if shia gains power in bahrain, shia minorities in these oil-rich countries would also like to have a more influence. so they might be encouraged by what they see in bahrain. and iran has shia government, and it would try to take advantage of the situation. such instability disrupts the oil markets. >> so what do you expect will happen in the coming months? >> political leaders will probably offeree forms, but these steps won't do much to address the shias' frustration. this sectarian divide in bahrain has very deep roots and there is unlikely to be any rapid improvement. i expect the administration will stay in place due to the strong support of its neighboring allies. >> thank you, mr. hosaka. >> thank you very much. >> mr. hosaka from the institute of energy economics japan. >>> people in japan's northeast are focused on overcoming the challenges of the 22011 disaste but it won't be easy. they have to rebuild homes, businesses, entire communities. we'll show you their struggles and their successes on "the road ahead" every wednesday at 1:00 p.m. japan time here on "newsline." >>> e

if shia gains power in bahrain, shia minorities in these oil rich countries would also like to have more influence, so they might be encouraged by what they see in bahrain. and iran has shia government and it would try to take advantage of this situation. such as stability disrupts the markets. >> what do you think will happen in the coming months? >> political leaders will offer reforms, but these steps won't do much to address the shia frustration. this sectarian divide in bahrain has very deep roots. and there is unlikely to be any rapid improvement. i expect the administration will stay in place due to the strong support of its neighboring allies. >> all right, thank you, mr. hosaka. >> thank you very much. >>> a windy day here in tokyo and some unsteady weather in other parts of japan for the weekend forecast for here and elsewhere. here is robert speta. robert? >>> well, this evening, you have been seeing some thunderstorms actually across much of northeastern honshu. but now good news this is starting to taper off, especially through overnight hours and high pressure is ridging in

there was a fight within the shia sect, an element. and in this recent election the man who got the most votes didn't get the job, malawi. malky got it. he was able to stay in. he has a very tough job. just as karzai has a very tough job. and it's easy to look at it from the outside and say oh, my goodness, why don't they do this, why aren't they more like we are? i have no idea how i would behave if i were in maliki's shoes. but he has a big problem assuring the sunni element in the country and the kurds that it's in their interest to stay as part of that government and not break off and divide that country into pieces. he has a big job keeping the shia population, his group, from not asserting itself in a way that drives others away. he has a big job dealing with some elements within the shia group that are largely influenced by iran, the sadr and some of those people. he has a big job trying to maintain security in a country where the iranian influence, military influence and terrorist influence maintain security in a country where

is really turned into a sunni versus shia. kind of war throughout the muslim world washington has backed off of the libya style regime change operation in syria it's time to just let the syrian sort out for themselves what they want for a government in their country. syria's deputy foreign minister he says it's up to the opposition and its foreign supporters to make the first steps toward interacting a peace that you can see the full interview next hour that is a pretty. likely it is the very strong desire and determination of the syrian government from the very beginning to put an end to violence. the war is not the. government or the syrian people it is your thought of those who do not want to see peace and stability and security in syria particularly those who are calling and declaring every now and then for arming these groups for always to smuggling of arms and weapons into the syrian territory from neighboring countries. the fallout from the conflict in syria is being felt in neighboring lebanon street violence has been

it hadn't seen in years as who i am not about here but are moving to a real war between sunni and shia muslims and this is at least what i see in the last day. the reason the spillover from the chaos in neighboring syria shia muslims here generally support syria's president assad while most sunni's favor the rebels likewise lebanon's ruling calling led by the powerful share hezbollah is process while the opposition backs the uprising the situation is getting worse obviously in the region and this is having a spillover effect here in lebanon and where we're having to cope with the consequences of that there's also internal tension that's increasing there's a large flow of refugees and there's a lot of instability all around us. some though believe the problems in lebanon aren't only down to the crisis in syria local observers like spanish journalist thomas alcove etal says they are a symptom of a deep divide that's long bubbled under the surface but it's not it does there were many unresolved issues after the nine hundred seventy five one thousand nine hundred seventy war like religious

it's really turned into a sunni versus shia. kind of war throughout the muslim world and washington has backed off of the libya style regime change operation in syria it's time to just let the syrians sort out for themselves what they want for a government in their country party sarah firth's but with syria's deputy foreign minister he says it's up to the opposition and its foreign supporters to make the first step towards enacting a peace plan full interview in the next hour here's a preview. but actually it is the very strong desire and determination of the syrian government from the very beginning to put an end to violence. is not to look forward to a survey of the government or the sort of people who two zero or two of those who do not want to see peace and stability and security in serbia particularly those who are coolly and declare the every now and then for arming these groups for. smuggling of arms and weapons into the city in total from neighboring countries is. fallout from the conflict in syria is being felt in neigh

