we just got the case-shiller which mr. schiller himself came down here to the exchange to tell me and erin, it looks good. until it looks bad again, he said. but you know, we're starting to get some good news, but still, you are grumpy. >> i am a little bit. i think the fall position is is to rally. unless the really bad news comes out, the market is taking an acute rally. but it's enough for us to pull back a little bit. we're getting to that september-october period and we've seen so many times bad things happen in that period. so as things getting closer, i'm looking for downward movement. >> september does have the worst months in the stock market and october brings bottoms. big bottoms. let's get back up to erin. >> let get the buzz from the beyond the big board. trader with blue capital group, good to see you, sir. obviously, if you look at the futures, it's pretty clear which headline the mattered more for stocks. there's doug. and that would be, what just happened with housing. so what do you read into case hill is

case-shiller, 1.4% increase month over month. that was the second month in a row we saw an increase in prices. all of the home builders are up nicely here today, many sitting at month highs. the big debate is whether financials in commodities will continue to dominate. there is financial stocks in the last month or so on the top line. dominating the s&p 500. commodity stocks also dominating, as well. a lot of people are trying to argue now, that more defensive names like consumer stocks ought to do a little bit better in this environment, because many people have to be broadly invested at this point. here is the trader dilemma, quickly. many traders are bearish, but they're in fact set up for long positions right now. shortages down, the hedge fund survey from goldman sachs indicated traders were bullish over all. tradertalk.cnbc.com for more. rebecca, how are we looking at the nasdaq? >> hey, bob, we're looking good at the nasdaq. we did see a bit of an uptick on the consumer confidence data. one stock in major confidence, yahoo

and with case shiller we're already talking about old news. it's got a two-month publishing lag and it's a three-month moving average. the data that's published every month has data that's old as five months in it. so it's pretty old use. >> how do you do that? you're sort of gaming it a little bit. how do you forecast case shiller without actually having the data in. >> it's based upon median prices. and if you keep track of median prices in real time, it's actually pretty easy. the correlations are pretty high. the data's pretty meaningful. >> sam, given what he just said, can't we get that a little quicker? >> we can.. we can look at the current trade marketplace of umm and dmm, which is a forward-looking indicatesor of where people think home prices will be five years from now. >> you know what i like about this, people ask me all the time what's the difference between investing in gold versus gold companies or home builders versus housing? here you're getting an absolute pure play. when you invest in home builders, you're betting on how w

a testimony to the case shiller numbers out today. to date, two of the five properties she bought and rehabbed are already under contract for well over the amount she paid to buy and fix them up. >> do you want to keep doing it? >> absolutely. >> all right. so we're going to keep buying -- buying to rentals? >> the lower priced houses are absolutely on fire. >> in aurora, colorado a suburb of denver, realtor charles robbers knows that bargains are driving the numbers up. >> if you're a first-time home buyer at the low end, you're a kid in a candy store. if you can find one and get it under contract fast enough. >> he's seeing prices climb after seeing them fall as much as 50% over the last three years. >> what we have seen in the last three or four quarters is the typical prices going up. it might have 10 or 15 offers on it, we see that all the time. got a very nice full bath right here. >> he showed us three houses under contract or sold lately that wouldn't have sold a year ago. >> this is a two-bedroom, two-bath house. a very small

a testimony to the case shiller numbers out today. to date, two of the five properties she bought and rehabbed are already under contract for well over the amount she paid to buy and fix them up. >> do you want to keep doing it? >> absolutely. >> all right. so we're going to keep buying -- buying to rentals? >> the lower priced houses are absolutely on fire. >> in aurora, colorado a suburb of denver, realtor charles robbers knows that bargains are driving the numbers up.

because that's sort of what case-shiller is suggesting. >> right. el with, i think, you know, what i would say is, we haven't actually turned the corner as a leading indicator, but we're in the neighborhood, and we're loitering around the corner. the question now is, sustainability. and will borrowers and home buyers stay in the game? we have first time home buyers that are driving a lot of this, and they're largely in there, not just because of affordability, but also because of the first time home buyer tax credit. and so i think some focus is now going to shift to washington. what will washington do to make sure that we are turning that corner and not just stuck there for the time being. of. >> and suze, a lot of people think the economy can't move forward until home prices stabilize. but even if they stablize, you know, the damage is done. there are a lot of people that are under water with the mortgages they have right now. where do you go from there? >> we're not going to see a let up from foreclosures. that's the other side. the foreclosure p

