a better chance to buy. i know this is advice that's rarely heeded. let's today you want to put money into an indexed fund because you can't take this one. you want to put in $1,000, just do $250. make yourself a shopping list of companies that have already reported superior earnings, so if something happens i would focus on honey well, with excellent numbers, one of the banks, all of which are cheap

they are rebounding after the big selloff we saw in yesterday's trading session.the worst day in six weeks on the surprise build in gasoline inventories. brent krut up crude up by 0.3%. wti up by 0.3%. it's also boosted by the fact that there is more and more talk about an extension of the oil price cuts. ♪ let's get back to the election season. french far-right candidate, marine le pen, focused on security and immigration in the last rally ahead of the first round in sunday's presidential election. speaking in marseille, le pen said she is the only candidate that can bring change to france and pledged to return the country to its people. centrist candidate, emanuel macron cautioned against the rise of nationalism saying he aims to rebuild europe. claire is in paris. what is the mood given that we're just a few days away from the fist round? >> the mood is very much a mood of uncertainty. the whole country is holding its breath. to be impatience that the first round is over. you were talking about marine le pen, what she's doing is going back to the roots in her l

another triple digit selloff yesterday. dow really being dragged lower yesterday by ibm and those disappointing numbers. dow futures better up 46 1/2 points this morning. s&p up 7. nasdaq futures are up about 19 points. we have more earnings to talk to you about, including amex last night. better numbers. as for overnight action in asia. better numbers when it comes to japanese exports. it's an important sign of global demand, potentially picking up. the nikkei ended the day flat, but hong kong and shanghai rebounded a bit from what has been a lower week for both markets. hong kong up a percent. shanghai flat. as for the early action in europe, mostly positive, especially in france which we're watching closely ahead of the first round voting on sunday. the cac is leading the charge, up 1%. the ftse 100 in the uk underperforms again on the back of a stronger pound. very interesting to see after the prime minister theresa may surprisingly called that snap election. strong pound hurting the exporters particularly, and the ftse

there was a selloff of oil overnight. they are recovering a little bit today.e have a next picture in europe this lunchtime. -- mixed picture in europe this lunchtime. genie: there has been trouble for general motors. >> venezuelan authorities seized its plant in the industrial hub of valencia. the firm says the seizure was causing her reparable damage to it is this and the workers it has in the country. it has vowed to take all legal action to defend its right. it has been suffering from a lack of raw materials. genie: celebrities have been warned about what they post on instagram. >> the federal trade commission has written to 90 people warning them of their responsibility if toy are being played -- paid post things on social media. it wants them to be honest about what they like and what they are paid to like. >> more than any other social media platform instagram has emerged as a job for global advertisers. so-called influencers can be paid thousands of dollars per post to promote products. the federal trade commission tasked with regulating advertisement a

financials led the selloff in stocks.half of what it has an already in anticipation of this potential government shutdown, so i think financials have corrected a lot inconsistently with the long bund. alix: that there is we have had so much run in the financials, but that's not true. they are not in overbought territory. valuation has been attractive for financials and energy for a while, but unfortunately, valuation is not what is moving the shocks -- stocks in the short-term. at some point investors look for some beta place, some risk, for somebody wish and opportunities. we have to get to those oversold levels on the broad index first before you see capital look for opportunities in these groups in my opinion. david: if you are president trump and what to get to 3% to three .5 percent growth, do you look to the financials to leave that growth? do you need them healthy to bring the rest of the economy behind it? >> it is important. one of the reasons we have had this lackluster recovery is that basically financials have

the price today is the price before the selloff in march. the same price at the algiers meeting. prices have been not going up .uch above that cou bite and the production cuts hitting the itket -- this is the time takes to get oil from the middle east to east asia. basically saw the potential in the back half of the year for brent to hit in the 60's. if we don't get a deal, you have a much more bearish case. ed: we do indeed. we will have the compounding of the physical markets getting much looser in the third and fourth quarter and we will have the financial markets getting more bearish. >> what is that price? ed: the price could be $45 without an agreement. >> we were there a few weeks ago. ed: it would have an impact around the world. it would have an impact on the current boom we are seeing in the u.s. potentially even more in 2018. that would slow down the momentum considerably on the u.s. production site. >> we did not wind up seeing that fall off. it shale has proven anything, it has proven they can still they are in a much better pla

