trump got 11% of the vote in sioux county. there were other counties that were comparable as well.religious, most church going counties weren't sold on donald trump in 2016. now, of course the past eight years has been a story politically of evangelical voters and donald trump seeming to form a tight bond. the polling we have had in iowa has donald trump with an outright majority of support of evangelical voters, night and day in 2016. when we look at this map, sioux county is one of the places we look right away. if donald trump is winning by a big margin, it speaks to a total transformation into a core trump faction. if somebody like ron desantis is going to have any chance of pulling any kind of surprise in iowa, this is the kind of county he's targeted. he has to be doing extremely well in sioux county, if he's going to have any chance of making noise. >> priscilla, you have been actually speaking with voters in sioux county, what are they telling you? >> reporter: i'm hearing a lot about former president donald trump. you would think given how poorly he did in 2016 that ron de

sioux county, northwest iowa, this was trump's worst county in the state in 2016, only got 11% of thee's a lot of talk about how since iowa in 2016 trump has built a bond with evangelical voters. the polls show that. we want to show what that looks like in a county like this. conversely, from ron desantis' standpoint, if he's going to pull off any kind of surprise here he's talking about in that interview, he's really going hard after the evangelical vote in iowa. those 42 counties that the evangelical vote has loomed largest in in the last three elections, he's got to show it in those places, like sioux county, those counties that went for cruz, huckabee, santoru here is the statewide result. five counties in 2016 went for marco rubio. not many counties, polk county where the state county is, biggest county in the state, almost 17% of the vote will come from polk county, rubio won it. why was rubio winning these counties, these are counties that tend to be urban, suburban, high concentration of college degrees, higher income. that was rubio's core base in 2016. that is also nikki hal

take a look at sioux county. there are 99 counties in iowa. this one is where trump did the worst.k at the 2016 results, you don't even see trump's name there. he got 11% of the vote in this county. you see ted cruz won it. for donald trump, one of the things we're looking at is this northwest corner. he did terribly here. polls have shown he's made deep inroads with evangelical voters since 2016. is he more competitive? is he winning up here? is he winning big up here? that's going to tell a big part of the story monday night. conversely when you talk about ron desantis and his strategy, he has gone hard after evangelical voters. he's gotten an endorsement from one of the top evangelical leaders in the state. he has campaigned aggressively in the northwest. i think these counties as they start to come in, if desantis is going to pull off any kind of surprise on monday night, he's got to be winning here and probably got to be winning by a pretty solid margin. there's a lot of other areas in the state where he may not do as well. if desantis is going to have a surprise, you might se

. >> that was nbc's priscilla thompson talking to a first-time iowa caucusgoer in sioux county about ump lost the iowa caucuses to senator ted cruz. in that county, an evangelical stronghold, can tell us a lot about why trump's polling in iowa overall is much stronger now. because back in 2016 it was trump's worst performing county in the state. he came in fourth, losing every precinct. largely due to his weak support with evangelical voters. a lot has changed since then, though. i mean, not for the good for trump necessarily. trump has been -- well, he's been married three times. that was before then. but he's been indicted four. owned casinos promoted gambling, had an affair with a porn star. been credibly accused of sexual assault by more than 25 women and bragged about it on tape. some of that happened before that but that's all part of trump's record. and he's noweading the gop field by nearl 30 points with evangelical caucgos according to a new poll from nbc news. and is it because trump has ned his own values with the evangelical community, he hasn't be become more evangelical.

more than anyone else that we heard in talking to caucusgoers and if donald trump can win here in sioux county and wrap up the vote in some of these rural, conservative counties, it could be a sign of how the sta is going to go tonight. andrea? >> garrett, "the new york times" reporting thamp is picking up support from college educated conservatives. in michael bender's story today, he writes quote their surge toward the former president appears to stem largely from a reaction to the current political climate rather than a sudden clambering to join the red cap citizenry of maga. they're different voters and they're going for trump this time. >> yeah. i agree with everything michael said in that piece expect rat rather than calling it a surge, i'd call it a shuffle. their preferred candidate isn't going to be it or the writing on the wall indicates that donald trump is likely the best bet for them. i look at this in the context of marco rubio endorsing donald trump yesterday. rubio was basically the mayor of where i am now in the 2016 cycle. he was the darling of the college educated class of r