the case-shiller index rode quarter to quarter.e index inventor is still cautious. >> i didn't say we reached the bottom. i said that this is very suggestive of a major turning point. we have seen other corrections like this. notably a year ago in early 2008, we saw the rate of decline of home prices suddenly get much small smaller. it looked good but then collapsed again. >> here are the three red flags. the home buyer tax credit for first time home buyers adding $8,000 worth of purchasing power and case-shiller is not seasonally adjusted and prices historically rise in the spring and mortgage foreclosures kept a lot hitting the market in q2. we already know banks are putting more properties out and there more inventory only means more pressure on prices, larry. >> big numbers for sales in places like california and florida, i noticed. diana, you know me, i just can't stop myself, when is the next housing price bubble going to start. >> the price bubble, we are way way away from that, 5 to 10 years. looking at 5 years before we ev

there has been a lot of debate about the case shiller numbers here. while most people think two months in a row to the upside goodness, there are plenty of skeptics about the home building numbers here. they are distorted, the skeptics it argue by the amount of foreclosures and by the amount of programs out there, the foreclosure moratoriums out on the state level, the modification plans out there. by the first-time home buyer program out there. nobody's quite sure what to make of all the numbers. it's complicating the understanding when prices and sales are going to truly bottom because withdrawing government support from these programs can dramatically effect demand and cause a downturn in the market. still being greeted as good news. deutsche banc and several other analysts were fairly skeptical when we're going to hit a home price bottom. they were talking about 12 to 18 months from now. retailers continuing to do well. this is a classic consumer discretionary group. chick co's one of the few with positive same-store sales, earnings report for the

, one half of the kay shiller index. horton added to goldman sachs conviction buy list. the home builders have been on fire of late. so there's some belief that perhaps a bottom is in for the housing stock. >> other even resource space like vulcan materials. 6 i think there's been a big run-up. you don't have to go straight for the builders. these guys that are related to building materials and building blocks literally are the guys you want to own. >> cement, copper, you go all the way down. you start to see that momentum pick up even more, right now copper is moving off china. it has nothing to do with us here. when you see copper move in a different manner affecting the housing here -- >> the problem is in the marketplace right now, everything is trending higher, so even though i'm still bullish, you have to be careful in a lot of these spaces. >> and the next shoe to drop is that first-time home buyers credit drops in the fall. >> and why just first-time home buyers? >> i notice. i can't use a tax credit. >> just lik

coming up at 8:30 eastern, robert shiller.or the precious metal. "squawk box" will be right back. when people say, "hey mike, why ford? why now? you know what i do? i introduce them to the most fuel-efficient midsize sedans... and suvs in america. i don't know if you've heard, but this whole fuel-efficiency thing... kind of a big deal. anyway, ford and lincoln mercury have you covered. in fact, they're your cash for clunkers specialists. they'll recycle your ride and get you a rebate of up to $4,500. how's that for going green? why ford? why now? why not? visit your ford or lincoln mercury dealer. tell 'em mike sent you. if you think it would help. but i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes places other laptops can't. i'm bill kurtis, and wherever i go, i've got plenty of room for the internet. and the nation's fastest 3g network. gun it, mick. (announcer) sign up today and get a netbook for $199.99 after mail-in rebate. with built-in a

the standard and poor'case shiller homerice index rose 1% from may to june. it's second-straight month t month increase. but those numbers are ill down 15% on aear over year basis. e federal housing finance agency also releasedata today supporng a recovery. its index shows pricesn homes with mortgages guanteed by fannie mae and freddie m rose one half a pcentage point from may to june. bothroups say price gains are being driven by first-ti buyersnd bargain hunters snapping up foreosures. >> susie: as paul mentned, a new reportrom the conference board today shows that consurs looking ead six months are much more confidenabout their own nancial fortunes. that should be good newsor retailers, because peopl concerned about their financ tend not spend. scott gurvey explas.an >> reporter: whethe economy hit the ids the retail sector fell o a cliff from which it has yet to recover. pele without a job or afraid of losing one just d't spend. maridriscoll of standard and or's says retailers have scrambled to adjust. >>n the last year we've watched retailerslow down the

the s-and-p case shiller home price index shows prices climbed between the first and second quarters....increasing almost three percent. that's the first quarterly increase since early 2006. gains of almost four percent were seen in san francisco and over four percent in cleveland. the slow growth also pops up in numbers from the federal housing finance agency, which finds the price of homes with conforming loans...those $417-thousand or less...were slowly climbing in the second quarter, up a little more than a half percent from the first quarter. using this agency's measuring stick, only three states register positive for home price changes over the past year: north and south dakota and oklahoma. the latest new home sales figures are out wednesday. the cash for clunkers idea may not be over yet. while it's too late to trade in a gas guzzling car, this fall you may be able to put some stimulus cash toward a new refrigerator. the department of energy is putting the final touches on a policy that will use almost $300 million of stimulus money, to offer consumers rebates of $50 to $200 d