one where core rates selloff or spreads widen.dn't be hit by france this geopolitical situation escalates or the u.s. slows, and that will give it to any fixed income security. risenhis is the 10 year, over the past few days, increasingly a four way race. that is the tactical story. if theically, i wonder french economy will change sufficiently over the next five years to justify tighten spread over germany. --t is it we should see in the candidates are saying about what they are going to do to the economy to justify wounds. the german economy is roaring. zero output gap, should have higher inflation, it is working. struggleh economy, i to see what the policy formulation being put forward is going to due to significantly change the story. francesco: there is a fiscal factor that works against france versus germany. if you look at debt or deficits, france should trade wider. growth in france and germany, there is a level affect but in terms of changes, things are progressing ok. and then there is this systemic risk premium, which o

we have seen a significant selloff in iron ore. finally getting capitulation trade coming through. you can see it in the minors. miners. isdon doesn't look like it down by much. i'm curious to see how the miners open this morning. matt: it will be interesting and they often decide the direction of the index. that will be interesting to see how they trade. they met sales estimates but they had difficulty in china, and it was upside in brazil. we are going to take a quick break. the market opens in four minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: let's talk about the futures positioning. two things to keep an eye on. the seven stocks going ex dividend. some fairly big names in the mix. the other one is the miners going aggressively in australian trading. capitulation after this big downdraft in the price of iron ore. a big week for iron ore and the miners are actually finding -- finally catching up. matt: it is also interesting that the safe haven trade continues. german bund's, this is a three day chart. this morning's trade, the market has

we had the big selloff more than two weeks ago. volatility usually breeds volatility. today's calm may not last. more of a pullback is ahead. that point.port in orange, we have the vix. up top, we have the s&p 500 in white. over the last 12 months, when there have been big divergences among volatility has spiked higher as stocks moved lower. now, we have the big divergence -- on the vix, we do have higher lows. the vix could spike higher as stocks moved lower. trade, of the trump stocks are possibly well higher -- some investors and saying they are looking elsewhere come --luding jeffrey good luck looking elsewhere come including jeffrey gunlach. on the bottom, we have the old world index along with the s&p 500. both up 5.5%. up top, we have the emerging markets index along with the european broader index. both of those up 10%. there is some outperformance there. there may be reason to go abroad for bigger u.s. equity returns. speaking of companies that have more of an international player -- breaking news. back to you. scarlet: we want to turn to the story we've been

stocks are expensive, the risk is to the downside, leaving stocks vulnerable to a selloff. look what happened to goldman sachs yesterday. look what happened to ibm today. the worry is that the first quarter might represent the peak for earnings growth, which is now about 10% for the first quarter. there's no panic yet. this could all change if we get stronger second quarter gdp data. and the fed does indeed raise in june. that would almost certainly push bond yields higher, and a lot of these issues would go away. but for right now, it's a tricky moment for the markets. i'm bob pisani for "nightly business report" at the new york stock exchange. >>> the rally in the markets since last fall may be one reason why individual investors are getting back into the stock market. today, td ameritrade recorded an increase in new accounts which are primarily used by individual investors. it also said the number of trades per day grew. rival discount broker charles schwab yesterday said account openings hit a 17-year high. while it appears smaller investors are going into the market, a

minor, minor selloff here. that the numbers you're looking at mask what is very, very light volume running a quarter what it normally would, a lot has to do with anxiety ahead of french election this weekend. fears if an extreme candidate does very, very well or out right wins, le pen, for example, then it is anyone's guess how far european market tumbles. keep in mind they said that with the european union and "brexit" and that didn't pan out. that is the fear. so many investors are kind of holding on to their dough. more after this. on your big day the only tears you shed should come from joy... ...not allergies. flonase allergy relief helps block 6 key inflammatory substances that cause nasal congestion and itchy, watery eyes. it's an allergy nasal spray that works beyond the nose. flonase. time's up, insufficient we're on prenatal care.es. and administrative paperwork... your days of drowning people are numbered. same goes for you, budget overruns. and rising costs, wipe that smile off your face. we're comi