>> reporter: yeah, i'm hearing from a lot of folks in sioux county already still undecided but leaninge ron desantis and donald trump, but feel that they know what they're getting with donald trump, take a listen to some of those conversations. >> donald trump's already like did it all, you know, he knows how to do it, he's experienced, so probably just lean towards him. >> will you actually come through desantis, will you? because trump is abrasive enough to push his envelope. you have backed down a couple of times. i am still undecided but i do believe i'm leaning towards trump. >> reporter: and given how poorly trump performed in sioux county in 2016 you might think it's forget ill ground for someone like ron desantis who has tried to court evangelical voters but caucus goers don't feel like they know him as well as they know the former president now. zinhle? >> priscilla thompson in iowa for us, thank you so much, stay warm. >>> newly released video shows a dramatic rescue in florida, first responders racing to rescue a grandmother and small baby from a car sinking into a ditch. gu

ted cruz, marco rubio, ben carson finished first, second and third in sioux county. donald trump wasn't the leader of evangelical voters in 2016. times have changed. take a look at the new "des moines register" poll. evangelical support, donald trump's at 51% among likely caucus goers with evangelical support, ron desantis at 22%. that's how much donald trump -- the inroads he's made with evangelical voters. wolf? >> thank you for that update. we're following all the final pitches of the republican candidates in this first big event for the 2024 white house.

we were looking in the sioux county. donald trump didn't finish in the top three there in 2016. obviously it's unlikely that's the same case tonight. talk about the battle for second place. >> it's an important battle for two reasons. one, ron desantis has made -- he's trying to recreate that ted cruz map. he was trying to dig in to the evangelical vote. visiting all 99 counties. he put everything on iowa. if he comes up in third place, distant third place, it will be difficult for him to get the money needed to continue this campaign. nikki haley is trying to recreate that rubio map from 2016, those orange areas in suburban areas. she's making an electability argument. the suburbs went against trump in the general election in '18 and '20. she's saying i can win those votes. if she ends up in a strong second place, she's going to have a bunch of momentum to make the case why she should continue on. >> it will be an interesting week heading to new hampshire. david, you are magic. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> wolf? >> now you know why he's or political director. he's the be

so places that were looking that fit that mold, a pretty big one in northwest iowa is sioux county. ally in 2016. i'll show you the results. a win for ted cruz, it was donald trump's worst county in iowa in 2012. he only got 11% of the vote right here. so in counties like this we want to see two things we're looking for tonight, number one, has trump improved, the polls certainly suggest he has. maybe the question is how much has trump improved with evangelical voters since 2016. polls indicate this is now a core part of his base. the county like sioux and these other 41 huckabee, santorum cruz counties are going to tell that story. the second story they're going to tell is does ron desantis have a chance of pulling any kind of a surprise here tonight? those counties, those heavily evangelical counties, he's gone after the evangelical vote hard. he's gotten endorsement from the sort of leader of the evangelical movement, political movement in iowa. he has got to be making inroads in those conditions if he's going to make any kind of a surprise tonight. the other kind of county, jose,

still remaining to be seen, we're sitting at 29% in sioux county. is the kind of county that desantis wants to be getting a pad over nikki haley. again, this is a good number out of sioux for ron desantis. we're waiting -- we only got a sliver more out of lyon county. this is the kind of county -- he's coming in second. if the margin stays like this, 12-9 for second place, that's not what desantis needs at all. we need to wait for more vote to come in right there. as we check in, 37% state-wide right now. there's a difference there of 629 votes between haley and desantis that equate to 1.3%. so, again, population centers, haley wants to build up a gap between herself and desantis. and desantis, especially in the north western part of the state, but really throughout the state. all of these counties that went huckabee, santorum, cruz, he'll take any wins he can get. but he needs a pad in all these counties over haley. this is a close race for second place. i think you've been talking a little bit about this. we're also settling into a pattern here may

