joining me now is seth carpenter.t to have you here. >> great to see you. >> you are a fed insider, former deputy director. give us a sense. what are you expecting aftwith press conference and statement? >> you nailed the right issues. at the top of the segment you said investors are looking for clues as to when the fed might cut. that's where fed chair powell and others have to be super careful with what they communicate and how they communicate because the market is looking for any signal that cuts are coming sooner than priced. we don't think there's going to be a policy rate move today. our thought is they won't cut rates until june. to get there, they'll have to reprice them. part of what i think powell's strategy is going to be is to try to say, look, we didn't hike rates today. inflation is coming down, but it's not at our target. it's not anywhere near our target. in fact, if anything, we need a little more conviction that it's going to come down to our target. so to try to push back a little bit that rate cut

seth carpenter is here to weigh in. >>> also breaking this morning, a landmark decision from the cop28e east, taking the first step away from oil and gas. we have a live repor

joining us morgan stanley chief global economist seth carpenter. our baseline view is that the first rate cut comes in june. we heard conversations, communications earlier in the week, the market reacted to what governor waller said and i don't think it was the reaction they were looking for. he was trying to talk generally about what's going on and that's always the risk when fed officials speak, particularly when it's chair powell. i think he's going to try to say they're committed to 2%, they're going to sort of assess it as it comes in. there's always the chance it gets a little bit -- he's going to try not to sound overly dovish. >> it's hard to sound hawkish, because the data is pointing him in the dovish direction, and that's the challenge? >> i think that's right. they have clearly come off of that sort of bias towards more and more hikes. that's been our call for a while. the market has priced that in now. it's going to be hard to lean too much. on the other hand, the point we tried to make for a long time, it's going to be a long road to