joining us with his outlook for the season and q4 is bmo capital markets simeon siegel. do you spot winners in this environment? >> good to see you, sara. isn't it fascinating? we have the stocks showing this huge divergence but have revenues and that's what we should care about right now. there's this huge rhetoric that is saying trade down winds. it's all about the nuance. michael kors is down and coach is up. and that's one ex syample of ma. we'll probably see a lot of promotions and big stories, but certain companies that will figure out a way to predict demand and others that do not. >> so what are your top three? >> when i look at them right now i think i'll benefit from the trade down with tjx and i think they're increasingly more important to brands. another one that was not a good performer over this recent two weeks, which was fairly exuberant was bath and body works. they actually saw their first income operating growth in a long time. we'll buy some candles, what's a holiday without some new year's resolutions and planet fitness? i want to find those business