sioux county, ben carson, donald trump not among the top three in these heavily evangelical counties. that is not what we expect this time. "the des moines register" poll has donald trump with the majority of evangelical support. so, that could look very different. while we have 2016 up here, let me give you one more comparison here. nikki haley is running a campaign -- i think jeff zeleny said this -- a little like the marco rubio model. it's hard to tell because rubio and trump are both red. you can see marco rubio won in des moines, in ames where iowa state university is, iowa city, davenport, these urban/suburban areas is where rubio did well. a very strong third place. not coincidentally. that is where joe biden, he won six counties out of the 99 in the 2020 election. a lot of them were those very same areas, dana, where marco rubio did well in 2016. that is where nikki haley wants to pick up a lot of votes. >> so fascinating. thank you for showing us that. we'll talk to dave kochle, a veteran republican here in iowa a little more about that very point, john. thank you so much. i

sioux county, this was donald trump's worst county in iowa in 2016.don't even see him listed in the top three. he got 11% here in 2016. there was a lot of resistance to donald trump among evangelicals when he first became a candidate, and now a lot has changed in the last eight years, and he went from 11% and jumped to 34% and won the county against desantis. this is the exact kind of county desantis was going hard for in iowa. he got lots of evangelical endorsements, and again, he got 31% here. he wanted more out of counties like this, much more out of counties like this. he didn't want to do a second place, he wanted second place that was not 30 points behind trump. and nikki haley, the concentration of her support in areas like johnson county that have lots of college graduates, suburban areas and cities in iowa, independent voters, and you saw for instance, polk county, she finished third here, and that was one of the better showings. and then here outside of des moines, and the problem for haley and going forward, this could be a big issue for he

let me play a sioux county, iowa, evangelical voter and a trump voter and then a nikki haley voter. >u know, god picks unusual people to do great works. i think he's picking trump for a great work in our name. >> the evangelical christians have bought -- and by the way, i consider myself one -- have come to the point where they believe that donald trump is speaking their kind of issues. they think they need somebody that can take on the, quote, libs, so they've sold out. >> how did we get here? >> to that last point, it's much more than owning the libs. it's much bigger than that. this relationship tells us less about trump and much more about who evangelicals think they are. i think that is the bigger vision here that is becoming really nakedly exposed. it is this claim that this country is theirs, that they are the rightful owners of this country. as their numbers shrink -- they make up 14% of the country right now, but they are accustomed to being sort of the majority political demographic power in the country. as those numbers have shrunk, we are seeing this desperate move here. i

i'm fascinated by sioux county. donald trump came in fourth place. if he turns things around in this area, these counties in the northwest, making it close with ron desantis or winning the counties is a blow out kind of night for donald trump, watch that amongst all the other things we're watching in the coming hours. >> like your zoom in ability there. >> for donald trump, the key to victory could be convincing voters who are skeptical of him last time around, how trump is expanding beyond his blue dollar base next. >>> the cnn presidential town hall l live from newew hampshir tomorrrrow night a at 9:00 on n. >>> welcome back, i'm kasie hunt in des moines. it is caucus day here in iowa. and with the final polling in, it's becoming a little clearer, entirely clear almost, just who is making up the candidates voter bases. among the highlights, former president donald trump firming up support with the state's influential evangelicals and college-educated conservatives. nikki haley bringing in support from independents and crossover democrats. let's brin

in the state or the most resistant, some of the most resistant to him back in 2016, including sioux countyump's worst county in iowa in 2016, he got 11% of the vote here. look at that, he wins it by double digits tonight, from 11, to 45%, he jumped 34 points in this county. this county, and so many others, you know, there are 42 counties in iowa. it went from mike huckabee, who won the evangelical vote in 2000, and it went from nick santorum who won the evangelical vote in 2012, one of the state, and it went for dead cruz in 2016 over. trump cruz won the evangelical vote, won the state. 42 counties fit that criteria. trump swept all 42 of those counties. that won't he has with evangelical voters, it has really form after the 2016 i will caucuses. you really see what it's turned into eight years later in these results. and as you mentioned, this is two records, the previous best margin of the republican caucus was 12 points, 1988, bob dole, that walmarts. and the 51% that is fully ten points higher than the previous higher voter on the republican side and i, what it was george w. bush back

