in robert shiller. and larry robibins breaking the silence. >> is he like harpo? >> a implied upside on the open, and much more on "squawk on the street" in a moment. ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ [ male announcer ] just when you thought you had experienced performance, a new ride comes along and changes everything. ♪ the 2013 lexus gs, with a dynamically tuned suspension and adjustable drive modes. because the ultimate expression of power is control. this is the pursuit of perfection. (announcer) at scottrade, ouron cexactly how they want.t with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. awarded five-stars from smartmoney magazine. >>> i want to get back to the key housing data out. kay schiller records showing a record home month to mon

you had not only case shiller numbers big on prices. new home sales big on prices and sales, existing homes big on pricing and sales. that's basically been the great story so i ask you is it real? will it last? can i rely on it? >> yes, absolutely. it's a fire we're feeling in new york and i know frederik can attest to it, too, as inventory continues to decline, prices will continue to go up. as john sees his buddy steve sold his home for "x" price he'll want "x" plus and that's what we're seeing and it's everywhere and it's going to continue to go. >> are you getting people bidding against one another? a guy offers at "x" and somebody comes in with "y" which is 20% higher than "x," is that happening? >> 100%, on everything else in manhattan. bidding wars everywhere and you have to be prepared as to come in with your best and final. madison park north, we had the price set and four people come in and attack and that's it. it's an all-out war. >> let me ask you this, outside of manhattan, what's going on and i'm trying to generalize, may

the s&p case-shiller index showing an increase of 11% from march compared to a year earlier. ten months of year-to-year gains. what's this say about the housing market and the broader impact on the economy? >> the housing market has clearly come back, and we are well on the way to recovering from the financial crisis. we're not there yet, though. home prices nationally are today about where they were in 2004, which was on the ramp up. we came down and we started to recover. it also is something of a plus for the u.s. economy. when you build houses, you add to gdp. however, there's more activity in existing homes and existing home sales than new home sales. so, there was still a little more to come for the overall economy. for homeowners, you should feel better than you did a year ago. >> we just need a confirmation that the housing recovery is, in fact, for real. it's getting some momentum. people are feeling better about things, more inclined to go out and spend, so it's overall considered a positive, but you're right. i mean, even if you look at the gains, factoring in even

you could argue for case-shiller we do have housing inflation. or alternatively, alternatively, bulls need to see stocks go unaffected by rise in interest rates, stocks have gone down enough they discounted. that's what we saw today. bulls decided to overlook rise in interest rates and charge higher and rates did go higher. overseas data resulted in people feeling a little bit better about buying american stocks. my take, don't get used to today. several times we were at the cusp of breaking down and breaking down big because rates were going up threatened to send market lower. hostage to meager increases in mortgage rates despite what the home builders told us including lennar. bulls will buy stocks if they see rates are tame. what we ultimately want good data that doesn't drive interest rates sharply higher because they already are as high as they are going to go for now. we aren't there yet. consider this is the first day we went higher on good news. don't get complacent. we're still not where we need to be for the market to go much higher wit

that's what we're all waiting to see but it appears phil shiller is on the stage so it remains to be seen really what happens from here on out. we'll bring you the headlines as soon as we hear them, guys and see what the impact is on wall street to those who only stock and those who perhaps wanted to only stock, what it all means going forward. >> it's got to be serious, scott, if he's brinking his donkey gosling into the picture. i can't believe he would call it his donkey on stage like that. thank you very much. >> we figured since it was cable it was okay for me to revisit that. >> of course it is, say that all the time. nothing wrong with a jackass. they are fine. very good pack animals. >> all right. >> thinking of buying apple stock on the back end of this conference, you might want to think again, at least as far as history goes. i asked our crack data team here at cnbc to say what's the average return for the month of june for apple? yeah, there it is. june's is when the worldwide developers conference takes place and three of the last five junes the stock is down. the averag

