senior economist at the nonprofit upjohn institute for employment research in kalamazoo, michigan. christopher o'leary, let's work away backwards. can you explain what president trump's executive action when it came to unappointed insurance he signed this weekend, what it did in how it compares to what was offered under the cares act? guest: good morning, john. thank you for having me on. pleasure to be on washington journal. certainly i can address the executive order. i read it. theink i understand objective. up and talke back about this whole idea of supplementing unemployment. it is interesting. there have been eight recessions since the eisenhower administration. every one the federal government has extended the duration of regular state on employment insurance benefits. there was a modest additional compensation added during the great recession in 2009. $25 added. check.d to every benefit it went largely unnoticed. recognized the existing unappointed insurance system is inadequate in many ways. in particular in terms of income replacement. , think the executive order let's ho

was brightest.n john: christopher o'leary, senior economist . spent time studying on the planet. when it comes to today and what is happening right now this enemy. how many americans are currently receiving some form of unemployment insurance but are from state or from the federal government. guest: lastly, the report comes out every thursday morning. 31 million people were continuing to claim on unemployment.en 17 million were regular state beneficiaries, or the programs. there were about 13 million of the pandemic assistance which is available for self-employed, contract workers and others who do not qualify for regular state benefits. and there are several categories. pretty simple, there you might not meet the eligibility requirements. but your home taking care of kids were in school. but you could qualify under unemployment assistance. so is about 13 million people receiving that. 31 million people john, is a staggering number. john: do have a total of how much has been spent unemployment insurance additionally because of the coronavirus pandemic. has anybody told the yet. g

joining us now is sarah house, wells fargo senior economist. i like that you put the u.s.which is wrapped in mystery, inside of an enigma. what are you expecting from the job numbers? sarah: i think in terms of the continuing claim numbers that we will get today, we will see another tick down. when we look at the week that this covers, this is the continuing claims over the week, the new jobless claims are the first week of august, and we did see new coronavirus cases begin to fall over that period, so there are hints that the virus situation is looking a little more stable. we think that the jobs market is going to follow that closely. we are expecting to see some further improvement in terms of the job situation, but the pace of that improvement is going to be much more mild than what we have seen over the past couple of months. francine: window we know if some of these jobs that have been lost are actually permanent? how long does it take for that to take hold? sarah: it could take some months. we are still in the initial phase of the bounceback, so we have seen some re

christopher o'leary is the senior economist at the upjohn find them onu can their website. you for your time. guest: thank you. my pleasure. host: up next and in our last 30 minutes of our program this morning, we will be joined by the mordock to preview hearing of the michael flynn case in federal court today. stick around. we will be back. ♪ >> binge wash book tv this summer. saturday evenings at 8:00 eastern, settle in and watch several hours of your favorite authors. we are featuring programs with the late award-winning author toni morrison whose books include song of solomon, and beloved. as we feature programs with award-winning biographer robert jarrow. binge watch book tv, all summer, on c-span two. perjury case against president trump's former national security advisor, michael flynn, will be reheard by the full u.s. court of appeals. judges to decide whether a federal district court judge must dismiss charges as recommended by the justice department. here the case live today at 9:30 eastern on c-span and at c-span.org. or listen live with the free c-span radio app

stephanie kelly, aberdeen senior st. -- aberdeen senior economist.omberg. ♪ ritika gupta time for the -- ritika: time for the bloomberg business flash. i am ritika gupta. last week mark zuckerberg defended his company's coffee can strategy before congress. this week he is showing how he does it. facebook's instagram photo sharing app is launching its close of -- it's clone of tiktok called instagram reels. in germany, commerzbank has abandoned its goal for a full year profit. losses tied to the falmouth of -- to the failure of wirecard -- commerzbank trying to emerge from a leadership crisis. both its ceo and chairman announced the resignation last month. another european carmaker is reporting a big hit the coronavirus. bmw's automotive division posted a $1.8 billion loss in the second quarter. the pandemic forced factories around the world to close for several months. one bright spot, bmw says sales volume's have started to grow in china. that is latest business flash. focusone asset class to on his gold continuing to hit all-time highs. ,oining us