i do agree, like northwest iowa is a heavy evangelical, i would add sioux county as well, heavy on evangelicalsmp also does well with evangelicals, desantis has been courting that vote. you look at those urban counties, nikki haley would be expected to run strong in those counties. those are the counties that marco rubio won, he won five counties in 2016. not enough to win the caucuses but especially if she runs up the vote in the urban counties to have the -- meet the goal of doing well in iowa. >> john: and if 2016 is any indication, keep an eye on calhoun county. percentages out of that one county mirrored what happened statewide pretty accurately. great to talk to you. >> sandra: good stuff, john. as we have seen in public displays, president biden sometimes loves to tout his close relationship with his former boss, president obama. is there a growing divide over biden's 2024 campaign strategy. >> john: the migrant crisis impacting cities coast to coast, including deep blue sanctuary cities where more and more people are getting fed up. next, whether the border will sink the president with

take a look perhaps at sioux county right here where donald trump not even in the top three, how did that turn out in 2024? donald trump winning by 14 points over ron desantis. this was an area desantis and his team spent a lot of time working on. a lot of visits. a lot of ground operations. donald trump swinging in a major way. the evangelicals in 2016 not totally sold on donald trump this time around. there's not a question anymore. evangelicals 53% went to donald trump, 27% to ron desantis. the reality is this, whether it's conservatives or moderates, suburbs, rural, donald trump at least when it comes to iowa is dominant in the republican party, at least in these caucuses. >> he really is, phil, thank you so much for that. our team is back, what is so remarkable, doug, is the resurrection of donald trump since january 6th. the fact that you had even the people closest to him saying this is going to be your legacy. we know that, by the way, from what they said to jack smith in this investigation unless you change this. he didn't. he stuck by the lie and look at this domination. >>

he finished at 11%, his worst county was in deeply religious sioux county. was a huge problem for donald trump. expand that statewide. of the 99 counties in iowa, there are 42 of them that voted mike huckabee in 2008, rick santorum in 2012 and ted cruz in 2016. those three candidates all won the evangelical vote. those three candidates all won the caucuses. those counties were critical to ted cruz winning in 2016. the question here for trump s how many of those has he won over? how many inroads has he made with evangelical christian voters? the question for ron desantis who is trying to get into second, trying to have a surprise night tonight, he's really targeted evangelical voters. how many of those 42 huckabee/khan tropical storm/cruz counties can desantis win? i'll give you a sample here. take a look here, winnebago county 2016, trump finished third. this was a huckabee/santorum/cruz county. this was cruz's best county in the state. trump got buried here. they're small, rural, generally all over the state where desantis has to overperform if he's going t

i just circled a county, sioux county, northwest iowa, one of the most republican in the country, deeply religious, heavily evangelical. this was donald trump's worst county of all 99 in iowa, it was his worst county in the 2016 caucuses. he got 11% of the vote. ted cruz won it, and that was a big reason why donald trump didn't win iowa in 2016. it was the evangelical vote. he did okay. he got 22% with evangelicals in 2016. ted cruz out did him, out organized him. ted cruz got 34% of the evangelical vote. that's why cruz won iowa in 2016. you see rubio was competitive as well. evangelicals were a weak spot for trump in 2016 in the caucuses, so by the way, were the suburbs, you know, suburbs of des moines, a few other places of high concentrations of college graduates, but evangelicals made up 2/3 of the caucus electorate in 2016. you see trump lost by double digits. how does it look right now. this is our most recently poll of caucus goers in iowa among evangelicals. trump, from that 12 point loss in 2016, we've got him up 2-1 over ron desantis, outright majority in our most recent poll.

the other shot was in sioux county. you have the split screen. its way appear in the northwest. z won that county eight years ago. we will see whether or not donald trump can may be show some advantage. we will see it all filled in. >> did you see in the shot that it looked crowded? i've been here in passed years and it was more crowded. >> in four republicans in 2020 it wasn't much. but 216,187,000. 10 candidates were here in iowa from the republican side. you have a really good turnout. they are saying 150 give or take. if you want to figure out a bellwether, you look at this map in figure 99 counties on the grid. where you put your eyes or attention. we found this county right here, calhoun. the reason we point to that is look where ted cruz finished. trump at 24.5. you see that? now you come out light and they match pretty much 27.5 to 24.5 from eight years ago. can i show you something else? do we have time for it? >> what do these buttons do? >> i want to show you. give me a second. so far you are good. let me go here. the reason i am pointing this out, it is really hard to