goldman sachs group says there is no fundamental evidence to justify the selloff in prices.he faith.ping i will tell you what the problem is. we are once again caught between the tension of opec supply cuts versus what is happening in the u.s.. outid have data come friday. i will give you the good news first. jump. this small week,akes added this bringing the total to 688. news is they continued to decline. in the face of all that pressure that opec is supposedly putting on the market. yousef: the folks decided this over there. they revised their forecast for crude oil. $60 ae now looking at barrel in 2018. ultimately, the inventories are part of the story. spoke to ministers and they said he you are focusing too much on u.s. inventories. they are confident it is going to work out. on theee where we sit story. joining us from the gulf research center. opec, you are fighting for survival. >> they are fighting to keep prices at a level where a lot of these countries can maintain their fiscal deficits. oil continues to go down, that will not be good. i am hopeful there will be

here, we are not seeing a selloff in the equities space. off the highs we saw a few weeks back. we are getting a lot of hedges, but no one is clearing the positions in the equity market. it tells me there is cash lying on the sidelines for some time now. let's have a look. this is another version of what ramy was looking at earlier. gold is on the way up. this is really when we saw money coming back into havens. gold is blue. again-dollar, if you will, in purple. these are stocks. we will not be seeing a selloff. week, 9996.t of the theh the, what happens with oil price. that is crude on the back of news that saudi make it behind this. let's have a look at this. this out pointing earlier. the key support level. we are looking at this very important keynote, this dollar-yen.on very close to session lows. we were as high as 75. treading water, if you will, on dollar-yen. very quickly, let me wrap things up with this. yields have been cascading lower. here is the 10 year. we are sitting at 2.5% already. this is a spread of basis points. uneven

the last few minutes. -- the south african rand is seeing selloff in the last few minutes. messages from the council. mario draghi speaking in private amid speculation the rate rises might come before qe comes to a halt. sequencing with the fed. barnaby martin, what do we need to hear from these guys tomorrow? barnaby: it is predictable. when there has been talk about the qb rates or in early, the ecb goes into panic mode and the doves say we will be slow at removing accommodation. they will make it clear to the market tomorrow that they will be very cautious about raising rates to early. the sequencing will be, and qe and then think about raising rates. they look about bund yields in the last week, it is de facto a tightening of financial conditions which makes it even tougher for the ecb to receive their 2% inflation mandate. outcome the doves. guy: the gap in europe is colossal. it is being filled. unemployment down to 8%. a big german constituency within that here they have a lot of road to work with. the inflation story starts to become an issue. expect poordo not infl

is verynk it significant, especially for investors if there is a big selloff.opportunity for profit. there are questions hanging over market. that a trying to say financial crisis is where china is headed, but if they did not understand, it created problems in the financial system and banks. i think for now, the issue is how china can thread the needle raining in credit, but not pulling in things so quickly that they see bond yields rising. really a bit of an outlier. we see jgb. in europe, there are moves -- doubts that they make any moves anytime soon. betty: you make a great points. joyce, do you see any sort of debt crisis? we know that debts are rising. there could be a contained situation despite the default. to see at all of debt crisis brewing in china? >> for the medium-term, this is what markets are focused on. they do think that over the short term, this is manageable. it is an important step to make sure they have interest coming into the markets. i think the market was very foreigned to see exchange reserves go up for the first time in two years. a

advance ton of the yield support to 1.77%, the 50% retracement of the post election day selloff.is the bank of america merrill lynch global financial stress index which at the end of last week climbed 2.24, meeting the peak reached in february, rebounding from the low reached in march. you can see the fall last week, nowhere near the levels we were at the time of the u.s. election in november. brexit, allation, the 2012 sovereign debt crisis. do keep an eye on this geopolitical concerns as they heighten. francine: let's get more on turkey, president carter ones referendum saw the lira rise as much as two point -- president erdogan's -- referendum saw the lira rise is point -- rise as much as two points. >> we have been getting more and more perspective throughout our coverage live and we have gotten more from the chief investment --icer at the as bundle istanbul base. the first day after the referendum evil, ultimately you are looking at a nation that is divided. you are hearing sharp rhetoric out of europe. that all -- does that add to the political risk rather than take away fr

shanghai stock exchange certainly is one to watch as we see those come back and recover from the big selloffdavid: thank you. a quick look at what we're doing. look at the spread. at -- iron ore futures traded. metric ton. up by a third of 1%. it has really come a long way down as far as iron ore is concerned. >> it has been a year since the delete runs -- the deputy prince of self -- saudi arabia ready revealed his plan to shift away from dependence on oil. is partormation program of the blueprint to drive those changes. great to have you back on the program. they have pointed to the as it -- execution risk. talk to me about the progress you are making. >> thanks for having me. when we look at what is happening, economic policy, it is huge. totally different from than what we had gone through in the five-year plan. -- sent oute the last year. fully operational. to the pretty clever us different government bodies. the performance center, responsible for gathering the data of all the programs, the initiatives, and the progress of all that is going on. the initial report of the program, most o