certainly the case shiller data showed a slight uptick.e should also remember these data come primarily from the spring when mortgage rates were about .75 of a point lower than today and when unemployment unfortunately was lower than it is today. so i don't think we've seen the bottom of housing. >> how much further does it go down if it hasn't bottomed? what are you talking about, sales or price or both? >> i think sales are likely to kind of hang where they are at the moment. i think price is going to continue to sort of slip down in the second half of the year. >> wow. okay. fred glick, would you agree with that assessment? >> i think we are at what's called a peak in the market which is p-e-e-k because people are just kind of looking and saying i get that $8,000 tax credit, the rates aren't bad. i think i'm going to have my job for a while so why don't i take advantage of it a little bit. the people who are still under the 417 loan amount who get the fannie mae programs, the fha, the va 100%, they're still there and kind of okay. well,

on the economic calendar: tuesday, the s&p case shiller home price index for june is released, and consumer confidence for august; wednesday, the july reports on durable goods and new home sales; thursday, it's weekly jobless claims and a first look at second quarter g.d.p.; friday, personal income for july and august consumer sentiment. >> paul: my guest market monitor this week is mark skousen, editor of the market letter "forecasts and strategies." welcome back to "nightly business report," mark. welcome, glad to be with you, paul. >> paul: you maid some very good called on your last visit with us in early march. you predicted the stock market was bottoming out, and the economy and employment would continue to weaken. all were right on the money. i compliment you. great call. >> it's very unusual to be able to pick the bottom. they say you can never pick the bottom of the market, but i lucked out on this one. >> well, where do you see the market and the economy heading now? >> well, my prediction is rather startling, or at least it was several months ago, or back in march. i'm predicting

on the economicalendar: tuesday, the s case shiller home price index for je is released, consumer confidce for august; wednesday, the julreports on durable goods and new me sales; thursday, it weekly jobless claimsnd a first look at second quarter g.d.p friday, personal income for ly and august consumer sentent. >> paul: my gut market monitor this week is mark skouse editorf the market letter "forecasts and strategs." welcome back to "nigly business rort," mark. welce, glad to be with you, paul. >> pl: you maid some very od called on yourast visit with usn early march. yopredicted the stock market was botting out, and the economy and employment would contin to weaken. all were rightn the money. i compliment you. great call. >> is verynusual to be able to pick thbottom. they say you c never pk the bottom of the market, t i lucked out on th one. >> well, whe do you see the market and the enomy heading now? >> well, my predictn is rather sttling,r at lea it was several months ago, or back in march. i'm predicting a dow 10,000 by the d of the year. we're at 9400 so it los like we have a possib

look at today, the durable goods and new home sales, and yesterday the case-shiller home price index, consumer confidence better than expected. last week, the philly fed, the empire state and existing home sales numbers all better than expected. no wonder some traders are saying pessimists, put down your pens, the title of one report i saw this morning. >> bob, nasdaq just showing positive now. big cap technology stocks mostly showing modest losses. yahoo, apple, google to the down side, but the consumer discretionary names that are higher. bed bath and beyond, children's pace showing a gain of 1% as is costco today and buffalo wild wings up big, almost 7%. there was initiated biover at jess up and lamont. i'm watching phrma stocks today, bus there is activity behind myriad genetics, and human genome up 15% on some takeover chatter, and there has certainly been a lot of options action around that stock today. let's send it out now to chicago and phil lebeau who has some developments on the cash for clunkers. what have you got? >> the final numbers in terms of total vehicles sold and h

bernanke dominates the news on the top line, the case shiller home index coming in positive two months in a row that got traders talking here. you can see what's happening with the builders, many hitting new highs for the year. same situation with building material stocks. many of the big names are up 60 to 100% for the month here. you've got names like owens corning up 100 prers. trex on the upside. black & dekker also on the upside as well here. some of the other names, i want to point out the debate going on with the case shiller numbers because there's a dispute about how much distortion there is going on in the numbers. some people are talking about the distortions around the foreclosures that are out there. and tenth other side of the issue, the foreclosure moratoriums and modify cases going on from the individual companies that are out there trying to modify some of the loan sidewayses. then you have the first-time home buyer programs. who cares? because if you take these programs away it, creates more distortions down the road. so there's some arguments how much we can put into