dangerous bowler more dished out of either liberal or not there are so many factions now sunni or shia salafi he's what's really bad everybody has weapons not only has belarus they may think but everybody in every house and they use them or thought about the shia. sunni neighborhoods exist side by side in central beirut and in recent years it's been a stable peaceful arrangement but this syria in fact means fear has now greet them feel very turn into a deadly bloody past which residents here desperately hope to avoid but doing it is nothing that is nothing to do with it so what's happening in their meeting at the moment this is a good thing you said early against the violence in lebanon yes some of the people had to leave because the would be forty five feet but you know how much is seventy he remembers all the major conflicts more than lebanon has gone through and as a chilling forecast about the latest trouble crueler you back what i see no reminds me of the nineteen eighty two in two thousand and six israeli wars and the one hundred seventy five civil war and the two thousand and ei

makeup could turn out badly it's a pity the divisions are being artificially stirred up between the shia and sunni populations the aim of the syrian opposition and those financing you know make it from abroad is obvious to me to disrupt peace plan grossly violates un security council resolutions those behind it. they want whether they're ready to assist in ending the violence and start a national dialogue or if there's a hidden agenda they're following it's aimed at regime change in syria. but that's the way the recent spate of unrest comes to syrian rebels reportedly kidnapped thirteen lebanese shia muslims returning from a pilgrimage clashes between pro and anti assad supporters and a lot of it on have also left a dozen dead over the last few days go live now to lebanon and who joins us on the universal peace federation thanks for joining us so if you are in beirut there among the what's going on do you predict more violence for the country. well it depends on the situation that has been an incumbent situation so far i meant to the kidnapping just like you mention the thirtieth and i h

because bin laden did not want to take on the shia until after they dealt with the outsidin fidels. and the logic here was the shia are smaller, at our beck and call and mercy once we recognize the i'ma, the faithful on the sunni side. and this is an interesting tact. zawahiri is asking for much more to exploit the secondtarian violence against the al awhite in syria. and that's important. because as sha reason indicates, that does play into another broadening theme in the wider middle east, which is this shia/sunni split, which is anchored on re add and tehran hostilities over nuclear weapons but also over this belief in re add that the last decade has unfairly advantaged iran. and so this is all playing out here, as well. so this is the interesting tactical shift we see here. let me talk about tactics, though, okay? tactics don't belie strategy. and here mary's point applies. to the extent al qaeda matters, it matters for what its overall aspirations are. and if it's not an aspiration that says only violence can bring change, then you've not got al qaeda. you've got something that

in this massacre most of them are shia. you're suggesting a lot of ethnic tension amid amid what many are calling already the early stages of a civil war. a life in beirut a political analyst many things for coming on today. thank you. julian a sunshine the occupy movement have much in common they both criticize governments and are often condemned by the mainstream media so now for the first time the world's most famous whistleblower and the leaders of the global protest movement come together here on r.t. it's going to be the latest edition of our signed his very own interview program they discuss the spread of the occupy denver. occupy sort of simmer for a while for the first week or ten days or something until there was violence. well yes i mean one of the police more outspoken on the words we did not provoke like a silence reading or you can record speech we took a nonviolent direct action we went and we occupied the squares that we could have a general assembly and starts talk about the world that we wanted to live in

a group of lebanese shia muslims kidnapped in syria less than a week ago being released raised fears that lebanon is getting dragged into its neighbors bloody conflict. has the story and the latest from beirut. apparently she doesn't we can't get to that report now but we will come in come to cost a bit later in the program since you managed to get it online for you let's move on from those who else we've got coming up in the program britain's not playing fair with the olympic guest list the countries banning world leaders accused of human rights abuses from attending the games but the king of bahrain accused of violence at home has been to dine with the queen we bring in the back story. counties under way after two days of voting in the first round of egypt's presidential election with results to early next week but the country's largest political force the muslim brotherhood already claims its candidates leading the race mohamed morsi is expected to face off in the second round against ousted president mubarak's last prime minister ahmed shafik the runoff will take place in the mid

