september, december, into 2017? >> right now, september would be too early. likelyr looks much more if the economy continues like it does. world will not fall into recession again. of global, slow recovery scenario continues, then a december hike looks very likely. anna: it seems that monetary policy setters had to walk a fine line. a wanted to call on fiscal authorities to do more, but they look at this as if they are out of tools. what is your view on the balance that is needed globally to stimulate the economy? >> honestly, if you read between the lines, monetary policy has more than reached the end of what they can achieve. they can try to do more, but the impact on the economy is extremely limited, which brings us to fiscal policy. this is why we have this discussion around the world. it is the same discussion everywhere. we are in a low growth environment. we have two little investment around the world. therefore, we do need fiscal policies to support monetary policy. fiscal policies providing tax incentives, doing fiscal stimulus itself. we do need mor

you can see how much we have surged for september. september now beats december.he case last thursday. >> the answer he gave was, he basically asked, should we look out for a rate hike as soon as september and he said yes, maybe, which, what are you going to say, no? take both of those off the table. it will be interesting to see how durable the czarist actually as we go through the week. we got data that was all right, not much market movement. everyone is looking forward to the jobs report friday. , you mayg question have wage gains or personal incomes, but expectation is so low, it tells the fed that it has been seven years in the market has been right the whole time. biggeryes, this is the rack drop of we can go slow and we do not have to be quick here because inflation is below inflation expectations so noted to get them to move, you need jolt out of the environment. you probably need a big wage or a big jobs number that pushes the unemployment rate down and it's not just the result of falling labor force participation, something to speed them up is what we n

i don't think they move in september. i think it's predicated with the fact that feels like rates want to go higher. the real place to find valuation, they're still cheap. i still think the landscape is challenging going forward. but you can't fight the money flow and it's in the banks. bank of america looks like it wants to retest the level. that sort of slow and steady wins the race. >> fisher said this morning that the labor market is near full strength at this point. unless friday is a dud of a report, no excuse. >> i think actually, they will. >> this is up from what, 20%? i think they should because there's enough sort of everything's lining up well enough to do it now and if they don't and something else happens between september and december, they can't do it then. that's a problem for them. i think they should do it now. if you figure -- almost one-year highs. the housing market, knock on effect. on a durable number. we've had a sustained recovery and we're starting to see wage gains. having said that, i think yo

that happens in new york city on september 13th. okay. now, today, if you didn't know, is national dog day. so we couldn't end the show without celebrating a dpu of our favorite four-legged friends. take a look at our traders with their dogs. >> i didn't know you had two dogs. >> who's dog is that? >> that's mine. ellie. >> grasso's got cats. >> rare breed of dog. only a real man can have exotic cats. >> guess so. and two of them. >> british blue. >> they're not alley cats. >> trade school. all right, so with these futures in mind, we want to go around the horn for some best in show. pay attention. best in show. stock picks. i'm going to go reverse. guy. >> changing things up. >> mastercard's been a stock we've talked about since the inception of this show. people will complain that the valuation is too rich, but having come back from europe where nobody seems to take american suppress, it's clear mastercard and visa win. i'd take ma. >> for me, best in show is something that shines even when things don't look that good and today, if you

september 20 its endeavor 21 -- and september 21.ies a little softer in today's session. 18 out of the 19 industry groups lower on the session. the ftse a little softer as well, down by .25%. dollar weakness yesterday, dollar strength today. the bloomer dollar index -- bloomberg dollar index up .3%. we will be talking to bnp paribas later on in the program. by freezingriven output at all-time highs in saudi arabia. citigroup saying you should take some caution. brent down .3%. 75are up one basis point to -- extra supply coming to the market, you set that up, yields up at the long end of the curve, too. let's get to emma chandra for first word news. a monstrous wildfire has forced 80,000 people to flee their homes -- the fire forced the shutdown of interstate 16, leaving driver stranded for hours. the british government plans to get tougher on accountants and advisers helping their clients avoid taxes. the treasury says these sanctions would make would be enablers think twice. at the summer olympics, the fourth gold medal for simone b

hard to believe we're closing in on september. temperatures right now are still very warm across the area. 75 degrees right now in wilmington. 77 in philadelphia. little bit cooler in cumberland county down to 68 right now in millville. due points right throughout the weekend hovering middle 60's. we're kind of in a steamy category but not in the oppressive category humidity-wise as we head into wednesday, it will start to creep back up. tomorrow, again we stay in the steamy category into tuesday before we get very humid into wednesday and then a significant drop-off thursday, the first day of september, and some more crisp like air will be building in across the delaware valley. overnight, a warm one probably can't have the windows open, a few passing clouds dropping back to 70. average low should be 66. monday temperatures soaring back to 90's. all is relatively quiet on stormscan 3. some of that precipitation trying to work its way eastbound but it will continue to dissipate we'll stay dry throughout the overnight period. >>> c