up in the northwest corner of the state, counties like sioux county, donald trump was there. t ron desantis is hoping will help him in the polls. nikki haley has spent a lot of time in the cities and suburbs, places like des moines and davenport. that was marco rubio's country last time around. she's hoping this is where nikki haley's momentum begins to kick in and you get those caucus-goers. trump has to overperform what he did everywhere, and he's well positioned to do that and one reason why, jon, here's an interesting fact. there's 100,000 more republicans in the state of iowa than there were eight years ago. the trump team is convinced that many, if not most of them are maga republicans. >> jonathan: rick will make his way back to the studio to join the rest of the powerhouse round table. we'll be right back. join the rest of the powerhouse round table. we'll be right back. (vo) explore the world the viking way from the quiet comfort of elegant small ships with no children and no casinos. we actually have reinvented ocean voyages, designing all-inclusive experiences for t

meanwhile, sioux county is one spot we are watching, that's where trump from the worst in 2016. partly because of its high share of evangelicals. nbc's priscilla thompson is there for us right now. welcome to you, my friend. what are voters saying about how they feel this time around? >> yeah, alex. there is no question that trump 's popularity in su county has grown, but a number of caucus goers that i've spoken to say they are still undecided between trump and desantis, and given how poorly trump performed in su county in 2016, you might think it would be fertile ground for ron desantis, who really has made an attempt to go after those evangelical voters, pouring so many resources into this state. but on speaking to voters, they're saying they're not sure that they know ron desantis, that they feel like they do know what they're getting with donald trump. they like it. take a listen. >> i think ron is a good leader to, but i don't really know much about him yet, because he's been the governor of florida. we have seen four years of donald trump. >> looking around everybody, it

it's sioux county in northwest iowa. this is a deeply, deeply religious county.16. is it enough for trump to be winning in sioux county tonight? if desantis is going to have any chance at any kind of a surprise tonight, this is the kind of county where he's got to perform very strong. again, he's gone so hard after evangelical voters. we have the evangelical leader endorsing him. the pink color here, these are the counties that went for marco rubio in 2016. these are high population counties. polk county, where des moines is. dallas county, just to the west of it, big suburban county. trump not doing well there. rubio's coalition in 2016 in a lot of ways resembles nikki haley's right now, college degrees, higher income, more independent. rubio was able to take that and win these five counties and come close statewide. how is nikki haley doing? is she winning it? how is she doing in polk county? how about johnson county? this is the most democratic county in the state. it's where the university of iowa is. again, trump didn't do well here. this was a gold mine for

take the northwest corner of the state, sioux county, donald trump actually came in fourth in that countymath, that's how he runs close, but, of course, as we've discussed, it's going to be hard to beat donald trump. the state looks different, and there's a lot more republicans in the state than there were eight years ago, and many of them, if not most of them, are trump republicans. >> rhiannon: maryalice, we have to, of course, look ahead. january 23rd after iowa, just eight days is new hampshire. so, how are the voters and issues different between these two states? >> reporter: republican voters in new hampshire generally seen as a little bit more moderate with that libertarian streak. it's the live free or die state. so, some of those cultural issues that ron desantis has championed, the fact that he's signed that six-week abortion ban in florida, how he talks about taking on corporations and schools over gender issues, those issues don't really land the same in new hampshire. both candidates, though -- all the candidates, i should say really, of course, eyeing the 40% of new hampshir

evangelical and church going in the state were some of the most resistant to him back in 2016 including sioux countygits tonight from 11 to 45%. he jumped 34 points in this county. this county and so many others. 42 counties in iowa that went from mike huckabee, rick santorum, won the state and went for ted cruz in 20126 over trump. 42 counties fit that criteria. trump swept all 42 of those counties, so that bond he has with evangelical voters he formed after and shatters two records. pat dole, and 58% 10 points higher that was george w. bush back in 2000. bush of course did go onto win the nomination. >> if anyone thinks their vote doesn't count, johnson county wants to have a word with you. steve kornacki, one question before i let you go. ron desantis he's been losing in the polls over the last couple of polls by the des moines register, he's been losing steam i should say. where in the state was doing better than expected? >> i don't know doing better than expected as much as haley doing worse. couple of examples here were -- i'll show you again, just go back into dallas county haley was suppose

