sirjohn curtis for— conservative recovery. sirjohn curtis for the _ conservative recovery.ank l curtis for the moment, thank you very much, and our election hub. alsojohn will be back with us later as we keep you updated with the two by—elections that are being counted, we will of course expect those by—elections results to make headlines in the morning. and the economy features heavily on the majority of the front pages. �*uk slips into recession' reads the eye. the latest figures estimate that gross domestic product — that's a key measure of economic activity — fell twice in a row between july and december. it's the third time that the uk has fallen into recession in the past 25 years. the financial times headline reads "britain's slide into recession creates another big election hurdle for the prime minister" as we await those results in kingswood and wellingborough. the guardian warns rishi sunak against tax cuts , claiming the country has endured the longest sustained fall in living standards in 70 years. the daily telegraph speculcates the chancellor will shelve plans

months. 0k, sirjohn, stay with _ coming weeks and months. 0k, sirjohn, stay with us. _ coming weeksith us. back to hannah miller who has the winning candidate with her, i believe. iamjoined by i am joined by their winning candidate, now mp, damien egan. how are you feeling? it candidate, now mp, damien egan. how are you feeling?— how are you feeling? it hasn't sunk in yet- — how are you feeling? it hasn't sunk in yet. we _ how are you feeling? it hasn't sunk in yet. we have - how are you feeling? it hasn't sunk in yet. we have been - sunk in yet. we have been knocking _ sunk in yet. we have been knocking on doors, speaking to people — knocking on doors, speaking to people and you are never quite sure _ people and you are never quite sure how — people and you are never quite sure how it is going. but it has — sure how it is going. but it has been _ sure how it is going. but it has been a really positive campaign. we've tried to run on issues _ campaign. we've tried to run on issues that— campaign. we've tried to run on issues that people care about, trying — issues that people care a

let's bring in our polling guru, sirjohn curtis.newsroom — it seems that labour or confident at least on they are in the south gloucestershire? i they are in the south gloucestershire? ~ u, gloucestershire? i think we can be re gloucestershire? i think we can be pretty clear _ gloucestershire? i think we can be pretty clear that _ gloucestershire? i think we can be pretty clear that the - gloucestershire? i think we can be pretty clear that the labourl be pretty clear that the labour party have managed to win this seat. what will be interesting to see is how well they won. but just to underline to see is how well they won. butjust to underline the significance of this — if the next general election were to be fought on the current boundaries and kingswood won't exist without a general election is actually fought — if that were the case, then kingswood is one of those seats where the swing required 11% is only a little less from the swing it labour would require to get an overall majority at a general election under the old boundarie

professor sirjohn curtice, thank _ doing so. professor sirjohn curtice, thank you - doing so.n team. welcome. for did it go wrong? good morninu. welcome. for did it go wrong? good morning- the _ welcome. for did it go wrong? good morning. the national— welcome. for did it go wrong? good morning. the national victory - welcome. for did it go wrong? good morning. the national victory is - welcome. for did it go wrong? good morning. the national victory is not| morning. the national victory is not looking good for us this morning. what came up on the doorstep time and again, the cost of living crisis, particularly the town centre came up, it impacted and the lakes, fantastic facility and it has had a great impact. we've got a blueprint in northamptonshire on what can be done, if you look at our neighbours northampton, they've got £130 million of investment for a better project, there is a big new leisure centre project, there is a regeneration of market square and all with the aim of creating a vibrant town centre and we need to get some investment in there and improve the town c

sirjohn, | for the moment, thank you very much. shortly, and you can't stay with us here on bbc news and our life page. this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. in september 2014, 43 students disappeared from passenger buses in the mexican town of iguala, guerrero. translation: they were in police custody, - and then they're just gone. the federal government took charge of the case. police started finding many places with clandestine graves. it was just horrifying. just three months after the disappearance, the government announced they had solved the case. we were analysing the evidence. it wasjust not matching the official story. shouting protests erupted across mexico. a team of independent experts began their own investigation, and the government case starts to unravel.