the case shiller index. this shows home prices.xisting home prices in 20 agile politician areas rising 12.1% in april from just one year ago. what about the names behind all of this? the stock is up nearly a full percent. let's take a look at how the other homebuilder stocks are reporting. what do you see with these sales? wanted to get you what we promised you. up about 3%. kb homes moving up about one full percentage point. we have full team coverage of today's headlines. peter barnes at the white house, nicole petallides at the new york stock exchange and jo ling kent right here in new york. apparently, bridgewater does not do well in all weather. first, nicole petallides. nicole: traders on wall street will say that this rally is a china relief rally and a market that was vastly oversold. liz: peter barnes, they had a big rally at the end of their session. peter: the president tries to jumpstart the climate change agenda. a cap on carbon emissions and existing power plants. it is a war on coal. liz: coming back in a big way. jo

again, if we look at case shiller, it's backward looking. even if we look at core logic numbers, they are all backward looking, so a lot of this happened, we're looking at april numbers, and the markets have changed since then. so we're seeing -- >> go ahead. >> i was just going to say indeed the markets have changed since then and to that point, dan greenhouse, you and i were chitchatting about this verying to intwo, three weeks ago, and you said you felt that the housing recovery was strong enough to offset the rise we had been seeing in rates, but now, of course, we've seen quite a shakeup in rates. do you still make that statement? >> listen, it's been a pretty sharp rise in rates by about a full percentage point over the last couple of weeks, and that's certainly go to have some impact on demand, but i think the larger story or the larger thought that somehow a 30-year mortgage at 4.25 or 4.5 is going to sink the housing market is something i don't disagree with -- something i don't agree with. what it's probably-to-going to do is push

that's one of the contributing factors to why we see these housing prices and why we see the case shiller index up today and let's face it these guys are the most astute buyers of houses right now are the carlow group and others who have formed funds to buy these big properties form them into rental properties and now what are they doing with them they're peeling them off the rats are leaving the show well also we could have an angry central bank ok so all those basically comes back to them. i would say so i mean he hasn't met his unemployment stanley fischer or mario draghi any one of these guys could be considered as angry because guess what they're not really living up to the expectations that they have yeah i totally agree with that so what we did was we made our version of angry. and. it seems that the program is not favorable towards gold that sound running into a pile of gold the boy on market is down five percent from last week after that conference he had i guess he's running scared i guess that well thanks for joining us if you want to follow us on facebook at facebook dot com s

first up, a slew of housing data, both case-shiller out next week.en-year yield soaring to a two-year high. >> this will be the big one next week. everybody's worried about rates going higher, going to kill the housing market, which is one of the only legs this bull market has had to stand on. so the housing stocks themselves have actually got pretty killed over the last week or two. so i'm not sure i'd go out shorting those. i think if you get any good news, polisitive news, or bette than or worse -- or not as bad as expected, you might have trade in some of the secondary trades here. like home depot. >> don't laugh at him. we've all been there. >> i thought you were taking the reverse of your own thing. >> no, no. >> you sounded great. anyway, next up, new housing to old tech, yahoo! has its annual shareholder meeting next tuesday. this is a stock up more than 27% since the start of the year. josh? >> i don't think this is a big trading catalyst in the short-term. there's actually a double top in the chart. but the lovefest continues. i think maris

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home prices jumped 10.9% in march from last year according to s&p case shiller.far we have come from that big drop in forecasts fell during the first 23 months of the year compared with last year. >>> mortgage rates are climbing. the 30-year fixed rate hit the highest level in a year. it's now averaging 3.81%. also, new signs of housing may be turning into a seller's market. a survey from century 21 finds a third of americans looking to buy a house have been on the hunt for more than a year. many are willing to compromise to close the deal. meaning things like price or location or items on buyers' wish lists are becoming less important. that's good for you sellers. buying a home isn't the only way to invest real estate. if you're smart about the housing market, you too can ride the recovery. >> home prices are rising, demand is back. but it's not just home buyers and sellers cashing in. when you buy a house or build a house, you're fueling an entire industry and creating opportunities for investing. and not just in the real estate itself. >> consumers feeling bet

this case-shiller data shows housing hot or hotter, you are in? about sell, simple as that. wow. >> back in '06 we talked about a housing bubble. we have a crash, it was enabled by the fed with easy money policy, now this is easy month policy times 100. they are flipping houses, this is the type of the activity and greed that usually ends poorly. interest rates get normalized, it shaping, you will see a chairman -- sharp slowdown. neil: i respect the heck out of gary, but i do not see that willy-nilly over frothy housing market storm, what you to see in. >> i have to agree with you, usually i never like to disagree with gary, beeause you will be wrong, but this time, i think he is a little early, you see recovery in housing like every other recovery in our economy, slow and poor, not strong. but, you do see a recovery. i think this a couple years, three to five, i think that interest rates will be a huge immediment. but right now we're still in recovery. >> quickly, gary, do housing stocks -- do they precede a fall off or a connectioned? >> i think it is purely interest driv