big time a group of lebanese shia muslims kidnapped in syria less than a week ago being released this raised fears that lebanon is getting dragged into its neighbors bloody conflict that's getting late so this developing story live in beirut for us is. even more it could see now we know what we know about why they were kidnapped in the first place is good news they've been released but what's the story behind this. well catherine kevin why this happened this is actually the question that still remains open we're hearing here in beirut that the lebanese pilgrims that kidnapped earlier on tuesday in syria have indeed been freed they all feel ok and they're all unharmed and there right now making their way back home but actually who was behind these kidnapping and why this happened and even who the lebanese negotiators have been in contact with all over their release we have little information actually about this so far the incident happened on tuesday not far from the syrian northern city of aleppo near the turkish border the man were a tour in from iran through turkey and as soon as sh

it does play into another brought in theme and a wider middle east is the shia sunni split anchored on rihad and tehran hostilities over nuclear- weapons and the belief in riyadh that the last decade unfairly advantage pteron and we americans love to facilitate some of that by turning iraq over to the shia and doing other things. this is playing as well. this is the tactical shift. tactics do not allow strategy. al qaeda matters for what it's overall aspirations are, and if it is not an aspiration for overall caliphate, that only violence can bring change, then you did not have al-qaeda. you have something back in the day analogous to trade unions and social democrats. but it takes time, 100 years to 150 years before you develop the political process. but if we get to the point what all the heads of -- whether they want to talk about getting a new parliamentary majority in syria, i think that ideological battle is just about won because that means the voice of the people speaking through guys who may have been revolutionary at one time but are now in the revolutionary poulson -- so al

the taliban seem to be -- i see, at least, seems to be much softer on the shias. perhaps that would be an um b l umbrella under which he works, or people just die. naturally or unnaturally. >> thank you, sir. jed crane with the joint staff. just a question to you sort of playing off both of your presentations. what sign post can we look for from the taliban to see that they're negotiating in good faith or not? are there any lessons from nepal we can take for that? sort of along those lines, at what point are they no longer our enemy and become a group we're trying to create societal healing with? thank you. >> let me get this straight. what you're asking for is sign posts that they're cooperating, right? >> yes, sir. >> okay. >> i think that plays right into one of the key areas of research. that is, your normal metrics are no longer useful. for example, violence is, in fact, way down. it's way down because asylum numbers are way up. people have fled. so i think when you look at sign posts, you have your traditional metrics such as participation in the system, but

the hostages are shia muslims, returning from a pilgrimage in iran. the kidnappers are supported to beat -- are supposed to be rebels from the free syrian army. they began blocking nato rose in protest. >> small but acrid fires, and no shortage of tires to burn. the roads of southern beirut were in flames as relatives of the kidnapped men showed their anger. the man, all shia pilgrims, were kidnapped in aleppo in syria, apparently by members of the free syrian army, made up of defectors from bashar al-assad's army. this man is a brother of one of the men taken. he said the women were told to leave and the men were kept as hostages to bargain for the release of their own fighters, held by the regular fighters. the conflict in syria is exposing sectarian tensions in libya. this time, the leader of hezbollah intervened. >> the responsibility lies with the state. we call on everyone to be restrained. we can express our spats in civil and peaceful ways. we are going to work day and night so we can have those loved ones among us. >> his request seems to hav

with fears now the potential union could strengthen the position of the sunni rulers over a largely shia population professor mohammad marandi from the university of tehran says it is the saudi royal family along with washington both stand to benefit the most. this is basically for the survival of the dictatorship in bahrain because the dictatorship the king is immensely unpopular the vast majority of the people of bahrain want of the regime but unfortunately the west supports the saudis and the dictators but what ron is concerned about is that the saudi regime will attempt to annex i mean because the dictator is immensely unpopular here been able to keep control and in order. revolution he allowed saudi forces to effectively occupy the country it's very interesting that the people of bahrain despite all this this small country has put up so much resistance and i think this itself shows there are many weak. yes that lies behind the saudi regime but the iranians believe that the fact that the united states supports the bahraini and saudi dictatorships also makes them responsible for the b