shiller's been right lately. that's going to be at 5:00 with melissa and the traders. >> we've got about 25 minutes before the close. the dow is up 135 point at last look, trying to hold on to the gains. >> employers cutting far fewer jobs than expected last month. is the labor market finally making a recovery? up next the ceo of careerbuilder.com tells us what he's saying. >> then coming up after the beshlgs remember when congress blasted those auto executives for flying to washington on private jets? well, guess what. we'll discuss whether congress's $500 million purchase of eight planes smells like hypocrisy. they got some gulf 5s, i think three of them. i can't believe that. that's coming up at 4:00 eastern. we'll be root back. others buy the car of their dreams. during the lexus golden opportunity sales event, you can do both. it's an opportunity today. it's a lexus forever. special lease offers now available on the 2009 is 250. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i want everything right where i can find it. tdd#: 1-800-34

the s&p shiller home price index was up 1.5% in june, almost three times the increase of the month beforeck was the first in three years years. aaa says travel will drop dramatically compared to next year. american families will be putting the brakes on travel partly to save money and partly because after school has begun in many parts of the country. >>> more signs of life in the housing market. ben bernanke gets to keep his job. joining us now talk about that is bob bower, portfolio manager with $150 million under management and one of his category. brian wesbury with us and chief economist with first trust advisers. thanks so much for being here sfp. >> thank you, maria. >> good to see you both. let me kick it off with you. bernanke for another four-year term. good idea? >> think so because we don't want to upset the applecart right here. things are still very delicate. he is a student of the depression, even before weot

the case shiller housing index showed housing prices were up for the first time in three years. is that important and where do you see growth? >> yeah. that is important. the housing slide is ground zero for the recession and the problems with the financial system. it is very encouraging that long slide is coming to an end. probably have some more house price declines to go, but they'll be modest compared to what we've been through. the growth right now occurring in health care, educational services, federal government because of the stimulus. i think as we make our way into next year, we'll start to see growth in wholesaling, transportation, trade. by this time next year, we'll see professional services kicking in, everything from accounting and legal services to management consulting services. >> what about the earnings season? what's your assessment of what we just saw? a lot of companies reporting better than expected numbers but largely due to cost cuts not really seeing much revenue growth, are we? >> that's consistent with the idea the recession is coming to an end, but t

tuesday, watch for case-shiller's housing numbers and consumer confidence. wednesday, new home sales and durable goods, that is all for us tonight. have a great and safe weekend. now stay tuned for "options action" with melissa lee. that is coming up next. don't miss it. we'll see you next week. >>> welcome to "options action" your front row seat to the smart money. i'm melissa lee, here's where the action is tonight. breakthrough. stocks bust the training range, but does the smart money buy the rally? we'll tell you. >>> game on, why some options traders are playing this name for a takeover, but should you take it to the next level? we've got the answer. >>> and the up side call. perfect aim with target earnings. >> what i want to do is buy an august 42 44 call spread. >> now they set their sights on dell. "options action" starts right now. >>> welcome to the show, these are the traders on the desk at the home of the world's third largest options market, that, of course, would be the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city and across the nation in

declines in california and florida, and the 50% slide in vegas, and then today we learned from the case shiller index, the authority on these matters we had our first month-to-month increase. when did it begin? june 30th. you with try to equivocate. you can run but you can't hide. i won't let you. you can't not have a bottom, to use a double negative, if you have an increase in price. and the housing bottom was reached on june 30th, just like i predicted. so i'm not an idiot. that's worth celebrating. i heard a lot of quibbling about my id yos -- idiosy today, or i took it personal. but the answer is that people who keep bringing up this foreclosure straw man don't recognize it's already in the numbers no heaven's sake. how exasperating. did they call a bottom? no. anyway, now people are saying the bottom will fall out again when the first-time homebuyer tax credit goes away. my, that's not why people buy homes, but the reason you buy a house is because you need one and it's cheaper, thanks to bernanke, than renting. it's affordable. do we have more reason to celebrate? sure. just this morning