. >>> the case shiller price index showed a case of supply and demand. the start of a san francisco development could be sparked by protest tomorrow. >> if we don't work. >> nobody works. >>> dozen of people blocked work vehicles and they are promising to return tomorrow for the official ground breaking. the corporation plans to build 200 homes therement and members of abu say the developers are not hiring local workers. job seekers should sign up with a local nonprofit that helps with hiring. >>> president putin said yes. snowden is at the russian airport and no he will not be returned to the u.s. the obama administration said russia should return snowden to the u.s. where he is charged of espionage. >>> and they got through two levels of security dressed in military uniforms. all eight militants were killed along with three afghan guards. the attack comes a week after the u.s. handed all control of security to the afghans. the afghans did not ask for coalition help today. >>> and in south africa some of nelson mandela's family held an urgent meeting at

. >>> the case shiller price index showed a case of supply and demand.rt of a san francisco development could be sparked by protest tomorrow. >> if we don't work. >> nobody works. >>> dozen of people blocked work vehicles and they are promising to return tomorrow for the official ground breaking. the corporation plans to build 200 homes therement and members of abu say the developers are not hiring local workers. job seekers should sign up with a local nonprofit that helps with hiring. >>> president putin said yes. snowden is at the russian airport and no he will not be returned to the u.s. the obama administration said russia should return snowden to the u.s. where he is charged of espionage. >>> and they got through two levels of security dressed in military uniforms. all eight militants were killed along with three afghan guards. the attack comes a week after the u.s. handed all control of security to the afghans. the afghans did not ask for coalition help today. >>> and in south africa some of nelson mandela's family held an urgent meeting at the fam

then we have the s&p case-shiller index, the fhfa house pricing index. may new home sales, june consumer confidence and the richmond fed survey. and that's all hitting the tape just by 10:00 eastern. so, we have got a lot to get to. i'm going to send it over to scott in the meantime. scott? >> andrew, thanks so much. >>> in other market headlines, a number of prospective borrowers shelved deals to raise new capital or refinance debt yesterday. suddenly, an uncertain interest rate environment is hitting demand. they are collectively aimed at raising money were postponed. and a number of companies pulled plans to refinance syndicated bank loons. corporate bonds passed a fourth deal with no deals brought to market. >>> the emerging major market nations are teaming up to limit the fallout of u.s. fed withdraw withdrawal. it's a little early for that. >> it's a little nearly the morning. we're all there. >> it's not working too well. >> don't worry about it. >> specifically, the brics say they will work together to limit the effects a strong dollar could have

tuesday, kay shiller. remember it used to go down all the time, that's weird.he housing market got to hot to keep the mortgage rates as low as they have been. you see vegas up 28% year over year. that's too hot for me. if this goes up, the dreaded tnx will roar and then the stocks will go higher again. this is a degree of difficulty game now. like the olympics. we get new home sales in ten, okay. get this. if they're too hot, traders might say, wow, we have to sell stocks because now the fed is really going to walk away from bond buying. if new home sales are cooling traders will pummel the horrendously performing housing cohort into oblivion. did you see whirlpool today? and lennar said more than -- not more than two weeks ago the business is good. speaking of massive selling, carnival cruise reports tuesday. and while there are apparently have been no instances of mishaps on the high seas lately, i think this one has become a free firing zone short stock, despite the fact that the founding family owns the heat. my advice take the heat, leave the carnival. wan