financials, the worst first of alling sector in the last month, down more than 4% and the selloff comes as jpmorgan, citi, wells fargo kick off big bank earnings next week. so could there be more trouble ahead in the space. dan? >> what's interesting to me is bank stocks massively outperform since is election the s kpp 500. it's nearly double that performance year to date, though, the s&p is up 5%. i guess more importantly the s&p is near all-time highs yet the bank stocks are sold off 5% or o6 r 6%. their showing poor relative performance. we speak about it on this desk almost every night this year. what is driving the market, what are the things that are going to continue the strike and obviously it has a lot to do with this legislative agenda that's perceived to be p pro-growth. one thing that is really driving the banks, though, i believe, is deregulation that that doesn't have to be legislative. that could come from executive order and we've seen the president do that in a couple of occasions but i guess the main point here is one of the reasons why i think going into bank earnings

selloff.re is not a huge amount of momentum and with many markets closed across the region, volumes may be limited as well in sydney. betty: adam, has had a sydney where you are in the rba, what else are you watching in asia? yeah, well, of course, plenty of markets closed with china, taiwan, hong kong, and india all shut, but we have interesting moves certainly in currencies that we are watching. the south african rand is extending those losses for a seventh day. it had its rating cut by s&p to junk, so that is an interesting move in early trading on tuesday. the ruble studying after that explosion in st. petersburg that killed 11 people all. but elsewhere across the region, it is meant to be, yeah, a little bit of weakness for we look intohen tomorrow with the fomc minutes coming out and the big jobs on friday.he end no one wanting to put extra bets into risky assets at the moment given how strong stocks have aen of late, you know, such stellar quarter and trepidation creeping in now. that i

we see gold selloff. the dollar rising versus the japanese yen. and the selling of the yen, traditionally viewed as a haven. them -- up byg of four basis points. a classicricks on -- risk on scenario. the biggest gain since june 29 last year. .he highest level the dax is at a record. it comes after the biggest weekly drop since january. macron is now the favorite to win the second-round runoff against marine le pen, removing the that france will leave euro. triggering its disintegration and forcing banks to redenominate their assets. more positive on the banking industry today. lenders are more sensitive to traders in foreign spending. all 19 industry groups are rising after the french election results. what a rally. this is the highest level for the french benchmark since 2008, that was the height of the global financial crisis. volatility is falling. the lowest level now since early march. after rising to the highest since june. youe is a lot more to tell about. let's look at the euro. breaking through the 200 day moving average today. it rose a

we see then how much bond trade in negative territory, is this a mini selloff is that search for yieldtinues? >> on government bonds specifically, the treasury, our view has been for a couple of quarters irrespective of trump, people underestimated inflation, at it now, they no longer do that. inflation has room to go up a bit, so we replaced some u.s. treasury positions, a couple of years potentially. we put that into inflation-protected treasuries. treasury yields have a little bit to go up. we targeted 2.5% by year end, but it is not something in my view that is to worrying, but within the bonds, if you look at what the central banks are up to , we are overweight u.s. high yields, underweight as an offsetting position in european high yields, so that could be interesting trade within the space. especially with the ecb this week. always great to have those insights. up, wynn macau delivering a better than expected profit. we will watch how the stock reacts in premarket coming next. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: this is "bloomberg markets: asia." i am haidi lun in sydney. inhaad: i am r

it will be a lengthy multi-year journey, but with walmart, you got a bit of a selloff, i think you got to do some buying. here's the bottom line, while the whole retail cohort we covered last week. if you want to find any retail winners, you have to look outside the box and outside the malls. it walmart, kohl's, the outstanding burlington stores or tjx all of which could be big business. >>> beer has become big business, turn your suds into cold cash. which big brewer could be ready to pour some gains into your portfolio. and why you should take the upgrades of amazon and tesla with a grain of salt? i'll explain. stick with cramer. >>> last thursday we spoke to rob sands, the ceo of consolation brands after his terrific liquor company had just reported a phenomenal quarter. and he told us that sales for constellation's number one beer brand, corona were so strong that they're propelling the whole entire industry. in fact this one company alone accounted for a quarter of the growth in the entire beverage alcohol business and not just beer. that's in the united states. that's more growth

