sirjohn curtice, trying to put behind them. sirjohn curtice. thank— trying to put behind them. you for speaking to | curtice, thank you for speaking to us from strathclyde university. a reminder of the breaking news, the parliamentary standards watchdog has recommended an eight week suspension for the mp chris pincher. we can cross back now to ione wells in our bbc newsroom. i know you have been going through that very lengthy report. what more have you unearthed?— report. what more have you unearthed? , . ., unearthed? there is a section here that is interesting _ unearthed? there is a section here that is interesting about _ unearthed? there is a section here that is interesting about what - unearthed? there is a section here that is interesting about what chris pincher�*s position on this always. it says in respect of the fact of the case which the commission outlined which as we have discussed before it involved groping allegations against two men at the carlton club, it says that mr pincher has apologised to the parties involved saying he is conscious of the effect of the

spoke to the political analyst and professor of politics at strathclyde university, professor sirjohn curtice headline from this is despite the fact the conservatives narrowly managed to hang on to the uxbridge constituency, boris johnson's former seat, the results more broadly confirm that the conservatives are in a supernatural hole as the opinion polls have been suggesting. if you take all three of the by—elections including the one in uxbridge, on average the conservatives show the vote is 25 points down on what they achieved in the seats back in 2019 and that is all with the national opinion polls showing support for the conservatives to be 18 points down on what it achieved in 2019. so the truth is therefore that these elections don't mean the conservatives position looks any worse than it did before yesterday morning but it certainly does not look any better despite that seemingly encouraging average. 50 obvious difficulties for rishi sunak. does it suggest that uxbridge is of any kind of fragility around the labour vote, the border point where keir starmer has an effect sealed with th

live now to our newsroom in westminster and legendary expert on elections and election numbers sirjohn curtice the labour party last performed in this way? labour party last performed in this wa ? ., ., ., this way? you need to go back to the 92-97 _ this way? you need to go back to the 92-97 parliament, - this way? you need to go back to the 92-97 parliament, the l to the 92—97 parliament, the last time that the labour party was able to secure a swing of over 20% in a by—election. the swing in selby at nearly 24% is the second—biggest swing from conservative to labour in postwar by—election history. so there is no doubt that that result at least is a spectacular success for labour and is as every bit as bad as the conservatives feared. but it contrasts sharply with the result in uxbridge, which the conservatives have managed to fend off the labour challenge, even though the seat was much more difficult, statistically, for the conservatives. it seems to be the case that both conservative and labour except that the outcome there was affected by the argument about the proposed extension by the l

we heard from professor sirjohn curtice a bit earlier.k/news. a british man who killed his seriously ill wife in cyprus has been convicted of manslaughter. david hunter suffocated his wife janice at their home near paphos in december 2021, and was tried for murder, but he maintained her death was assisted suicide, and his wife, who had blood cancer, had begged him to end her misery. 0ur correspondent, fiona trott, was in court. the face of a man who feared he was spending the rest of his life in prison. now there is hope, and there is support, too. peter pledged 25, helen pledged £10. it means so much to david. after the hearing, david's old mining friend check to the family fundraising page. he's travelled all the way from northumberland to be here. it was just the usual, hello, give him a hug, and we were both pretty choked up. this was the david hunter he knew. after years down the mine, david and his wife, janice, were enjoying their retirement. they were at their happiest. but inside their home, janice was suffering. she had blood ca

the tories were 18% behind labour in recent polling but, according to pollster sirjohn curtice, theirdown 21% in yesterday's three by—elections. there were some crumbs of comfort, mainly holding on to borisjohnson�*s old seat, uxbridge and south ruislip, disappointing for labour. and the tory chairman was quick to point out that labour had lost its deposit in somerton and frome. but does the rise of the liberal democrat vote there at the same time as the labour one in selby spell double trouble for the conservatives? let's start tonight then with nick in north yorkshire, scene of that 23% swing to labour. bells toll the tranquil rhythm of a summer's day. but in these lanes, a quiet revolution — a victory for labour in tory country. applause a celebratory walk for the leader, introducing his young name sake to the nation. it's the first time ever i have been able to say, well done keir! and the warrior against complacency unable to hide his delight. it's fair to say that when this by—election was called, most people said labour doesn't have a chance to get near a 20,000 tory majority.