well, daniel tomlinson is senior economist at the resolution foundation — the body behind that researchnd. 0ur good morning. tells what you found. our key findings we are publishing this morning is that even though over the whole time period since the job retention scheme began in march, 9 million people have been furloughed for at least one free week period. actually, the number of people we think are furloughed today on this day that employers are now being asked to be making contributions is significantly lower than that, less than four and a half million. . that is good news and that means that people haven't moved back into work and the job retention scheme has been a good successful policy so far protecting people's incomes and living standards from the shock that happened when the lockdown was imposed on businesses across the country. the concern is that we have seen the signs and our headline is about postponing easing moves and that has affected employees and wages. yes, and today is the start of a three month long process in the phase—out of the job retention scheme. from toda

morning, a discussion on state and federal unemployment insurance with christopher o'leary, senior economistt the institute for employment research. we will preview the review hearing of the michael flynn case with washington times justice department reporter jeff morlock. live "washington journal" at 7:00 eastern tuesday morning and be sure to join the conversation with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets. ♪ ♪ >> the contenders, about the men who ran for the presidency and lost. a change political history all week on c-span. on tuesday, the 1884 presidential candidate james lane. >> now, the political action group emily's list holds a women in politics conference with the joe biden and new mexico governor michelle lujan grisham among the speakers. this is 3.5 hours. 35th anniversary! >> happy 35th anniversary! >> happy 35th anniversary, emily's list. >>

christopher o'leary is the senior economist at the upjohn institute, you can >> we take you live to arizona where vice president pence is excepting an endorsement on behalf of the trump campaign. the arizona police association will announce its support for trump's reelection. this event is hosted by the campaign. [applause] >> president donald trump has media,off the liberal and he's had an unwavering support and commitment to the rule of law and to the men and women who place their lives in the line every day to keep communities safe. we know he has our back. we have his back. [laughter] -- [applause] >> use me. the arizona police association is proud to extend our endorsement to donald trump for president of the united states of america and his vice president, mike pence. [applause] >> at this time i would like to give a special thank you to vice president mike pence for coming to the great state of arizona to accept this endorsement. mr. vice president, could you please come out? [applause] [yelling in crowd] [applause] [booing] hello,es. pence: arizona! [applause] vice pres. pence: offi

let's discuss all of this with the senior economist. when you take a look at yields in thailand, there falling, suggesting we are expecting further rate cuts down the road. it is already at 0.5%. trinh: that is ripe i think today is going to be an easy call for markets. some people are expecting a 25 point betas cut. it is an easy call in terms of monetary policy. the situation in thailand is anything but easy on an economic frame. for monetary policy, they have done everything they could to cut rates to 0.5. they also introduced funds to stabilize the bond market. had importantly, the bond weakened a bit. it is still expensive. all those things have been very helpful on the market for thailand. factnnot really change the that thailand is facing a significant economic challenge and one in which everyone is asking whether or not the change of guard for the ministry of finance or the blt are going to bring meaningful change and economic momentum. even before covid, the economy had been trending much lower than other asian economies. much

the senior economist is still with us. in terms of the performance of the u.k.s the rest of seems to havek. done worse in the second quarter than other european countries. but is that just because the lockdown fell more squarely into the u.k. second quarter, we were later into lock down so it did not hit the first quarter quite so much, but we are much more reliant on services in this country. what is it that is weighing on the u.k. economy? pierre: i think you are right. has to do with being two weeks away from the start of the lockdown. that being said, want any european economy has introduced --, there is an argument to be greaterfavor of the extent of fiscal stimulus we saw in many european economies, as well as the labor market that has benefited economies like has been aere there lot of part-time work that many have. it's kind of putting an impact on things. i would put little thought in gdp figures at this stage. both because it is partly and because the brunt of the economy shock is still to come. it will come when it furloughs across -- sorry? a great a

senior european economist at legal and general.avirus could have re—entered the country through freight shipments. it comes as the country's largest city, auckland, has been put back into lockdown after recording the country's first coronavirus infections in 102 days. the four new cases are all members of one family, but none had travelled recently. bars, restaurants and schools there have been closed — and workers are being told to stay at home. for more let's speak to shaimaa khalil, who is our correspodnent in sydney. certainly the family had not travelled abroad. they have travelled abroad. they have travelled abroad. they have travelled a bit in new zealand i understand but after 102 days without a case, this is hugely disappointing. tell us more about the investigation into how and why these new cases might have emerged. i think that is what is concerning the health officials most, is the fa ct the health officials most, is the fact that up until now they haven't really established wide, or the source of the infection, which