from thise ask september -- expect from the september meeting?r's comments over the weekend in jackson hole were interesting. to say there is no doubt there is ample room for more easing. he said in all three dimensions, which means further asset purchases perhaps as action on the negative rates introduced in january. in terms of asset purchases, analysts are telling us that we may see things- like rail projects and hospital projects that are financed by local governments in some public corporation. money going through that way ,ather than helicopter money which the governor has said the bank won't do. his comments this weekend seemed aimed at some analysts saying the bank of japan is running out ofpolicy room in terms further easing. these comments seem to go directly against that. >> the boj says it will be undergoing a comprehensive review but how can that possibly affect their policy action moving ahead? the review was announced at the last meeting in july and it is one they have not done for sometime. they will be reviewing their policy for

i think september could be a dicey month for stocks like that.rida. >> caller: jim, i have a speculative position in a small biotech. >> because you framed it like that, will i bless that idea, because that is ever speculative. let's go to mark in utah. >> caller: booyah from behind the curtain. it seems like it would be a good investment, because they're set up to export liquid natural gas. >> i can't go with it. the man who built the company is no longer there, and he's the reason we got involved in it. no go back. glen in new york, glen. >> yeah, big boo-yah to you. i wanted to ask you about a company that deals with the shortages, international so shortages of freshwater. >> don't know it. of need need to work on it. john in texas. >> caller: my stock is yelp. >> i like yelp's quarter. i think the stock delivered. when they deliver, they tend not to deliver only for one. and that is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens thearket. k

the case against a september rise, the september last thing yellen was to do -- on the other hand weave seen before that if we step back from raising rates suggesting there is lack of confidence, the can bring the stock market down. in many ways if we get a strong report on friday, they will go ahead with the rate hike. mark: that means one more this year? two more this year? the majority leading -- leaning toward to. -- leaning toward two. one is their preferred option. is it one or two for 2016? brendan: i don't think they have any more clue than anyone else. it depends on the data. at this point, i think one rather than to. mark: what can we take away from jackson hole besides that? yellen speech talked about the federal reserve's toolkit. she says the toolkit is appropriate for now. it opened the door for a wider discussion about raising the inflation rate, maintaining the federal reserve balance sheet. what did you make of that side of the debate and what it means for policy going forward? ifndan: it sounds as professor yellen is not keen on raising the inflation target or any o

joe biden will appear in ohio on september 1. the president has to philadelphia on september 13.ylvania and ohio are both critical battleground states another record-breaking night for bruce springsteen and the eastern band. -- the ets show at street band. night's show lasted four hours. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. yellen'sfter janet speech, we heard from mohamed el-erian. he pointed to the next jobs report as being key to whether the fed will hike september. she confirmed that the market had too low an expectation for september. she reminded us yet again that that the fed remains data dependent. they will be having a very close look at the next jobs report. i did not find anything really surprising and her speech today. -- in her speech today. surprise me that she did not move forward in terms of speculating about what other tools the fed could do. inflation?about discussed that the fed could boost its inflation target. is there an argument to be made that the inf

curve to hear and the probability of a rate hike in september. these two things are reasonably well correlated. let's talk about -- if we start getting into rate hiking territory, if we put september the pricele, how big do you think the front end of the curve is? >> for us, i think it's not necessarily the front. for us the sweet spot on the curve is rather the five-year part of the curve so our recommendation is to go short. selloffve a potential it's all based- on the nst figures, potential he , train going into the numbers and we think it doesn't make a lot of sense to the long here, the five-year part of the curve seems very rich. we can also see some flattening, and we think it doesn't make a lot of sense to the long due to high yields. guy: a lot of money has been piling in from the bond market, a lot of money. we really are in spectacular territory in terms of pricing right now. how big a drop could you see? say that it was to change even a fraction; how big a drop do you think we could see? >> well, i think the drop in yields, that is no

we've reported there would be an event on september 7.ons they -- they havehave to pay has ramifications on the stump. has 230ay, apple billion. so they still have plenty of reserves to sit back on. matt: are we going to see more cases like this coming from the european commission so many governments have quid pro quo arrangements set up. cannot be theand only ones up to it. >> i cannot possibly speculate on it. there is speculation they are being be example. apple is the wealthiest publicly traded company in the world. making an example of apple suggests there may be a trickle down and a warning shot across the bow. there are companies that are in dublin, so they are probably going to be watching this case with great attention and trying to establish its relevance. matt: alex webb from san francisco. nejra: coming up, we speak with at 4:00 eastern. tomorrow, tom keene hosts a conversation with fed up vice-chairman stanley fischer a.m. in new6:30 york. definitely one to watch. this is bloomberg. ♪ . . david: it 2 p.m. in new york and 7 p.