the shia activists shia in iraq spreading into saudi know because it is out of vision for what should the united states in europe have. the interest of united states for the interest of the many european countries for the autumn save for the difficult all year for due to mutual interest which many countries are seeing it has more priority than the human rights of the bodies for example disseminate united states which as good as not just for syria sitting on bahrain is that is meant by that a president to defend america the president even though you might i've gone so saying that do not talk about buying decision because biden is improving itself and doing better whether people as emboldened feel if you will what is a one man died because of guess we have daily basis people are dying it is. fueling the really forces this is what i want to go but i've been saying this is what the americans maybe try to buy but that's not enough none of that a vision of the group did i read a cable at the time of these bahraini protests about eight months ago. and this us cable which we have published sa

that going all out to destroy that's the last thing they want is a democrat a democratically elected shia government in bahrain because that could cause severe problems when they try to attack iran so that's the kind of context. and just briefly you talking about that challenge to iran that would definitely provoke tehran in pursuing that nuclear weapon which is suspected of doing but now there's clearly a consensus that it isn't but that would give it reason to do so wouldn't. well absolutely i mean iran has had reason to do so for a long time i mean. the u.s. and britain have been going all out to overthrow the iranian regime ever since it came to power in the revolution one hundred seventy seventy nine but the plans are become a lot more in the last few years and especially since two thousand and one the plants have been increasingly developed and formulated. more and more specifically so. yeah that's a very real possibility and the iranian regime would be wise frankly to develop a nuclear weapon because i think actually that that would be the best chance of scuppering the war plans th

ethnic makeup it couldn't very badly it's a pity the divisions are being artificially between the shia and sunni populations . world powers behind it will come to the right conclusions and the right time. syria and those financing and arming it from abroad the grossly violating un security council resolutions just those behind it must honestly say what they want whether they are ready to assist in ending the violence and the start of a national dialogue or if there's a hidden agenda that forces you aimed at regime change in syria and it also looks the reason a spate of unrest on the syrian rebels reportedly kidnapped thirteen lebanese shia muslims are turning for a major clashes between pro and anti assad supporters in a lot of it on have also left a dozen dead over the last few days political analyst and journalist omar now xabi says western powers may be providing indirect support to terrorists which could destabilize the region. there are some serious internal divisions not necessarily about who supports us against i said it's more internal divisions between a group that is the side

by by the shia. jollity. under the prime minister nouri al maliki and iraq is still at war. it also has. fulfill the promises made to international oil companies so i think the aftermath of the major water. that is behind us and the little water is still going on and in addition to water i would have to see the reef. for you bring up the issue of greed here because ultimately here we have you know iraq is known to many archaeology archaeologists and historians as the birthplace the cradle of human civilization as we know thousands of years ago with sea marion's and mesopotamians and so on and so forth is this a chance of just big business overriding what could his what some just see as old history it looks like that it is greed in commercials. and then like didn't you. dissuade any iraqi government from leaking disaster in areas like a lot but i would say because it is a misplaced kind of greed. meant official looking ahead and not. oh right now of violence has been the government seems to connect iraq's recovery chiefly with oil cash to rebuild roads and hospitals but there

support for a cleric shot dead in lebanon his killing on the recent kidnap or going to have a nice shia muslim is returning from a pilgrimage a smart massive under arrest clashes have. left a dozen people dead in lebanon in the past week larry as a conflict in syria spilled into neighboring country. western and gulf arab states to stop fueling violence in the region and come clean about their motives and see more activist frankly in them she says for her needs to be felt on the streets. there's plenty of how her here but there's also plenty of sparks going on even new seeds being in a hard to rock south beirut dock my neighborhood there were young men on the streets and threatening the general peace clashes in the universities here at st joseph's university it does feel. very very tense here and hopefully the wisdom of all the some leaders will dampen this by let's be frank the americans have tried for years to reignite a conflict here between the sunni and the shia that's clear jeffrey feltman has made a many career of that since two thousand and five also the gulf countries and qatar

from the opposition heat cool for a boycott the people did turn out to vote in syria's parliament shia lections the elections taking place against the backdrop of instability in the country and the credibility of the very it's being called into question with the opposition boycotting the vote so that their participation the real question is just how serious a change will this election bring to the political landscape in syria and that's what we've been finding out i feel because we have some disturbance and some of this is ok we have to approve that we can move forward and we can overcome this obstacle here to vote for people who are like people who support shia people who like saying yes for syria no for to resume no for holding guns yes could be used for developing vic country there are no international observers here something some felt should have been an option authorities say the people seeing the very thing doing so objectively and the monitor at this poll told us there have been leave violations so far. everything has been going smoothly people are taking part in the my shoes w