it's rare that a set of statistics make news, but the release of this month's case shiller price index was the report of the new lead story in both "the new york times" and the "wall street journal." why? well, the industry showed the decline in the american housing market ended and the recession would soon end. this is big news. why? the decline of the housing market has been the single largest cause of the crisis, and its end could well be the beginning of a recovery. remember, when you're trying to understand your way out of the recession, the single most important question is still will the average american start shopping again? i know you've heard about china, brazil, the european union, trade, but as a share of the world economy, the american consumer is currently equal to the total economy of china plus india, doubled. so when governments around the world are spend ag lot of money, they will not be able to do that indefinitely. at some point, the american consumer has to get back into the market. so is he or she doing that? well, we don't really know yet. the housing data is goo

highs as we got the combination of the consumer sentiment number, and as well as of course the case-shiller home building numbers. let's take a look at some of the big movers. home building stocks had a grea morning overall. and by and large, they are holding on to their gains, even though the market came off its highs as we got those consumer confidence numbers from the conference board at 10:00 eastern time. home building stocks have held up very well here. i want to also note that the retailers -- the stocks that are doing well again are the cyclical stocks. your financials, your industrials, and your retail stocks. chicos had very good news. one of the very few companies that had an increase in sales, earnings came out. macy's generally up 2, 3, 4%. finally, big financial outliers. yesterday, these stocks were 25% of volume at the new york stock exchanges and once again, we're on track. citigroup, for example, trading over 600 million shares. citi down fractionally. tradertalk.cnbc.com. rebecca, we are still maintaining the gains in the nasdaq, as well. >> yeah, bob, still maintaining

the case shiller index, consumer confidence.i think generally people are optimists instead of pessimists. these housing numbers year to year are getting a little bit better. i think people want to look for optimism in the market. as long as we don't have any devastating bad news. >> what do you say, bernie? ship fenders or hong kong exports? >> i'd like to get a look how they did selling ballers. putting aside questions about due alt and the nature of reality, i suspects in the fourth quarter they didn't sell too many ship fenders. all kinds of maintenance things they probably put aside and now we're seeing recovery as people feeling more confident. i'm worried about aggregate demand and the yang has me a little bit worried. we've seen some weakness in china and i think we're not going to see a lot of stepping up by the consumer anytime soon. i'd be surprised we see an improvement in that area anytime soon. >> thanks very much, bernie, doug. let us know what you think, the yin or yang. of course, any thoughts on the ship fenders

building on what guy just said, i'm in the same camp, but i think it's important to know with this shiller data, most of the gains were at the low end, the high end is still struggling, and i think will continue to struggle, maybe because the jumbo loan market is not functioning. >> plus year over year, it was ) not up. >> that's also important. >> that's been the story of ) housing the whole time. we're grasping for anything, we got a little something today, people felt better about that, consumer confidence numbers, you already get a check on the  confidence number every single ) day.! it's been just kind of hanging in there.b! the s&p has been hanging in there, people are still chasing performance, yaw, oil was down, but the market finished positive, so let's remember that. we weren't down 100, we did come off our highs, but i think you have to be impressed. the market cannot up every single day in every single sector. you're seeing a bit of profit-taking. >> but i'll take the other side of that, listen, obama was talking to the markets today, 9:00 a.m. i thought he wasn't going to

let's look at the case shiller report which looks at 20 metropolitan areas. there are lots of ways to skin this cat. there are many ways to look at these numbers. according to this report, we see amy nut increase in the price of homes. home prices are stabilizing somewhat after dropping more than 20% since their peak back in 2007. home sales are increasing, too. as mortgage rates remain low, prices remain low. these are existing homes. that means used homes, somebody else's homes. there are a lot of distressed mortgages and foreclosures here. we've seen 3.6% increase in june compared to may. the month before. it's still down compared to the year earlier but up over the course of one month. from may to june in new homes, this is an interesting one. it makes up a small proportion of the housing market. an 11% increase in sales of new homes, that's good because that adds construction jobs to the economy. but these are some signs of life in the economy. does it mean that president obama deserves credit for it? he certainly made some speeches that suggest that his

the home prices according to case shiller, pending home sales run, so that gives us some reason to celebrate. it also gives the administration an opportunity to really fine tune and identify the segments that are still having problems. we can kind of carve those out based on geographic locations, property type, and also price. we know the jumbo homes are still suffering. so clearly those areas that are still suffering would be the place where the opportunities are. so investors would be wise to look to the geographic areas that are still having problems, the types of properties that are still having problem, and the price ranges where there are still issues. >> so why i be afraid of jumping in to a place? i smell opportunity. why wouldn't i be afraid? it sounds like you're talking about florida, second home market, high end. >> exactly. there's a guy who i think is a lot smarter than all of us, warren butch at the time is the one who said that smart people are bullish when everyone else is afraid. in other words, the time to be greedy is when everyone else is fearful. so if you want to follo