rajan steps down on september 4. hundreds of flights have been canceled in japan thanks to a typhoon. the weather agency has issued heavy rain and flood warnings. the prime minister's office warned of possible landslides and damage from strong waves. the u.k. should avoid any drastic steps corporate taxes or similar measures as it prepares to start talks on leaving the european union, so says the swedish prime minister. he told bloomberg that such moves would make discussions more difficult. u.k. chancellor philip hammond has expressed readiness to reset fiscal policy through corporate tax cuts to support the economy. dayal news 24 hours a covered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . i'm shery ahn. this is bloomberg. thing -- anna: thank you very much. juliette saly is standing by in hong kong. good morning to you. nintendo has been getting a boost. shinzo abe dressed up as super mario at the closing ceremony for real. back on e

through the end of the year, raise in september or december? better in december or september? >> does it matter will it have an impact? probably will if they raise or don't raise. difficult to foresee the impact so we don't play the game. a slightly different take whether or not the market believes her. my take, the market doesn't think she has control over the bigger forces that are impacting rates which are things like disinflationary pressures coming from europe and japan. demographics. secular change revolving around technology and productivity. overnight fed funds rate doesn't change any of those dynamics and those are actually the things that matter. the market probably, if you want to anthrommorize the -- >> big word for friday. >> i apologize. >> we can take it. >> okay. saw a spike in the quote/unquote stock market and saw the iyr, real estate and vmq, sector ef f, and vanguard only with a 1% gain on the week. saw utilities spike. those were the areas that you would tend to think would sell off on hawkish talk, and they ripped. that's telling you that the market doesn

september, coming up, is a very special month. tell us about it. >> it's childhood cancer gold is the color for childhood cancer. so starting september 1st, we have got some kickoffs, some illuminations around our valley, we've got some great supporters. we have a ceremony at 11:00 a.m. at the "welcome to las vegas" sign with some of our county commissioners. we're excited to be launching our campaign on september 1st. we have illuminations throughout the day. at 7:08 illuminating the high roller. we're really excited about that. downtown summerland at 1 summerland drive, we're illuminating their building at 8:00 p.m., going gold for childhood cancer, and at downtown experience, we will have a ceremony where the canopy is going gold, and >> i love this. this is great. let's talk about the averages when it comes to children that are diagnosed. what's the average age for diagnosis of childhood cancer? >> 6 years old. >> no kidding. and if you've met any of these kids, it's like it's the brightest, most amazing child, every time. the

is it tomorrow, is it september 12th, september 30th , october 18th? >> i want to go with c, >> it's earlier. >> yeah, it is a little bit earlier. can you believe it? the latest sunset of the year is 8:25 and today it's going to be 7:26. >> wow. >> september 12th it will be all the way down to just before 7:00. >> that's great for us because we go to bed pretty early. we'll take it. >> we'll take it. >>> well, the out of town news may be running out of time. coming up, a look at the new challenge for the harvard square landmark. many sleep-aids have pain medicine but zzzquil is different because why would you take a pain medicine when all you want is good sleep? zzzquil: a non-habit forming sleep-aid that's not for pain, narrator: let's put this political promise to the test. ayotte: i've been an independent, strong voice ayotte still support donald trump for president? independent minded republicans across america put principle ahead of party and said no to trump. but not kelly ayotte. she says she still supports trump. ayotte: an independent, strong

megan: september 26, yes, it will be huge one.o see bigger audience for these kinds of debates. how do you debate ue a person like hillary clinton or donald trump. tom: all my conversations this weekend were trump, trump, trump . yet, secretary clinton has had a challenging few days. does she just hide out on martha's vineyard? is that her try j? -- strategy? an: you can make the argument that it does her more service to stay out of the conversation. her campaign has adopted a hunkered down strategy. little, butback a generally the strategy has been, put your head down, let the media storm around donald trump continue, and let's write this out. they will try to hunkered down and make the showdown in hos fra with a big lead. tom: peter huber is with us of bank.che it is one big distraction to the economics, the american vote. >> certainly. populist forces. rise.eme on the i think part of donald trump's popularity is reflected in that. tom: can we get right over to nominal gdp, animal spirit, people are fed up with it. >> the percep

this is september 13th in new york city.or more details and tickets, you can go to delivering alpha.com. they did famously hug it out at one of the delivering alphas. >> do you think it will happen this year? >> in entertainment news, moviegoers turned out in droves to see a late summer thriller shocking the box office predictions. landon dowdy has the predictions for us. >> welcome back. horror movies aren't so scare when i it comes to success at the box office with several performing quite well this summer. the new thriller from sony, don't breathe, about a group of teens who choose to rob the wrong house. spoofed the competition. $26 million in the opening weekend. that's well more than the studio estimated. as a solid return for a film that cost just under $10 million to make. this marks a string of sony hits. along with the shallows and sausage party. the films have been incredibly profitability. that's thanks to the modest budgets. don't breathe giving suicide squad a breather and keeping it from a fourth straight week

