simon watkins is an independent oil analyst and author. hejoins me now. interesting, whenever they have these 0pec meetings, the anticipation production cards tend to cause the price to rise and in some cases quite significantly, and thenit some cases quite significantly, and then it falls back slightly. why is that? -- then it falls back slightly. why is that? —— production cuts. then it falls back slightly. why is that? -- production cuts. there is a spike because of the announcement, but the announcement is worked out to be very much meaningless. then us shale producers increase production to avail themselves of profits above $40 per barrel. how important is a high praise for saudi arabia, given the saudi aramco, the state owned oil company's the saudi aramco, the state owned oil compa ny‘s flotation? the saudi aramco, the state owned oil company's flotation? that is somewhat part of it. the crown prince has staked his reputation on that. but they need a level of $85 per barrel at least in order to achieve a breakeven budget price, because the saudis ar