we welcome now stephanie kelly, senior economist at aberdeen standard.us your take on the british economy, how it is doing. stephanie: with the jobs report is showing is clearly there is demand destruction through the covid crisis. we are seeing workers, younger workers, low skilled jobs most affected. that is important for the issues around income inequality, structural challenges across markets. you look at the numbers and you think, that is rough, but you think of the furlough scheme in k., wheree in the u. there is a lot of job protection, but they are looking to remove that. deciders may have to whether to keep people on or lay people off. david: what about brexit? doesn't that kick in at the end is that priced in at this point? i think everyone has enjoyed a break from the never-ending uncertainty with brexit. but it is still there. there is wide expectation they will get to a narrow trade deal, but as investors, we have to think about what that means. that does mean potentially tariff-free access to european countries, but it could also mean trade

that is simona mocuta, state street global advisors senior economist. talk top, i will get to u.s. labor secretary eugene scalia about the jobless numbers coming up here, we will talk to x.rtin mucci of payche ons is "balance of power" bloomberg television and radio. ♪ david: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television and radio. we turn to mark crumpton for bloomberg first word news. mark: national economic council director larry kudlow tells bloomberg president trump will exercise his executive powers if congress not agree on a new stimulus deal. details onprovide whether the president will provide a deadline as talks continue to stall. >> the talks are rather stalemated. there was a better tone earlier this week. through last evening, there has not been any breakthroughs. that is unfortunate. mark: meanwhile, nancy pelosi and chuck schumer invited white house negotiators to continue talks towards a deal. secretary steven mnuchin confirms he will meet with them shortly. the united states is placing sanctions on 11 chinese officials and allies in hong , for including carrie

with the border still closed, no tourists, no international ners.nts, big foreign ear senior economisteing increased by the rbnz tomorrow. she says this recession is just moreng started and aggressive monetary response. shery: new zealand is looking at opening up the borders for some quarantine for international travel but a very limited first step, isn't it? paul: the most baby of baby steps. look again maybe opening up quarantine free travel to the cook islands, which is a very beautiful archipelago. 3000 meters out into the pacific ocean. it has barely 20,000 residents and all of those residents are new zealand citizens. such a tiny market but it is a symbolic first step. the move will obviously benefit the cooks economy than the new zealand economy but there are other changes going on as well. new zealand citizens coming back to the country now will have to pay their own charges for quarantine which is upwards of $3000 for a single person. there will be exemptions in some cases of hardship, but some important changes underway for the border of new zealand. we will have to wait and

eat out to help out initiative offering discounts on meals to kickstart the hospitality sector senior economist published shahr says that the capital could lose its reputation as a fun place to work we've got reaction from the public. people still want to meet up and find a way because people are getting bored at home as well so they craving some social contacts i'm sure things will still go on maybe not lunchtime but maybe after work but the but will be displayed the filter for now to pull you just do what you want to get over this. thing is that we're here to be in place for london because i would want that's what i hope to have you know get back to normal it's going to take a while but you know yes because we're going to take their we take safety 1st that we can enjoy ourselves personally i think life's too short yeah and if you know there's been a tragic number of deaths because of this whole thing and people can respond the way they can respond they won't just be london if that happens to be everywhere a lot of people by name a comfortable working at home so they're want to go back to work

she served on the transition team for president obama and is a senior economist. she has been advising the biden-harris campaign. rick davis,by political contributor. give us your point of view, what this residency would do over the next year in the short-term for the u.s. economy that would be different from what we see from donald trump. the first thing is my is theanding of the plan first thing they will do is address the national strategy associated with fighting the virus, the pandemic. we would not have a conversation now about a recession if there were not this pandemic. i think that is the top priority, to get us out of this chaos that is dislocating families, households, schoolchildren, university professors, everybody. businesses, everybody. is the economy has got to get back on track, but we can't without a national coordinated strategy. david: rick. rick: good to see you tonight. this is rick davis from washington. on of the things i wanted to ask you, your sister school, the university of michigan has got the consumer sentiment index. from politico ru