we think september is a bridge too far.e has changed lately from kind of the if they do another rate hike to when, but september there just isn't enough data. to your point, sara, the only issue could be if the job's number on friday comes in really hot after a 255,000 and 292,000 jobs report. then it does put the probability on the table, but we think the equation is more like december or maybe even next year. we've been saying all year we think the fed is on hold this year and does not do a rate hike. so december has kind of shifted after jackson hole to more of a 50/50. >> when you look at all the r reaction. it's only the dollar responding in significant fashion. was this a temporary move where we overreacted a bit to the content janet yellen was saying, and, in fact, is there no change really from what she's expected to do and that's wait for a decedent print in terms of data. >> i think a couple of things there. number one, the reason december makes more sense or even next year is you get past money market reform, whi

has pushed the next fed rate hike for september of 2017.market assets are headed for their highs close in a year as loose monetary policy boosts demand for higher-yielding assets. let's get more with peter can sell a. thank you for sticking around. we were talking about the impact that the fed has on emerging markets. you were saying, it has a bigger effect than political turmoil in brazil. you are expecting a fed hike in december. are expecting 25 basis points in december, and thereafter, a very muted pace. probably one more in 2017. the reasons for that are simplistic. gdpave seen sub-trend growth in the first quarter and second quarter. you are seeing muted deflationary pressures in the states. core inflation is reasonably high. headline inflation isn't doing much at all. wage growth, 2.6%. the levels welow saw precrisis in 2006 and 2007. francine: you don't need to pay people more because they don't feel it. >> not just that, but we are not big productivity gains. all of that says to me there aren't an awful lot of needs for significant

i mean, essentially if they -- let's say they raise rates in september.p 25 basis points in the short end i don't think it's determined how the ten year note yield will react. if it comes down or done go up at all, in that event it would mean that the bond market is saying we don't think that the economy can handle many more of these. maybe the risk of recession is increased and certainly inflation is kind of being more snuffed out before it even gets rolling. so all of those things are what the bond market is attempting to price in although it's a complicated message because of the rest of the world. >> although we sold off a bit, the vix still remains 13 and change. >> it's low to the naked eye. it's actually really high relative to how calm the market has behaved so there's still a bit of premium in there and we're ahead of a summer weekend. premium always comes out ahead of a weekend now that we have the one known catalyst outhmm. >> good to see you, michael. michael santoli. as we said, dow's up now 23. very far from session highs, triple digit. >>>

in this pasture september 27. 2014. the latest cow shot just a few hundred feet away. two weeks ago. >> they have come onto my property. and taken something from me. that's very valuable. >> . the killings cost him nearly 7 thousand dollars. and it's costing the community peace of o mind. >> . we have somebody that is doing this. and it strikes at the very fabric of our community. >> it's money the community their cross hairs. >> we put together ten thousand dollar reward. >> . i'd like to think that in today's economy. that that might be enough to get somebody to talk. >> . more eyes more ears and phones going off with anything suspicious. >> . if a suspect is caught. he faces a slew of criminal charges. including animal cruelty. and destruction of property. >> . felony that could mean jail time and fines. >> 24 year-old matthew weather spoon. sentenced to 24 years to life for prostituting a 15 year-old run away he met on the 16 street mall. prosecutors say at the end of the sentencing hearing the victim hugged the investigator who rescued her from the thoel hotel roo

september 6th and september 12th to make the minimum wage hike official. but the first vote is typically the most critical. now supervisors will wait to see if city councils will go along with the wage hike or pass their own rules to opt out. live in cedar rapids, dave meteorologist joe winters is here with a check on some seasonable temperatures today. good bye august and hello september! it seems the turn of the calendar coincides nicely with the start of meterologic autumn. highs remain in the 70s with lows in the 50s into saturday. as the east coast deals with heavy rain from a tropical system, our holiday weekend shapes up with dry conditions persisting at night. tonight: clear and comfortable. wind: ne 5-10. low: 56 tomorrow: mostly sunny, spectacular. low humidity. wind: ne 5-10. high: 75 fire marshal is helping them investigate a fire that destroyed a home this morning. it happened this morning at 2762 north center point road in robins. the fire marshal's office gathered some items from the burned house to see if they might have caused the fire. th

janet yellen's jackson hole speech was enough for september. pimco says the speech included nothing of note. on traders agree with goldman for the moment. the probability of a rate hike increasing to about 42% right there. on friday, the bloomberg view columnist told us jobs data could weigh heavily in a rate hike decision. with a muchlus higher wage growth, they would find it very difficult to resist a hike, probably september but definitely by december. such apends on getting report. joining us now, john from wells fargo management. we did not see all that much movement, a little increase in the idea we might get a september hike. the that is it. >> what she said was exactly what i wanted to hear. i hope the rates will go up and the reason is because the chair feels higher rates will not affect the economy. i think that means higher rates are actually positive. larry summers put out a blog post saying he was disappointed with the speech because it was not dovish enough. clearer that the fed would wait to see 2% inflation before making a move.