. >> according to the shiller index san francisco experienced the biggest price jump in the country.ith home praises going up nearly 24 percent from april of last year to this yea year. of walnut creek realtor has seen the booming bay area market firsthand. houses are selling quickly with multiple offers and often well above the asking price. >> my last 2 listings 1, 17 175,000 over list price and another 121,000. >> over asking praise. >> over asking. yes. >> multiple bid. >> multiple. 29 offers for one. >> this is the latest listing. 4000 square foot home in walnut creek that just went on the market for is this amount of money. first open house this weekend. offers will be accepted monday. seller market being driven in large part by look of inventory and many bay area cities. and it's happening despite rising interest rates. >> interest rates are still slept. >> rpm more than in alamo. >> as far as home buyers i don't think these interest rates are going to affect a slow down in the purchase market. rates are still great. not a huge difference in the differential and monthly paymen

then we have the s&p case-shiller index, the fhfa house pricing index.the richmond f

. >> you're not sold on case-shiller? not sold on consumer confidence? some of the most recent data that's come in better than expected? maybe good news is finally good news. >> i think that's good and it will help provide clarity to this argument, not will thef omc taper, but should they. i think in the longer run, that's good, but that doesn't turn the market around in one day. >> can i ask joe a question? just out of curiosity. so the fed, just asking you to surmise, do you think that because of this information they're starting the jaw boning process? the fed thinks there's positive economic data? >> there's right now there's a view, there's a dynamic. the street doesn't believe the growth expectations that the fed has. the fed believes that growth is going to be above trend. their expectations are -- >> steve liesman laid the case out yesterday that the market thinks one thing when the fed is meeting another. fed optimism the market takes as hawkish. maybe the market is taking it wrong. >> it should be hawkish. >> you asked the question, is good new

if we see these numbers that say 10% housing increase, case-shiller, what that really says is that radianot have to pay off on loans they thought they had to pay off because the housing may be going up in value. >> and more importantly, what that would mean is, the inventory, the legacy inventory -- legacy loans that are still performing are going to be less likely to go into default because borrowers have more options as the home prices rise. >> why not keep paying? >> yes. >> your home is going up in value. don't walk away from a home going up in value. great radian strong point. two things people are talking about, one they're not giving you enough credit. first the fha pulling back, a lot of talk about fannie mae and freddie mac and whether the government is going to restrict them or phase them out. in that latter case, isn't that radian's gigantic opportunity? >> under certain scenarios there has been this corker proposal on the news. and that's a great scenario for us. basically, what that means is that the government wants to guarantee a catastrophic level from an entity which will

housing markets saw gains of 11.6 and 12.1% from a year ago on the s&p case-shiller index. we saw record monthly gains seasonally adjusted with all 20 markets in the positive. now, going forward, you will see more sellers listing their homes as prices rise and more buyers are looking to get in fast as rates rise. construction is still running well below demand. housing completions are about at about 690,000 for this year but analysts excess demand that exceeds 1 million so you can see where this is headed, sue. >> absolutely. sure can, diana. thank you very much. >>> well, after nearly 35 years at the helm nicky arison is out at ceo of carnival cruise lines, this after the company eco-ed out a second-quarter profit in part on lower fuel costs. the stock is up 4.33%. simon hobbs joins me with more on that. i don't know whether the 4.33% to the upside is because of earnings or because of mr. arison being out. >> his decision to split roles of ceo and chairman and relink wish one of them comes after carnival's big aging fleet cruise ships was hit by the string of high-profile

buying land, we're growing our revenues, growing our deliveries and our home prices just like case shiller's why our margins have been going up. cheryl: we've heard there's actually pressure in the construction industry to find construction workers because they all shifted trades five years ago. are you finding trouble getting those homes built, getting staffed to build? >> it is accurate. it is more challenging right now because housing sales and starts have been going up so much. it is more challenging. cheryl: let's talk about financing. you mentioned land deals. some of the smaller builders have reported they're having trouble getting financing to acquire new land. that's been crucial, obviously, for your business as well on a larger scale. does that affect you at all? >> it actually gives advantages to companies like ourselves that have access to long-term capital that private builders that depend on bank capital cannot get right now. so there's definitely more concentration, more land acquisition, more deliveries coming from the larger home builder t -- builders right now. cheryl: in