heavily evangelical areas, the areas like sioux county. 's where ron desantis has to do very well. look to the cities and suburbs to look for nikki haley. look in johnson county, iowa city, university of iowa. those are the places any kind of anti-trump vote, if it exist, will materialize. robin? >> all right, rick. we're going to our correspondents on the ground tracking nikki haley and ron desantis as they attempt to gain ground on donald trump. eva pilgrim has the latest. good morning, eva. >> reporter: good morning. we are at nikki haley headquarters. they're setting up for tonight. haley is confident she'll have a strong showing in iowa. we've been on the campaign trail with her all weekend. the weather has been a real hurdle. we saw semis in ditches on icy roads across the state. while she did have a cancel a few events, haley determined to make her final call of the caucus appearing at the majority of events reminding people in a head to head with president biden, current polls show she is the only candidate that beats him by a wide

the one county for desantis now is sioux county. ry conservative county right out here, south dakota and nebraska if you go this way and over or this way and down. very conservative rural county. again, 30% of the vote. let's see where we go. this is what happened in 2016. this was cruz and trump in the rural areas. something like this. and cruz won, trump was second, and went on to new hampshire. this is what desantis needs to do everywhere. you see it ear, but you come out here and it's mostly trump. let's take a peek. where is desantis running second? you see all the counties where we have votes. so trump is winning, in most of the places trump is winning, desantis is running second. so it's a version of trump in 2016 except trump's on top and buy more. that is his hold on the party. if trump and cruz were battling for the conservative vote, the evangelical vote, the rural vote, far more vote in 2016, now it is donald trump's. and ron desantis is trying to pull second place on. that let me pull out, i hit the wrong button, pull th

sioux city, woodbury county, donald trump won this county in 2016 eight years ago. priscilla forsyth is one of the people drawn to the new insurgent outsider donald trump. tired of the tweets, she is for nikki haley. that's what makes this area a big test for haley. listen why. >> there was always something about desantis i didn't like, and i couldn't put my finger on it. i liked the way haley came across in the first debate. usually to me the debates don't make a big difference, but they kind of did this time. >> you hear that a lot, erin. we heard that a lot over the last five months from women in iowa who are warming to haley, although priscilla last night was trying to get information about caucusing from the campaign. they raised serious doubts about the organization, she couldn't get the information she needed. now let's come here to the des moines suburbs. polk county. next to it dallas county. suburban moms here. if nikki haley is going to succeed, suburban women who turned away from trump in 2018, 2020 and 2022, we'll introduce you toe betsy and jocelyn. bo

the lighter gray counties, the lighter gray around des moines and ames, around sioux city, cedar fallsese are not big cities like new york, not big cities like philadelphia, but those are your urban areas. a lot of new people in the suburbs. that's the key. if we're going to see nikki haley pull off any kind of a surprise, it will be there. if desantis is a surprise, it's because he competes like cruz did for rural evangelicals. >> we know people are allowed to register throughout the day if they want republicans to vote here. so obviously trump sounding confident. but as basil is pointing out, he is worried that with the lead coming out in the poll, people are a little lackadaisical, they don't actually show up tomorrow. is that a reasonable concern when you look at the enthusiasm of his voters? >> well, his people and enthusiasm, his voter far more enthusiastic than anybody else's by far. it tilts more rural, and it tilts older. do you want to get in your car and risk something happening to you if you're older, driving 15, 20 minutes to the polling place. it brings up the interesting

he is gone all in on iowa visiting all 99 counties, and notable because about an hour ago, the siouxs the paper on record in this area, actually endorsed ron desantis, saying his policies mirrored those of trump, except he does not have the baggage that the former president has. so, a lot of those folks i talked about in sue county said they are still weighing a ron desantis or a donald trump, but they feel like they know what they're getting with donald trump, and they believe he will do what he says he's going to do. alex? >> that's interesting. okay, priscilla. thanks for sharing. and it bears repeating, tonight at nine eastern, we're going to get exclusive new poll results from nbc news and the des moines register. msnbc's katie tur and steve kornacki will have live coverage for us. but next, to borrow from the late tim -- florida, florida, florida, how it went from a swing state to a mega maga one. mega maga one. arthritis pain relief gel, which penetrates deep to target the source of pain with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medicine directly at the source. voltaren, the joy of