fed inig into the september.u see any sort of payroll number, the number coming out on friday that will change your opinion on whether the fed hikes? view is that the labor market is fine. the fed participants believe that. a strong number could increase the market implied probabilities of a rate hike in september. fed is going to look through that and focus on inflation numbers. those have been disappointing. not only in the united states, canalso outside, where you see inflation numbers disappointed in europe and last week they disappointed in japan. there is a global disinflation or a trend we think the fed is not going to be able to ignore in september. caroline: are you looking at the data when you anticipate a fed hike? it is difficult to read the views coming from the different members. they all seem to say something different. at the data.o look this is what we heard from stanley fischer, that the fed is going to be data dependent. we are looking at the data like the federal reserve's. we think the fed wi

is september live at morgan stanley?hans: the fed wanted to keep its option nobody -- its optionality . they are pointing into this direction. it is all about optionality. the question is the structure of the u.s. economy. dudley is absolutely right that the u.s. economy is looking ok, but it is only ok. look into inflation expectations. that is not ok. when you have an economy which has high leverage and low return of investment, and you go ahead and increase real rates, so that actually means you would have an increase of real rates which would not be covered by productivity, it would not be covered by better real gdp numbers, then under those circumstances, you would get a real appreciation of debt. then you get a real appreciation of debt, then a recovery is going to derail very quickly. there's another point to be made. that is the relationship between real rates and the fed financial conditions. the equity market has become increasingly dependent on real rates staying low. look at the headline revenues. look at cos

we mentioned 60-80% chance they raise in september. >> we never left september. our view was september or never. if labor markets were rolling over moving to december department make sense because i felt you'd never get there. if the april may data was a fluke, they would be right back looking at september hike. if you get a good number, we can debate on what good means. if you get a good number, i think they'll go. >> charlie evans out there morning how he thinks the economy is likely to slow down and a bad time to be raising rates. how much does something like that matter in this debate. >> there's certainly a core within the committee and charlie is one of them that would prefer to say let's wait. make sure inflation is 2%. gin up a little demand before we go. that's a minority view. i think yellen's comments were pretty clear. labor markets will move on forecast of inflation. i think charlie is in the minority at this point. >> if we do see a rate hike in september, does the market reabout poorly, does the market take it in stride. >> we're in the camp of a d

vonnie: that move -- that meeting is on september 20 and 21st.u look at treasuries, we are looking at lower yields and a flatter curve. well so itties as does not look like the markets believe that the u.s. economy will grow more quickly than it has been growing, or that it will reach that inflation target anytime sooner than janet yellen , in the next few years. that does not bode well. michael: she is making no promises because their position is, we do not understand what is going on in the economy either. she made a specific reference to the bond market and the idea that the fed does not know exactly why rates are so low and the sovereign market. there are a number of explanations including money flowing in from overseas, and the fed is not sure why rates are so low and why the markets are doing what they are doing. it is maybe a little bit surprising that they are reacting this way but it is part of the whole conundrum fed faces in trying to figure out what to do. if you do not understand what is happening, it is hard to figure out the prescr

also notice the daylight on the first of september. a 7:35 sunset by the 30th of september. there's today, the daylight getting shorts with the sunset at 6:5151. begins to mark a lot of changes across the bay area. your seven day forecast, temperatures stay in the 60s around san francisco. and for the interior valley, we go from an average of 84 on wednesday down to 79 on thursday and friday, 80 degrees. peggy and ra j, it's that time of the year where i'm scanning the long range models every day looking for our hopes of rainfall, so the first sign of that of course i'll be here to let you know. zwl can't wait. >> thanks, jeff. >>> still ahead, ride b.a.r.t. and get cash. we'll tell you about a new rewards program from b.a.r.t. an internet watchdog group will soon add "white lives matter" to a list of u-s hate group >>> happening now on facebook, an internet watchdog group will add white lives matter to a u.s. u.s. hate groups. they say it's often used by white supremacists as a slogan and now, they've learned they were switched at birth. they are from the same town in canad

whether september or december. we just got back from jackson hole and still wondering when that next fed hike is going to happen. it seems they're complacent when it comes into inflows and equities as well. >> seen strong inflows and it has been to a large extent because of -- about the fed and the ecb and the bank of japan even. there's something else happening in the markets hopefully make the market a bit more resilient even if the fed hikes a bit earlier than expected. the markets have been so weak since 2010. improvements in gro momentum. i will expect that to continue because of the easy monetary conditions. in the end, there's still the expectation, which i think is the right one, the fed, whatever they do, they will move gradually. if necessity hike in -- they hike in september, nobody expects them to be aggressive after september. if that's the case, the markets will be okay from that perspective. >> that's really surprising. you see emerging markets will be okay. it's pretty heavy -- when it comes to equi