growth figures have resumed, as well as they have, the case-shiller index doing well. china appearing to grow reasonably rapidly. i think all of that points in the right direction. against that, we have certain risk factors as well. you've alluded to one. but there's others too. you have to balance one against the other, but i would say cautious optimism. >> anshu, good to have you on the program. anshu jain, co-ceo of deutsche bank. tomorrow we'll get more on the state of the global banking industry when i talk exclusively with ubs ceo, sergio emotti. >> looks like the tuesday streak may be over, the tuesday streak of up dow weeks. we're down 103 points right now, off the lows, but that would be quite a comeback if we were to pull that off in the next 30 minutes here, wouldn't it? >> yeah, it really would be. the market having a rough day today. meredith whitney says she's never been more ul bullish on equities. she's coming up in the program. >> also, a new deal between the nf and verizon is going to allow verizon wireless customers to watch even more football games

days ago that almost, and i mean, it is -- it's a third lower, and it is -- >> li i mean, we had shiller on who said don't worry about, but the cost of owning is up 26% if you are taking on a mortgage loan, come on. >> and lennar came off, and they said it is because they didn't have enough land, and stuart did speak eloquently about the housing shortage and how few homes we have built, but i look at the number, and i'm just saying that i have to wait for it to come down, because i am not buying a house this week, because it is relative. yes, we all remember 7%, and my first mortgage was 9%, but there is a group of people who say, well sh well, that went high and i will wait for it to come down. >> yeah, although. >> but maybe it doesn't. >> maybe it doesn't. >> but it is daunting, because those stocks are down for a reason. >> and david asked the question yesterday whether this leads to a new wave of affordable products with a few more bells and whistles to get you in at least in the beginning. >> well, the affordability products are out there, but we are not finding that they are wides

new-home sales coupled with the fact that we got in our case shiller's numbers.n area like new york did not grow as much. it actually had the lowest growth. the largest year-over-year growth of 23.9%. >> thank you very much. we have a news alert for you. putin saying russia's security agency never worked with snowden and they are not working with him today. the president in russiaaalso went on to say that snowden was still in the area of the moscow airport and was free to leave and should do so as soon as possible. former american nsa contractor edwards noted has been charged with disclosing intelligence secrets. lori: glass half full. that is how we choose to look at the consumer confidence report. >> a new captain at the helm of carnival. make that two captains. lori: why the eiffel tower has been shut down. >> take a look at how the dollar is faring today. ♪ everybody has different investment objectives, ideas, goals, appetite for risk. you can't say 'one size fits all'. it doesn't. that's crazy. we're all totally different. ishares core. etf building blocks f

i would expect to see phil shiller as usually. tim cook always spends time up there as well.there's anybody else who takes more of a prominent role. perhaps kevin lynch. but he's so recent it might be too soon for him to take on much of a visible role. guys? >> john fortt. a long day, buddy. thank you very much. we'll see you soon. i'm a big apple user. i have noticed i've got a lot of problems with apple products i've never had. a year ago it started with icloud, delays, i couldn't sync up the ipad. i don't know if they're losing a step. >> an important pillar for apple. originally and over time it helped people make the switch. they got frustrated with pcs, with the service, they went to anal and it worked like a dream. fit not working like a dream, it's a problem. >> it's a relative statement. my pcs here are causing a huge amount of problem. for more than the apple products. >> true. >> but they cnbc laptops. >> the hobson's choice and the simon hobbs choice. >> look at that. >> like that? call that a segue. 29-year-old government contractor claiming responsibility for th

case-shiller, spending will continue -- >> home deand loews?me depot is another favorite, as well. >> is there a loser we should walk away from. >> mentioned in the previous segment about the low income -- we think that is still a space that is challenged this year and so in my coverage that's the dollar stores, we think that will be an area of weakness through the rest of the year. >> peter, thank you. >> thank you very much. >> good morning. >>> when we come back we will continue this theme of the second half outlook and be asking whether the urge to merge will return. expectations for m&a right after this. >>> then in the next hour we will add a new member to the "squawk box" masters class. he is a major investor in the neverland ranch. >> really? >> yeah. >> you're hearing a little m.j. in the background. >> all will be revealed. ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ [ male announcer ] just when you thought you had experienced performance, a new ride comes along and changes everything. ♪ the 2013 lexus gs, with a dynamically tuned suspension and adjustable d