professor shiller: i suspect so.hat excludes san francisco, maybe, or some other places that have been growing fast, but, yeah, i think it is kind of -- if anything, it is kind of a weakening market. our latest data on a seasonally adjusted basis are weaker than they were last month. it has been gradually weakening. it is still going up, and i think it might go up for years. it's not a major consideration for a homebuyer. .f you want a home, buy it it will probably outpace inflation for a while. what it does in the long run is anybody's guess. scarlet: when consideration is where rates are. one consideration is where rates are. what does that mean for the portability of homes, as we close out the spring selling season, particularly in markets like san francisco? mortgage shiller: rates are a significant factor in home prices, and when they go up, it's an issue. go down, a lot of people take that as a signal to buy. that's what happened in 2012. that reversed the whole turn of the market. maybe long rates won't -- the

alix: you sound like robert shiller. i am not sure that the current situation is a classic bubble. the current environment may be driven more by fear. is there something to that? we might see a bubble, but there is something different going on. michael: it is a fear of missing out. i think it is people feeling the need -- this market has been mark of the resilient. we had almost an economic disaster. you had the fed step in and do great things to prevent that. recovered, they did not take their traditional role of removing the liquidity and tightening policy. we have had six years of zero interest rates. it has been nine years since we have had an interest rate hike. we are still at zero interest rate. we have a long way to go. stocks areer says, really expensive, but that does not tell you anything about what stocks are about to do. it could be several years before a correction or crash. you are in the bubble camp. what is the timing? when do we see the correction? michael: i do not have a crystal ball. but you have to position yourself so you can digest these environments. i alwa

a look at the housing sector as the case shiller home price index comes out. the index tracks home values in 20 metropolita regions. the institute for supply management chi survey gets a look at business conditions in the chicago area but is also looked at as a barometer for the u.s. economy. and the attitude of the consumer is in the spotlight when the conference board's consumer confiden survey is released. and that's what to watch for tuesday. >>> in washington another deadline is fast approaching. the export import bank charter expires gh the 81-year-old agency helps big companies like boeing sell their products abroad but it's also a financial lifeline for a number of small businesses. te >> reporte susan axelrod's business may be small in size but her reach is global. >> all over the middle east which is qatar, the united arab emirates we have customers in japan, mexico canada. >> reporte this thanks in large part to the export import bank of the united states which makes and guarantees loans and provides insurance to small and big businesses expo the ba

it's no different than what persists or -- professor shiller is doing.look at the trend of valuations, it's up. it doesn't matter if it's two times or if it should be. you would not fight that trend. tom keene: this goes back to the heart of the matter, the guys in the trenches and the academics look at the bigger picture. brendan greeley: that's what i'm learning to do on the show. i started writing about academics and talking to the. i discovered they don't matter. we have dr. alvin roth right here with us. every time we talk about robert shiller when you get that nobel prize what happens? how does your opinion become more valuable? how do people treat you differently? alvin roth: journalists seem to think that you know everything. of course, we only know what we know. part of being elevated to being a nobel laureate means being more careful about what you say. brendan greeley: does that help at home as well? is that the nobel laureate asking for this? tom keene: when you look at the phrases of the moment the things we hear from the professors or from

stocks near record highs, goldman sachs asked robert shiller and jeremy siegel whether we have reasonrry about an impending bubble. while yale's schiller believes there is a bubble element in the current climate, or to siegel takes the opposite view, confident that it will continue the run. erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle spoke with him earlier this morning in order to find out more. i agreed that the current valuation of the market measured by the standard price-to-earnings ratio is a little bit higher than the historical average, i think a higher p/e ratio is fully justified in a world of record low interest rates. even when the fed raises them, they are going to still remain low on his -- on historical standard. in my estimation and my colleagues at wharton, a lower discount rate means a higher average valuation or the stock market, so i certainly do not believe that it is overvalued at current levels. erik: professor siegel, that is a key point. where do you think funds are going to peak once the federal reserve is that the apex of the tightening cycle? professor siegel: my bel