september 38 calls.f ths and they bought 55,000 of the september 38 calls. paying 28 cents to open. breaking even. but here is the most important thin. they have about a 30% chance of being in the money september expiration.g. they have about a 30% chance of being in the money september expiration. so a higher probability bet to have exposure. >> a tremendous run, but a lot of inflows. em has gone from under weight and i still think it's an enor mus trade here. >> and "options action" is back on friday, full show. up next, final trade and also what do the traders do over the past 2 weeks? more on that straight ahead. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the

if the markets are off on the probability of september and they decide to move in september, the marketsthink it's right. you worry about the markets that much, then it's a crisis when thumping is fragile. this is supposed to be a normal rate hike, as vice jeff fisher said. -- as vice chair fischer said. what if they are trying to talk up market expectations so the dollar strengthens and that tightens everything for them without doing a hike? dr. posen: economically, you are right. they are substitutes to some degree. if you tighten the dollar, is not exactly equivalent to tightening rates. it basically has the same effect. was raising to medications wise, i think that would be seen as very strange. they are not going to want to do that. -- communications wise, i don't think it would be seen as her strange. there are going to want to do that. francine: the market doesn't believe that. our central banks in a bubble of their own? market is going to completely other direction. dr. posen: i think you are right to raise the issue. sometimes central banks, like markets, do get off in their own

remember, september we could have hot spells as well.sure over us right now locks us in a dry pattern again. this is similar to yesterday. storm scan three not showing a whole lot of activity for next few days. shore forecast is great a lot of sunshine. a few more cloud on monday, lower 80's today. we are up to 84 for the high on monday. cooler on tuesday in the lower 80's but a a nice stretch of weather pretty much every where across the delaware valley. like i mentioned we have tropics heating up, one storm over central atlantic so moderate risk for some stronger rip currents, pretty much this week for jersey shore, delaware beaches and ocean city maryland. keep that in mine. there is gaston 600 miles east of bermuda way out over the waters but waves starting to reach the east coast now wind at 90 miles an hour. staying over opened waters, eventually track ban off to the north and east. still watching this storm up vest 99l, we have talk about this for days having a tough time developing, still has 60 percent chance of developing in th

francine: don't rule out september. the dallas fed president said a rate hike is possible next month. u.s. job data on friday. the latest european stress tests. sizable hit.ered a uber takes a ride. i'm francine in london. tom keene is in new york. a most interesting start of the day to a most interesting week. the earning news, but i thought the italian bank workout was really interesting over the weekend. quiet, as always, but that will be front and center. it reminds me of how complex the calculation of dilution is. that is what it is about -- equity shareholders getting crushed. at howe: also looking reliable the stress tests are. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. taylor: one police officer was killed in a suicide attack in baghdad. authorities say they killed two attackers in a gunbattle. committing to the triple lot guarantee.- lock the former minister responsible for pensions called it to be scrapped. the backlash is growing over donald trump's comments over the parents of a dead muslim american soldier.

chance, there could potentially be a 20% chance in september.re are plenty of people in the background so you are obviously keeping busy. thank you. david, you have a big interview coming up for us in d.c. in a little less than an hour. speak with the secretary of treasury for international affairs in a few p.m. test 4:00 15 -- 4:15 p.m. eastern time. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: you are watching bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. out the headlines on bloomberg's wrestler news. for that, we go to mark crumpton in the newsroom. mark: uk prime minister theresa may's cabinet today concluded there is no -- no need to hold a vote before starting the process theolding britain out of european union. they risk alienating opposition parties. they believe lawmakers should cast votes before our 50th you's treaty. in venezuela, put opposition will try to sweep the suite -- strays tomorrow with the biggest margin years. they are put to death pushing for a referendum. he is wildly unpopular and the economy is suffering through triple digit inflation. they're

changes are coming in a big way for the start of september. lot of our labor day weekend plans will have to do with the path of tropical depression nine. we will get you up to date of what to expect over the weekend monday as well. a heads up if you are heading to or from northern virginia. phase 8 of metro st. roch work is underway on the blue line. trains are single tracking all of the time between franconia, springfield and ben dorr street. that means fewer blue line trains and bigger crowds on yellow line trains. be prepared. this phase of work will wrap up in about two weeks. >>> trash collection was cut in half in one local county a few months ago. residents are upset but the county says it is saving millions of dollars. we have more on this story. >> i have a freezer full of chicken parts because we don't want them to stay outside for a week.>> reporter: kevin has tried everything to prevent a weeks worth of garbage from smelling up his home and attracting animals in the woods that surrounded. >> we have freezers full of plastic bags fu