all of the indexes are on pace for their worst day since march 21 when we had that significant selloff. leading the declines, the financials and energy. a familiar team, the banks had their worst month in march since brexit. a little bit of bearish leadership. bucking that trend, we have health insurance trading higher. rate for thement 2018 medicare advantage are coming out and it looks like 1.3%.ill be 1.58% versus these stocks are getting a little bit of a lift off of that. overall, we are looking at a risk off day. we look at the vix, we have it up 8%. its biggest jump since march 21. up three days in a row. gold is higher. look at this, the 10-year you basisdown five points. even bonds are rallying and the dollar is declining against the rent. let's hop into the bloomberg and take a look at the vix over the last two years. it is sharply higher at the beginning of 2016. it also spikes higher on brexit fears. right now, we have this calm, this complacency. we could see it's like higher on this policy from president trump. whatever it is, it could prove to be a pullback for stocks in

. >> you could create a significant selloff given that technical the week, market is wearing thin on if they are trying to gauge the market there is a higher probability of that happening. scorecard, at the patients needed to be maintained. you're going to see the draws in the u.s.. the big one is global demand. u.s., weven in the have had very strong survey data. doesn't turn into better hard data? consensus is 1%. we think it will come in at 1.4%. in terms of the global demand indicators, china had gang buster data. we don't see the weakness in the grand there. russia came out, hit their target. compliance looks good. the third issue is u.s. response. outexpectations take 850,000 barrels per year. that is not there in the market. when we think about the big draws, it is a two-to story. we are only in april. theyr: do we run the risk look at global inventories, they say we need to stand the test. the demand cover is right around the five-year average. >> they do this every time. they run out of patience. where are the inventory draws? they did this and 98, 99, they did this again in

the worst sector of the s&p 500 right now, on pace for us -- for its biggest drop since that big selloffors the action first quarter to some degree. this, thelook at white is bank of america and blue is the s&p 500 and in orange, we have the s&p 500 banking index. all are up to some degree, but the point to be made is from the beginning of march, bank of america went down 14%. the s&p 500 index down about 9%. sincep 500 down about 2% about one month ago. the banks have the worst month since the brexit -- had the worst month since the brexit -- there worst month since the montht -- their worst since the brexit. -- says that he thinks that the first quarter is an inflection point relative to profits. when we look at trading revenue for morgan stanley, we have a great chart that shows trading revenue relative to fixed income currencies and commodities had been down, but then higher for several quarters. they expect this to drop back down, taking the banking sector with it and he thinks 2018 estimates for the big banks are going to have to come down to credit deterioration and that overall,

. ♪ cory: in the midst of monday's market selloff, one notable bright spot was snap. received nine new buys after a cool reception. analysts come from firms that received banking fees from snap. one of those analysts is giving snap the benefit of the doubt. he is head of internet research at oppenheimer. >> clearly the stock has perform well since the ipo. investors do like it. this is a very interesting company, 75% of the 18-24-year-olds using the platform, but can you get everybody else. we have done some work that we think was insightful, but if you look at the history of tech ipos, they generally come down after that initial pop, and while there is a double gain from the share price today from a we think investors would be better off waiting for a lower price. the underwriters tend to be more bullish. you came out with some great numbers showing the average target price is higher for the underwriting firms the non-underwriting firms. >> it is interesting that since om bubble, we have this pattern where underwriter banks tend to be more bullish, 69% of irmsunderwr

these are three indices that have rallied since the initial selloff post the brexit vote in june lastm not going to show you sterling against the dollar. i am going to show you the intraday swing between the pound and dollar. this chart takes the spread of the high price and low price for sterling on any given date, and it goes for over a year. in the last year the only time this was a wider spread than yesterday was brexit, and october the seventh. that was the day of the flash crash when sterling was down by a matter of 6% in a matter of minutes. sterling jumping 2.2%, the most since january. it is down by 14% since brexit. volatility measures surge before the french election on sunday. germany appears to be a relative area of haven. dax has reached its lowest level since january 2015 relative to the price of protecting against euro stocks 50. that is fascinating. vstoxx bothd climbing this month. hitting its highest level since the aftermath of the brexit vote. investors were telling us coming using germany as a protectionist -- protection against unfavorable outcomes. he compared