thank you. 0ur polling expert, sirjohn curtice, gave us his views on labour failing to take uxbridge.n the labour side we can sit too contrary argument is emerging. 0n the one hand leadership may want to say it is a clear warning. if we start talking about increasing spending and increasing taxes then we are at risk of losing what we have god. 0n the other hand, others will say if enthusiasm for the labour party is so thin that a local issue like this could upend what should have been a successful victory campaign, then maybe there are questions to be asked about what labour are offering. i can see this adding to the debate that is going on inside the labour party about the sense that it should be offering to the electorate. —— stance. the liberal democrats have taken the seat of somerton and frome in somerset from the conservatives. even before the result had been declared, the party had predicted that its candidate, sarah dyke, had won the seat. the liberal democrats leader, sir ed davey, called it a stunning victory and said it showed the party was firmly back in its former west co

live now to the political analyst and professor of politics at strathclyde university, professor sirjohn curticet that the conservatives narrowly managed to hang on the uxbridge constituency, borisjohnson's former hang on the uxbridge constituency, boris johnson's former seat, the results more broadly confirm that the conservatives are indeed in a deep electoral hole as the opinion polls have been suggesting. if you take them all including one in uxbridge, on average, the conservatives shall 20 points down on what the body achieved in these seats back in 2019. that is with the fact that the polls are currently showing support to beat 18 point double conservatives. so the truth is therefore that these elections don't necessarily mean the conservative position looks any worse than it did before yesterday morning but it certainly does not look any better despite that seemingly encouraging result in uxbridge. 50 seemingly encouraging result in uxbridue. :, , , . , uxbridge. so obvious difficulties were rishi sunak. _ uxbridge. so obvious difficulties were rishi sunak. does - uxbridge. so obvious dif

let's talk to sirjohn curtice and i let's talk to sirjohn curtice and get some context and analysis ofue, but i think the party would also have hoped to have been enjoying something of a wider revival given its ability to do well in these constituencies. two other things to pick up on this result, we should acknowledge that by my reckoning this is the best ever performance by a green candidate in a parliamentary by—election are just over 10%, a parliamentary by—election are just over10%, because a parliamentary by—election are just over 10%, because the previous record in norwich north, and, secondly, just to add to labour's disappointment, at least for now, fifth in this by—election. the vote very clearly squeezed by liberal democrats, they did manage to squeeze the labour vote here. i haven't been able to check it out but i am kind of asking myself as labour, fifth in parliamentary by—election at all before? tate labour, fifth in parliamentary by-election at all before? we will let ou by-election at all before? we will let you ponder— by-election at all before? we will let you ponder

i'm joined now from glasgow by election guru professor sirjohn curtice.s not new, but it is will surprising- if — snp. it is not new, but it is will surprising. if we _ snp. it is not new, but it is will surprising. if we go _ snp. it is not new, but it is will surprising. if we go back- snp. it is not new, but it is will surprising. if we go back to - snp. it is not new, but it is will surprising. if we go back to the j surprising. if we go back to the 2010 westminster election, at that point onlyjust over a half of those people who at that point in time were in favour of independence were voting for the snp at that westminster election. the situation which we have experienced in recent years, in the 2021 holyrood election and even who was in favour of independence was voting for the snp, but nobody who was opposed to independence was voting for the snp, thatis independence was voting for the snp, that is a relatively recent development. so the link between the constitution and question and support for the snp is looser than a couple of years ago and per

be even more difficult for him backbenchers than him with his backbenchers than it yeah, and sirjohn curticee three overall, all from the three seats contested, the conservative vote down 21. so therefore does this indicate perhaps a rishi sunak will go long, as the saying is, i that will get an election further away than maybe a test into next spnng? away than maybe a test into next spring? well yeah. >> if i were rishi sunak, i would be holding off on a general election as long as possible. 21% across the country would give labour easily an overall majority. they only need 12% for an overall majority. what rishi sunak is hoping is that if he manages to visibly deliver on those five priorities, which will take a long time, as you say, he'll have to go long, then maybe by sort of late 20, 24, early 20, 25, people will see their mortgage rates reducing again. they'll see the cost of living crisis lessening a little bit and they'll have a reason to vote conservative. the only issue is, i mean, will a slight easing off of a cost of living crisis be a positive enough reason for people to go out

curtice. delighted to say he can join us now . and sirjohn, delighted to say he can join us now .to say he can join us now . and sir john, we're sort of now. and sir john, we're sort of looking at these by elections in in isolation because ultimately by elections don't always tell us what happens at the general election, but they can give us some clues. what were the clues that we learned last night? well you're certainly right. >> we shouldn't be looking to by elections to forecast the outcome of a general election. but we can look at historical precedent. and unfortunately for the conservatives the historical precedent precedents are not very kind to them. well, first of all, there's richard ford was just mentioning the liberal democrats have now gained four seats from the conservatives tvs in this parliament in in three cases, including somerton , from cases, including somerton, from last night at near record breaking swings. the last time the liberal democrats won four seats off the conservatives lives in a parliament was the parliament of 1992 to 1997, which ended in defeat f