take a listen to what robert shiller, jeffrey and carl icahn have said recently. >> seems to me thate could last but then it could crest. it's a risky time to invest. >> most think corporate bondingss are going to save you. >> i'm very concerned about the market and i think the market is over heated especially the high yield market. >> if the their warnings are correct, two of them about the bond market one about the equity market well what do you do? do you do in the event of a market sell off on either side. dominic chu is back at hq with that. >> if you're worried about the possibility of a larger pull back, one of the things you want to do is look at some of the names again you look towards is one of the names out there, a number of things you'll want to watch overall that could potentially be a leader. if you take a look at investments that perform well when the market drops, data analysts firm partners look at criteria back to 2009 and found eight 30-day periods when the s&p fell by 5% or more. they found the stocks and exchange rate funds that had a higher positive of percenta

if you're looking at the shiller pe ratio, taking it from an average of 17, you're allowed to be up around we're at 28. that's the highest since two other peaks of 2000, 1920s, there's plenty of other valuation indicators. if you look at the median stock in the u.s. the average stock, price of sales, price to earnings, price to cash flow, highest it's ever been. >> it is in the 95th purcell. goldman sachs has put out notes of late saying similar things. but i don't know you know that that the consensus certainly is looking at a paltry 2% a year over the next decade. >> it doesn't mean that it has to crash. it doesn't mean that we're going to have a 50%, 80% bear market. things could go sideways for a while. >> when you have an s&p that's 20% technology and these other periods of time that we're comparing c.a.p.e. ratio to, maybe tech was 5, 6, 7%. is it a fair comparison that s&p 500 tech companies earn compared to the steel foundries of the '70s, that really were almost, almost unprofitable? >> this is why valuations is a blunt tool for one. but also, let's not ignore c.a.p.e. ratio. pric

the latest s&p case shiller price report has been released.t futures this morning. we are looking for a positive open after that hit yesterday. it got worse as the day went on. how about the ten-year note yield. yields coming

the indicator that most of the bears point to is the shiller pe. the math on that indicator and look at what it implies for returns over the next 10 years, is implying returns of about 6% that is not great compared to the 10% average over the last 50 years but that is pretty good relative to other asset classes. that is the most bearish indicator out there. brendan: curious how you use your data. you run the has be 500 back but you get rid of the tech bubble to get a more accurate image. we should look at that as an outlier? dan: we are trying to be as conservative as possible. one argument is a lot of indicators out there are comparing today's evaluation versus the last 30 years. the problem with the last 30 years is you have a huge spike in evaluations because of the tech bubble, which most would argue is unsustainable. on the basis, most valuation metrics. tom: we could use the company of the tragedy in france, air products. when you see a truck in your neighborhood and there are bottles on the back, that is air products. one of america's iconic

goldman sachs published a huge note over the weekend where they had robert shiller and jeremy siegelout whether or not we are in stock market bubble territory. erik: peter lynch? tracy: it is peter lynch 's favored measure. not him personally. erik: we have been talking about valuations for months. is there any reason all of a sudden? here we are. multiples have been climbing. over the past few weeks, they seem to have stabilized. tracy: we could argue it is connected to the economic data that will come out. people are wondering if stocks have divorced from fundamentals. you are watching the economic data, consumer spending for instance. they are not starting to wonder that they are thinking more about it. stephanie: even if people fundamentally agree, they don't want to underperform the index. erik: let's hear from bruno. bruno: our smartest investors, it is a most unanimous they all seem to think the u.s. market is overextended. it has not been anything pivotal. we hear more about valuations going up. we are of the opinion that the markets are overextended. there are better opportu