that theto remember price today is what the price was before the selloff in large.is about the same price as the algiers meeting september 28. prices have not been willing to go much about that. we think it will go about that in the second quarter with refinery runs going up globally. -- a real real delete bite in production cuts hitting the market. : this ties into your call yesterday, where you saw potential for brent to hit into the 60's. if we don't hit a deal, you have a much more bearish case. >> yes, we will have the confounding of markets getting much looser in the fourth quarter, and financial markets getting more bearish. alix: what is that price? ed: that could be $45 in agreement. alix: we were just of their couple weeks ago. -- just there a couple weeks ago. ed: it would have an impact on the world. it would have an impact on the u.s., where we are seeing at least 800,000 barrels per day. potentially even more in 2018. that would slow down the momentum considerably on the u.s. production side. alix: we did not see that fall off. they can still sustain 2

the price today is what the price was before the selloff in march.ut the same price last september 28. prices have been not willing to go up much about that but we will think they will go about that through the second quarter with refinery runs globally going up and with the real bike in the production cuts hitting the market. they did not hit the market in the first quarter, this is the time it takes to get oil from the middle east to east asia and the u.s. >> a call yesterday, the potential on the back half of the are for brett to hit in the 60's, if we do not get a deal, you have a much more bearish case. >> we do because we will have the compounding of the physical markets getting much looser in the third quarter and fourth quarter. we will have the financial markets getting more bearish, driving the price down. >> what is the price? >> exhibit $45 without an agreement. >> we were just there a few weeks ago. >> we did not quite get there. it was have an impact around the world, even an impact on this current boom we are seeing in the u.s. where a

cautious, if you let the euphoria get the better of you this morning you paid for it when you saw the selloff the afternoon. guy in georgia, guy? >> caller: hi, jim. >> guy. >> caller: i want to thank you for all the great advice over the years, i want to know about ban coe san ander. >> i have to tell you. i have done a lot of work on san stander is a great way to play in european, because i think that spain is ahead of the turn, not as good as germany, but we may have to default to some etfs that can play the banks, but as a spec, i really like it, i'm glad you mentioned it. let's go to dave from illinois. >> caller: jim cramer, from the home of chicago o'hare airport, thank you for taking my call. jim, it is widely known that your favorites in the airline space are southwest and dwell that. today i would like at american airlines, american airlines is the largest carrier, not surprisingly, china's market share of international air traffic has been growing squeezing out carriers such as quantum pacific. while american maintains a share in china's southern airlines. so, jim, can you stretch

there was a big selloff even with car dealers like automation. everybody fled those stocks.good quarter. the stock goes crazy. it is closing in on general motors. caroline: letcaroline: -- caroline: let's bring our viewers that again. $40as been rising up past billion. for dipping below $45 billion. it is gaining in the yellow. we have to remind ourselves that ford makes almost 100 times the amount of cars that tesla does. tesla opt out less than 80,000 vehicles last year. ford made 6.7 million. at what point should we be wondering whether this is indicating? >> this is a stop, tesla, the trades on hope. ford and gmr down because the market says it was as good as it will get a few months ago and it is probably not bad but it is not great. there is no growth. there is a bunch of hope in tesla that the model 3 will take off and the company will get cash flow positive and be profitable. at that point, the model 3 is going to be the thing that makes or breaks the company value because if they do not turn out the financial results after they showed the growth everyone has been ho

round,en gets the second good trigger a selloff in equities. it's very dying area.try,e banking which is rising today. industry, which is rising today. this is the banking industry, which is rising today. it was a record discount. the concerns are the french election and the valuations and the up coming earnings season. some say they are checking european bank earnings this year. a lot is ached in, to use such an expression. the big week, deutsche kicks off the european earnings season. this is a chart i've been keeping an eye on all week. it shows the euro dollar versus the pound dollar three months risk reversal. this is the white line. these of the levels we saw in february. risk is not as elevated as it was in february when the suggestion was le pen had a probability of winning the election. that was the highest. was, the risk reversal rate at levels back in february it hadn't seen since the height of the financial crisis. the bearishness of the euro hasn't hit the levels of the pound pre-brexit against the dollar. that is the blue line right there. levels of te