let's look at the case-shiller report which looks at 20 metropolitan areas.t's remind you there are lots of ways)d)d)d)d)d)d)d)d)d)d)d)d? he certainly made some speeches that suggest his administration and his policies deserve some of the credit for it. according to a cnn opinion research poll, more than half of you think the president's plans made the economy better or at least will make things better in the future. 40% say his policies won't improve the economy. ken rogott is from harvard university, stephen moore an editorial writer with "wall street journal" and douglas is a former economic advisor to john mccain. who better to talk about this than these three gentlemen? stephen, you are generally not that bearish about things, but you don't think we should have a discussion about who should take credit you don't think it's all that good. >> we certainly lowered our standards when we say a loss of 250,000 jacobs is good news. unemployment is as high as it's been in practically 50 years. there is modest expansion, and i'm still worried about this and i don

building on what guy just said, i'm in the same camp, but i think it's important to know with this shiller data, most of the gains were at the low end, these were foreclosures. the high end is still struggling, and i think will continue to struggle, maybe because the jumbo loan market is not functioning. >> plus year over year, it was not up. >> that's also important. >> there's another second derivative aspect to the market. >> that's been the story of housing the whole time. we're grasping for anything, we got a little something today, people felt better about that, consumer confidence numbers, you already get a check on the confidence number every single day when you look at the volatility index. it's been just kind of hanging in there. the s&p has been hanging in there, people are still chasing performance. yeah, oil was down $3 today but the market finished positive. so let's remember that. we weren't down 100, we did come off our highs, but i think you have to be impressed. the market cannot go up every single day in every single sector. you're seeing a bit of profit-taking. good tra

when we look at shiller as an examining, year on year prices falling but month on month therapeutthey were up for first time in 36 months. which of the headlines tells us where we are now the increase or double digit drop? >> i think the slight increase is a positive sign. we probably watch house prices as being the most leading indicator of the housing market. if you buy a house still falling in value, it's a very expensive investment. until housing prices bottom out, we would be reluctant to see we're going to see meaningful recovery in housing. now that they may be recovering a bit over the last month, we would see as an early indicator getting ready to see the bottom and recovery in housing. >>> i know everyone must ask the question. are we looking way out in 2010 are much sooner. >> there's a question of when and scale. it seems to us like we should begin to see some recovery probably in the second half of this year and going into 2010. we don't think we'll see the kind of recovery that creates meaningful and positive growth until beyond 2010. >> michael, we had representative of

case shiller home price index up two months in a row now. these are clearly numbers that indicate some kind of bottom is being put in. why isn't the market a little more impressed? maybe because we've already had a 4% rally in a month that is traditionally seasonally considered weak. august and september the two weakest months of the year back to back. traders have been trying to play the short end of this thing and they've been losing. so a lot of people have simply been capitulating to go along with the overall trade. we've got more economic numbers in a couple days. there's the bell. you know who's next, maria bartiromo. >>> and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to "the closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. stocks seesawing throughout the day today on wall street. investors really going back and forth despite strong readings on new home sales and durable goods. putting support under the market earlier on but it's been back and forth midday. gen

we saw case shiller, new home sales, they speak to the two different things that you watch in a housing market. price and supply. what are they each telling you? >> reporter: they're telling us that it looks positive right now. the numbers themselves are very bullish. unfortunately, it seems that all the experts i'm talking to are very bearish and the reason is can this sustain into the fall. they're concerned about that first time home buyer tax credit expiring on november 30th. this market has been very juiced by that tax credit. 1/3 of all existing home sales in july were first time home buyers. we don't have numbers on new krugs, but i would bet it's even higher because they really draw in the first time home buyers. so if that tax credit isn't extended, you're taking away $8,000 of purchasing power. also about la about mortgage rates? we've seen the government come in and really keep mortgage rates low, but where are they going this fall? they've been inching up ever so slightly and we hear that perhaps they'll be drawing back on buying some of these securities. what is that going

. >> if we look at the case-shiller data, the average was the rate of inflation for 100 years, so thatwas pretty good data in my book. >> right. and we don't want to turn housing. we saw what happened when we turned housing into a constant trait, housing is a place for people to live. obviously, an excellent investment, and for some people, more than an investment property. but overall, you don't want to see 10, 20, 30% depreciation over a year, because that's just going to put us right back where we were. >> whether we like it or not, we're in a new world of volatile house prices, and we're going to see these volatile ups and downs going forward. >> people may be renting in the future. >> good discussion. we wrap it up there. thank you very much to all of you. up next, what have we got on the plate, trish? >> retail earnings, from lowe's and sax disappointing, and now sears following suit. the question is, mandy, what does it mean for a retail recovery, and who is really buying out there? is it the high-end consumer, the low-end consumer? somewhere in between? >> somewhere in between.