ahead for all of us no one will be left without hope or opportunity a spring in gareth leather senior economist with capital economics in london gareth what do you make of this this whopping 20 percent drop in g.d.p. well this figure is shocking but they're also not a surprise either the economy was locked down. most of the fall of april in most of may as well and when that happens is no economic activity taking place and so the figures are a surprise i think the key point to make though is that the economy actually grew in may and june is probably going to rebound even stronger in july so that the recovery is already begun but it still means that g.d.p. now is about 17 percent below its pre-crisis level you know we've got green shoots of recovery as you say but there are other factors as play a play here for the british economy not just the pandemic. of course you've got the brakes it uncertainty as well so that i think will weigh on sentiment especially if we don't get a trade deal with the european union within the next few months but it's important to know that it's going to be a long and d

but many economists including a senior economist at glass door, who spoke with nbc news says today'sumbers are a sign that the economic recovery is losing steam. millions of americans are still out of work, and as of this afternoon, congress was not able to reach a deal for a new relief package, as initially hoped. time is running out for those families still desperately in need of a lifeline. this afternoon, minority leader chuck schumer argued the democrats are willing to compromise if republicans meet them halfway. >> we are committed to negotiating. and as we said, we are willing to make compromises. we are -- our bill, the heroes bill is at $3.4. theirs is at $1, so the speaker made a fair offer, and you should have seen their faces. absolutely not. i said, you want it to all almost all in your direction or you won't negotiate? they said yeah. so we are trying to compromise. >> let's bring in nbc news congressional correspondent leann caldwell. is chuck schumer -- is the way he's describing it the way that our reporting bears out? >> so, katy, first, the big news is that mnuchin

catherine birch is a senior economist from anz and says the bank had been factoring in this trade surplusal months now and a lot of that is due to the resources exports. things like iron or in particular. as china's economy is really recovering earlier than most of the rest of the world given they went through the worst of the health of covid—19 earlier, things like increased infrastructure investment and other stimulus measures. that is actually supporting demand for australian economies like iron ore. and that was catherine birch talking about the trade surplus and actually there was the bad news which i will tell you now. for the second quarter, retail sales fell on those three months, sales volumes suffering their biggest ones in two decades and a quarter. israeli retailers facing a huge consumption drought as victoria, which of course is the country's second—biggest state in terms of economy and population, it's locking down to fight the coronavirus. the larger than expected drop suggests that consumer spending will be a drag on growth figures in the june quarter. we know australia h

eat out to help out initiative offering discounts on meals to kickstart the hospitality sector senior economist publish our says the capital could lose its reputation as a fun place to work we've got reaction from the public think people people still want to meet up and find a way because people are getting bored at home as well so they craving some social contacts i'm sure things will still go on board because of you know it's but i don't believe that you know london is still. out of the best places to work in but you know yes because we're going to take their we take safety 1st are we gonna enjoy ourselves personally i think my sushi horse yeah no it's only going pretty drinks after work probably are just being you know social distancing in the lie. but i believe it's not just not quite as it was but it definitely still feels like we did have a very strong team her to her husband previously. meanwhile the founder of pimlico plumbers in london says he's fired those suits refused those who refused to return to work charlie mullen says workers need to get back to the day job to limit damage to t

eat up to help out initiative offering discounts on meals to kickstart the hospitality sector senior economist publish our says the capital could lose its reputation as a fun place to work we've got reaction from the public. i think people people still want to meet up and find a way because people are getting bored at home as well say they craving some social contacts i'm sure things will still go on yeah i know it's only going pretty drinks after work probably are just being you know your social distancing and the like. but it's still it's not it's not as quiet as it was but it definitely still feels like a bit of a ghost town from her. has been previously to be dead really you know or see not nothing has happened for months history pushing back into a nightmare if you're going to pubs again but in the last summer is not how you mean the vibe you know the happy people are but i am it's good to see this side of that is what it feels like a ghost time compared to how it used to play so. annoyed life i couldn't really comment i went out last 2 to 3 fraud is ago. and that was. where it's all good

a senior economist will be with us.arnings from japanese automakers show the extent of the coronavirus impact. we will hear from vivek vaidya. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. virgin australia outlined restructuring plans or new ownership as it looks to survive the coronavirus downturn. bain capital will cut 3000 jobs from the workforce. will be discontinued and international flights suspended until the global market recovers. virgin australia collapsed under $5 billion of debt in april. holdings isgraham the first to branch out of core operations. it brings a range of financial services, with new products aimed at existing users of its ride-hailing and food delivery apps. it is to roll out a micro investment line called auto investment to allow users to save money and borrow cash from their traditional banking partners. amazon has won the u.k.'s backing for a minority state. minority 15% stake was substantial -- will substantial we can comfort -- competition, but if amaz

