professor sirjohn curtice, a _ months ago. professor sirjohn curtice, a fascinating _ months ago. ent months ago. professor sirjohn - curtice, a fascinating assessment of a changing, moving, politicalscene. it will be interesting to see what when he 22 brings us. if we don't have a chance to meet you before then, had a good christmas and a happy christmas to you. —— professor sirjohn curtice, who is probably not had sleep in the last 24 probably not had sleep in the last 2a hours! thank you to him. so for the first time since 1832... key date in british political history. north shropshire had in every election until last night voted for a conservative mp. 0ur political correspondent alex forsyth has been out speaking to voters there finding out what made so many of them change their mind. as the sun came up, north shropshire awoke to a new political landscape. liberal democrats, 17,957. cheering this solid tory turf had been shaken. north shropshire! by mid—morning, the lib dem victor had arrived in 0wsworth street to much fanfare. as they celebrated, onlookers contemplated what ha

sirjohn curtice is a political analyst and professor of politics at strathclyde university.is?— for the lib dems is this? this is not uuite for the lib dems is this? this is not quite an _ for the lib dems is this? this is not quite an unprecedented - for the lib dems is this? this is i not quite an unprecedented swing for the lib dems is this? this is - not quite an unprecedented swing but it's a very spectacular one and it's one that underlines the message of the pulse of the last week that the conservatives have suffered quite significant electoral damage in the wake of party gate etc —— polls. a swing of 34% and there is the other one by—election in which the swing from the lib dems has been bigger, that was in christchurch back in 1993. 31 point drop in the conservative vote. we've not seen drops of that scale in conservative support sincejohn drops of that scale in conservative support since john major suffered drops of that scale in conservative support sincejohn major suffered a trio of them between 1992 and 1997, which is not a very happy precedent for the conservat

we can talk now to sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde.companies now all of whom have been doing some kind of polling, asking people about what they think about the events surrounding the alleged gathering, party on the 18th of december and the polling universally makes bad news of the prime minister. so, on the issue which is apparently endowed, which is whether the gathering was a party, the polls suggest that between two thirds and three quarters of people think it was a party, and crucially, that's true of well over a half of those people who voted conservative in 2019. meanwhile, so far as whether or not the rules were being broken in downing street this time last year, which is where the prime minister is still saying that it did not happen, the truth is that between two thirds and three quarters of people think the rules were broken. perhaps what's most waiting for the prime minister is that polls have asked people directly, do you think the prime minister is telling the truth or not? in both cases, around two thirds of people, incl