the s&p case-shiller index of home prices in 20 major cities increased 1.4% in june.nd that is the first time the index has risen for two months in a row since 2006. >>> well, tonight we continue our series of special reports, "dobbs and jobs now." we have reported here for years about the devastating impact of manufacturing jobs being sent overseas, clothing manufacturing jobs in the united states are down 60% since 2000. brooke baldwin reports on how the recession and cheap foreign labor are ripping the industry apart. >> reporter: in new york's world of high-end fashion, big brand designers mean billions of dollars in business. but before the catwalks and cash comes the clothes. cut and sewn by hand by thousands in manhattan's garment district. timmy rosales has made a career here for the last 15 years. his pay, almost $12.50 an hour. but with slumping sales and a down economy, the city's apparel industry has hit a snag. in the last year and a half, rosales' factory has slashed its staff by 50%. this a busy time? >> it should be, but we are not. >> reporter: i see

we had robert shiller on the show last friday and we talked about a second stimulus. you look at what mohammed said today and you have to wonder are we eventually going to have on go down the road again where a second stimulus is actually needed to get the consumer spending to where it needs to be. >> the thing i find interesting there's no disputing his prowess here, but while good numbers are coming out, everybody's now looking for the bad numbers. we had terrible numbers in the first quarter. we're getting good numbers on industrial production today, on the auto numbers. we've seen it and a recovery. and yet people are looking forward for the fourth quarter to be down. >> that's a good point. we see it happening all the time coming out of recessions. everybody is sort of looking for the bad news when you come out of it and i think that's what they'll read into it here. i wouldn't be surprised if we see a little bit of a pullback. some of the market activity we saw today would be a little bit reactionary because not all the market participants are in there. but i do

>> as value stabilizes, we see the case-shiller home price index up two months in a row.e banks will be less fearful for losses and they might lend more. i tell people all the time watch the h.h release on the federal government website. see, are banks lending more or not? if not, the money's not moving out of the door and it will be difficult to get things off the ground. asset values is one of the keys. >> back to the sugar high thing. are you confident they'll start pulling away the punch bowl in a timely fashion or do you think they'll leave it there and overstimulate? 2005 rate were 3% when the economy was absolutely booming. are they going to do that again? >> i think it's like walking a dog with a very long leash. it's difficult to navigate. i'm confident in the leash-holder, bernanke, it's very difficult to navigate. >> jim? >> i would agree with that. and i would add in that everything you've heard from the feefsh federal reserve has been about extended period, longer period of time. let me be blunt about it, don't think they have an exit strategy right now. i th

robert shiller said the other day he thinks real estate is actually rising. that plays to aig's favor. >> okay, ron? >> and how much of these swaps have worked their way off the books? >> that's a brilliant question, ron. and i don't know. but it seems that the pain has abated, and it's reflecting itself in the shares, not only citi, but aig, and we're long both today. and we're quite happy with the results. >> isn't your point, though, daman, if we were going to see it crateterring in the swaps market, it would have happened already? >> i haven't made that point, but i think you make a good point by saying that. you're right. i think there's a good chance the worst may be behind us. we didn't implode. we didn't. >> all right. daman good to see you. good luck. >> you too. >> see you later. ron, we'll be checking back with you in a moment here. >> we've got to follow this one. a great page-turner, isn't if? >> great story. >> coming up, high stakes investors when the japanese heads to the polls. the world's second biggest economy has been stagnant for 20 years

in the meantime, the case shiller report says home prices rose 3% in the second quarter compared to therst quarter, that's the first quarterly increase in three years. it's a sign of stabilization, but we do have a long way to go because home prices are at 2003 levels. now in corporate news, something to tell you about, burger king, their quarterly profits jumped 16%, that did beat estimates, sales fell and the fast food chain opened more than 100 stores in the three-month period, but burger king came out on top because it managed the costs well. bk shares on the up side by 2% in the pre-market and right now up 5.5%. taking a look at the early going, we are in the green. the dow on the up side by 30 points, up 1/3 of a percent, s&p 500 also up right now. one thing i've got to mention, we're not expecting much market reaction as to the reappointment of ben bernanke. if he didn't reappoint him, that could've sparked a reaction. we're off to a positive start. we'll take it. >> as always, we'll check back later on. thanks. >> thanks. >>> a special prosecutor will now look into cia prisoner

