story of potential of china opening of growth into shortselling.ting the pressure on some of those tentative shorts. the front end of the european bond curve always remarkable. -0.41%. periphery not missing out on the party. -- single currency at a seven-month low. joining us now, richard jones from bloomberg's first word. richard, great to have you with us. wrapping up the markets and the first hour of trading. , thisbate at the ecb two-tier deposit rate cut. if joe the markets. the fx markets. testified,nce draghi we had a solid 10 basis points for december. as the details emerged yesterday, pricing -- odds of a 15 or 20 basis cuts has risen considerably. it looks like 10 is done. 15 very likely. 20 is increasingly possible. is the rabbit out of the hat. at the moment, they have done the work on the fx. 1.06.own now they have to think about the potential for a bounce in the month if they do not deliver. his expectation playing with a conscience at the moment? which: it is relative to where you are. they are clearly a lot more atpy at 1.06 then we

guy: they are going to have an investigation into shortselling. when it comes to the doll ar-ruble exchange rate, oil is the critical factor. yes, russia may be coming up from the cold diplomatically. but it is oil that remains a critical factor as to whether or not that economy will have a good 2016. had a pretty ok 2015 when it comes the stock market, but 2016 looks tough. francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance" on bloomberg tv, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com. for the conversation focuses on economics, finance, and geopolitics. ♪ guy: this is bloomberg "surveillance". i'm guy johnson with francine lacqua in london. let's get to the first word news. nejra: the french finance minister says it is possible the paris terror attacks could affect the country's economic growth. budget rules not affect the security priorities. meanwhile, francois hollande putin andvladimir moscow later for talks on tackling the threat posed by from estate. that is after the french leader yesterday pressed angela merkel for a greater anti-terro

that is different than if you manipulate by shortselling. and manipulating by false statements you may be putting out, that is something we continue to police but bring strong enforcement actions against. it's designed to make sure shortselling occurs legitimately in an orderly way. is topic of shortselling something that continuously gets attention at the sec as it doesn't marketplace. erik: do you have any reason to believe that manipulation is taking place? >> there are some cases that involve manipulation by short-sellers. and every other kind of market participant. in on matter of zero and the specific circumstances. if there is manipulation by putting a false information or deliberately manipulating the market, that is now something we pursue on the enforcement side. erik: one of the concerns now is that some of the short sellers are giving clients advance , that or advance word they plan to go public with a negative position on a stock. if that's the case, the wood that constitute insider trading? i would not make a generalized statem

markets surge after considering the shortselling. zinc rallied. hit a low european central bank will expand for the biggest monthly declined. they considered raising interest rates. he march 25 years since the loss. the index is at the center of a $5 trillion equity rack. that is a first word. seet will be fascinating to in london later on. london indicated positive and it is a fascinating call with the other ones having a impact on trade. the trading day comes to an end. talk about the wild ride with the shanghai composite and you see the reverse course and it wraps up the trading day and china. still, down a 10th of a percent. see a little more action today after autopilot. that is the u.s. heading into the thanksgiving holiday. happy thanksgiving to those. crude staying and holding gains. it is still holding strong here and the industrial metals are surging and nickel and copper raised up as they considered a probe. they will be meeting tomorrow to talk about a response to the nickel prices dropping and including measures to buy up supplies. le

the day. 122.80.ar-jan the inquiry is looking into alleged breaches of the rules on margin and shortsellingontracts. we have haidi watching this for us. >> another day, another tidbit of information. all three of these chinese brokerages announcing a little bit more about the details to what is going on. information they are being investigated for alleged breaches of roles when it comes to financing and shortselling contracts. these are two areas the regulators have been keen to crackdown on. had finance contributing to that run up in share prices over the summer. it came up significantly to what can be perceived as dangerous levels. in recent weeks, alongside the recovery for chinese stocks. this is how we were looking at friday's close, pretty ugly. brokerages were the biggest losers. we have seen quite a lot of fluctuation in these brokerage names. of acomes on the back number of weeks of uncertainty. we still have the security's chairman missing. speculation is that he has been taken in as part of questioning. there is a sense that this is starting to build up. several months of this ki

industrial metals have surged after chinese regulators were considering a probe into shortselling on exchanges. nickel gained as much as 3.9%. copper and sink also rally. caroline hyde has the details. good news for the metal investors. caroline: rio tinto bullish in the long-term. it does seem to be on speculation of what's happening in china. it is the industry talking. isunderstand that china basically going to the regulators, the agency, the national development and reform commission, saying, first of all, look into shortselling of metals. us., help some of these metals. they are looking for them to buy nickel and aluminum. nickel potentially raining back production. a bit of a perfect storm brewing. as we know, this is just reported at the moment. anna: the logic is that if there are fewer bearish bets, the price goes higher. caroline: exactly. that's why you are seeing a pop across the board and so many u.k. listed companies getting a surge higher. anna: but not all of them. caroline: bhp billiton we saw a drop in asia. it is down lower in the united kingdom as well. this seems

details, like one of them mentioned that one of the -- and talkedlved about the suspected use of a shortsellingechnique to manipulate the stock price of that company. and weuite a big story are watching the developments in tokyo. somead: what about background on this man? how is he viewed in japan? >> he is quite an interesting character. he was originally an elite trade beer cracked, and he became the first homegrown activist investor. $4 billion atof one stage. he was an early champion of shareholder rights in japan and pressed companies to return more money to shareholders. in 2006, he was arrested for insider trading. he was sentenced to 22 years in prison. that was suspended on appeal and he went silent for a while, and then he came back in the market. in terms of how he is viewed, it is mixed. --ruffled a lot of fathers feathers in terms of the japan market leaders. the share of companies he owns fell on this news. rishaad: thank you for that. the stories making headlines. taiwan's ruling party finalized its ticket for the election. suggest they are facing defeat to the opposition democra

