simon kennedy and george are going to stay with me for the next 30 minutes. here's what else we are checking out on our radar. the u.k. ministry of defense has confirmed that jets have taken part in airstrikes against islamic state targets in syria. it came just hours after british lawmakers backed the government plan for such attacks. oil has rebounded from its lowest price in more than six years amid speculation that saudi arabia will propose an eventual output cut when opec members meet in vienna. out say they haven't ruled terrorism as a motive for the shootings in california that left at least 14 people dead. authorities say the attackers opened fire on a banquet at a center for the disabled. police say that two suspects named -- [indiscernible] have now been killed. president obama has once again called for a bipartisan response to the mass shootings. the south african supreme court of appeal has found oscar pistorius guilty of murder for killing his girlfriend, reeva steenkamp. the paralympic gold medalist is currently under house arrest and was previo

simon kennedy joins us now.lso with this is jeremy cook, first world iit's should be saying rather than first word. tell us why the dollar is starting to fade. is it the inability of the fed to come through those four hikes because inflation is not going to be there? saw the fedact we last week finally act and the dollar has dropped off is to absorb that. the question remains next year, is the market right? you're looking at a severe move from the fed, four rate hikes. again say, the markets are betting on two. the markets were right this year. the question for many next year is whether the markets maintain a magnetism or whether the fed will be able to lead markets. two hikes in next year. if that turns out to be the case, is the dollar priced somewhere in the middle? is there more for the dollar to fade if we move back towards market consensus rather than fed consensus? jeremy: may be the first month we'll see a washout in the long dollar positions we saw. a lot of people reload. pre-fed came out to visually.

a really good article by simon kennedy. saying mario draghi will be long gone by the time the ecb actually raises rates? guest: i guess it begs the was the lasthen time the bank of japan raised rates? when will the bank of japan raise rates? the inflation target will be pretty hard to meet. i look at it from my desk and firm isomeone in my trying to come up with a forecast of the date. i do not know if i will still be around when they raise rates, let alone mr. draghi. be 1994, the last time the bank diverged -- cutting rates. many, on a divergent path many a month? ,ome say the fed could cut rate hiking rates, before the ecb raises rates again. i think we are penciling in next onends that the happens in 2019 -- mark: well before the ecb cuts rates? kit: by the nature of this cycle, if you think that the u.s. economy will start at the point where there is no spare labor, the rate of growth picks up, so inflation tries to pick up and rates go up, and that is how you create an economic cycle. the clocks do, start at that poin

simon kennedy joins us. simon, good to see you. what are the trends that are shaped 2015?to see prevail next year? we wouldople thought see this big divergence and central banks. we pretty much had that only in the last few days. higher.hed by the fed the first rate hike has gone well for them. ecb,e same time, the jumping in japan are on the -- the ecb, bank of japan, on the easing side. >> i was pretty much of the view would behat things taking cautiously. i am not surprised that this has -- this is going to continue looking ahead. anna: do you still see the policy divergence ahead? the ecb not doing quite so much loosening. the fed talking dovish sleep. do you still see the divergence to trade around? we needit is something to keep weary of. we have to be aware that these two regions have different dynamics going on. they have to manage their own economies. that is the case. anna: simon, yet been writing -- howspite the fed hike jpmorgan tracks the average rates as desperate average rates of developed markets. rates of developed markets. and --bank of america they have

simon kennedy, find me a good book on cricket, i still don't get it. we will leave it at that.ve you in this hour, markets are plunging, futures just collapsed, we see yields come in. a new slow here at 6:00 a.m. in new york. west texas, 36.26, the ruble implodes. stay with us. ♪ cannotl and iron ore find a bid this morning as companies and government search for a plan. the russian ruble moments ago tests to 70 levels. there is little to no growth. in this hour, sir martin sorrell's on the end of the conglomerate. we consider not a hard landing but a new mediocre landing. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." francine, moments ago we saw markets really unravel. vonnie: yes, -- yes, we are looking at commodities but currencies are playing out for the moment. it all ties back to oil. tom: we will get that through in our data check. right now, friday's first word news. >> thanks, tom. negotiators in paris are getting another day to work out a global warming agreement. the climate change conference had been scheduled to amd today. making deeper -- two end today

simon kennedy wrote a great piece on the bloomberg terminal.output gap is the difference economy'se world trend rate and its actual expansion. it is so different. the last time we did this it was too soon to raise rates. are we thinking about a reversal which is kind of what larry summons was -- summers was intimating. mike: it is the question of the day. will they or will they not? based on all of these arguments. stay with us on bloomberg, because we will cover every aspect of the fed rate decision from europe to the united states to asia. tomorrow, complete coverage of decision live beginning at 1:00 p.m. in new york, 6:00 p.m. in london. i am michael mckee. i will be with tom keene for that. you are watching "surveillance" ♪ francine: welcome back. this is bloomberg "surveillance" . i'm francine lacqua in london with michael mckee in new york. looking at gorgeous pictures of hong kong. michael and i think that -- he's gone to hong kong to break the news. chem china chairman is meeting with syngenta today. first, let's get to first word news