sirjohn, for the moment, you're with us draw— uk.ack to the wellingborough count now and speak to harry farley. harry, what's the mood on the ground with you? harry, what's the mood on the ground with ou? harry. what's the mood on the ground with ou? with you? good evening, nikki, the countin: is with you? good evening, nikki, the counting is going — with you? good evening, nikki, the counting is going on _ with you? good evening, nikki, the counting is going on behind - with you? good evening, nikki, the counting is going on behind me, . counting is going on behind me, obviously the conservatives defending that more than 16,000 majority. peter bone was suspended, voted out by mp is facing accusations of bullying and being sexually inappropriate with staff, he denied these challenges and that's why i am here this evening. shadow environment minister and the lead campaign on the ground, mr perkins, you've overturned bigger majorities than this in recent by elections. really disappointed if you don't went to light. always disappointed

but sirjohn obviously didn't want loads of kids running around the place.—a—hoop. but concern of coming under attack grew when barrow was bombed in 191“. the barrow blitz is probably the most sort of frightening moment that the tate men had in relation to the possibility that if barrow was being bombed, then this area was not quite as safe as they had perhaps hoped. when the war ended, all was finally able to be revealed. newspapers picked up on it very quickly, particularly because muncaster was the sort of furthest place from london where anything was stored. they interviewed some of the people that had been here for five or six years — londoners who suddenly found themselves in the middle of the countryside. was it all worth it, do you think? it has to be worth it. had any of the pictures remained in london, you know, the chances are they would have been very badly damaged. muncaster castle played a very significant part in the second world war in a way that we all enjoy now, because we can go to the tate collection and then see the paintings, which were

and the referendum party there on 13%, so again, thatis party there on 13%, so again, that is what sirjohnp by19.5% and last election. and there we go, labour up by 19.5% and that drop in the conservatives, and the referendum party up 13%, and just finally, here is the swingometerfor you, 28.5% swingometerfor you, 28.5% swing conservative to labour. sir keir starmer will be happy with both those by—election victories. with both those by-election victories— victories. yes, there is absolutely _ victories. yes, there is absolutely no - victories. yes, there is absolutely no doubt i victories. yes, there is i absolutely no doubt that victories. yes, there is - absolutely no doubt that labour will be delighted at pulling off two very remarkable successes. and to the 19% increase in their support in wellingborough in particular is a highly creditable performance. but in the end it is just performance. but in the end it isjust simply performance. but in the end it is just simply overshadowed by the extent to which the electorate have rejected the conservatives in these by—elections, down by 21 p

sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at strathclyde university, has been following the by electionsning us, you have been up all night and you are still going. let me ask you the big question. do you think these results suggest that keir starmer�*s labour party will secure a victory at the next general election?— secure a victory at the next general election? these results certainly do _ general election? these results certainly do nothing _ general election? these results certainly do nothing to - general election? these results certainly do nothing to cast - certainly do nothing to cast any doubt on that proposition that didn't exist beforehand. it has long looked, really ever since the downfall of liz truss backin since the downfall of liz truss back in the autumn of 2022, that labour had an excellent chance of winning a general election. we have now seen overnight two very substantial swings from conservatives to labour. they are on top of substantial swings in by—elections in the second half of last year, and therefore in a sense the evidence is all of a sense the evidence is a

earlier i spoke with polling guru sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclydetion, just reflected in your previous contribution, is the fact that it does now look as though reform uk are able to win a notable share of the vote. we know from the polling data that a lot of that is coming from people who voted conservative in 2019. not all of them will necessarily vote conservative if reform went on the ballot paper, but it is pretty clear that reform will do more damage to the conservatives than they are to labour. and that is not going to be enough for reform themselves to win a seat, but it does increase the risk to conservative mps that they will lose their seat to labour, particularly if you bear in mind that is in the two constituency reform predecessor, the brexit party, did not stand in 2019 because they stood down and all the seats the conservatives were defending. richard tice, the current reform leader, has made it clear thatis reform leader, has made it clear that is not going to happen. the evidence of recent opinion polls, that reform are now taking