case-shiller's national home price index increased almost 3% over the first quarter of 2009. had the biggest rebound in the second quarter. up more than 4% from april to june. only two cities in the 20-city index showed declines, las vegas and detroit. >>> coming up this hour -- we will look at ben bernanke's second term as fed chairman. what does he do forren encore? i will be talking with "fortune's" magazine colin barr and politico.com's ammeamon jav. >>> the auto industry is bracing for a hangover. cnnmoney.com's poppy harlow has our "breakdown" from new york. hi, poppy. how bad could it actually be? >> i think hangover is a great way to put it. we're looking at a projected steep drop-off in u.s. auto sales. right away a dealer in portland, oregon, telling us, and i'll quote him, i think you'll be able to shoot a scan none through here, talking about his dealership and not hurt anybody. edmund's.com, the experts there saying they think sales will fall 40% immediately now that cash for clunkers will wrap up, down to where they were in may. take a look at this chart and you

i was in a green room a couple days ago with bob shiller talking about indekt and how no mo mem tum driven it is. while he wasn't ready to call a bottom, so momentum driven that perhaps there's housing front and if we can get a little bit of pressure coming up, another biggie, unemployment, i think we're beginning to build something of a base. we think that by the fourth quarter we exit the recession in the united states. inventory cycles.. i think you're beginning to see companies that could drive revenue, as you mentioned earlier, going into 2010. that's going to be the differentiation. >> so, michael, do you share steven's thoughts on the housing market? >> i think it probably is pretty close to a bottom. i do actually think that. most of the housing market, not certainly the high end. the high end is still getting killed on a monthly basis. if you look at what is happening, it appears that it's performing and i think it is going to be the driver for the banks. if the banks get haelg thiealth gives us a good foundation. >> then what is the new normal and how quickly can you grow, which

this 233 acre neighborhood, they have a place called shiller park where they have beautiful gardens andugh september 27th at the ohio expo center sponsored by schmidt's restaurant, one of the great places to get german cuisine in german village in ohio. this is a beautiful neighborhood, brick streets, queen anne houses. so much fun to walk around. >> i know some parisians who will tell you no place like paris. you found a place some might say is similar to paris. >> one of my favorite cities, montreal. about six-hour drive north into canada. montreal has an area that is called old montreal, where some of the houses go back to the 1600s. you are going to be able to get french food, listen to people speak french, french signs. it is a great place to hang out in the open air cafes, go buy art. you'll feel like you are in paris. >> i'm embarrassed i haven't been there, but i've heard nothing but great things about montreal. let's talk about havana, cuba, close by but difficult to get there. but miami, obviously, has a thriving cuban community and there's an area there that you recommend. >>

and the reason is because home prices have fallen, you know, nationally according to case-shiller fromrough 33%. you look at phoenix, the home prices are down 52% or 54%. you look at other places. here in the new york area, 21% peak to trough. it's because those home prices are falling, people now owe more on the house than it's worth in many cases. and that's going to be -- that's going to be something to contend with over the next year or so. it's going to be something that will make it difficult for you to move if you get a new job somewhere else, if you are lucky enough to do that, there won't be enough money to tap into your home to pay for college and some of the things we've been using the home -- the equity in our home for. so, just a very sobering assessment from deutsche bank about what this housing situation's going to look like for many americans for the next year or so. >> all right, christine romans, thank you very much. >> sure. >> we really appreciate it. >>> a new jersey woman takes the cake when it comes to a creative way to save some money on her home foreclosures. c

and case-is shiller, negative in item of houses but much less negative than now.h grounds and we brought a camera. here's some commentary from the gathering. >> i think we still have a lot of sort feedback between the real economy and dertivetives.s. i think that the fixed income dertivetives market is still huge. outstanding, we've seen some compression in cds but still some significant issues on all kind of exotics. >> i think we're well into the process of dealing with our bad assets. we go back to shortly after we were here last summer in september, october, november, it wasn't about bad assets only. it was the fact that all assets were trading at pawn shop prices. >> it's better than it was last year because last year was a deep hole. and we were bleak. this year we're on the cusp of a decision. is it a cyclical recovery, the have the "v", secular, long term? i think not. is it a "w"? high. >> why? >> there are a lot of structural problem that take a long time to work out, commercial real estate, unemployment is going to be high for years, and we have huge po