a private douglas described that september morning of that morning. so there was that mutual feeling that an important morale victory had been won. what did it all mean? well, when word got out to the piece negotiators and against belgian that the americans held here in baltimore that cancelled out our defeat and having lost our capitol two and a half weeks beforehand. and in a sense where we had a terrible defeat but now we had a great victory to balance it out. a few months later, february, february 16th, 1815, the war of 1812 officially ends. the treaty is signed on christmas eve 1814 and it takes awhile to get here and it is signed off on the 16th and the war officially ends. in a way the war ends as a tie. we never took over canada so the canadians and the british can legitimately say they won the war of 1812 but not entirely. they hope they could gain illinois or indiana territories. we could legitimately say that we held our own. the united states really in a way gained what it hoped to gain a sense of honor, respect from other nations and we c

will they have to do more in september, will the boj have to do more in september?r because of the way that the market has interpreted jackson hole, does that by them sometime? -- some time? to dohink they have something if they want to participate in the global upswing. is important for them. this would not be good news for their exports. generally, itapan is still very much a question of will japan do any better than the world? the domestican get consumer spending again and that is not happening. data: if you look at the today and you break it down, we have hr for you. this is the japanese consumer, the propensity to spend. it falls below 70%. the lowest since 2015. i think this tells an important story in terms of the difference between the american consumer and the japanese consumer. what it is that the bank of japan has got to try to impact. it is the psyche of the consumer. >> unemployment has fallen to 3%. if that was not a sign for me to trust in the future, my job is safe and i can spend. on the one hand, it is the bank of japan who needs to make sure that

, 21 september, 32%.t is the probability of a rate hike, increasing to 57% on december both of those numbers have been creeping up, if you go we actually saw the doubling of the chances of september hike. they had been moving slowly back, suggesting that increasingly investors are factoring in the possibility at least of a rate hike in september. let us get the risk radar, waiting for janet yellen's speech and wyoming, 3 p.m. london time. this is very are on various asset classes, msci asian-pacific down to percents of 1%. nearly two-week low. the dollar against the yen fairly flat, yen fluctuating in the wake of that japanese inflation data, coming in lower than expected, fifth month of decline. wyoming, andis in he will no doubt have a lot to talk about in terms of where his policy goes next to try and stop the decline in these inflation numbers. the dollar index down 1/10 of 1%, but it is headed for a weekly gain against the yen. increasingly as i said, factoring in increasing chances of a rate hike in

could we see a september surprise? new york's federal reserve president telling "fox business" that an interest rate hike is possible next month in september. we've got lots of big-money managers saying a rate hike could torpedo your 401(k)s.carro clinton's campaign. explain. >> it could, it could create a domestic me to effect where we're having -- essentially we have a real example of this. 2008 with john mccain, the economy tanked, and then boom, his campaign tanked, as well. we could have that with clinton because she would be seen as basically four more years of barack obama who got us into this mess. >> bruce, what do you think? >> yeah, barack obama got us into a huge mess. on the day he took office, january 20th, 2009, the dow jones industrial average was 7,949. it's almost 19,000 today. 100% return. i think that if there is a dip in the stock market, i think hillary clinton will survive. >> the market's up because of -- not the $20 trillion in government spending and some could argue it's also the federal rese

they will be reassessing monetary policy in september. thierry: yes.oj is disappointed in the markets. they have not been aggressive enough with expanding the scope or size of the program. the market has taken a long dollar view prior to the july meeting. it did not get what it wanted, and this moved to 199 or below 100-- to 99 or below unwound. can it go below 95? yes. will there be intervention? probably not. g7.n is a member of the the finance ministries determine if not central banks. -- it, not central banks. approval from the other members will be hard to get from the u.s. in election season were a lot of political candidates in the u.s. are worried about the implications of currency manipulation of run. abroad. the chances are they will not intervene. >> just very briefly, your outlook on sterling spiking today after the retail sales data. thierry: i think when i was on your show a few months ago, i sent it would go down, and it has since then, but we have not seen it go down in his . we get days like this were sterling rallies. a few days ago,

policy meeting at the end of september but there's also the november and december meetings, and wants to bring it back a bit and says of course, our decisions always depend on the agree to which incoming data continues to confirm the fed's outlook, so there is her wiggle room to avoid trying to

the first presidential debate is september 26th.pokesman for islamic state has been killed in syria. the media service says he was killed by surveying the group's defenses. he was a syrian national. it was impeachment proceedings continuing today. this after the president failed to sway senators who will decide whether she is permanently removed from office. she answered questions from senators for 14 hours in her impeachment trial. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle expect the senate to vote gainst her tomorrow. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2,600 journalists and analystses in or than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: mark, thank you. now let's turn to the state of housing. u.s. home prices rose 5.1% in june year over year. and you can see the library chart 3151 has an interesting comparison. prices have been rising since 2014, at least when it comes to the index. slowly but steadily. personal incomes have taken a dip lower. now in the last month, obviously, not so much. the idea, i suppose