but i'm joined by sirjohn hayes, conservative member of for parliament, south holland and the deepings i say, you know, these are official home office documents. they lay out very clearly the limits of our capability . these aren't capability. these aren't political points . these are political points. these are simple numerical points of what the position was. and yet the prime minister and actually the prime minister and actually the prime minister and actually the prime minister before him keep promising they'll stop the boats, but they won't. will they? >> well, the biggest existential crisis facing this country as you've implied, nigel, is mass migration . ian. yeah. and the migration. ian. yeah. and the reason for that is the pressure it places on public resources, but also on the difference it makes to the character of the nafion makes to the character of the nation , communities being nation, communities being altered. having to altered. people having to compete for jobs houses compete for jobs and for houses and road infrastructure, unable to additional to cope with the additio

but sirjohn obviously didn't want loads of kids running around the place. it, do you think? it has to be worth it. had any of the pictures remained in london, you know, the chances are they would have been very badly damaged. muncaster castle played a very significant part in the second world war in a way that we all enjoy now, because we can go to the tate collection and then see the paintings, which were, for six years, sitting on the in the crates in this very room. ian haslam, bbc news. on breakfast we've been following the story of frank rothwell, who broke his own world record to become the oldest man to row the atlantic. this weekend, he was given a hero's welcome when he returned to a packed house at oldham athletic, where he's club chairman. let's remind ourselves of his journey. there are few challenges you can do in the world which are world class. but this is a real challenge. i'm 73 years old. i'll be the oldest person to have rowed any ocean ever when i complete this. it's a bit more windy than we've had it before. we'll make 25 knots today. y

joining us now is sirjohn hayes, actions at pro tests.and and the deepings. and of course, former home minister as well, home office minister as well, sir john, thank so much for sir john, thank you so much for your this afternoon. do you your time this afternoon. do you think powers announced today think the powers announced today go . go far enough. >> i think it's a really important step today. and what we've seen over recent times is peaceful protests . us turning to peaceful protests. us turning to something quite different . no something quite different. no one is against, by the way, in a free society, people are having the power, the right indeed to protest. but when those protests in involved climbing on damaging war memorials, stopping ambulances, going about their business, ruining the lives of law abiding people, that's just going too far. and the government have acted. and they're right to act in the way they're right to act in the way they have. is this a reaction solely to the excesses we've seen at some pro—palestine prote

and sirjohn hayes, given asylum in this country.ome office minister, says he's writing james cleverly today writing to james cleverly today to seek urgent review of the to seek an urgent review of the asylum rules. i mean , the asylum rules. i mean, the pressures on the home secretary today isn't it? >> is . and but i can only >> it is. and but i can only sort of, i think, repeat what i said earlier, where the two are not necessarily linked, you can come into the country by fleeing a persecution prosecution if you do come into the country because you seek asylum. if you need to seek asylum. if you're afghanistan, you're from afghanistan, obviously and obviously there's a reason and good that. we have obviously there's a reason and goocscheme that. we have obviously there's a reason and goocscheme in that. we have obviously there's a reason and goocscheme in place we have obviously there's a reason and gooc scheme in place now. ave obviously there's a reason and gooc scheme in place now. that that scheme in place now. that doesn't ne