the latest s&p case shiller price report has been released.ou can see the results at the bottom of the screen. let's look at futures this morning. we are looking for a positive open after that hit yesterday. it got worse as the day went on. how about the ten-year note yield. yields coming down as there was a flight to so-called quality. that also picked up during the day. we're talking about a ten-year note yield that was 2.45 at the end of last week. there's the dollar index nature that was surprising yesterday. overseas in europe. let's look at the markets there. we may take our lead from them. for the most part let's call it even on the sessions over there. germany dax and france up a bit. our road map this morning starts with the end of the quarter. after that massive sell off yesterday, we are seeing green arrows. as greece readies to miss its repayment to the imf, it could be another volatile day ahead. it is not all about greece. puerto rico urged of bankruptcy in a tv address last evening. and a merger. an all stock deal with an intere

danger, bob shiller won a nobel prize, he said there hasn't been a time he can remember a study wherething was overvalued. real estate is overvalued, bonds are overvalued, stocks are overvalued. that wasn't the case in 1929. so there is nowhere to go. >> have we scared you, neil? are you terrified? >> no, no, he's a very nice man. neil: so are you guys. >> he's a lovely individual. neil: as are both of you. thank you, in the meantime. angry guys and bitter and there ought to be a movie about them. because the bitter boomers have moved to daytime. just as bitter, nasty, condescending, and yeah, charlie gasparino is the leader of that pack. you are looking at two airplane fuel gauges. can you spot the difference? no? you can't see that? alright, let's take a look. the one on the right just used 1% less fuel than the one on the left. now, to an airline, a 1% difference could save enough fuel to power hundreds of flights around the world. hey, look at that. pyramids. so you see, two things that are exactly the same have never been more different. ge software. get connected. get insights.

all that money went into the boies-shiller whatever the name of the company is. mr.oies's coffers. that's what we know. hank will appeal the case, he expects the government to appeal, too. the government did come out clean on this. neil: you're tying our hands in future such? >> you bail out people, you better have the lie on your side, the way you did it last time, when you bail out and take so much shareholder money at the same time, that's illegal. here's what we know, hank is telling people he's going to appeal. the government, according to greenberg's attorneys, they believe the government will appeal as well, it didn't win. and the guy who came out on top is none other than david boies. $100 million he earned on this case. neil: in ironing this out, if you have argued the way they argued this case, and apparently they ticked off -- ben bernanke was one of the witnesses. >> he was one of the witnesses. neil: they would have gone to the next level to look at a way to enumerate themselves. >> good point. i'm not in the room. this is highly complicated stuff. david

neil: robert shiller, no one follows us better. all right. just getting news right here that behind the scenes you've always got to wonder what's going on in greece. the greek government has sent a couple of proposals today, this is the latest one. they're being examined we're told by the french prime minister among others. the french prime minister has been saying -- this is iran that we're talking about, we want you to stay in the followed. we want you to be in our club. we think you deserve to be in our club. this comes at the same time he's playing the good cop of germany who is playing the bad cop and saying we're not going to budge. you know the deal that's on the table, stick to it. good cop, bad cop, i'm confused. we'll sort it out after this >> this is not something that we believe will have a major shock to the system. but obviously it's very painful for the greek people, and it can have a significant effect on growth rates in europe. . neil: all right. what the president is essentially saying it's all greek to me because it's all g

fast forward to 2000 frequent "squawk box" guest robert shiller had his book published.2007 showing a forecast collapse of the real estate market and he was right on that. on the plus side for the markets here on "squawk box," david tepper sparked the tepper rally when he said the fed easing guarantees a rally. that was the fed put. you know what markets did after that. question becomes, should wall street and main street believe what carl icahn is saying right now? gentlemen, welcome to both of you. >> good morning. >> it's great to see you. what carl was talking about in that clip we just played was the high yield market. that's not necessarily a reflection on the stock market. but he has been concerned about the stock market for a couple of years and you have too, peter. >> no question. carl said this is a year ago as i said it a year ago. it's the timing of it. the markets can remain that way for awhile. valuations can be expensive for awhile. but it gets down to the timing. in 1998 you could have said things are overheated. in 2006 the housing market started to roll