september. >> i get the side of the year to date performance, but it is momentum the past month or so that has been dramatic. you take a look at the sectors, it is the best performing sector. that contest. >> great things for the broader market. not pretending by any stretch of the imagination, but the market doesn't get give the highs, right around the all time high. how do financials play into? ipg i understand why people buy financials. he mentioned an yeefr heated rsi and then talked about work itself off. that's right. bank of america can trade around 1600 clrs. levels we're seeing now back to reasonable levels with the stock not going down whatsoever. it feems like they're breaking out. my still favorite place in the stocks are the exchanges. cme for example, that's make k a a ten-year high. much better year over year and names like u.s. bank, which is very boring. >> i like long for a while. great, but it's a tiny move relative to what has been for years of this sort of back and forth, bu

william was born here in the house september 15th, 1857. he would be the second child to be born from alfonzo and louise taft out of five. the taft children were like most families today. they grew up in a loving home. hard-working. education was very important here in the taft household. whenever they were done with their homework, that was when they were granted the opportunity to go out and play with their friends. as a reward. the tafts actually lived very simple lives. they didn't dress lavishly. they would attend a lot of social functions. they also participated, alfonzo taft would create the house of refuge in 1851 for young troubled children with his first wife, fanny. this was to try to help young teen-aged children get back on the right track in society. louise taft, his second wife, she's one of the ladies credited for creating the free kindergarten movement for cincinnati. that's in the 1870s. and that stemmed from where she taught her son, william howard taft, as much as she could here at home and then she said it was time for

low eighties much cooler weather on theo way as we begin in september with september with >> that's a gorgeous shot out there of lake erie. a beautiful day. o it's going to be a hot one so where somewhere your sunscreen. 11:24 a.m. >>> most new moms know when the baby matthew should grab some shut eye to but not this lady. nap time this went nap time is one photographer laura does her the los angeles-based photographer has turnedn her instagram pagetu into a viral v sensation. when her daughterr jo joey maps, laura goes to work dressing her up as pop culture characters pop-culture characters, celebrities.pulct this is hans solo and chile. the next one shows the little girlsh with an apple genius gens bar employee.an app mom wrote employee of the month. here she is as a the little mermaid.e you can see by the look on her face maybe she's having a bad dream or she has gas. that could be. a giant bow and blond wig who could blonde wig who could that be?blbl and one of the most recent pictures just posted this week shows her as flash from / from guns and roses. >> she is going to be delig

they're not going to report their qi until late september. maybe you get a move up between now and then, i'm not committing new capital. but the trade i want to describe, i want to look out to september. it's not going to catch their earnings. it's a really sentiment trade and what i want to do is sell a downside put and buy an upside call, so it's not that convicted, but if i get the direction right, this trade's going to make money. here's the trade, when the stock comes about 55, 65, you could have sold a 52.5 september put at about 40 cents and use the proceeds to buy the september 57.5 call for 55 cents. your net debit is 15 cents. all you're going to lose is the 15 cents. as the stock moves closer, you're going to have losses as it moves to the call, you're going to have gains. here's the thing. if there's a big move back to 60, that looks like the level on the chart. i'll let my man speak to that. your worst case, the stock, 52.5. >> that's the opportunity here or the trap. when you're looking at something that's lagged, the hope would

first day of september is thursday. it looks like we'll have least a chance for showers coming on wednesday night into the middle parts of the day thursday. tropical trouble still brewing we've got two different depressions off north carolina and the florida coast. we're tracking those for us. and for us, it looks like a laudable labor day weekend. for now, exclusively, yours, the latest information possible from melissa mollet. >>> on the safe track surge that we're still dealing with until sunday september 11th. remember on the blue line, a lot of delays because of the single tracking between franconia and van dorn street, because of the safe track surge number 8. taking a look at 66 and 95, we don't have any problems. inner loop express lanes after the mixing bowl still a report that all lanes are blocked for paving. it was much more red when i first look at the situation, now we have a little bit of yellow there at the bottom of the beltway. this is what kristin wright was talking about, rhode island avenue, 10th st

the flags will be there until september 16th. a memorial service will also be held at the healing field on september 11th. /// ((michelle mortensen)) >>> coming up on good day a community is mourning the brutal murder of two nuns. ((kirsten joyce)) >> >> how the community is dealing with this.. and the latest on this investigaion... >> and colin kaerpenick is sticking to his guns after he sits down during another national anthem before his team played on saturday./// ((you're watching the valley's news leader... with brian loftus, kirsten joyce, sherri swensk and demetria obilor. ((kirsten joyce)) two beloved nuns found murdered in their home. police say a suspect has now confessed. hena daniels has the latest from new york mourners stopped by saint thomas church sunday evening to pay their respects to sisters paula merrill and margaret held. ( nat pop from video) she will help you. she helped all the people in our community. she helped me and my child. the women were nurses who served at a clinic in the poorest county in mississ