shortselling has been squeezed and all these point to the fact that all of those efforts the government took to stabilize the market started to bear fruit. we have seen a lot of speculative stocks doing well. that thoseorget government measures are not -- still in place. there has not been an ipo since they banned them. major shareholders sell shares. we still have a lot of state funds holding sizable stakes and a host of companies. encouraging signs of recovery in the market. the big question is going to be, what happens when the state thinks it is comfortable enough to step back. jon: that is the question i want to talk to you about. we are in a bull market, but 30% is off the high for the year. when you look at the clear out, is it a healthier market? or is what is underpinning the rebound just as fragile as the run up at the start of the year? >> the analysts and traders were much more gung ho about the bull market back then and much more circumspect. mining market rates we have seen going down. at the same time, there is concern about earnings. it was a particularly poor third-quar

all three of the brokerages are trading and shortselling. regulators are very sensitive about these aspects of the business having driven in part that $5 trillion stockmarket selloff and the run-up before that. trading limits are down. the chairman has been missing and that stock is in the red. on thateeping an eye before the china-hong kong opening. a pretty mixed bag of data. industrial production missing the mark. point 4% gain versus 1.8% expected. -- a mixed reaction for some of those tokyo stocks. the coffee is extending -- the kospi is extending losses. that was a miss as well. it is a big day for the chinese currency. it is expected to graduate to the next level in the imf. adding to the special drawing rights basket. room, dollar, euro, pound, and yen. some analysts argue this could be the trigger for devaluation as policymakers shift focus towards supporting exports. considers therde yuan as usable as a test for inclusion. five months ago, the currency appeared to have solid short of the mark. in a july report, the imf found that y

anxiety is palpable because the government crackdown on shortselling, insider trading .china's hedgeof funds have stopped trading because of how sensitive these conditions are. the effort to find the cause of the crash has stepped up. there has been the arrest of the man known as the "king of ipo's" as well as seven employees at citi securities. jim pan, is this as good as it gets from the boj. -- japan, is this as good as it gets from the boj? they wrap up the policy meeting on thursday, dismal q3 gdp numbers, a second session -- recession for japan in three years. opposition lawmaker says he is scared of the 2% goal being met. he used to be an advisor to george soros and says that when the target is met, the boj will stop buying assets, causing asset prices to crash. proven -- predicting a default for japan over the past two decades. workers in india set to go on strike. involve 17,000 staff at the reserve bank of india. the unions want the government to stop taking power away from the central bank and pensions that better reflect rising living costs and way tracks. it

both being probed for alleged breaches on margins and a shortselling contracts. bhp and the mining giant falling to its lowest level since 2005, saying it hasn't yet been contacted regarding a potential $5 billion compensation claim from brazil -- from brazil. jon: juliette saly in hong kong, some technical problem's. the hang seng down by 0.3% in the shanghai composite erasing losses overnight. coming up on this program, climate talks begin in paris. do you need to build a carbon risk premium into your portfolio? and turkey in focus. the eu gets up a checkbook and russia unveils new sanctions. thanthe heat is on is more 140 world leaders are gathering ahead of negations -- negotiations on a global agreement. the avis to stop global temperatures rising or the two degrees celsius. caroline hyde's lies -- live at the summit for us. what is at stake? caroline: at stake? agreementglobal meeting emerging markets and developed markets agreeing to halt the worst effects of climate change. at stake is water levels rising and 4000 chinese nationals joining every day. and

beijing may also step in with state purchases and shortselling bans.ok into that meeting of metal inc. them -- withn with zeb. seeing a metals raise, nicole, and the london's exchange -- london exchange is rising as well. the chinesestand major producers will be meeting tomorrow to discuss their reaction. this is largely a problem from china's own making. there has been a boom in commodities, and now that there is a slowdown, there is a glut, it there is overcapacity, there is oversupply. they have too much capacity and they need to bring those numbers back and the amount being produced. they will meet tomorrow to perhaps correct a problem that they created, and this have -- has a global impact. this has an impact on the base metals, in particular, and the global producers. overall, it is a net positive for an industry that has really had a challenging year, and analysts are going to say that next year, we may see recovery. angie: one thing that we haven't seen recovery in is oil. prices are falling there again. why? this is actually good news for the

there is also alleged breaches of rules and shortselling contracts. this is how they are faring on the share market. australia, shares falling to august 20 -- august 2005 lows today, saying they have not yet received a formal morning. the electronics retailer having the biggest fall on record on a profit warning. we have sustained a pickup that was hit hard last week. it's generally handing over the baton in terms of the week start in europe. guy: monday morning, week start, thanks for that. i kid. let's get back to the eu agreement reached over the weekend. the european council president setting out the terms of the eu turkey deal. x our agreement sets out a clear plan for the time that reestablishment of here. we will also step up our assistance to syrian refugees, in turkey, to a new refugee facility of 3 billion euros. guy: we are joined now by russell hayden and ryan chilcote is here as well. significantith the -- significance of this deal with turkey. it seems to come into being. this will be a reasonably straightforward meeting. >> it is quite