. >> joining me now is senior political economist, stephanie kelly.amon javers still with us some strong words from larry kudlow he's out there telling people the trump administration is handling things well what do you see as the biggest difference of a trump continued administration opposed to a joe biden one? >> i think with his comments being economic minded and seem to be more business friendly, the reality is we are in the middle of an incredible global recession. the u.s. is not immune to that we have 30 million voters out of jobs i think that is the difference maker. can the republicans win the argument that the trump administration has done as well as he could or will he end up getting blamed particularly with his key voters that are also going on those unemployment benefits >> if you look at both tickets, there have to be marked differences and similarities what are the key differences from an economy standpoint that you you are seeing >> they are actually and genuinely at a cross roads in the united states around the shape of the u.s. polic

morning, a discussion on state and federal unappointed insurance with christopher o'leary, the senior economistt the upjohn institute for employment research. ofwill preview the rehearing the michael flynn case with washington times justice department reporter. what she spends washington journal, live at 7:00 eastern, tuesday morning. be sure to join the conversation when her phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets. ♪ >> here's a look at our live coverage tuesday. at 9:30 a.m. eastern on c-span, the full d.c. circuit court of up three hears oral argument to determine whether a federal district court judge must dismiss the perjury case against michael flynn as recommended by the justice department. in the afternoon, our campaign 2020 coverage includes vice president pence accepting the endorsement from the arizona police association in tucson. at 7:00 p.m. eastern, senator ed markey and represented of joe kennedy face each other and a senate primary debate with three weeks to go before the massachusetts voters decide who moves on to the general election as the democratic candid

there senior political economist. frank -- both francine and i want to take a moment here to rephrase china and the united states. for that matter, china and its expression, with europe as well. what is the relationship right now with president xi with the leadership of europe? stephanie: well, i think that we have always seen this kind of push-pull between the united states and china. europe and china. in many ways, what exists in europe with regards to china, transparency, around doing business or technology transfers, all of those issues -- the u.s. and europe share those concerns, the approach they take tends to be much slower collateral and slower moving in europe as opposed to the u.s., with president trump. interestingthe most things i find, stephanie, is one of the few bipartisan issues in america, the general anti-china tone. do you perceive that a president biden would be that much different in final outcome from a president trump? stephanie: i think if we split it into the kind of ways it is playing out wit

financial hubs such as hong kong and singapore are also in recession robert scott is a senior international economist at the economic policy institute he joins us now live via skype from north potomac maryland good to have you with us robert so what can countries do with this terrible dilemma the need to balance their economies against protecting people's lives. well i think 1st and foremost countries have to get the virus under control if we look around the world trees arse's south korea germany italy new zealand that have shut down for long periods of time and got the virus completely under control were able to reopen. in the united states and the other hand we had a very poor as an ineffective shutdown doctors out to the leading expert in us has estimated only about half of it was about 50 percent effective it just did not do the job and they opened up too fast and as a result we've gotten a huge outbreak of new infections and economy is suffering but complete lockdown is a disastrous they for for economies in any country what about localized lockdown just perhaps that the future. cases appear in

businesses can start up and and grow more easily so we've got robert scott to talk about this senior international economist at the account policy institute he's in maryland in the u.s. thanks for your time so 1st of all this actual report to tell us a little bit more about it why it comes out and why it's held in such regard this is used by the world bank both to allocate grants to different countries and is also used by businesses to make investment decisions so it's part of the infrastructure. business environment studies there are other providers of ranking like this. also make similar ratings as well but in this one in particular the governments themselves are running the data well the same time they're also voting on the use of these boards and allocating funds at the world bank the governments are voting members are the core problem right so they go back to the original problem he said is that it's the governments which have to provide their own data so that i guess is quite susceptible to being manipulated. that's right and you know this is the problem it's really you know a great inflation problem