hs2's executive chairman , sirjohn thompson, chairman, sir john thompson, says this section alone willalone will cost more than £66.5 billion, far exceeds the original budget of a mere . £44.5 billion. well of a mere. £44.5 billion. well joining us now to discuss this in the studio as our political correspondent, katherine forster. catherine, this is as old as the hills. this story now it's £100 billion and counting . it's £100 billion and counting. it's a white elephant, not a single passenger has moved. will it ever start? >> well , it it ever start? >> well, it sounds from what these mps are, are saying that we've ended up in the worst of all possible worlds. >> because, of course , remember, >> because, of course, remember, this was a project conceived under under labour, championed by consecutive conservative mps, supposed to go in a y shape. london euston to birmingham, then in two wise, one to leeds, one to manchester. connect our great northern cities actually not to each other, but to london. the line to leeds was cancelled a couple of years ago , cancelled a couple of years a

ellwood then replied immediately, replied almost immediately, asking john hayes to delete asking sirjohn various right wingers across different , different strands of thought, all ellwood . all criticising tobias ellwood. and i think for me this shows that the row, uh, often is about not just the substance of the issue, but also about personalities involved. so i think that there's a of think that there's a lot of tory mps who, frankly, don't really like tobias after his like tobias ellwood after his his which was his video last summer, which was very as very, very very seen as very, very favourable to the taliban regime in afghanistan . and so i think in afghanistan. and so i think this lee anderson this shows how the lee anderson route isn't just confined to the pros merits strengths pros and merits and strengths and lee anderson's and weaknesses of lee anderson's comments. it's also about other things. as things. so it's serving as displacement activity for a lot of within the of tension within the conservative party that's bubbung bubbling over right now. >> yes. and scoop really >>

that's your analysis, and we speak as many people do, to professor sirjohn curtice looking at the veryrvative to labour there is another one who switched to reform uk. ~ �* , ., ., , , uk. well, it's not what the numbers su: est. if uk. well, it's not what the numbers suggest- if you _ uk. well, it's not what the numbers suggest. if you look _ uk. well, it's not what the numbers suggest. if you look at _ uk. well, it's not what the numbers suggest. if you look at the - uk. well, it's not what the numbers suggest. if you look at the vote... i suggest. if you look at the vote... i'm just making you aware of his analysis because he is as you know very widely respected. i’m analysis because he is as you know very widely respected.— very widely respected. i'm not dis-rutin very widely respected. i'm not disputing it- — very widely respected. i'm not disputing it. i'm _ very widely respected. i'm not disputing it. i'm not— very widely respected. i'm not disputing it. i'm not disputing| very widely respected. i'm not i disputing it. i'm not disputing his interpretation. i'm just saying the to

we'rejoined now by sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde.hose two by—elections and what they signify. impression of those two by-elections and what they signify.— and what they signify. there are three big headlines, _ and what they signify. there are three big headlines, naga. - and what they signify. there are three big headlines, naga. the| and what they signify. there are - three big headlines, naga. the first is that they confirm that the conservatives are still in deep, deep electoral trouble. the 21 point drop in their support in kingswood is in line with that 19, 20 point drop they have an opinion piles. the drop they have an opinion piles. the drop in wellingborough is actually the biggest loss that conservatives have had in a post—war by—election. it could be the circumstances regarding peter bone a's downfall and his replacement by his partner might have added to the woes there but this morning we are still looking at a government that at the moment is staring defeat in the face at the next general election. headline number two is

more complicated in the wake of these two by elections, hasn't it just, sir john, as always, just, sirjohn have. i think we should. yeah, let's find out. >> hello. good morning. welcome to your latest gb news weather update with me, annie, from the met office. will be some update with me, annie, from the met o'rain. will be some update with me, annie, from the met 0' rain through/ill be some update with me, annie, from the met 0' rain through thise some heavy rain through this afternoon. and evening, but afternoon. and the evening, but there be some dry there will also be some dry spells this weekend and it is staying it's staying very mild, so it's a mild start out there. there is some mist fog across eastern some mist and fog across eastern areas that should lift and clear to leave some sunshine across eastern areas, particularly through stay through today. it should stay largely much of the largely dry through much of the morning and into the afternoon. here, well. however, across here, as well. however, across the west we'll see drizzly rain, particularly across the coasts and hills, a