joining me now from west sussex is ruth greg, who‘s the senior uk economist at capital economics.al that the economy shrank by a huge 20% or more stop and that would bea 20% or more stop and that would be a biggerfall 20% or more stop and that would be a bigger fall than a scene in many other countries. and it would satisfy the definition of two consecutive quarters of falling output. and so, i guess that if a figure, if the fall wasn‘t quite as bad as 20% drop, then that would be better than expected. however, it is clear that this recession isn‘t anything like any of the previous recessions we have seen. the fall in output has been sudden and vast. it is eclipsed the peak trough all that we saw, say in the global financial crisis. the context, that was a 6% fall over five quarters. in the great depression, that was a 7% fall over10 depression, that was a 7% fall over 10 quarters. so if we are right in thinking that there has been a 20% fall in economic activity over just two has been a 20% fall in economic activity overjust two months, that would clearly be very unprecedented in

our guest is an internationally renowned economist who held senior positions in the japanese masterye and the imf p or that conversation at 8:40 am if you are watching in hong kong. western union is maintaining its decision to forgo full-year guidance as it plans for cost cuts amid the pandemic. we spoke earlier to the ceo. customers --ving 75 countries. we want to reach out to them. lot todigital media a communicate with them. i travel also, essential travel. as we go to the countries where we believe that the environment is more safe. i am currently in europe. i traveled commercially to europe. you know, we are taking care. we are looking around. we really have a home team taking care of our people. that is the most important thing for us. >> one of the things ceo's are wrestling with is pandemic fatigue. it is getting hard to work from home. how is the morel situation at your company and how do you keep it up -- morale situation at your company and how do you keep it up? >> i was talking to another ceo yesterday. rale issues.e mo people like to be together. we are connecting. we l

way forward when it comes to colleges, we welcome beth akers, senior fellow at the manhattan institute and formally serves as an economistwhite house counsel of comic advisors under president george w. bush. it is great to have you with us. give us a sense from your perspective. what is the strain and stress being put on colleges across the country this fall? beth: to be frank, it is really a financial one. colleges and universities, especially those that focus on that immersive in person experience for their students, in other words, a very expensive one, they are in trouble if they cannot bring students back. that is because a surprising amount of their revenue comes from housing students on campus. the dorm fees, the food services, and the other auxiliary services, even things like parking. colleges are having to really battle with whether it is to bring students back and try to keep a hold on the obit crisis on campus, or have to forgo those revenues. it is a really sticky point for a lot of colleges. had somelot of these sticky points before the pandemic. there is a lot of strange -- strain on financial business mod

senior banking analyst at wells fargo. mike, it's good to have you. we just heard a more objective -- not objective, but when you're a banking analyst, there is some favoritism there economists say they're looking at financials. when other people say there's value there, how much value might there be given all the headwinds facing the sector. >> we think the banks might have the ability to increase by 6% in the next 18 to 24 months i think it's underappreciated just how much heavy lifting the banks are doing and how they'll be able to pump their way through this, and banks are experiencing four 100-year events at the same time. the decline in the net interest margin the worst in 100 years. the decline in the worst traditional banking methods, the worst in 100 years, total revenues, worst in 100 years banks right now have a level of reserves for problem loans equal to half the level actually experienced in the global financial crisis so, you know, we think that the foundations are strong and earnings could be like a coiled spring if and when we have more of a positive light on the economy or vaccine or some other, you know, measures that get the economy going. >> yeah, and th

economists are forecasting a smaller increase in last time. police have arrested media type cone and democracy rating thejimmy lai, offices of his -- raiding the offices of his newspaper. seniornational editor jodi schneider joins us now. why is this arrest so significant? is it his age? his wealth? and what does it mean for other democracy activist? -- activists? jodi: he is well-known. significant that way. and also the way in which it was gotten. they arrested him and then they the offices of his flagship newspaper in remarkable fashion. something we haven't seen in hong kong. there were nearly 200 officers entering the offices there. they had obtained a court ordered search warrant. this is all very different under this national security law. fate of against. and there is also the significance to the pro-democracy movement. it is meant to send a chilling signal to them. the message that the bear is sleeping. intended to make a real statement the way it was done today. marching arog 72-year-old man out in handcuffs -- certainly, these pictures are sending the message. companyes in his dipping initially and then surging later in the hong kong session. they first went down.